Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics 2014 Report by Yole Developpement

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Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics

It’s time to reinforce and reshape R&D efforts to speed-up the PV business



NOW IS THE TIME FOR INNOVATION!

2012 - 2013 was a tough time for most PV manufacturers, as they faced difficulties due to strongly decreasing market prices resulting from an overcrowded market and high total manufacturing overcapacities. During this period the industry was focused on securing short-term sales, and there was little investment in new equipment and R&D activities.

But now the PV market is showing signs of renewed optimism. Investors are renewing their interest in PV start-up companies developing emerging PV technologies and applications. Equipment makers are finding new opportunities in equipment sales, either to increase production capacity in existing facilities or to build new ones. Big players, especially in China, are increasing their acquisition activities in order to secure a competitive advantage.

All of these developments open new opportunities for R&D funding, and the possibility to transfer R&D achievements into an industrial environment. At the same time, the increased performance and decreasing cost of PV components and systems will allow for new applications and wider use of PV technology for electricity generation.


PHOTOVOLTAICS: WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION?

Although photovoltaics (PV) has reached a relatively high level of technological maturity, with many PV products commercially available today, strong efforts are underway to develop new solar cell technologies, to improve the performance of existing ones and to develop new applications for solar cells.





In this report, the PV industry’s main technology and market trends are presented, and the suitability of different PV technologies (crystalline silicon, CIGS, organic PV, etc.) for various applications is analyzed - with a focus on existing potential for further innovations.

For most conventional applications, where PV serves solely to generate electricity, it’s difficult to compete with continuously improving crystalline silicon technology, which dominates the PV market (>85% market share). Therefore, most developers of alternative PV technologies are focused on other PV functionalities (flexibility, color, low-light performance, indoor light performance, etc.) and on alternative application segments. Moreover, tandem and multijunction hybrid approaches, such as a multijunction solar cell, are also being studied.

The large number of process steps in PV product manufacturing provides great potential for innovative solutions: by avoiding, replacing, improving or adding process steps and materials used, a combination of many “small” improvements can lead to better performance and lower manufacturing costs.

More information on that report at http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Emerging-Innovative-Approaches-Photovoltaics/5/441/

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Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics 2014 Report by Yole Developpement

