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April © 2015
From Technologies to Market
Phosphors and
Quantum Dots
2015:
LED Downconverters
for Lighting and Display
Appl...
2
Biography & contact
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Eric VIREY received a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Instit...
3
WHO SHOULD BE INTERESTED IN THIS REPORT?
o The report will be useful for executives, strategists, business development
m...
4
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Report Objectives - Scope and Limitations P7
• Acronyms and Definitions P8
• Companies cited in the ...
5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Compositions Overview P100
• Introduction
• Example of commercial offerings
• Yellow phosphors
• Gre...
6
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Quantum Dots for Display Applications (2/2) P182
• Major color gamut in the CIE 1931 and 1976 spaces...
7
REPORT OBJECTIVES – SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS
A downconverter is a material that has the capacity to absorb photons at a giv...
8
DOWNCONVERTER REQUIREMENTS FOR LIGHTING: CRI
• The Color Rendering Index (CRI) is a measure of how
well a light source r...
9
PHOSPHOR SHEETS
• Various processes have been developed by different companies to manufacture phosphor sheets. In this p...
10
MN4+ RED PHOSPHORS: PFS/KFS
GE has
granted
licenses to
Sharp and
Nichia for
display
applications
but might
keep
exclusi...
11
MATERIALS TIMELINE
XXX is the most
established and best
performing LED
phosphor and could
completely eliminate
silicate...
12
OVERVIEW
There are
more than 50
phosphor and
30 Quantum
Dots
manufacturers
Down-converters Packaged LEDs OEMS
• Samsung...
13
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
• Many of those companies rely on initial expertise developed in the
fluorescent lamp phosphor ma...
14
Others:
2014 CHINAVOLUME BREAKDOWN
• We estimate that the LED phosphor market in China was XX metric tons in 2014 (incl...
15
YAG PRICE TRENDS
• The price of YAG has dropped dramatically in the last 3 years. In some cases, Chinese phosphor suppl...
16
METHODOLOGY
Phosphor converted LED Chip surface per Application (mm2)
Laptop and
Tablets
TV and
Monitors
Other
displays...
17
AVERAGE QUANTITY OF PHOSPHOR PER LED
• The table below shows our hypothesis for the average quantities of phosphors per...
18
2012-2020VOLUME FORECAST WITH REMOTE PHOSPHORS.
Under our
remote
phosphor
adoption
scenario, the
total volume of
phosph...
19
MAJOR COLOR GAMUT IN THE CIE 1931 AND 1976 SPACES
* the ACES AP1 standards make use of “imaginary colors” and pokes out...
20
QUANTUM DOTS IMPLEMENTATION
Edge (1D) and full surface (2D) configurations.
Due to
stability
limitations
(High flux,
te...
21
EDGEVS. FILM: COST STRUCTURE
QDs are not the major contributor to the cost of the remote components.
• At the full comp...
22
COLOR ENCODING AND DISPLAY GAMUT
From content production to deliver.
The full content
production and
delivery chain
nee...
23
OLED AND QD DISPLAY COMPARISON
Each technology has fundamental strength and weaknesses
• Ultimately, one can expect OLE...
24
QD-LCD 2015 SUPPLY CHAIN OVERVIEW
Quantum Dots
Components
(Films,Tubes)
BLU
components &
systems
Display OEMs
©2015 | w...
25
TIER 1 QD SUPPLIERS PLAYERS: NANOSYS
• Develops, manufactures and sells QD materials (concentrates).
• 60,000 ft. facil...
26
SEGMENT ANALYSIS FOR QD ADOPTION IN DISPLAYS
Each segment have different drivers for adoption
Wider color
gamut would
i...
© 2015
From Technologies to Market
Presentation of Yole
Développement
With Focus on LED,
OLED and Sapphire
Activities
Corp...
© 2015
Yole Développement
FromTechnologies to Market
29
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Our 30
analysts
operate in the
following
areas.
MEMS &
Sensors
LED &
OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Ph...
30
4 BUSINESS MODELS
o Consulting and Analysis
• Market data & research, marketing analysis
• Technology analysis
• Strate...
31
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinan...
32
OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY
Yole
Japan
Yole Inc.
Yole
Korea
40% of our business is
in EU countries
30% of our business is
in No...
33
SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
Our analysts
provide
market
analysis,
technology
evaluation,
and business
plan along th...
34
CONTACT INFORMATION
o Consulting and Specific Analysis
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America ...
© 2015
About LED, OLED and
Sapphire Activities
36
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Yole is active throughout the value chain (LED and Sapphire activities)
We a...
37
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Insights on Forecast Methodology
“What’s Behind
the Crystal Ball?”
Only anal...
38
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
AboutYole’s AnalystTeam
A team based
on persons
having
complementary
skills ...
39
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Report collection
Already published -Yole Développement:
• Status of the LED...
ORDER FORM
Phosphors & Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters
for Lighting & Displays
SHIPPING CONTACT
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Phosphors & Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters for Lighting & Displays 2015 Report by Yole Developpement

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Traditional phosphors on the verge of commoditization due to expected strong push from China after YAG patents fall into public domain. But Quantum Dots are finally ready for prime time.

