MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts


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MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts

  1. 1. MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts MarketTrak's Forecast of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) DJIA graph courtesy of Yahoo! MarketTrak Forecast Summary Last Forecast / Page Update: Thursday, 08/23/07 20:37 MDT Last Closing Market Data Entry: Thursday, 08/23/07 Current Forecast: UP - Stocks should generally move higher over the next few weeks. Current ANO value: 0.000005 ANO value computed seven days ago: 0.000161 (trading model input) Current Trading Model Position: CASH Current UP Probability: 56.81 Percent Notices/Comments: Hi Rich, Welcome back! The trading model is in CASH. The 90-day TBill interest rate increased from Monday's low of 2.85 percent to today's value of 3.71. This increase has will have a negative impact on the broad market behavior. MarketTrak Message Board. Click here to view past model performance. About the Forecast: We use an advanced neural network forecast model and an evolutionary training algorithm to compute 15-day forecasts of the DJIA. A new forecast is computed nightly and the charts are normally updated at 8:00 PM MST. The analyses are based on closing daily market data. Results for the last 165 days are shown in the four charts below. The vertical grid lines are 10 trading days apart. The DJIA actual forward slope in the second chart is computed from a linear least-squares fit of the 15 DJIA values following each data point. The slopes are normalized by dividing by the first DJIA value in the slope calculation. The predicted values of the slope (ANO) are based on a forecast horizon of 15 trading days. The last 15 values of the predicted slope are a forecast of future behavior of the DJIA. A positive slope would indicate a rising market going forward while a negative slope would indicate a falling market. The ANO values are used with our trading model. All trades suggested by the trading model are done at the close. The trading position shown above is the position at the beginning of the session. This forecast when properly combined with other technical and fundamental indicators may help you in your investment decisions. Please read our disclaimer below. Model Results: The results of our model calculations are shown in the four charts below: 8/24/2007 5:09:17 AM
  2. 2. MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts 8/24/2007 5:09:17 AM
  3. 3. MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts Input to the trading model is the ANO value computed seven days ago. The vertical line, labeled DA, in the second chart above is positioned on this date. The different color regions in this chart correspond to the three trading model regions. The third chart above shows the trading positions as calculated using the trading model. Performance of the trading model is shown below: Trading Model Performance Buy and hold return 6.60 percent Trading model return 20.00 percent Days long 107 Days cash 50
  4. 4. MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts Days short 0 The UP probabilities given in the fourth chart reflect the forecast accuracy and are computed from variances in market data and in neural network weights. The value is the probability that the forward slope will be positive. The table below shows the results of calculations using our neural network forecast model. The data in the table were computed by averaging the results of more than 100 networks trained on 4500 days of stock market data. The last 200 trading days were not included in the training so the data presented are blind predictions. Forecast Model Output (Last 15 days) Date DJIA ANO PRB YLD STD 070803 13181.91 0.000108 61.67 0.0291 0.1604 070806 13468.78 0.000447 77.92 0.0774 0.1627 070807 13504.30 0.000532 80.07 0.0836 0.1597 070808 13657.86 0.000365 72.16 0.0605 0.1665 070809 13270.68 0.000236 67.61 0.0455 0.1624 070810 13239.54 0.000339 71.42 0.0574 0.1646 070813 13236.53 0.000127 62.10 0.0306 0.1625 070814 13028.92 0.000161 63.91 0.0356 0.1628 070815 12861.47 0.000230 66.05 0.0421 0.1648 070816 12845.78 0.000205 64.28 0.0372 0.1651 070817 13079.08 0.000215 64.40 0.0378 0.1654 070820 13121.35 0.000163 62.50 0.0329 0.1666 070821 13090.86 0.000078 58.93 0.0232 0.1662 070822 13236.13 -0.000070 53.48 0.0089 0.1664 070823 13235.88 0.000005 56.81 0.0176 0.1664 where: DATE is the date of the data entry, DJIA is the closing DJIA value for the date shown, ANO is the Average Network Output (see our model details), PRB is the probability in percent of seeing an UPWARD forward slope, YLD is the expected daily yield in percent of the DJIA, STD is the standard deviation of the expected yield. Disclaimer: You may use our forecast as long as you totally agree with the following terms and conditions: Our mission is to make our forecast the best available, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or profitability. We provide the forecast on an “as is” and “as available” basis without any warrantee of any kind. Specifically, MarketTrak disclaims any and all warranties, expressed or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability, profitability, and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event shall you hold MarketTrak liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever. You bear all responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions. Nothing in our forecasts should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to take any specific action. Our opinions or comments expressed may change without notice. You determine if and how the forecast is used in your investments. You recognize that past performance does not indicate future results. If these terms and conditions are unacceptable to you, please contact us and we will cancel your account and immediately send you a refund for the unused portion of your subscription. Click here for a complete disclosure of our disclaimer. Site Links: Stock Market Safety Index Links to our favorite sites Contact us Privacy Policy MarketTrak Home Page DJIA seasonal graph Learn about our forecast model Learn about our trading model Subscription renewal
  5. 5. MarketTrak's Stock Market Forecasts View your account information Update your account information Disclaimer Your subscription expires on: Mon Jan 28, 2008 Copyright © 1996-2007 MarketTrak LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8/24/2007 5:09:17 AM