  1. 1. © 2014 Emerging and innovative approaches in photovoltaics It’s time to reinforce and reshape the R&D efforts to speed- up the PV business 75 cours Emile Zola, 69100 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France Tel: +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax: +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr Heliatek Ascent SolarOxford Photovoltaics Schmalz Titan AerospaceSoitecREC
  2. 2. © 2014• 2 Scope of the report • The number of the technology and business approaches on all levels of the PV value chain is extremely large. • The present report focuses on the wafer, cell and module parts of the PV technologies. • Nevertheless, the reflection about PV technology and market trends is based on a global technology and applications development, thus including also: – The whole PV system costs ($/Wp, $/kWh…) – Requirements on different PV applications – Competing PV and non-PV approaches providing similar value proposition as a given PV technology/product. • This enables a very objective analysis of the applicative potential for a given technology approach and to understand the pros&cons of various innovative approaches in their global context.
  3. 3. © 2014• 3 Objectives of the report • To provide an overview of the main PV technologies and PV applications. • To identify and analyze customers’ criteria of choice for a specific PV product. • To provide an exhaustive overview of current technology trends in the PV development. • To identify where are the opportunities for innovation and their key factors for success. • To clarify how to match the technology pull with the expectations of end users.
  4. 4. © 2014• 4 Who can be interested in purchasing this report? • Investors willing to get a rapid and synthetic overview of main drivers and barriers for different PV technology approaches in order to better understand the current and future value of the companies – potential investment targets. • Large companies planning investment or having invested in solar R&D or start-up companies. The PV market has significantly evolved in the last years and learning about the driving forces for those changes and most common origins of business failures will help them to adapt their technology and business development strategies. • R&D laboratories which have to react on continuously evolving industrial environment and accordingly adapt their R&D strategy plans. • R&D labs and industrial players looking for the right start-up companies to partner with. • Start-up companies – to understand better the PV industrial environment and to identify the potential competitors and partners as well as the alternative issues for the commercialization of their technologies. • Companies willing to find new business opportunities by diversifying their application portfolio into or outside of PV market.
  5. 5. © 2014• 5 PV = a big opportunity for innovations Large volume market. Growing trends. • A large variety of PV applications • 35+ GWp annual market in 2013. A strong growth is expected for 2014. New manufacturing facilities are planned and under construction. • 130+ GWp cumulative market • PV market features a continuous growth since the last 30 years. Sustainable market • Growing electricity needs • Numerous inherent advantages of PV compared to other electricity sources Large potential for improvement • Relatively high costs and low PV conversion efficiency • Large variety of different technologies and applications • Complex manufacturing process based on many steps • Intermittent electricity generation
  6. 6. © 2014• 6 Although photovoltaics is sometimes considered as a mature technology, it still has large potential for further improvement - on cost, performance and functionality levels. Is PV a mature technology? PV as a non-mature technology • Large variety of PV technologies in production and under development • Novel approaches may lead to significantly higher efficiency compared to existing products • Still large potential for cost decrease • Continuous efficiency increase and cost decrease observed • Upstream of PV manufacturing still to be largely improved PV as a mature technology • Strong technology consolidation observed during the last 2 years • Crystalline silicon dominates the market covering >85% of demand on PV modules • PV has been successfully used in many applications • PV is being accepted as a renewable source with a strong potential for electricity generation in the future • High-end product efficiency in production close to record-lab cell efficiencies • High reliability (proven namely by satellite and remote applications) and lifetime over 25 years reached for most products • R&D trends: Upstream (wafer/cell/module)  Downstream (system, O&M…) Still a lot of place for innovation!
  7. 7. © 2014• 7 • The need for a real “Application pull” has been often neglected in the PV technologies development. • Yole identified 10 main origins of unsuccessful business related to technologies / products (other than manufacturing costs, available manufacturing capacities, geopolitical reasons, etc.): 1. Considering PV as a local business 2. Overestimation of customers’ demand for some markets / technologies 3. Neglecting the customer’s perception of value proposition for a given technology/product 4. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 5. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 6. Neglecting the effect of a “moving target” 7. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9. Innovation non-compatible with the whole production process up to the final product 10. Overestimation/underestimation of the influence of environmental aspects on the business development & product sales Important remark: An innovation ‘’failure’’ is always related to a given time. The regulation, customer needs, technologies available, and other technology and market factors may evolve in time and make successful the innovation which ‘’failed’’ in the past. A potential for high performance, low manufacturing costs or novel product functionalities is often hard to be transferred into a reality. The 10 most common origins of innovation failures – Overview
  8. 8. © 2014• 8 • Main R&D topics – Fluid dynamics – Safety improvement • Alternative application – Microelectronic industry (in the case of electronic grade polysilicon quality) Description: Instead of using seed rods (most commonly used Siemens process) for polysilicon production, FBR uses seed granules of purified silicon. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Polysilicon produced by Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) process Overview Strengths • Continuous process • Lower polysilicon costs thanks to lower energy consumption • xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx • Cost reduction of ingot production (better crucible filling and shorter process time, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx) Weaknesses • xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx • Safety issues (risk of explosion) • Difficult scaling of process due to change of fluid dynamics with reactor size Opportunities • xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx • Approaches to reduce polysilicon- ingot processing costs are intensively researched Threats • Continuously improving Siemens process Development stage in 2014 R&D Prototyping PV module prototyping Production Expected start of industrial production < 5 years 5-10 years >10 years c-Si, c-SiTF a-Si CIGS CdTe OPV DSSC III-V Other FBR process and resulting granular polysilicon mixed with chunks made by Siemens-process RECSiliconASA