Strong price pressure stalls revenue growth and pressures margins but masks a more complex picture
While volumes are expected to more than double between 2015 and 2020, LED Phosphor prices have declined dramatically, leading to a flat revenue outlook. Low technology barriers of entrance on the most mature compositions have prompted companies to procure turnkey manufacturing equipment and enter the market. With little to no quality control and R&D expenses, some have achieved low cost comparable to that of the tri-phosphors used in fluorescent lamps. In a bid to capture market shares, they triggered an intense price war. With major YAG IP expiring from 2017, leading domestic vendors such as Yuji, Grirem, YT Shield, Illuma or Sunfor will finally access overseas markets, further increasing YAG commoditization. Phosphor makers are therefore shifting their efforts toward higher added value materials such as nitrides, which, while price have also decreased significantly during the period, have maintained better margins.

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Phosphors & Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters for Lighting & Displays 2015 Report by Yole Developpement

  1. 1. April © 2015 From Technologies to Market Phosphors and Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters for Lighting and Display Applications Report Sample From Technologies to Market
  2. 2. 2 Biography & contact ABOUT THE AUTHORS Eric VIREY received a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble. He’s held various R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Fortune 500 company Saint-Gobain in France and the United States. In its most recent position, he was Market Manager Optoelectronics in charge various product lines and serving the LED and optical telecommunication industries. In parallel, he was leading the corporate “Lighting Community” effort, acting as a market and technology competitive intelligence evangelist to identify and develop new business opportunities in solid state lighting (LED/OLEDs) across multiple business units. Eric has a broad knowledge of the entire solid state lighting value chain. In 2009, he joined Yole Developpement as a Senior Market andTechnology Analyst for LED Devices and Materials. Eric is also author / co-author of the following reports: • LED Packaging • LED Front End Manufacturing • III-V epitaxy • GaN bulk • GaN on Silicon • Status of the LED Industry • Sapphire Market & Applications • High Purity Alumina Contact: virey@yole.fr ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  3. 3. 3 WHO SHOULD BE INTERESTED IN THIS REPORT? o The report will be useful for executives, strategists, business development managers, sales managers, market researchers and purchasing managers at companies involved at all levels of the supply chain: • Phosphor and Quantum Dots precursors. • Phosphor and Quantum Dot manufacturing and dispensing equipment. • Phosphors and Quantum Dots material manufacturers. • Component manufacturers (phosphor sheets, remote phosphors, Quantum Dots components) • LED packagers • System manufacturers (Luminaires, LCD Backlight Unit, Display manufacturers). o The report is prepared in a way that will help new comers to the LED industry or to the particular segment represented by downconverters to rapidly gain a thorough understanding of the technical aspects as well as key market forces driving this market. This will benefit analysts at financial firms, VC firms, Academics in charge of R&D valorization etc… ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  4. 4. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS • Report Objectives - Scope and Limitations P7 • Acronyms and Definitions P8 • Companies cited in the Report - Phosphor Manufacturers P9 • Companies cited in the Report: - QD Manufacturers P10 • Executive Summary P11 • LED Market Overview P38 • LED market growth cycles • LED adoption trends per application • Packaged LED: 2008 -2020 revenue forecast • LED market trends - Lighting • LED market trends - Display • LED phosphor IP • LED Downconverters - Overview and Major Requirements P48 • How to make white light? • Key requirements for LED downconverters • Temperature stability • Particle size and distribution • Angle color consistency • Textured phosphors • Downconverter requirements for display applications • Downconverter requirements for lighting - CCT • Downconverter requirements for lighting - CRI • Downconverter requirements for lighting - Summary • Major white LED designs downconverter combinations • Conclusion • Downconverter Configurations P67 • Downconverter configurations and deposition methods • On-Chip Downconverters P69 • Overview - Various types of on-chip conversion • Volume conversion deposition technologies • Needle and jet dispensing • Ceramic preforms • Single crystal preforms • Conformal coatings • Conformal downconverters • Phosphor sheets • Chip scale packages and phosphor deposition • Summary of on-chip configurations • Conclusion • Remote Downconverters P86 • Overview • Benefits • Drawbacks • Potential applications • Trends • Summary • Phosphor sheets in displays • Conclusion • Traditional Phosphors P98 • Application overview – Report scope ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  5. 5. