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タンパク源安全保障問題

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Singularity University方式"Problem Sprint"の例題
食糧問題~タンパク源~食糧安全保障

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タンパク源安全保障問題

  1. 1. タンパク源安全保障問題 Singularity Uiversity ”Problem Sprint”方式 課題分析セッション例題 2017.09.17 1.00版
  2. 2. 動物性タンパク源:消費者60億人、市場規模160兆円
  3. 3. 国ごとのタンパク質消費量 実はタンパク質はほとん どの国で足りている 成人男性の1日 必要量=56g. (肉換算~200g)
  4. 4. 「タンパク源安全保障」の各ステージ 足りて いる? 保障され ている? 持続 可能? ~10億 貧困によるタ ンパク源不足 ~20億 輸入や持続不能 な漁業に依存 ~30億 水資源枯渇、気 候変動誘発,森 林破壊など ( Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland, 2010 https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP340.pdf) “肉食による公共負担 は2050年で1.6兆ドル を超える” Farm Animal Investment Risk and Return Initiative
  5. 5. 既に起き始めている「持続不可能」 食糧価格上昇 水資源価格上昇 気候変動 地政学バランスの変化 中東での国家破綻 FAO食糧価格指標 米国とうもろこし価格 米国小麦価格 米国大豆価格
  6. 6. 「課題設定」 “世界中で60億人のタンパク源が脆 弱な状況にある。
  7. 7. 誰が影響を受けているのか? 生産 流通 消費 食糧生産による環境破 壊の影響を受ける人、主 に新興国の地方在住の 第1次産業従事者 食品産業、金融機関 日本・中国などの食糧を 輸入に頼る国の人 食糧価格の上昇を目にす る一般消費者 新興国の脱貧困したばかり の新中間層 世界的に「中間層」の人数は2009年の18億人から2020年に32億人、 2030年に49億人に増えると見られる。 Kharas, Homi (2010) "The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries", Development Centre Working Papers, No.295, OECD Publishing 中国の飼料自給率は 42%なので、8億人が輸入に依存し ている計算になる。 World Trade Atlas / National Bureau of Statistics of China
  8. 8. 8 生産 流通 消費 ブラジルの50%、アルゼンチ ンの70%の大豆が中国へ ⇒南米で森林破壊と水枯渇 Rev. Econ. Polit. vol.32 no.3 Sao Paulo July/Sept.2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0101-31572012000300010 Trade with China and strategy in South American recent economic development 中国の大豆輸入量 肉のサプライチェーンによる外部不経済
  9. 9. 9 生産 流通 消費 食糧生産による環境破 壊の影響を受ける人、 主に新興国の地方在住 の第1次産業従事者 持続不能な漁業から抜 け出せず、資源枯渇を 引き起こしてしまう。 ※10億人がタンパク源を海産 物に依存している 家畜動物による餌の消 費で食糧が値上がり し、貧困層を直撃 出典: Global Ocean Commission 肉のサプライチェーンによる外部不経済
  10. 10. 10 世界的に「中間層」の人数は2009年の18億人から2020年に32億人、 2030年に49億人に増えると見られる。 Kharas, Homi (2010) "The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries", Development Centre Working Papers, No.295, OECD Publishing 食品・外食産業は、2025年までに市場規模が先進国では6%拡大、新興地域では21%拡大すると見られる。 OECD/FAO (2016), “Meat”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris. 生産 流通 消費 一般消費者 新興国の脱貧困した ばかりの新中間層 世界中の食品および 食文化産業 被害者と加害者が同じという難しさ 主に新興国の地方在住 の第1次産業従事者、中 間層へと移行しつつある 食品産業、金融機関 日本・中国などの食糧を 輸入に頼る国の人
  11. 11. 11 実は大部分の国で は足りている。 輸入に頼る国が多い。 基本的にすべて持続 不能。鶏ならいくらか ましという程度。 1 2食文化は維持す るも、持続可能な タンパク源に 食文化を変えて タンパク源の消 費を減らす。 ( Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland, 2010 https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP340.pdf) タンパク源安全保障問題の構図 足りて いる? 保障され ている? 持続 可能?
  12. 12. 12 生産 流通 消費 1. 肉消費量を減らし て全体を低減 2. 外部不経済を軽減 する 1. 2. 2方面での課題解決指針
  13. 13. 13 生産 流通 消費 海外の農地を買う 代替タンパク源 一層の食糧増産 新たな漁場へ移動 食糧状況の良い場所へ移 住 金銭で輸入を増やす。 廃棄食品を減らす 価格高騰で買えなくなる 食習慣を変える 社会啓蒙活動 廃棄食品を減らす 1.肉消費量の低減2. 外部不経済の軽減 赤 = 短期的対応策, 青 = 長期的解決策 これまで取られた対応策と解決策
  14. 14. 14 実は大部分の国で は足りている。 輸入に頼る国が多い。 基本的にすべて持続 不能。鶏ならいくらか ましという程度。 1 2食文化は維持す るも、持続可能な タンパク源に 食文化を変えて タンパク源の消 費を減らす。 ( Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland, 2010 https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP340.pdf) 純肉・細胞農業の位置づけ 足りて いる? 保障され ている? 持続 可能?
  15. 15. 15 生産 流通 消費 1. 肉消費量を減らし て全体を低減 2. 外部不経済を軽減 する 1. 2. 純肉・細胞農業の位置づけ
  16. 16. 中国の大豆の生産・消費・輸入量 米国の大豆輸出量 対中輸出 他の地域への輸出 対中輸出の割合 参考資料:中国のタンパク源安全保障状況

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