  9. 9. © 2014• 9 Silicon heterojunction technology Supply Chain c-Si, c-SiTF a-Si CIGS, CZTS CdTe OPV DSSC III-V Other • Japanese Panasonic is the leader in silicon heterojunction technology. Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Other Module Cell Wafer/Substrate Material Equipment R&D lab Start-up Large industrial company
  10. 10. © 2014• 10 Flexible PV Supply Chain Other Module Cell Wafer/Substrate Equipment Material R&D lab Start-up Large industrial company / governmental agency • Despite low demand on flexible PV products, many players are somehow involved in flexible PV business. There are two reasons for this: 1. Many players consider PV as additional business opportunity: organic material suppliers, roll-to-roll equipment makers, printing equipment makers, suppliers of flexible substrates (metal/ultra-thin glass/plastic), suppliers of encapsulation and barrier materials 2. Large variety of PV technologies (a-Si, CIGS, OPV, DSSC…) and technology approaches (MOCVD, sputtering, printing…) enabling the realization of flexible cells ( and many start-up companies developing flexible PV approaches. c-Si, c-SiTF a-Si CIGS CdTe OPV DSSC III-V Other X Past players No commercially available product XX X X X Nexcis X X X
  11. 11. © 2014• 11 Ultra-thin silicon wafers Why an alternative to standard wire sawing is researched c-Si, c-SiTF a-Si CIGS CdTe OPV DSSC III-V Other • Typical sizes: 156 mm x 156 mm (6’’) and 125 mm x 125 mm (5’’) ; Typical thickness range: 160 µm – 220 µm • Today, the industrial manufacturing of crystalline silicon solar cells is based exclusively on wafers produced by sawing from the single crystal ingots or multicrystalline bricks. Solar wafers used at the beginning of the PV mass production had the thickness of about 300 µm. The typical solar wafer thickness is currently 160-220µm. • Silicon wafer represents a large part of total PV module cost and is responsible for a large amount of electricity consumed and CO2 produced. The wafer costs is related to: – Material costs: purified silicon (polysilicon) – Processing costs: ingot growth & sawing process – Material losses during the sawing: kerf losses Ingot Growth Cut Bricks Grind and Polish Bricks Sawing Feedstock (polysilicon) Ingot Wafer Solar cell PV module Pre-cleaning/ Singulation / Cleaning Crystalline silicon Photovoltaic value chain and process flow for manufacturing of standard silicon solar wafers PV system
  12. 12. © 2014• 12 Semitransparent PV modules Three different approaches to get a semitransparent PV module Dilemma: High light absorption (and thus higher PV efficiency) vs. high transparency Currently, there are three approaches to realize the semitransparent PV modules: • The semitransparency is usually obtained by an increased spacing between the cells (crystalline silicon PV) or by partially removed material in the active area (in the case of thin film modules). Therefore such “modified” PV module have lower efficiency compared to conventional (opaque) modules. • The PV products based on “naturally” transparent PV technologies (Organic solar cells, DSSC cells, very thin amorphous silicon layer…) feature low efficiency and in most cases also very short life time. Three different approaches to realize semi-transparent PV modules Yole Développement c-Si c-Si CIGS Amorphous Si Removed material in the (opaque) cell active area Increased spacing between opaque cells Partially transparent cell Organic PV
  13. 13. © 2014• 13 Manufacturing costs, Efficiency & Lifetime: All three key criteria must necessarily approach the “green zone” How to get novel solar cell approaches into industrial production High Low Low Low High High EfficiencyCosts Lifetime / reliability For some rare niche applications, a proposition value associated with other parameters (aesthetics, light weight…) can be also considered.
  14. 14. © 2014• 14 According to Yole analysis, the innovations which lead to the improvement of existing PV technologies have the largest potential for a successful industrialization. Different approaches to decrease improve the existing PV technologies by the changes within the manufacturing line. Yole Développement Where is the place for innovations? 2. Improvement of an existing PV technology 2. Improvement of an existing PV technology Process step 1 Existing manufacturing line Process step 2 Process step 3 Process step 4 Replaced equipment Added equipment Equipment upgrade Improved incoming material (wafer) Improved materials or processes Input material Final product
  15. 15. © 2014• 15 As it is very difficult to develop a new technology having advantage of either lower production costs or higher efficiency, most players focus on the development of technologies with novel features, such as color, transparency, mechanical flexibility, etc. Where is the place for innovations? 1c) New PV technology with novel features 1. New PV technology Low cost High efficiency Color Flexibility Transparency High performance at low-light conditions High performance in hot climate
  16. 16. © 2014• 16 Large companies Start-up R&D To be accepted by the industrial environment, the value proposition of a novel PV technology approach has to match the market requirements and conditions and a novel PV application has to match the existing PV technologies. The understanding of how to match the Technology PUSH and Market PULL is crucial to success in PV innovation Yole Développement How to succeed with PV innovation Technology PUSH vs. Market PULL Users O&M Installation Project Developme nt Funding Materialsuppliers&Equipmentmakers Externalconditions(legislation,market conditions…) Technology PUSH Market PULL
  17. 17. © 2014• 17 • BAPV - Building-Applied Photovoltaics - are applied on the roof of the building on top of the existing roofing elements and have no additional functionality apart from electricity production. • BIPV - Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: photovoltaic materials that are used to replace conventional building materials in parts of the building envelope such as the roof, skylights, or facades. Focus on BIPV BIPV & BAPV The main objective of BIPV is to reduce the total installed costs! BIPV costs PV costs +< Building elements costs Cost of BIPV modules is crucial! • BIPV solution must provide a clear added value (over the whole period of the BIPV project, typically >20 years): – Installation costs and complexity – Preventive and reparative maintenance costs and complexity – System performance, reliability and life time – Safety – Aesthetics, etc. <