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS • Compositions Overview P100 • Introduction • Example of commercial offerings • Yellow phosphors • Green and red phosphors • Focus on Garnet phosphors • Focus on Silicates Phosphors • Focus on Nitrides and Oxynitrides • CarbidoNitride and oxycarbidonitrides • Mn4+ red phosphors - PFS/KFS • UV chip + RGB phosphor solutions • Example - Soraa MR16 • Summary of phosphor compositions • Premixed “white phosphors” • Conclusions • Materials timeline • Materials application matrix • Competitive Landscape P132 • Overview • Top 3 phosphor suppliers • Other leading international suppliers • Focus on China P139 • Competitive landscape • 2014 China volume breakdown • Major suppliers • Price Trends P146 • YAG price trends • Nitrides price trends • Other Garnets and Silicates price trends • Volume and Revenue Forecast P152 • Methodology & Challenges • Average quantity of phosphor per LED • 2012-2020 forecast - Surface of downconverted LED • 2012-2020 forecast - Phosphor volumes for on-chip conversion • Revenue forecast - Challenges and hypothesis • 2012-2020 revenue forecast for on-chip conversion • Remote phosphor hypothesis • 2012-2020 volume forecast with remote phosphors • 2012-2020 volume forecast – Remote vs on-chip • 2012-2020 revenue forecast with remote phosphors • Conclusion on traditional phosphors • Quantum Dots P172 • What’s a quantum dot? • Benefits and challenges • Quantum Dot Manufacturing P175 • Environmental impact • Quantum Dots for Display Applications (1/2) P182 • Introduction • Structure of an LCD display • Color gamut: definition • Color Gamut: standard LED LCD TVs ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  6. 6. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS • Quantum Dots for Display Applications (2/2) P182 • Major color gamut in the CIE 1931 and 1976 spaces • Strategies for extended gamut • Benefits of quantum dot • Backlight units - Edge and direct configurations • Local dimming schemes with LED backlights • Quantum dots implementation • “1D” edge configurations • 2D film configuration • Edge vs. Film - Cost structure • Edge vs. Film - Summary • 2013-2014 overview of commercial QD displays • Color encoding and display gamut • The UHD alliance • UHD vs. Current display capabilities • QD-LCD TV and rec. 2020 color gamut • Traditional phosphors for extended color gamut • The quest for narrow band green • Narrowband phosphors in commercial displays • Quantum Dots LCD vs. OLED P220 • OLED display technologies • OLED and QD display comparison • High Dynamic Range (HDR) • TV makers strategy • QD-LCD TV at the 2015 CES • Samsung And LG strategy for UHD • QD-LCD 2015 supply chain overview • Major QD suppliers for display applications • QD and OLED displays SWOT analysis • QD-LED displays • Conclusion • Quantum Dots for Lighting Applications P237 • Overview • QD challenges for lighting applications • Recent improvements and results of On-Chip QD • Conclusion on lighting • Quantum Dots - Competitive Landscape P243 • Nanoco • Nanosys • QD-Vision • Quantum Materials Corp & NN Crystal • Other QD material suppliers • Quantum Dots - 2015-2020 Forecast P252 • QD - The virtuous circle • Segment analysis for QD adoption in displays • Apple and Quantum Dots • QD penetration forecast 2015-2020 • QD material forecast - Key hypothesis • QD material forecast - QD Usage per display • QD material 2015-2020 forecast - Volumes for displays • QD material 2015-2020 forecast - Revenue for displays • Quantum dots - Lighting • QD in lighting - 2013-2020 volume forecast • QD in lighting - 2013-2020 revenue forecast • Conclusions • Presentation ofYole Développement P268 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  7. 7. 7 REPORT OBJECTIVES – SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS A downconverter is a material that has the capacity to absorb photons at a given wavelength and restitute light at a higher wavelength (=lower energy). Downconverters are used in conjunction with blue LEDs to create light sources emitting various colors including white. Two types of downconverters are used in the LED industry: traditional phosphors and Quantum Dots. The objective of the report is to provide the reader with a comprehensive review of the LED downconverter markets, technology trends, competitive landscape and price trends. Detailed volumes and revenue forecast are provided for each downconverter group (phosphors and Quantum Dots) • For readers new to the LED downconverter industry, the report provides an overview of the key requirements and specifications for use in the major LED applications: lighting and displays. The fundamentals of color rendering and color gamut are explained, as well as how application-specific requirements impact the choice of a downconverter material. • The major configurations (on-chip and remote) are presented and an overview of the phosphor dispensing methods is provided. An extensive discussion of remote configurations benefits and drawbacks helps the reader familiarize itself with drivers for adoption and understand our detailed set of hypothesis. • A thorough review of the major established and emerging phosphor families is presented as well as adoption and market trends for each compositions. • An extensive description of the competitive landscape including a special focus on China provides the reader an in-depth understanding and knowledge of established and emerging players in the industry. • Price trends are discussed globally and for each material family. • An extensive review of Quantum Dot applications in displays and lighting is provided. The reader will understand how the technology is positioned vs. established phosphor based LCD backlight and emerging Organic LED. • Detailed volume and revenue forecast are provided for both traditional phosphor and quantum dots. • The report does not provide a detailed analysis and quantifications of the dispensing equipment market. ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  8. 8. 8 DOWNCONVERTER REQUIREMENTS FOR LIGHTING: CRI • The Color Rendering Index (CRI) is a measure of how well a light source reproduces colors compared to a reference illuminant. • The CRI reports a unite-less value between 0 and 100, with 100 being a color reproduction identical to the reference. • Depending on the color temperature of the observed light bulb, the reference illuminant is sun light (when the color temperature is > 5000 K), or a black radiator (color temperature < 5000 K). • The difference in color rendition between the source being evaluated and the reference is measured for 15 reference colors. However, the result for only 8 colors are averaged to obtain the CRI index. • Because the CRI number is an average between those 8 colors, it can give no valuable insight into the rendering of any specific color. Comparing 2 light sources with identical CRI of 70, one might render good yellow and poor red while the other will de the exact opposite. • Similarly, 2 sources with a very different spectra can deliver a similar CRI (next page). CRI is an imperfect indicator of the color rendering ability of a light source. Sources with very different characteristic can deliver the same CRI but very different perception from the user. Comparisons of 2 sources with same CRI. Note the different rendering of the blue, yellow and red colors. (Picture: Lighting research Center) Source CRI Incandescent 95 T8 Linear Fluorescent 75 - 85 CoolWhite Linear Fluorescent 62 Compact Fluorescent 82 Standard Metal Halide 65 Standard HPS 22 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  9. 