Negative Advertising in Election Campaingns
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See YouTube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd2btvyThuc Contrary to what people say, negative advertising is a useful and effective tool in election campaigns. The term negative is used to indicate that your opponent(s) are the focus of your advertising, while positive advertising has a focus on you. Positive advertising shows why you are the best option and negative advertising shows why your opponent is not the best option. Maybe a better term to use is COMPARATIVE advertising, with objective to compare and contrast options, which gives voters more information so that they can see the big picture rather than just the limited and exaggerated hype of a positive campaign. There is a lot of psychological strategy involved in a negative ad - maybe more than in a positive ad. The use of the primary emotions of fear and anger are used to either suppress or mobilize voters.
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Negative Advertising in Election Campaingns
- 1. Winning the Campaign Nega%ve Campaigning Željko Zidarić Civic Innova1on Incubator July 7, 2014 I inkubator
- 2. Anyone can become angry - that is easy, but to be angry with the right person at the right time, and for the right purpose and in the right way - that is not within everyone's power and that is not easy. Aristotle - Nicomachean Ethics Book II, 1109.a27 Activists
- 3. VideoIndex Negative Campaigning • Introduction • Objectives • How it works • Your Offense Plan • Your Defense Plan
- 4. Introduction
- 5. Negativeads
- 6. The Wesleyan Media Project Negativity Negative Contrast Positive 2000 2004 2008 2012 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
- 7. 20% 19% Obama McCain Primary Election June-November 68% 62% 18% Negativity Obama 30 min Hope Change Fear Professor William Benoit, Ohio University Negative Campaign Ads
- 9. WholeStory Opponent’s Positive Campaign Your Negative Campaign
- 15. Shockvertising
- 17. Themes ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ Person Policy Past Future Message Time Compare and contrast is good Democracy requires negativity • Accountability • Criticize problems • Better Options • Fully informed
- 18. What will happen Costs Consequences Full Story Willing to pay price? Themes Person Policy Past Future Message Time
- 19. But tell the truth Themes Person Policy Past Future Message Time
- 20. What happened Accomplishments Failures Opponent Failed Themes Person Policy Past Future Message Time
- 21. Credibility Unfit Not Capable Opponent Will Fail Themes Person Policy Past Future Message Time
- 23. Warning argumentum ad hominem is not valid debate tactic When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. - Socrates
- 24. Objectives
- 26. Winning ✔ 50% of votes +1 Critical bit Total Voters Total Votes
- 27. 10% might not vote 30% already decided 20% persuadable 40% will not vote Objective
- 28. Independent Undecided 2Party Democrat Republican Mobilize your supporters Suppress their supporters
- 31. Center MultiParty Progressive Conservative Undecided Party 3 Party 2 Party 1 Party 4
- 34. SwingStates 800,000 independent voters in 12 swing states
- 35. Opinion I do not agree with voter suppression because I see it as a manipulative strategy to prevent people from exercising their democratic rights and obligations.
- 36. How i How it works
- 37. CavemanPolitics Nega1ve Bias = Survival
- 38. LossAversion Is everyone doing their part?
- 39. LossAversion The pain of loss is almost twice as strong as the reward felt from a gain Pleasure Pain Loss Gain Small Pleasure Big Pain Counter-balanced by Optimism bias
- 40. • Confirmation bias • Negativity bias • In-group bias • Gambler’s fallacy • Observational selection bias • Status-quo bias • Bandwagon effect • Projection bias • Current moment bias • Anchoring effect CognitiveBiases
- 42. Process • Fear • Anger • Disgust • Hope Emotion Reason
- 43. Adoration Attraction Affection Fondness Compassion Passion Caring Liking Longing Tenderness Love Joy Sadness Anger Fear Pleasure Enthusiasm Happiness Satisfaction Eagerness Cheerfulness Optimism Contentment Relief Pride Zest Grief Sorrow Misery Disappointment Hopelessness Depression Despair Unhappiness Loneliness Shame Regret Remorse Frustration Irritation Exasperation Resentment Torment Rage Disgust Agitation Envy Jealousy Bitterness Hate Anxiety Worry Distress Horror Dread Shock Terror Fright Panic Hysteria Apprehension Emotions
- 45. Fear Flight Fear is a response to a stimulus perceived as a threat – either now or in future. • Rapid decisions • Black or white thinking • Herd mentality
- 46. Anger Fight Anger is a response related to psychological interpretation of having been threatened. • Powerful tool • Catalyst for action • Optimism + control • Respected response
- 47. Disgust Avoid Disgust is a feeling of revulsion to the unhealthy. • Risk minimization • Preventative response • Withdraw + avoid • Long tem imprint Contempt = Anger + Disgust
- 49. Disgusting? Good role model for our daughters?
- 50. Disgust 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 Disgust Sensi1vity Conserva1ves are more easily disgusted than Liberals Inbar, Pizarro, Iyer Haidt (2012) “Disgust sensitivity, political conservatism and voting” N = 29,623 in USA
- 51. Neuroscientist Paul D. MacLean, 1960s TheBrain 3 1. Rep%lian FEAR Fight or Flight 2. Limbic Emo1ons + Values amygdala hijacking 3. Neocortex Ra1onal Thought 2 1
- 52. System 2 DualProcess Fast and easy Slow and difficult System 1
- 53. DualProcess 1890 William James Associative True Reason 1986 Petty Cacioppo Peripheral Central 1996 Steven Sloman Associative Rule Based 2000 Stanovich West System 1 System 2 2003 Daniel Kahneman Intuitive Reasoning 2004 Strack Deutch Impulsive Reflective 2011 Daniel Kahneman Fast Slow
- 54. FastorSlow
- 55. FastorSlow Cumulative Resources CumulativeValueCreated 80% 98% X 2X Fast System 1 Slow System 2
- 56. FastANDSlow Slow You System 2 Fast You System 1
- 57. Your Offense Plan
- 58. Goals Negative ads that work aren’t ‘negative.’ They are ‘hard-hitting issue ads about our opponent’s record of shame!’ Alex Castellanos Republican strategist
- 59. AllPositive 2004 “No Negative” Campaign It doesn’t pay to be a Boy scout.