  18. 18. © 2014• 18 Compared to a “PV source”, a higher price can be acceptable for a “PV solution”. Therefore, the developers of new PV technologies often focus on applications of those technologies in PV solutions. PV Source vs. PV Solution PV Source The electricity produced by a PV system is here typically supplied to the grid and used to supply divers electrical appliances. Key Features • PV system size not correlated to electricity needs • PV system aesthetics not very important • PV is only as one of the divers electricity sources (gas turbine, wind generator…) and the price of electricity generated by PV has to compete with the prices of electricity from other sources. • Standard products used • Mainly large-size systems • Huge market potential PV Solution The PV system is designed to power a specific appliance and is often an integrated part of it. Key Features • PV system size and properties adapted to a given application • Often based on custom-made PV products • Mainly small-size systems • Aesthetic look often desired by customers • Higher system price can be acceptable • Mainly niche markets
  19. 19. © 2014• 19 PV in Automotive Industry PV Systems as part of vehicle PV-powered Low-Speed Vehicles (LSV) PV vehicle value proposition Ascent Solar PV car roof to supply the power to pre-ventilation system Fisker Karma PV roof as an additional electricity source for HEV/EV vehicles Customized Toyota Prius Cruise Car, Inc. Key market drivers: • Strengthening CO2 - emission regulation • Growing electricity demand for ancillaries in cars • “Green image”…
  20. 20. © 2014• 20 The investment in technology approaches applicable also in other PV or non-PV products helps to some extent to lower the investment risk. How to reduce the risk related to investment into PV technology approaches? (1/3) Ultra-thin wafers mfg. techniques Crystalline silicon solar cells • Sapphire thin wafers for LED • III-V wafers for very high-efficiency solar cells • Silicon wafers for power electronics • Implantation tools for semiconductor processing • Temporary/permanent bonding (LED, PV, electronics…) • … Printing equipment & techniques Selective emitters for c-Si • OLEDs • Printing electronics CIGS Organic PV DSSCCZTS Organic material & deposition equipment (ink-jet, slot-die…) Organic PV • OLEDs • Organic electronics • Organic CMOS
  21. 21. 2012 - 2013 was a tough time for most PV manufacturers, as they faced difficulties due to strongly decreasing market prices resulting from an overcrowded market and high total manufacturing overcapacities. During this period the industry was focused on securing short-term sales, and there was little investment in new equipment and R&D activities. But now the PV market is showing signs of renewed optimism. Investors are renewing their interest in PV start-up companies developing emerging PV technologies and applications. Equipment makers are finding new opportunities in equipment sales, either to increase production capacity in existing facilities or to build new ones. Big players, especially in China, are increasing their acquisition activities in order to secure a competitive advantage. All of these developments open new opportunities for R&D funding, and the possibility to transfer R&D achievements into an industrial environment. At the same time, the increased performance and decreasing cost of PV components and systems will allow for new applications and wider use of PV technology for electricity generation. Although photovoltaics (PV) has reached a relatively high level of technological maturity, with many PV products commercially available today, strong efforts are underway to develop new solar cell technologies, to improve the performance of existing ones and to develop new applications for solar cells. In this report, the PV industry’s main technology PV Innovations Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics NOW IS THE TIME FOR INNOVATION! PHOTOVOLTAICS: WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION? Market & Technology Report REPORT OUTLINE • Title: Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics • June 2014 • Market Technology Report • PDF Excel file • €5,990 - Multi user license (225+ slides) • €3,990 - One user license (225+ slides) KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT • Overview and segmentation of PV technologies and PV applications • Analysis of the customers’ key criteria for photovoltaic products • Analysis of the main origins of innovation failures • Identification of opportunities for innovations in the PV industry • Innovation profiles: insight into some innovative PV approaches RELATED REPORTS • Thin Film Photovoltaics: CIS/ CIGS Technology Market • Thin Wafers Temporary Bonding Equipment Materials Market • Flexible Applications Based on Printed Electronics Technologies • OLED for Lighting Find all our reports on www.i-micronews.com It’s time to reinforce and reshape RD efforts to speed-up the PV business PV market technology choice: past vision and today’s reality (Yole Développement, June 2014) (Yole Développement, June 2014) A large number of process steps in PV product manufacturing provide considerable potential for innovative solutions by avoiding, replacing, improving or adding process steps and materials Simulation / Experiments Handling Materials Equipment Process Materials Equipment Process Handling Handling Handling Materials Equipment Process Materials Equipment Process Input material Process step 1 Process step 2 Process step N Final PV device Final system / application ModuleEfficiency Low Medium HighManufacturing cost 30% 20% 16% 12% Increasing efficiency Decreasing price All application areas PV mainstream crystalline silicon Thin films CIGS, CdTe, amorphous silicon... OPV, DSSC OPV,VV DSSC PV mainstream crystalline silicon (historical technology) OPV, DSSC... The development of any alternative or emerging technology faces strong competition from well-established, rapidly-improving c-Si Vision from the past Today’s reality Concentration PV (III-V) High-Concentration PV (III-V)
  22. 22. Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics To succeed at PV innovation, many criteria must be fulfilled and critical mistakes must be avoided. Based on an analysis of technology push and end- users’ needs, the main approaches to successful photovoltaics innovation are identified in this report. Also, the 10 main causes of innovation failure are presented. Although many technology developers focus on novel PV functionalities, PV module technology maturity, efficiency and system costs are still the most common criteria of choice for PV products. As detailed in this report, the criteria of choice - such as flexibility, transparency, color aspects and low-light performance - do not currently provide a proposition value high enough to develop a significant PV market. Numerous RD and industrial minds (and even dreamers too) have, throughout the decades of PV development, considered virtually all possible PV applications. As such, it’s very difficult to invent a completely new PV application. Therefore, new PV applications will most likely be based on old ideas and concepts made possible because of innovative technology approaches or new PV technologies. Innovation success depends on many technology and market-related factors. An understanding of market pull is