9. 9 PHOSPHOR SHEETS • Various processes have been developed by different companies to manufacture phosphor sheets. In this process, a phosphor material is embedded in a silicone binder and the mix is laminated or molded into a thin sheet. Typical thickness varies from XXX to XXX µm. Just like ceramic preforms, phosphor sheets allows for individual chromaticity testing and sorting and precise matching with various LED die bins. • Depending on the mode of application (conformal or preform), full curing is performed at the sheet level or after binding with the chips. • Thickness control and uniform dispersion of the phosphor particles are critical in controlling color uniformity. • Light scattering particles can be added in order to further improve color uniformity Phosphor mixing + homogenization in silicone binder Phosphor sheet manufacturing: lamination or molding on a glass or PET substrate. Initial curing. Chromaticity testing and sheet sorting SEM cross section showing uniform dispersion of the particles in the silicone sheet (source: Nitto Denko) ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  10. 10. 10 MN4+ RED PHOSPHORS: PFS/KFS GE has granted licenses to Sharp and Nichia for display applications but might keep exclusivity for lighting. • GE has granted licenses to Nichia and Sharp Corporation. PFS is already used in various commercial displays from smartphone, tablets to TV (see Quantum Dot section of this report) • Ge is also marketing the material for lighting applications under the brand name TriGainTM . The company already uses PFS in some of its own high CRI luminaire showing significant efficiency improvement for high CRI thanks to the narrow emission band falling almost entirely into the human eye sensitivity curve. Low CRI LED High CRI with Nitride High CRI with PFS 80 CRI 90 CRI 90 CRI 160 lm/W 127 lm/W 168 lm/W Low R9 R9 = 45 R9 = 90 Comparison of white LED, 4000K CCT, 3020 2-die packages (source: GE) ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  11. 11. 11 MATERIALS TIMELINE XXX is the most established and best performing LED phosphor and could completely eliminate silicates once key IP has expired after 2017. XXX is the eading red phosphor but will face competition from XX on some segment. XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 XXX 2016 2018 XXX 2020 XX ? Not used anymore in lighting application because of stability issues (moisture sensitive) but still considered in display applications due to narrow emission, possibility to use moisture barrier layers and shorter lifetime requirements, XXX XXX April 2015 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  12. 12. 12 OVERVIEW There are more than 50 phosphor and 30 Quantum Dots manufacturers Down-converters Packaged LEDs OEMS • Samsung (KR) • LG Innotek (KR) • Seoul Semiconductor (KR) • Cree (US) • Toyoda Gosei (JP) • Sharp (JP) • Everlight (TW) • Lextar (TW) • Unity Opto (TW) • Bright LED (TW) • Harvatek (TW) • Edison Opto (TW) • Ledtech (TW) • Oasis (TW) • Mason (TW) • Bridgelux (US) • Nationstar (CN) • Hongli (CN) • Changelight (CN) • Refond (CN) • Jufei (CN) • Ledman (CN) • … LCD Backlight displays Automotive Lighting General Lighting XXX XXX  Osram Opto Semiconductor (DE)  Osram (DE) XXX  Philips Lumileds (US)  Philips Lighting (NL) PhosphorsQDs April 2015 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  13. 13. 13 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE • Many of those companies rely on initial expertise developed in the fluorescent lamp phosphor market. Some are affiliates or joint ventures with rare earth mining or processing companies (e.g.: XXX, XXX…) and derive cost benefits from access to cheap sources of Yttrium or Lutetium for garnet phosphors. • Chinese phosphors manufacturers are still mostly focused on the domestic market. Some of the leading ones such as XXX and XXX are attempting to export their products in Taiwan, Korea and the US. However, exports remain a challenge as very few can offer exclusive, internally developed composition that could be used by LED makers without infringing existing IP from their competitors or phosphor manufacturers. However, some LED packagers have secured licenses from Nichia for the use of YAG and are free to source the material from whatever supplier they chose. • As YAG mostly turns into a commodity for tier-2 LED makers, most companies have shifted their focus on higher added value compositions such as LuAG, Ga-YAG, nitrides and oxynitrides. • Chinese vendors offer significantly lower prices and the performance at some leading players is closing the gap with historical leaders XXX, XXX or XXX. However, there are very large differences in performance and consistency from one vendor to another. Quality varies strongly from one vendor to another. But leading players are closing the gap with overseas suppliers while offering significantly lower prices. ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  14. 14. 14 Others: 2014 CHINAVOLUME BREAKDOWN • We estimate that the LED phosphor market in China was XX metric tons in 2014 (including both on-chip and remote phosphor configurations) • XXX, XXX, XXX and XXX dominated in volume thanks to large shipment ofYAG. • However, XXX, XXX and XXX dominated in revenue thanks to more favorable product mix comprised of higher ASP materials such as LuAG and Nitrides. Few reliable revenue data point are available.We estimate that XXX led in revenue while XXX and XXX took the lead in volumes. ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  15. 15. 15 YAG PRICE TRENDS • The price of YAG has dropped dramatically in the last 3 years. In some cases, Chinese phosphor suppliers are offering YAG below cost to lure LED packagers into buying higher added value products such as Nitrides. ASP in China range between $XX to $XX/kg with $XX-$XX/kg typical. • At those prices, not even the raw materials cost is covered. Suppliers often cut corners by employing lower purity raw materials (3N or less) and eliminating most of the quality controls. • Outside of China, prices for high quality products from tier-1 vendors can still exceed $XX/kg small volumes and a few $XX’s for larger users. We expect YAG prices to have essentially bottomed out as the technology is now fairly mature and there’s little additional room for cost reduction Picture: Yuji Electronic And Technology Co., Ltd ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  16. 16. 16 METHODOLOGY Phosphor converted LED Chip surface per Application (mm2) Laptop and Tablets TV and Monitors Other displays Cell Phones Automotive Signs and displays Projectors Personal Lighting Residential Lighting Industrial Lighting Outdoor Lighting Commercial Lighting Breakdown per conversion schemes: • RGB: xx% • Y: xx% • R: xx% • G+Y: xx% • … Breakdown per conversion schemes: • RGB: xx% • Y: xx% • R: xx% • G+Y: xx% • … Breakdown per conversion schemes: • RGB: xx% • Y: xx% • R: xx% • G+Y: xx% • … Breakdown per conversion schemes: • RGB: xx% • Y: xx% • R: xx% • G+Y: xx% • … Breakdown per conversion schemes: • RGB: xx% • Y: xx% • R: xx% • G+Y: xx% • … … Quantity of phosphor: • Blue: xx kg • Green: xx kg • Yellow: xx kg • Red: xx kg Quantity of phosphor: • Blue: xx kg • Green: xx kg • Yellow: xx kg • Red: xx kg Quantity of phosphor: • Blue: xx kg • Green: xx kg • Yellow: xx kg • Red: xx kg Quantity of phosphor: • Blue: xx kg • Green: xx kg • Yellow: xx kg • Red: xx kg Quantity of phosphor: • Blue: xx kg • Green: xx kg • Yellow: xx kg • Red: xx kg … Breakdown per composition: Green Phosphors • LuAG: xx% • GaYAG: xx% • Silicate: xx% • Oxynitride: xx% Breakdown per composition: Yellow Phosphors • YAG: xx% • Silicate: xx% Breakdown per composition: Red Phosphors • Nitride: xx% • Silicate: xx% Breakdown per composition: Green Phosphors • LuAG: xx% • GaYAG: xx% • Silicate: xx% • Oxynitride: xx% Breakdown per composition: Yellow Phosphors • YAG: xx% • Silicate: xx% Breakdown per composition: Red Phosphors • Nitride: xx% • Silicate: xx% Breakdown per composition: Green Phosphors • LuAG: xx% • GaYAG: xx% • Silicate: xx% • Oxynitride: xx% Breakdown per composition: Yellow Phosphors • YAG: xx% • Silicate: xx% …… ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015 Breakdown per composition: Red Phosphors • Nitride: xx% • Silicate: xx%
  17. 17. 17 AVERAGE QUANTITY OF PHOSPHOR PER LED • The table below shows our hypothesis for the average quantities of phosphors per mm2 of GaN chip for each conversion scheme.Those numbers factor in process waste and manufacturing yields. • In addition, we have considered the following factors: • Improvements over time in phosphor conversion efficiency (especially for the less mature Nitrides, Oxynitrides, PFS). • Improvement of the pump efficiency (blue chip): the # of photons delivered per mm2 of chip will increase over time, thereby also increasing the amount of phosphor required to maintain a given color point. • Various manufacturing losses and LED packaging yields. • Because of those factors, the quantity of phosphors per mm2 changes in time. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 UV Chip + RGB Red Quantity (mg) Green Quantity (mg) Blue Quantity (mg) Blue Chip +Y Yellow Quantity (mg) Blue Chip + G+Y Yellow Quantity (mg) Green Quantity (mg) Blue chip +Y + R Yellow Quantity (mg) Red Quantity (mg) Blue Chip + G+Y+R Yellow Quantity (mg) Green Quantity (mg) Red Quantity (mg) Blue Chip + G+R Green Quantity (mg) Red Quantity (mg) Blue Chip +Y + Red Chip Yellow Quantity (mg) Blue Chip + G+R (display) Green Quantity (mg) Red Quantity (mg) ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  18. 18. 18 2012-2020VOLUME FORECAST WITH REMOTE PHOSPHORS. Under our remote phosphor adoption scenario, the total volume of phosphor would increase from XXX tons in 2015 to XXX in 2020 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  19. 19. 19 MAJOR COLOR GAMUT IN THE CIE 1931 AND 1976 SPACES * the ACES AP1 standards make use of “imaginary colors” and pokes out of the color spaces (the ACES AP0 that will be used for encoding features an even broader gamut exceeding 100% of the CIE color space) April 2015 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  20. 20. 20 QUANTUM DOTS IMPLEMENTATION Edge (1D) and full surface (2D) configurations. Due to stability limitations (High flux, temperature), QD are currently used only in remote configurations • Despite significant progress over the last decade, Quantum dots still suffer from limitations in term stability when exposed to high flux of blue photons and high temperatures. Those limitations have, so far, prevented QDs from being utilized in on-chip configurations. • For display applications, 2 configurations are currently competing: Glass tube with QD Blue LED Edges: “Color IQ” Source: QDVision Full surface: “QDEF”,“QLAS” etc… Source: 3M/Nanosys Quantum Dot Enhancement Film ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  21. 21. 