- 60. Process EffortExpense Election Election Election Campaign Positive Campaign Educate Negative Feel Negative Positive
- 62. Preparation “It’s not the will to win that matters - everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matter.” - Paul “Bear” Bryant
- 64. StartTime E-Day C-start ? ? ? When to start? - The sooner the better, but …. Resources Broke Too early? Too late?
- 65. AdBudget The Wesleyan Media Project Daily Number of Ads Republican Democrat 5,000 5,000 -‐140 -‐120 -‐100 -‐80 -‐60 -‐40 -‐20 0 Days to Elec1on 2008 Daily Democra1c and Republican Ads Elec1on Day
- 66. NegativeTiming Duration AS%oftotalads Election 100% 50% Scenario B Scenario C Negative Campaign Expenses Scenario A
- 67. Targets Media Voters Opponent Put opponent on defensive Influence them to investigate - get earned media Influence • suppress the undecided • force voters to reassess • mobilize your support base.
- 68. InfluenceRipples David Armano 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 X 3 4 4 2 4 You 3rd Party
- 69. You can’t make the campaign about something people don’t want the campaign to be about.
- 70. Independent Undecided Negative Progressive Conservative Motivate and Mobilize your core Demotivate and Suppress their core
- 71. Negative Progressive Conservative Motivate and Mobilize your core Anger Fight
- 72. Negative Progressive Conservative Demotivate and Suppress their core Fear Flight
- 75. 2016: Obama's America 2012 documentary by conservative author | and commentator Dinesh D'Souza. July 13, 2012 (limited) August 24, 2012 (wide Run Time 89 minutes Budget $2.5 million Negativev2.0
- 76. Validate Test before you attack!
- 77. KnowOpponent If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles. Sun Tzu, The Art of War
- 78. HonestyinAds People want ads that are: • More about issues than traits • Issues that relate to governing • Be more specific than vague • Prove it through documenta1on Nega)ve ads are more about real issues than are posi)ve ads John C. Greer, In Defense of Nega1vity
- 79. Topics Attack your opponent where you are strongest - make opponent part of your story 1. About the public record and issues 2. What the costs of their policies will be 1. Past policies 2. Future Policies 3. Qualifications of your opponent 1. Experience: Have they been in office before? 2. Traits: Do they flip-flop? 3. Out of touch?
- 80. Topics 1. Be Fair: Make sure you throw clean mud! • Factual and documented 2. Us substantive arguments 3. Say something positive about your opponent then disagree 4. Use negative ads judiciously • Strategically timed • Use in moderation at proper intervals 5. Graphic and audio design = emotion
- 81. Playbooks Karl Rove Saul Alinsky
- 82. Right-KarlRove Rovian Counter-thrust Take away your opponents competitive advantage The Rovian Playbook: Campaign Tac1cs Tac1c 1: Take the offensive Tac1c 2: Aaack your opponent’s strengths Tac1c 3: Accuse your opponent of what they will accuse you of Tac1c 4: Go Nega1ve, then cry foul Tac1c 5: The “Big Lie” Tac1c 6: Appeal to moral values Tac1c 7 Sell the Bush persona Tac1c 8: Sell an adolescent worldview Tac1c 9: Exploit the media Tac1c 10: Create straw issues Tac1c 11: Employ surrogates Tac1c 12: Use emo1onal appeals Tac1c 13: Rely on expert tes1monials Tac1c 14: Rhetorical devices Tac1c 15: Use of language
- 83. Saul Alinsky – Rules for Radicals 1. Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have. 2. Never go outside the experience of your people. 3. Go outside the experience of the enemy. 4. Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules. 5. Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. 6. A good tactic is one that your people enjoy. 7. A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag. 8. Keep the pressure on. 9. The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself. 10. If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through. 11. The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative. 12. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it. Left-SaulAlinsky
- 84. Playbooks Obama teaching the Alinsky Model
- 86. BeReady Duration EffortExpense Election Election Election Campaign Prepare Negative Prepared By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail. ― Benjamin Franklin
- 87. StayonCourse Opponent story Your story Election Pull off story Stay on story
- 88. Defense Stay on Message Counter attack Add to your story Ignore Frivolous Strong Rebuttal On Core Issues
- 90. Formal fallacies Proposi1onal fallacies Quan1fica1on fallacies Formal syllogis1c fallacies Red herring fallacies • associa1on fallacy • appeal to emo1on • argumentum ad hominum • argumentum ad populum • argumentum ad baculum • argumentum ad consequen1am Informal fallacies • false aaribu1on • if-‐by-‐whiskey • moral high ground • moralis1c fallacy • moving the goalposts • onus probandi • pe11o principii • argumentum ad nauseam • argumentum ad temperan1am • argumentum e silen1o • cum hoc ergo propter hoc • circulus in demonstrando LogicFallacies
- 93. BePositive Our strength does not come from what we fight against but from what we fight for.
- 94. Contact Zeljko Zidaric Civic Innova1on Incubator zzidaric@gmail.com