thus extremely important. PV has reached a relatively high level of technological maturity and is now application-driven. It is the customer, not the technology developer, who decides the necessary product specifications and the best technological approach to reach the target. An accurate estimation of total accessible market, the identification of the customer’s needs, and potential applications for a given technology approach are crucial to finding the right partners, investors and customers. With plenty of existing technologies and products, some innovations encounter difficulties in becoming cost- competitive within the PV market. However, these innovations can sometimes be successfully applied in other (non-PV) applications, such as LED, OLED, compound semiconductors, printed electronics, flexible electronics and CMOS sensors. Therefore, a global understanding of technology-application relationships and market trends is very helpful for PV innovators and investors. • To provide an overview of the main PV technologies and PV applications. • To identify and analyze customers’ key criteria for a specific PV product. • To provide an exhaustive overview of current technology trends in PV development. • To identify innovation opportunities and the key factors for success. • To clarify how to best match technology pull with end users’ expectations. COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT (non-exhaustive list) 3M, Airbus, AIST, Aixtron, Amtech, Ascent Solar, Alta Devices, Applied Materials, Astronergy, Astrowatt, Bandgap Engineering, Beneq, BerkenEnergy, Bloo Solar, Canadian Solar, CEA, Choshu Industry, CrayoNano, crystalsol, CSEM, DRAPER Laboratory, ECN, Ecole Polytechnique, EMPA, Encapsulix, EPFL, First Solar, Flisom, Fraunhofer ISE, Fraunhofer CSP, GCL, Georgia Tech, Hanergy, Heliatek, Helmoltz Zentrum Berlin (HZB), ibs, imec, IMRE, INES, JAXA, Jusung, JX Crystals, Kaneka, Intevac, Lund University, MiaSolé, MBraun, Merck, Meyer Burger, MIT, NASA, NREL, NTNU, Oxford Photovoltaics, Panasonic, PGE, RDECOM, REC Silicon, REC Solar, Samsung, Samsung Fine Chemicals, SERIS, SiGen, Sigma-Aldrich, Silevo, Singulus, SMP, Soitec, Solar Frontier, Solarforce, Solaren, Solarion, Solexel, SolVoltaics, SunEdison, SunFlake, Suniva, SunPartner Technologies, Sunpower Corporation, Terra-Barrier Films, Tethers Unlimited, Total, UCLA, Veeco. HOW TO SUCCEED AT PV INNOVATION? OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT Main approaches to PV innovation (Yole Développement, June 2014) and market trends are presented, and the suitability of different PV technologies (crystalline silicon, CIGS, organic PV, etc.) for various applications is analyzed - with a focus on existing potential for further innovations. For most conventional applications, where PV serves solely to generate electricity, it’s difficult to compete with continuously improving crystalline silicon technology, which dominates the PV market (85% market share). Therefore, most developers of alternative PV technologies are focused on other PV functionalities (flexibility, color, low-light performance, indoor light performance, etc.) and on alternative application segments. Moreover, tandem and multijunction hybrid approaches, such as a multijunction solar cell, are also being studied. The large number of process steps in PV product manufacturing provides great potential for innovative solutions: by avoiding, replacing, improving or adding process steps and materials used, a combination of many “small” improvements can lead to better performance and lower manufacturing costs. Innovative approach 1. New PV technology a) Lower costs b) Higher efficiency c) Novel features 2. Improvement of an existing PV technology 3. Innovative PV application
  23. 23. Market Technology Report • Introduction 6 • Scope of the report 7 • Executive summary 11 • Key messages for a PV innovation developer 37 Advantages and disadvantages of PV - overview sources of business opportunities for innovations! Variability of the electrical power supplied by a PV system PV = a big opportunity for innovations Overview of main PV technologies Comparison of different PV technologies Ideal PV technology/device The crystalline silicon PV wins - PV market technology choice: past visions and today’s reality Large variety of PV applications PV Source vs. PV Solution Examples of PV solutions Is PV a mature technology? PV = application-driven market New manufacturing facilities = opportunity for transfer of innovations to the industry • Insight into some innovative technology approaches 57 Description of Yole’s innovation profile List of innovation profiles Yole’s positioning of the featured innovative approaches Higher efficiency lower manufacturing costs Market traction time-to-market Polysilicon produced by the Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) process Perovskite solar cells ThermoPVs (TPV) Nanowire-based solar cells Flexible PV - Overview - Why go “flexible”? - How many flexible devices do we need? - Requirements - How to get flexible? - How to develop the flexible business? - Flexible PV cell module developers and manufacturers - split by technology and deposition method - Flexible PV - supply chain Encapsulation and barrier technology solutions for flexible PV Silicon heterojunction technology Ultra-thin silicon wafers Ion-implanted-emitter c-Si solar cell Invisible transparent PV Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) • PV technology and market 109 Extraordinary 2000-2013 PV market growth Comparison of PV with nuclear power Peak-power and yearly electricity production Disadvantages of PVs PV is a “surface-related” technology “Business after business” opportunity • Overview of PV technologies 121 Solar electricity generation - three competing system technologies at a glance PV system approaches - PV CPV PV technologies - overview of active materials used in solar cells PV technologies - focus on different substrates Main PV product categories - Rigid photovoltaics - Flexible cells flexible modules Industrial module efficiencies Overview of PV technologies - potential for non-conventional applications PV technologies - state-of-the-art Development status for different PV technologies - rigid flexible PV technologies - comparison of flexible PV technologies – pros cons Semitransparent PV modules - three different approaches to creating a semitransparent PV module Semitransparent PV modules - are OPV modules really transparent? • Overview of PV applications 139 Classification of PV applications - Ground-mounted PV plants - Horizontal roofs - Pitched roofs - Facades - Semitransparent roofs and facades - Applications in transport - Applications in urban systems - Consumer applications - Military applications - Special applications Focus on BIPV - BIPV BAPV - Why does BIPV remain a niche market? Which technology for which application? • Where is the potential for innovations? 