21 EDGEVS. FILM: COST STRUCTURE QDs are not the major contributor to the cost of the remote components. • At the full component level, we estimate that for a 55” TV produced in large volume, the additional cost resulting from the adoption of QD is around $xx for 1D solutions and $xx to $xx for film solutions depending on the backlight type (direct backlit films benefit less from photon recycling compared to edge lighting where the photons travels in the light guide plate parallel to the plane of the film). • QD components cost will drop as volume increase and QD performance and manufacturing process improve. Especially, it is expected that new generations of QD less sensitive to oxygen and humidity will be developed. Films could therefore been built without the 2 encapsulation barrier layers, allowing significant cost savings. 2D films are more expensive but more versatile and easier to implement. 1D tubes 2D sheets Edge 2D sheets Direct Backlit QD Quantity (mg) QD ASP ($/mg) Total QD cost Other components cost (glass, polymer, barrier layers, manufacturing …) Margin Total cost ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  22. 22. 22 COLOR ENCODING AND DISPLAY GAMUT From content production to deliver. The full content production and delivery chain needs to define and adopt common standards and practices to enable improved image quality for all viewers. Content creation Production - encoding Distribution / broadcasting Displays • Digital cameras. • Editing • Codecs • Connectivity (HDMI, DisplayPort, Wireless..) • Streaming • BluRay • Broadcasting • Set top boxes • TVs • Tablets • Laptops • Smartphones ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  23. 23. 23 OLED AND QD DISPLAY COMPARISON Each technology has fundamental strength and weaknesses • Ultimately, one can expect OLED to remain superior in term of contrast ratio, viewing angles and response time which, on QD-LCD displays, are all limited by the fundamentals of LCD TV designs or materials. • But continuous LCD TV technology improvements contribute to reducing the gap. Film-compensated multi-domain LC structures, polymer-stabilized blue phase liquid crystal (PS-BPLC [1]) local dimming or edge-lit ultra thin BLU are example of such improvements. The major remaining challenges for LCD would be response time (best in class are around 4ms). • Both OLED and QD-LCD are moving targets. Ultimately cost will decide if both can survive in different market segments (entry level for QD / high end for OLED) or if one will eventually dominate the whole TV market. Both technologies are moving targets: QD- LCD will strive to improve performance while OLED will attempt to reduce cost. [1]) PS-BPLC nanostructure and short coherence length could lead to LCD response < 1 ms, significantly better than current best in class LCD display at 4 ms April 2015 ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  24. 24. 24 QD-LCD 2015 SUPPLY CHAIN OVERVIEW Quantum Dots Components (Films,Tubes) BLU components & systems Display OEMs ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  25. 25. 25 TIER 1 QD SUPPLIERS PLAYERS: NANOSYS • Develops, manufactures and sells QD materials (concentrates). • 60,000 ft. facility in California with capacity to produce 20 tons of QD concentrate. • The company has 2 streams of revenue: • Sales of QD concentrates to its component partners • Royalties from sales of its component partners to display makers and OEMs. • In 2010, Nanosys received a US$15m investment from Samsung. • In 2010 and 2011, Nanosys collaborated with LG Innotek to develop QD backlight based on 1D glass tube (the “QuantumRail™”).The product received an award at the 2011 CES. Nevertheless, Nanosys later switched its component design effort toward 2D sheets. • In June 2012, Nanosys signed an agreement with the Optical system Division of 3M to commercialize Quantum Dot Enhancement Film™ (“QDEF”). • In June 2014, the company signed a similar agreement with Korean company LMS (KR). LMS will manufacture and commercialize its Quantum Light Accumulation Sheet (QLAS). • Nanosys started shipping its QD material in large volumes in 2013 to serve demand from Amazon for its Kindle Fire HDX (total: 2000 kg of QD concentrate). • Nanosys major design wins include Amazon, Hisense,Asus,VP Dynamics as well as a licensing agreement for its Cd-free technology to Samsung. • The company holds 222 worldwide granted patents + 75 more pending. 233 South Hillview Drive Milpitas, CA 95035 Phone: 408-240-6700 Fax: 408-240-6900 Email: info@nanosysinc.com ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  26. 26. 26 SEGMENT ANALYSIS FOR QD ADOPTION IN DISPLAYS Each segment have different drivers for adoption Wider color gamut would increase device consumption, a no-go for mobile phones. QD also present integration challenges. Segment Analysis Smart phone: ©2015 | www.yole.fr |Phosphor and Quantum Dots 2015
  27. 27. © 2015 From Technologies to Market Presentation of Yole Développement With Focus on LED, OLED and Sapphire Activities Corporate Presentation From Technologies to Market
  28. 28. © 2015 Yole Développement FromTechnologies to Market
  29. 29. 29 FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Our 30 analysts operate in the following areas. MEMS & Sensors LED & OLED Compound Semi. Imaging Photonics MedTech Manufacturing Advanced Packaging PV Power Electronics
  30. 30. 30 4 BUSINESS MODELS o Consulting and Analysis • Market data & research, marketing analysis • Technology analysis • Strategy consulting • Reverse engineering & costing • Patent analysis www.yole.fr o Reports • Market &Technology reports • Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis • Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis • Cost SimulationTool www.i-Micronews.com/reports o Financial services • M&A (buying and selling) • Due diligence • Fundraising • Maturation of companies • IP portfolio management & optimization www.yolefinance.com Blu Morpho o Media • i-Micronews.com website • @Micronews e-newsletter • Technology magazines • Communication & webcast services • Events www.i-Micronews.com
  31. 31. 31 A GROUP OF COMPANIES Market, technology and strategy consulting www.yole.fr M&A operations Due diligences www.yolefinance.com Fundraising Maturation of companies IP portfolio management & optimization www.bmorpho.com Manufacturing costs analysis Teardown and reverse engineering Cost simulation tools www.systemplus.fr IP analysis Patent assessment www.knowmade.fr
