Power GaN Market & technology trends 2014 Report by Yole Developpement


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The GaN power industry is consolidating in preparation for significant growth

80% ANNUAL GROWTH FROM 2016-2020!

Overall, 2020 could see an estimated device market size of almost $600M, leading to approximately 580,000 x 6” wafers to be processed. Ramp-up will be quite impressive starting in 2016, at an estimated 80% CAGR through 2020, based upon a scenario where EV/HEV begins adopting GaN in 2018-2019.

The power supply/PFC segment will dominate the business from 2015-2018, ultimately representing 50% of device sales. At that point, automotive will then catch-up.

In UPS applications, the medium-power segment is likely to be very much in line with the GaN value proposition, and savings at system level will be demonstrated. We think GaN technology could grab up to 15% of market share in this field by 2020.

Room for extra cost in motor drive applications is unlikely. Therefore, the incentives to implement new technologies such as GaN have to be serious and strong. Considering the possible improvement of conversion efficiency, and augmented by a predictable price parity with Si solutions by 2018, we expect GaN to start being implemented at a slow rate in motor control by 2015-2016, and reach around $45M in revenue by 2020.

The PV inverters segment has already adopted SiC technology, and products are now commercially available. It’s possible that GaN could partially displace SiC thanks to better price positioning. However, now that SiC is in place, qualifying GaN may be more challenging.

This report illustrates the full coverage of GaN device market data, split by application and through 2020.

More information on that report at http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Power-GaN-Market/3/443/

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Power GaN Market & technology trends 2014 Report by Yole Developpement

