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On Bets and Tests: Entering an
Existing Industry
Ziya G. Boyacigiller
This presentation was created and given by Ziya
Boya...
BETS AND TEST
– MOVING FROM PLAN A TO N...
Entering an Existing Industry
Ref: Getting to Plan B, J. Mullins / R. Komisar
EVOLUTION OF KNOWLEDGE
http://files.posterous.com/jaysteele Roger L. Martin
SUCCESS WITH “PLAN A” IS LIKE CREATING A
WORK OF ART AT FIRST TRY…
EVOLUTION OF CLAY –
INCLUDES TRIAL & ERROR,
TESTING & LEARNING…
Figuring out what customers will buy is a process – not a guess.
FIGURING OUT WHAT CUSTOMERS WANT AND
WILL BUY SOUNDS EASY...
Running out of cash isn’t a cause – it’s a symptom. It’s a symptom or
signal that the company’s business model didn’t work...
GOAL : CREATING A BUSINESS MODEL THAT WORKS
Business Model is the pattern of economic
activity – cash flowing into and out...
THE QUESTIONS YOU CANNOT ANSWER BY LOOKING AT THE
ANALOGS AND ANTILOGS LEAD YOU TO YOUR LEAPS
OF FAITH – BETS…
To address ...
IDENTIFYING YOUR BETS AND TESTING
THEM WILL PROVE OR REFUTE THEM, SO
YOU LEARN IF YOUR PLAN A WILL WORK
BEFORE YOU WASTE T...
GUIDE & TRACK YOUR JOURNEY:
DASHBOARD
A dashboard is a tool that drives an evidence-
based process to plan, guide, and tra...
DASHBOARD FOR PLAN A :
Leap of Faith
Question
Hypothesis Metrics/Te
st
Findings/Resul
ts
Insight/Respons
e
1. Commuters
wi...
YOUR GOAL IS TO FIND A PATH THAT WORKS !
You are here.
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New 5 bets and test - plan a to n

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New 5 bets and test - plan a to n

  1. 1. On Bets and Tests: Entering an Existing Industry Ziya G. Boyacigiller This presentation was created and given by Ziya Boyacigiller who was leading Angel Investor and a loved mentor to many young entrepreneurs in Turkey. We have shared it on the web for everyone’s benefit. It is free to use but please cite Ziya Boyacigiller as the source when you use any part of this presentation. For more about Ziya Boyacigiller’s contributions to the start-up Ecosystem of Turkey, please go to www.ziyaboyacigiller.com
  2. 2. BETS AND TEST – MOVING FROM PLAN A TO N... Entering an Existing Industry Ref: Getting to Plan B, J. Mullins / R. Komisar
  3. 3. EVOLUTION OF KNOWLEDGE http://files.posterous.com/jaysteele Roger L. Martin
  4. 4. SUCCESS WITH “PLAN A” IS LIKE CREATING A WORK OF ART AT FIRST TRY…
  5. 5. EVOLUTION OF CLAY – INCLUDES TRIAL & ERROR, TESTING & LEARNING…
  6. 6. Figuring out what customers will buy is a process – not a guess. FIGURING OUT WHAT CUSTOMERS WANT AND WILL BUY SOUNDS EASY – BUT IS NOT !
  7. 7. Running out of cash isn’t a cause – it’s a symptom. It’s a symptom or signal that the company’s business model didn’t work. “WE RAN OUT OF CASH.”
  8. 8. GOAL : CREATING A BUSINESS MODEL THAT WORKS Business Model is the pattern of economic activity – cash flowing into and out of your business for various purposes and the timing thereof – that dictates whether or not you run out of cash and whether or not you deliver attractive returns to your investors.
  9. 9. THE QUESTIONS YOU CANNOT ANSWER BY LOOKING AT THE ANALOGS AND ANTILOGS LEAD YOU TO YOUR LEAPS OF FAITH – BETS… To address your leaps of faith, you’ll have to leap… that is, experiment.
  10. 10. IDENTIFYING YOUR BETS AND TESTING THEM WILL PROVE OR REFUTE THEM, SO YOU LEARN IF YOUR PLAN A WILL WORK BEFORE YOU WASTE TOO MUCH OF YOUR TIME AND YOUR MONEY.
  11. 11. GUIDE & TRACK YOUR JOURNEY: DASHBOARD A dashboard is a tool that drives an evidence- based process to plan, guide, and track the results of what you learn from your hypothesis testing.
  12. 12. DASHBOARD FOR PLAN A : Leap of Faith Question Hypothesis Metrics/Te st Findings/Resul ts Insight/Respons e 1. Commuters will stop and buy a refreshing drink made with fresh lemons. 1. At least 10 customers per day will buy 2. At least 20 people will stop and ask for price. Customers/ day Set up on a chair with lemons/sug ar borrowed from Mom… 1. Mon/2, Tue/0 (rained), Wed/8 2. Mon/8, Tue/0, Wed/24 High pricing deters sales, people look but don’t buy; no point setting up if it rains; seems like demand is less than Johnny thought. 2. People will pay a premium price over Coke selling at $1/glass. $1.50 per drink will be acceptable Total customers/ people asking for price Mon/25%, Tue/-, Wed/33% $1.50 looks too high. We need a Plan B.
  13. 13. YOUR GOAL IS TO FIND A PATH THAT WORKS ! You are here.

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