  32. 32. 32 OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY Yole Japan Yole Inc. Yole Korea 40% of our business is in EU countries 30% of our business is in North America 30% of our business is in Asia
  33. 33. 33 SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN Our analysts provide market analysis, technology evaluation, and business plan along the entire supply chain. Integrators and end-users Device makers Suppliers: material, equipment, OSAT, foundries… Financial investors, R&D centers
  34. 34. 34 CONTACT INFORMATION o Consulting and Specific Analysis • North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development,Yole Inc. Email: laferriere@yole.fr • Japan:Yutaka Katano, General Manager,Yole Japan & President,Yole K.K. Email: katano@yole.fr • RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, President & CEO,Yole Développement Email: eloy@yole.fr o Report business • North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development,Yole Inc. Email: laferriere@yole.fr • Europe: Fayçal El Khamassi, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service Email: khamassi@yole.fr • Japan & Asia:Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager,Yole K.K. Email: onozawa@yole.fr • Korea: HaileyYang, Business Development Manager, Korean Office Email: yang@yole.fr o Financial services • Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President Email: eloy@yole.fr o General • Email: info@yole.fr Follow us on
  35. 35. © 2015 About LED, OLED and Sapphire Activities
  36. 36. 36 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Yole is active throughout the value chain (LED and Sapphire activities) We are active throughout the value chain: from substrates to systems! And we interact with industrial / R&D players from each level! Substrate SiC / Sapphire / Silicon / Bulk GaN / Engineered substrates LED epi- wafer Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED, Vertical LED structures LED dies- on-wafer LED dies Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy • Nucleation layer • n-type layer • Active layers (MQW) • p-type layer Back-End Level 0 - Packaging • Substrate separation & Bonding • Die singulation • Testing & Binning LED systems and applications Front-end Level 1 - Device Production • Inspection • Masking / Lithography • Etching • Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors Back-End level 1 - Packaging • Die Attach & Interconnections • Phosphors • Encapsulation & Optics • Testing & Binning Packaged LEDs Module Packaging • Substrates (PCB) • Encapsulation & Optics • Heatsink • Testing & Binning LED modules
  37. 37. 37 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Insights on Forecast Methodology “What’s Behind the Crystal Ball?” Only analysts that follow the industry on a daily basis (trough interviews and developed market modeling tools based on discussions with key players of the industry. APPLICATION Forecast of standard product market volume (unit) Ex.: Smartphone, TVs, lamps (…) Definition of functions using LEDs Ex.: “Flash vs. Keypad” for smartphone (…) Definition of technical requirements Ex.: Efficacy, size (…) Definition of LED penetration rate and competitiveness with alternative technologies Ex.: “OLED vs. LED” in smartphone (…) Forecast of LED market volume (unit) Split by application, power type (low vs. medium vs. high power), package type (single vs. multi-die…) (… ) Definition of LED ASP Per power type, packaged type (…) Forecast of LED market size ($) Split by application, power type, package type (… ) Definition of manufacturing flows for front-end and packaging (process, technologies, materials, yields…) Split by application, power type, package type (…) Forecast of LED manufacturing equipment and material markets (unit and $) Ex.: Phosphors, encapsulant, dicing equipment Definition of LED die surface (mm²) Definition of substrate die surface (mm²) and epiwafer volume (unit) Split by type of substrate (…) Forecast of LED substrate markets (unit and $) Split by type of substrate (…) Definition of sale levels of key manufacturers ($) Ex: LED, packaging materials, epitaxy materials, manufacturing equipment, MOCVD reactor, substrate (…) System Plus Consulting expertise in reverse costing / reverse engineering
  38. 38. 38 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES AboutYole’s AnalystTeam A team based on persons having complementary skills and expertise. Dr. Hong LIN - Market &Technology Analyst Hong LIN holds a Ph-D in Physics and Chemistry of Materials from the University Pierre et Marie Curie (France). She works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Compound Semiconductors, Power Electronic and LED. She is also responsible for investigation on China as being fluent in Chinese. Before joining Yole Développement, she has worked as R&D Engineer (at Newstep Technologies SAS - France) and research scientist (at ONERA - French Aerospace lab). Pars MUKISH - Business Unit Manager Pars MUKISH holds a master degree in Materials Science & Polymers (ITECH - France) and a master degree in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). Since 2015, Pars MUKISH has taken on responsibility for developing LED, OLED and Sapphire activities as Business Unit Manager at Yole Développement. Previously, he has worked as Marketing Analyst and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years at the CEA (French Research Center). Dr. EricVIREY - Senior Market &Technology Analyst Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Sapphire and LED. In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic products. Dr. Milan ROSINA - Senior Market &Technology Analyst Milan ROSINA holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Energy Conversion, LED / OLED and Emerging Materials. Before joining Yole Développement, he has worked as research scientist and project manager in PV, microelectronics and LED industries. He has more than 15 year experience with prominent research institutions and a utility company.