  1. 1. © 2014 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Power GaN GaN technologies for power electronic applications: Industry and market status & forecasts 2014 edition 75, cours Emile ZOLA, F-69100 Villeurbanne, France Tel: +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax: +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr Dow corning FBHEpiGaN AZZURRO FBH EPC Corp. IMEC YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  2. 2. © 2014 • 2 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. GaN Devices in Power Application 2010-2020 market size, split by application Executive Summary YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  3. 3. © 2014 • 3 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. GaN-based Power Electronics Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market GaN Power Electronics 40-600V 600V 650V 1.2kV 600V 600V 1.2kV 600V 600V 1.7–6.5 kV1.7kV Written in the bubbles is the main device voltage target for GaN Bubble size is related to Si device market as of 2013, most likely accessible to GaN 1.2kV YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  4. 4. © 2014 • 4 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. % of GaN revenues by company headquarter location. 2010-2020 Executive Summary US domination (IR & EPC) Japan ramp-up Taiwan & Korea starting Japan ramp-up Europe + Japan starting YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  5. 5. © 2014 • 5 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. 6” GaN-on-Si Epiwafer Market Price evolution roadmap to 2020 Executive Summary Based upon R&D volumes up to 2011, qualification volumes in 2012 & 2013, then production volume orders beyond 2013 Epiwafer is 6 to 7µm GaN epilayer Dislocation Density in the ~108 / cm² Carrier is Si (111) Bow is < 30µm YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  6. 6. © 2014 • 6 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. 6” (equiv.) wafer market volume demand 2010-2020 market volume, split by application, in units Executive Summary The calculation here is based on 6” equivalent substrates. We expect the market will be ~100% 6” from now to 2015, then 8” will be introduced and will handle 50% of the processed surface in 2020. 300mm GaN-on-Si is not forecast until 2020. That simulates what could be the market $ is 100% is sourced from external merchant suppliers YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  7. 7. © 2014 • 7 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Our prediction for 2013-2020 power electronics envisioned evolution (1/2) YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  8. 8. © 2014 • 8 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. GaN transistor type acceptance matrix Noff (E-mode) Native Noff cascode Non (D-mode) Application A 2 2 2 Application B 2 3 3 Application C 2 3 3 Application D 2 3 4 Application E 2 3 3 Application F 2 3 4 Application G 2 3 3 Application H 2 3 3 Application I 1 4 4 Application J 1 4 4 1: Mandatory 2: most likely / preferred 3: possible alternate 4: non-suitable YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  9. 9. © 2014 • 9 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Main Power GaN Players and Related Business Model Company GaN epiwafer GaN device GaN-on-xx Wafer Ø Comments Company A X FL Sapphire Spin-off Univ. S. Carolina Company B X Si, SiC, Sapphire 2” to 6” Company C (X) X Si 6” & 8” 400m² GaN pilot line in Belgium Company D (X) X Si 6” 600V Noff Gate Injection HEMT samples by March 2013 Company E X Sapphire 2” & 4” Company F (X) (X) Sapphire 4” For internal use only: PFC module. Up to 650V Company G (X) X SiC 4” Open foundry. 650V/30A product. Company H (X) X Silicon 6” First HEMT demo exhibited in Oct 2012. App is contactless charging Company I (X) X Si 5” Super Lattice technique Company J (X) X Si 600V HEMT samples by April 2013 Company K (X) X Bulk GaN Company L X Silicon 6” & 8” MOCVD in house (Tsukuba). 3 to 5µm thick Company M ? X Si Monolithic integration of GaN IC Company N (X) X SiC Company O (X) X SiC & Si 4” & 6” Agreement with XXX for R&D and manufacturing Company P FL S.I. SiC MOSHEMT structure. Noff Source: Yole Développement GaN Industry FL: Fab-less business model. Design only (X): For internal purpose only: no merchant business Power GaN pure-players YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  10. 10. © 2014 • 10 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Ref XXX SJ MOSFET Process cost analysis Courtesy of System Plus Consulting YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  11. 11. © 2014 • 11 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Payback Time Estimation Overall results It would take almost 4 years to absorb full-GaN PFC extra cost for a LCD TV set usage For a 24/7 operation (data center or telecom server) the ROI is obtained in < 1year From 2018, the intrinsic cost of GaN PFC could become cheaper than the silicon version. PFC, DC-DC & POL Market YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  12. 12. © 2014 • 12 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. • AC Slow charger on-board: – Power: X.X to X.2 kW. Average: X.6 kW – Standard socket (110-220V 10A, 16A, 32A, single-phase) available in home – Devices: MOSFET + diodes • AC Quick charger on-board: – Power: X1 to X2 kW. X3 W after 2020. Average: X2 kW – Specific socket: 380-400V, 32A to 63A 3-phase – Devices: IGBT + diodes – Average power module price / car: $X00 • DC quick charger off-board: – Power: 50kW+. Based upon charging station “street charger” Topologies of EV Chargers Off board On board Grid Battery BatteryGrid Off board On board EV/pHEV battery charger YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
  13. 13. ORDER FORM Power GaN Market SHIPPING CONTACT First Name: Email: Last Name: Phone: PAYMENT BY CREDIT CARD Visa Mastercard Amex Name of the Card Holder: Credit Card Number: Card Verification Value (3 digits except AMEX: 4 digits): Expiration date: BY BANK TRANSFER BANK INFO: HSBC, 1 place de la Bourse, F-69002 Lyon, France, Bank code: 30056, Branch code : 00170 Account No: 0170 200 1565  87, SWIFT or BIC code: CCFRFRPP, IBAN: FR76 3005 6001 7001 7020 0156 587 RETURN ORDER BY • FAX: +33 (0)472 83 01 83 • MAIL: YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT, Le Quartz, 75 Cours Emile Zola, 69100 Villeurbanne/Lyon - France SALES CONTACTS • North America: David Jourdan - jourdan@yole.fr • Asia: Takashi Onozawa - onozawa@yole.fr • Europe RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy - eloy@yole.fr • Korea: Hailey Yang - yang@yole.fr • General: info@yole.fr (1) Our Terms and Conditions of Sale are available at www.yole.fr/Terms_and_Conditions_of_Sale.aspx The present document is valid 24 months after its publishing date: June 16th , 2014 / ABOUT YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT BILL TO Name (Mr/Ms/Dr/Pr): Job Title: Company: Address: City: State: Postcode/Zip: Country*: *VAT ID Number for EU members: Tel: Email: Date: PRODUCT ORDER Please enter my order for above named report : One user license*: Euro 3,990 Multi user license: Euro 5,990 *One user license means only one person at the company can use the report. Please be aware that our publication will be watermarked on each page with the name of the recipient and of the organization (the name mentioned on the PO). This watermark will also mention that the report sharing is not allowed. For price in dollars, please use the day’s exchange rate. All reports are delivered 20% for VAT I hereby accept Yole Développement’s Terms and Conditions of Sale(1) Signature: Founded in 1998, Yole Développement has grown to become a group of companies providing marketing, technology and strategy consulting, media in addition to corporate finance services. With a strong focus on emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing (technology or process), Yole Développement group has expanded to include more than 50 associates worldwide covering MEMS, Compound Semiconductors, LED, Image Sensors, Optoelectronics, Microfluidics Medical, Photovoltaics, Advanced Packaging, Manufacturing, Nanomaterials and Power Electronics. The group supports industrial companies, investors and RD organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and follow technology trends to develop their business. MEDIA EVENTS • i-Micronews.com, online disruptive technologies website • @Micronews, weekly e-newsletter • Technology Magazines dedicated to MEMS, Advanced Packaging, LED and Power Electronics • Communication webcasts services • Events: Yole Seminars, Market Briefings… More information on www.i-micronews.com CONTACTS For more information about : • Consulting Services: Jean-Christophe Eloy (eloy@yole.fr) • Financial Services: Géraldine Andrieux-Gustin (andrieux@yole.fr) • Report Business: David Jourdan (jourdan@yole.fr) • Corporate Communication: Sandrine Leroy (leroy@yole.fr) CONSULTING • Market data research, marketing analysis • Technology analysis • Reverse engineering costing services • Strategy consulting • Patent analysis More information on www.yole.fr REPORTS • Collection of technology market reports • Manufacturing cost simulation tools • Component reverse engineering costing analysis • Patent investigation More information on www.i-micronews.com/reports FINANCIAL SERVICES • Mergers Acquisitions • Due diligence • Fundraising • Coaching of emerging companies • IP portfolio management optimization More information on www.yolefinance.com