155 - Criteria for a PV technology/device choice - Why is crystalline silicon PV so successful? - Where are the opportunities for alternatives to crystalline silicon PV? - Innovation vs. technology breakthrough - What are the necessary conditions for successful innovation? - How to succeed with PV innovation - The key criteria for getting novel cell approaches into industrial production - How to get novel solar cell approaches into industrial production - The 10 most common origins of innovation failures – overview 1. Considering PV as a local business 2. Overestimation of customer demand for some markets/technologies 3. Neglecting the customer’s perception of value proposition for a given technology/ product 4. Underestimating competing alternative (including non-PV) solutions 5. Large PV market potential is not equal to large PV market potential for a specific technology/product 6. Neglecting the “moving target” effect 7. Dependence on “temporary opportunity windows” 8. Underestimation of technological complexity for new PV approaches 9. Innovation non-compatible with the whole production process up to the final product Example of ultra-thin wafers 10. Underestimation/overestimation of environmental issues - Concluding remarks Diverse strategies to success Trends towards higher PV conversion efficiency Many process steps = many opportunities for innovation Example of the crystalline silicon PV value- chain Where is the place for innovations? - New PV technology 1. Available at lower manufacturing costs 2. With higher PV conversion efficiency 3. With novel features - Improving an existing PV technology 1. Where is the potential for improvement? 2. Catching up the technology lead? - Is there still a place for innovation in PV applications? Examples of unusual PV applications PV electricity production for clean mobility PV in the automotive industry More potential applications = lower RD and business development risk How to reduce the risk related to investment in PV technology approaches? • PV RD activities and main players 218 What is the best time for innovation? Do we need public funding for “mature” technologies? Main PV RD institutions Large companies with strong PV RD • Conclusions 224 TABLE OF CONTENTS AUTHOR Dr. Milan Rosina is Technology and Market Analyst for photovoltaics, LEDs, compound semiconductors and nanotechnologies. Dr. Rosina received his Ph. D. in 2002 from the INPG in France. Before joining Yole Développement, he worked as a research scientist and a project manager in the fields of photovoltaics, microelectronics, LED and nanotechnology. He has more than 15 years of scientific and industrial experience with prominent research institutions and industrial companies, and his expertise includes new equipment and process development, technology due diligence, technology and market surveys and elaboration of technology roadmaps. He is also co-author of two issued patents in the field of solar cell processing.
  24. 24. ORDER FORM Emerging and Innovative Approaches in Photovoltaics SHIPPING CONTACT First Name: Email: Last Name: Phone: PAYMENT BY CREDIT CARD Visa Mastercard Amex Name of the Card Holder: Credit Card Number: Card Verification Value (3 digits except AMEX: 4 digits): Expiration date: BY BANK TRANSFER BANK INFO: HSBC, 1 place de la Bourse, F-69002 Lyon, France, Bank code: 30056, Branch code : 00170 Account No: 0170 200 1565  87, SWIFT or BIC code: CCFRFRPP, IBAN: FR76 3005 6001 7001 7020 0156 587 RETURN ORDER BY • FAX: +33 (0)472 83 01 83 • MAIL: YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT, Le Quartz, 75 Cours Emile Zola, 69100 Villeurbanne/Lyon - France SALES CONTACTS • North America: Jeff Edwards - edwards@yole.fr • Asia: Takashi Onozawa - onozawa@yole.fr • Europe RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy - eloy@yole.fr • Korea: Hailey Yang - yang@yole.fr • General: info@yole.fr (1) Our Terms and Conditions of Sale are available at www.yole.fr/Terms_and_Conditions_of_Sale.aspx The present document is valid 24 months after its publishing date: June 4th , 2014 / ABOUT YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT BILL TO Name (Mr/Ms/Dr/Pr): Job Title: Company: Address: City: State: Postcode/Zip: Country*: *VAT ID Number for EU members: Tel: Email: Date: PRODUCT ORDER Please enter my order for above named report : One user license*: Euro 3,990 Multi user license: Euro 5,990 For price in dollars, please use the day’s exchange rate. All reports are delivered electronically at payment reception. For French customers, add 20% for VAT I hereby accept Yole Développement’s Terms and Conditions of Sale(1) Signature: *One user license means only one person at the company can use the report. Please be aware that our publication will be watermarked on each page with the name of the recipient and of the organization (the name mentioned on the PO). This watermark will also mention that the report sharing is not allowed. Founded in 1998, Yole Développement has grown to become a group of companies providing marketing, technology and strategy consulting, media in addition to corporate finance services. With a strong focus on emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing (technology or process), Yole Développement group has expanded to include more than 50 associates worldwide covering MEMS, Compound Semiconductors, LED, Image Sensors, Optoelectronics, Microfluidics Medical, Photovoltaics, Advanced Packaging, Manufacturing, Nanomaterials and Power Electronics. The group supports industrial companies, investors and RD organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and follow technology trends to develop their business. MEDIA EVENTS • i-Micronews.com, online disruptive technologies website • @Micronews, weekly e-newsletter • Technology Magazines dedicated to MEMS, Advanced Packaging, LED and Power Electronics • Communication webcasts services • Events: Yole Seminars, Market Briefings… More information on www.i-micronews.com CONTACTS For more information about : • Consulting Services: Jean-Christophe Eloy (eloy@yole.fr) • Financial Services: Géraldine Andrieux-Gustin (andrieux@yole.fr) • Report Business: David Jourdan (jourdan@yole.fr) • Corporate Communication: Sandrine Leroy (leroy@yole.fr) CONSULTING • Market data research, marketing analysis • Technology analysis • Reverse engineering costing services • Strategy consulting • Patent analysis More information on www.yole.fr REPORTS • Collection of technology market reports • Manufacturing cost simulation tools • Component reverse engineering costing analysis • Patent investigation More information on www.i-micronews.com/reports FINANCIAL SERVICES • Mergers Acquisitions • Due diligence • Fundraising • Coaching of emerging companies • IP portfolio management optimization More information on www.yolefinance.com