  39. 39. 39 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Report collection Already published -Yole Développement: • Status of the LED Industry • LED in Road and Street Lighting • LED Packaging • LED Phosphors IP Investigation • LED Front End ManufacturingTrends • LED Front End Equipment Market trends • GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market From System Plus Consulting: • LED CoSim+ • Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports To be published in 2015 -Yole Développement : • 2015 UV LED - February 2015 • 2015 LED Phosphors Market andTechnologyTrends - April 2015 • 2015 Sapphire Market - June / July 2015 • Thermal management for LED and Power Electronic - Q3 2015 • 2015 High Purity Alumina (HPA) Market - Q3 2015 • LED Module (Chapter 1: LED Module Substrates) - Q3 2015 • 2015 OLED for Lighting - Q4 2014 A collection of more than 15 reports on LED, OLED and Sapphire. Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include: • Technology trends and evolution:costs, barriers, roadmaps (…). • Supply & value chain analysis:business models, relationships,value flows (…). • In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers:challenges,inflection points (…). • Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)
  40. 40. ORDER FORM Phosphors & Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters for Lighting & Displays SHIPPING CONTACT First Name: Email: Last Name: Phone: PAYMENT BY CREDIT CARD Visa Mastercard Amex Name of the Card Holder: Credit Card Number: Card Verification Value (3 digits except AMEX: 4 digits): Expiration date: BY BANK TRANSFER BANK INFO: HSBC, 1 place de la Bourse, F-69002 Lyon, France, Bank code: 30056, Branch code : 00170 Account No: 0170 200 1565  87, SWIFT or BIC code: CCFRFRPP, IBAN: FR76 3005 6001 7001 7020 0156 587 RETURN ORDER BY • FAX: +33 (0)472 83 01 83 • MAIL: YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT, Le Quartz, 75 Cours Emile Zola, 69100 Villeurbanne/Lyon - France SALES CONTACTS • North America: Steve Laferriere - laferriere@yole.fr • Japan Asia: Takashi Onozawa - onozawa@yole.fr • Europe RoW: Faycal El Khamassi - khamassi@yole.fr • Korea: Hailey Yang - yang@yole.fr • General: info@yole.fr (1) Our Terms and Conditions of Sale are available at www.yole.fr/Terms_and_Conditions_of_Sale.aspx The present document is valid 24 months after its publishing date: April 16th, 2015 / ABOUT YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT BILL TO Name (Mr/Ms/Dr/Pr): Job Title: Company: Address: City: State: Postcode/Zip: Country*: *VAT ID Number for EU members: Tel: Email: Date: PRODUCT ORDER Please enter my order for above named report : One user license*: Euro 4,990 Multi user license: Euro 5,990 For price in dollars, please use the day’s exchange rate. All reports are delivered electronically at payment reception. For French customers, add 20% for VAT I hereby accept Yole Développement’s Terms and Conditions of Sale(1) Signature: *One user license means only one person at the company can use the report. Founded in 1998, Yole Développement has grown to become a group of companies providing marketing, technology and strategy consulting, media in addition to corporate finance services. With a strong focus on emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing (technology or process), Yole Développement group has expanded to include more than 50 associates worldwide covering MEMS, Compound Semiconductors, LED, Image Sensors, Optoelectronics, Microfluidics Medical, Photovoltaics, Advanced Packaging, Manufacturing, Nanomaterials and Power Electronics. The group supports industrial companies, investors and RD organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and follow technology trends to develop their business. MEDIA EVENTS • i-Micronews.com, online disruptive technologies website • @Micronews, weekly e-newsletter • Technology Magazines dedicated to MEMS, Advanced Packaging, LED and Power Electronics • Communication webcasts services • Events: Yole Seminars, Market Briefings… More information on www.i-micronews.com CONTACTS For more information about : • Consulting Services: Jean-Christophe Eloy (eloy@yole.fr) • Financial Services: Jean-Christophe Eloy (eloy@yole.fr) • Report Business: David Jourdan (jourdan@yole.fr) • Press relations: Sandrine Leroy (leroy@yole.fr) CONSULTING • Market data research, marketing analysis • Technology analysis • Reverse engineering costing services • Strategy consulting • Patent analysis More information on www.yole.fr REPORTS • Collection of technology market reports • Manufacturing cost simulation tools • Component reverse engineering costing analysis • Patent investigation More information on www.i-micronews.com/reports FINANCIAL SERVICES • Mergers Acquisitions • Due diligence • Fundraising More information on www.yolefinance.com

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