Whose Progress? Causes and Consequences of Unequal Transitions Rhiannon Moore & Bridget Azubuike Young Lives, University of Oxford CIES International Conference, 9th March 2017

1. Whose Progress? Causes and Consequences
of Unequal Transitions
Rhiannon Moore & Bridget Azubuike
Young Lives, University of Oxford
CIES Conference
9th
March 2017
@yloxford
@rhi_moore
@orbeezy06

2. OUTLINE
 Progression through school and grade repetition:
introduction
 Enrolment trajectories of Young Lives children:
transitions from primary to secondary
 Grade progression and repetition: when are children
falling behind?
 Grade repetition: some of the factors involved
 Discussion

3. TRANSITIONS TO SECONDARY EDUCATION
With access to basic education now
close to universal in most countries,
there is increasing policy focus on
secondary education:
Who is progressing to secondary
education and who is not?
Are there key transition points at
which children are more likely to drop
out or fall behind?
What does this mean for the equity of
secondary education?

4. RETURNS TO SECONDARY EDUCATION
 Increasing returns for higher
levels of education in developing
countries (Colclough et al, 2009)
 Declining returns to primary
education as economies change
 Unequal transition to secondary
reinforces exclusion of
disadvantaged groups in labour
market (DFID, 2017)
 Secondary education ‘critical’ to
breaking intergenerational
transmission of poverty (World
Bank, 2009)

5. GRADE REPETITION & BEING ‘OVERAGE’
 Enrolment is not all that matters:
patterns of grade progression or
repetition are also important
 Considerable costs (economic &
other) of grade repetition
 Children who repeat grades learn
less than those of similar ability
level who progress to the next
grade (Glick & Sahn, 2010)
 ‘Over-age for grade’ children are
most at risk of not completing
basic education (Sabates et al,
2010)

6. ENROLMENT TRAJECTORIES
 Young Lives data – can
track education history
across time
 By age 12 (2013), the
number of Young Lives
children enrolled in
school was comparable
across the three
countries
 But different paths to
getting to this point –
differences across the
countries, points in
time and groups in each
country

7. GRADE PROGRESSION: VIETNAM
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Year
Dropped out
2 to 4 years ahead
One year ahead
Right grade for age
One year behind
2 to 4 years behind
5 to 7 years behind
VN YC Schooling Progress

8. GRADE PROGRESSION: INDIA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Year
Dropped out
2 to 4 years ahead
One year ahead
Right grade for age
One year behind
2 to 4 years behind
5 to 7 years behind
IN YC Schooling Progress

9. GRADE PROGRESSION: ETHIOPIA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
Dropped out
2 to 4 years ahead
One year ahead
Right grade for age
One year behind
2 to 4 years behind
5 to 7 years behind
8 to 9 years behind
ET YC Schooling Progress

10. FACTORS IN GRADE PROGRESSION
 Quite a lot of variation
in grade progression in
Ethiopia and India
explained by student
background
characteristics
 This is less apparent in
Vietnam – suggests
other factors in grade
repetition
 Type of school
attended is also
important in Ethiopia
and India – more likely
to repeat grades in
private schools.
OLS regression.
Dependent Variable: Positive grade
progression.
VARIABLES Ethiopia India Vietnam
R1 middle tercile (ref category: R1 bottom tercile) 0.368*** 0.149** 0.0824**
R1 top tercile 0.401*** 0.201** 0.0855**
R4 middle tercile (ref category: R4 bottom tercile) -0.141* 0.198*** 0.0704**
R4 top tercile 0.155 0.281*** 0.0605
Male (ref category: Female) -0.170*** -0.215*** -0.0237
Urban (ref category: Rural) 0.0931 0.155* -0.0676*
Caregivers education -0.0130* 0.0454*** 0.0121***
Private School (ref category: Public school) -0.243** -0.672*** 0.206
Other School type -0.372* -0.715*** -0.0370
Score on Language Test R4 0.0302*** 0.0186*** 0.00352***
Constant 3.012*** 3.748*** 4.474***
Observations 1,078 1,409 1,402
R-squared 0.283 0.224 0.053
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

11. DISCUSSION & IMPLICATIONS
 Grade repetition is an important
aspect of the schooling trajectories
of Young Lives children
 Children in private schools more
likely to repeat grades in Ethiopia
and India
 Need to understand more about
the factors behind grade repetition
 Policy solutions need to address
grade repetition and ‘over-age for
grade’ enrolment e.g. remedial
education

12. DISCUSSION & IMPLICATIONS
 Children from all backgrounds are
staying in school for longer - but most
disadvantaged are still more likely to
drop out before age 15
 Transition to secondary school is key
point for dropout
 Policy solutions needed which focus
on helping children make this
transition
 But need to avoid placing emphasis
on completing more years of
education rather than improving
learning (e.g. ASER 2016)

13. REFERENCES
ASER (2016) ASER 2016 (Rural) Findings. Delhi: ASER.
Colclough, C., Kingdon, G. and Patrinos, H.A. (2009) The Pattern of Returns to
Education and Its Implications. RECOUP Working Paper 4. Cambridge:
RECOUP.
DFID (2017) Economic Development Strategy: prosperity, poverty and meeting
global challenges. London: DFID.
Glick, P. and Sahn, D.E. (2010) ‘Early Academic Performance, Grade Repetition,
and School Attainment in Senegal: A Panel Data Analysis’ World Bank Economic
Review. 24 (1): 93-120.
Sabates, R., Akyeampong, K., Westbrook, J. and Hunt, F. (2010) School Drop
out: Patterns, Causes, Changes and Policies. Paper commissioned for the EFA
GMR 2011, The Hidden Crisis: Armed conflict and education.
World Bank (2009) Secondary Education in India: Universalising Opportunity.
Washington DC: Human Development Unit South Asia Region.