  25. 25. Definitions: “Acceptance”: Action by which the Buyer accepts the terms and conditions of sale in their entirety. It is done by signing the purchase order which mentions “I hereby accept Yole’s Terms and Conditions of Sale”. “Buyer”: Any business user (i.e. any person acting in the course of its business activities, for its business needs) entering into the following general conditions to the exclusion of consumers acting in their personal interests. “Contracting Parties” or “Parties”: The Seller on the one hand and the Buyer on the other hand. “Intellectual Property Rights” (“IPR”) means any rights held by the Seller in its Products, including any patents, trademarks, registered models, designs, copyrights, inventions, commercial secrets and know-how, technical information, company or trading names and any other intellectual property rights or similar in any part of the world, notwithstanding the fact that they have been registered or not and including any pending registration of one of the above mentioned rights. “License”: For the reports and databases, 3 different licenses are proposed. The buyer has to choose one license: • One user license: one person at the company can use the report. • Multi-user license: the report can be used by unlimited users within the company. Subsidiaries and Joint-Ventures are not included. • Corporate license: purchased under “Annual Subscription” program, the report can be used by unlimited users within the company. Joint-Ventures are not included. “Products”: Depending on the purchase order, reports or database on MEMS, CSC, Optics/MOEMS, Nano, bio… to be bought either on a unit basis or as an annual subscription. (i.e. subscription for a period of 12 calendar months). The annual subscription to a package (i.e. a global discount based on the number of reports that the Buyer orders or accesses via the service, a global search service on line on I-micronews and a consulting approach), is defined in the order. Reports are established in PowerPoint and delivered on a PDF format and the database may include Excel files. “Seller”: Based in Lyon (France headquarters), Yole Développement is a market research and business development consultancy company, facilitating market access for advanced technology industrial projects. With more than 20 market analysts, Yole works worldwide with the key industrial companies, RD institutes and investors to help them understand the markets and technology trends. 1. SCOPE 1.1 The Contracting Parties undertake to observe the following general conditions when agreed by the Buyer and the Seller. ANY ADDITIONAL, DIFFERENT, OR CONFLICTING TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN ANY OTHER DOCUMENTS ISSUED BY THE BUYER AT ANY TIME ARE HEREBY OBJECTED TO BY THE SELLER, SHALL BE WHOLLY INAPPLICABLE TO ANY SALE MADE HEREUNDER AND SHALL NOT BE BINDING IN ANY WAY ON THE SELLER. 1.2 This agreement becomes valid and enforceable between the Contracting Parties after clear and non-equivocal consent by any duly authorized person representing the Buyer. For these purposes, the Buyer accepts these conditions of sales when signing the purchase order which mentions “I hereby accept Yole’s Terms and Conditions of Sale”. This results in acceptance by the Buyer. 1.3 Orders are deemed to be accepted only upon written acceptance and confirmation by the Seller, within [7 days] from the date of order, to be sent either by email or to the Buyer’s address. In the absence of any confirmation in writing, orders shall be deemed to have been accepted. 2. MAILING OF THE PRODUCTS 2.1 Products are sent by email to the Buyer: • within [1] month from the order for Products already released; or • within a reasonable time for Products ordered prior to their effective release. In this case, the Seller shall use its best endeavours to inform the Buyer of an indicative release date and the evolution of the work in progress. 2.2 Some weeks prior to the release date the Seller can propose a pre-release discount to the Buyer The Seller shall by no means be responsible for any delay in respect of article 2.2 above, and including incases where a new event or access to new contradictory information would require for the analyst extra time to compute or compare the data in order to enable the Seller to deliver a high quality Products. 2.3 The mailing of the Product will occur only upon payment by the Buyer, in accordance with the conditions contained in article 3. 2.4. The mailing is operated through electronic means either by email via the sales department or automatically online via an email/password. If the Product’s electronic delivery format is defective, the Seller undertakes to replace it at no charge to the Buyer provided that it is informed of the defective formatting within 90 days from the date of the original download or receipt of the Product. 2.5 The person receiving the Products on behalf of the Buyer shall immediately verify the quality of the Products and their conformity to the order. Any claim for apparent defects or for non-conformity shall be sent in writing to the Seller within 8 days of receipt of the Products. For this purpose, the Buyer agrees to produce sufficient evidence of such defects. . 2.6 No return of Products shall be accepted without prior information to the Seller, even in case of delayed delivery. Any Product returned to the Seller without providing prior information to the Seller as required under article 2.5 shall remain at the Buyer’s risk. 3. PRICE, INVOICING AND PAYMENT 3.1 Prices are given in the orders corresponding to each Product sold on a unit basis or corresponding to annual subscriptions. They are expressed to be inclusive of all taxes. The prices may be reevaluated from time to time. The effective price is deemed to be the one applicable at the time of the order. 3.2 Yole may offer a pre release discount for the companies willing to acquire in the future the specific report and agreeing on the fact that the report may be release later than the anticipated release date. In exchange to this uncertainty, the company will get a discount that can vary from 15% to 10%. 3.3 Payments due by the Buyer shall be sent by cheque payable to Yole Développement, credit card or by electronic transfer to the following account: HSBC, 1 place de la Bourse 69002 Lyon France Bank code: 30056 Branch code: 00170 Account n°: 0170 200 1565 87 BIC or SWIFT code: CCFRFRPP IBAN: FR76 3005 6001 7001 7020 0156 587 To ensure the payments, the Seller reserves the right to request down payments from the Buyer. In this case, the need of down payments will be mentioned on the order. 3.4 Payment is due by the Buyer to the Seller within 30 days from invoice date, except in the case of a particular written agreement. If the Buyer fails to pay within this time and fails to contact the Seller, the latter shall be entitled to invoice interest in arrears based on the annual rate Refi of the «BCE» + 7 points, in accordance with article L. 441-6 of the French Commercial Code. Our publications (report, database, tool...) are delivered only after reception of the payment. 3.5 In the event of termination of the contract, or of misconduct, during the contract, the Seller will have the right to invoice at the stage in progress, and to take legal action for damages. 4. LIABILITIES 4.1 The Buyer or any other individual or legal person acting on its behalf, being a business user buying the Products for its business activities, shall be solely responsible for choosing the Products and for the use and interpretations he makes of the documents it purchases, of the results he obtains, and of the advice and acts it deduces thereof. 4.2 The Seller shall only be liable for (i) direct and (ii) foreseeable pecuniary loss, caused by the Products or arising from a material breach of this agreement 4.3 In no event shall the Seller be liable for: a) damages of any kind, including without limitation, incidental or consequential damages (including, but not limited to, damages for loss of profits, business interruption and loss of programs or information) arising out of the use of or inability to use the Seller’s website or the Products, or any information provided on the website, or in the Products; b) any claim attributable to errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the Product or interpretations thereof. 4.4 All the information contained in the Products has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The Seller does not warrant the accuracy, completeness adequacy or reliability of such information, which cannot be guaranteed to be free from errors. 4.5 All the Products that the Seller sells may, upon prior notice to the Buyer from time to time be modified by or substituted with similar Products meeting the needs of the Buyer. This modification shall not lead to the liability of the Seller, provided that the Seller ensures the substituted Product is similar to the Product initially ordered. 4.6 In the case where, after inspection, it is acknowledged that the Products contain defects, the Seller undertakes to replace the defective products as far as the supplies allow and without indemnities or compensation of any kind for labor costs, delays, loss caused or any other reason. The replacement is guaranteed for a maximum of two months starting from the delivery date. Any replacement is excluded for any event as set out in article 5 below. 4.7 The deadlines that the Seller is asked to state for the mailing of the Products are given for information only and are not guaranteed. If such deadlines are not met, it shall not lead to any damages or cancellation of the orders, except for non acceptable delays exceeding [4] months from the stated deadline, without information from the Seller. In such case only, the Buyer shall be entitled to ask for a reimbursement of its first down payment to the exclusion of any further damages. 4.8 The Seller does not make any warranties, express or implied, including, without limitation, those of sale ability and fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to the Products. Although the Seller shall take reasonable steps to screen Products for infection of viruses, worms, Trojan horses or other codes containing contaminating or destructive properties before making the Products available, the Seller cannot guarantee that any Product will be free from infection. 5. FORCE MAJEURE The Seller shall not be liable for any delay in performance directly or indirectly caused by or resulting from acts of nature, fire, flood, accident, riot, war, government intervention, embargoes, strikes, labor difficulties, equipment failure, late deliveries by suppliers or other difficulties which are beyond the control, and not the fault of the Seller. 6. PROTECTION OF THE SELLER’S IPR 6.1 All the IPR attached to the Products are and remain the property of the Seller and are protected under French and international copyright law and conventions. 6.2 The Buyer agreed not to disclose, copy, reproduce, redistribute, resell or publish the Product, or any part of it to any other party other than employees of its company. The Buyer shall have the right to use the Products solely for its own internal information purposes. In particular, the Buyer shall therefore not use the Product for purposes such as: • Information storage and retrieval systems; • Recordings and re-transmittals over any network (including any local area network); • Use in any timesharing, service bureau, bulletin board or similar arrangement or public display; • Posting any Product to any other online service (including bulletin boards or the Internet); • Licensing, leasing, selling, offering for sale or assigning the Product. 6.3 The Buyer shall be solely responsible towards the Seller of all infringements of this obligation, whether this infringement comes from its employees or any person to whom the Buyer has sent the Products and shall personally take care of any related proceedings, and the Buyer shall bear related financial consequences in their entirety. 6.4 The Buyer shall define within its company point of contact for the needs of the contract. This person will be the recipient of each new report in PDF format. This person shall also be responsible for respect of the copyrights and will guaranty that the Products are not disseminated out of the company. 6.5 In the context of annual subscriptions, the person of contact shall decide who within the Buyer, shall be entitled to access on line the reports on I-micronews.com. In this respect, the Seller will give the Buyer a maximum of 10 password, unless the multiple sites organization of the Buyer requires more passwords. The Seller reserves the right to check from time to time the correct use of this password. 6.6 In the case of a multisite, multi license, only the employee of the buyer can access the report or the employee of the companies in which the buyer have 100% shares. As a matter of fact the investor of a company, the joint venture done with a third party etc..cannot access the report and should pay a full license price. 7. TERMINATION 7.1 If the Buyer cancels the order in whole or in part or postpones the date of mailing, the Buyer shall indemnify the Seller for the entire costs that have been incurred as at the date of notification by the Buyer of such delay or cancellation. This may also apply for any other direct or indirect consequential loss that may be borne by the Seller, following this decision. 7.2 In the event of breach by one Party under these conditions or the order, the non-breaching Party may send a notification to the other by recorded delivery letter upon which, after a period of thirty (30) days without solving the problem, the non- breaching Party shall be entitled to terminate all the pending orders, without being liable for any compensation. 8. MISCELLANEOUS All the provisions of these Terms and Conditions are for the benefit of the Seller itself, but also for its licensors, employees and agents. Each of them is entitled to assert and enforce those provisions against the Buyer. Any notices under these Terms and Conditions shall be given in writing. They shall be effective upon receipt by the other Party. The Seller may, from time to time, update these Terms and Conditions and the Buyer, is deemed to have accepted the latest version of these terms and conditions, provided they have been communicated to him in due time. 9. GOVERNING LAW AND JURISDICTION 9.1 Any dispute arising out or linked to these Terms and Conditions or to any contract (orders) entered into in application of these Terms and Conditions shall be settled by the French Commercial Courts of Lyon, which shall have exclusive jurisdiction upon such issues. 9.2 French law shall govern the relation between the Buyer and the Seller, in accordance with these Terms and Conditions. TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF SALES 

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