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TAAI 2016 Keynote Talk: Contention and Disruption

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TAAI 2016 Keynote Talk: Contention and Disruption

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By Prof. H. Jaap van den Herik from Leiden Centre of Data Science, Leiden University && Digital Technology for Law and Society, Leiden University

By Prof. H. Jaap van den Herik from Leiden Centre of Data Science, Leiden University && Digital Technology for Law and Society, Leiden University

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TAAI 2016 Keynote Talk: Contention and Disruption

  1. 1. Discover the world at Leiden University The 2016 Conference on Hsinchu, Taiwan, Keynote speech TAAI 2016 Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligence 27 November 2016 (TAAI 2016) Contention and Disruption H. Jaap van den Herik Leiden Centre of Data Science Digital Technology for Law and Society (LCDS) (elaw) Leiden University Leiden University TAAI 2016: National Tsing Hua University
  2. 2. Discover the world at Leiden University Acknowledgements With much pleasure I would like to thank I-Chen Wu and the Taiwanese Association for Artificial Intelligence for the invitation and Cindy Ko for the organisation of many details. Research is team work over a long period of time. Therefore any list of collaborators is large. Below I provide a selection. For their contributions and inspiration, I would like to thank: I-Chen Wu, Aja Huang, S.C. Hsu, Tsan-sjeng Hsu, Hiroyuki Iida, Erik van der Werf, Victor Allis, Mark Winands, Jeroen Donkers, Levente Kocsis, Dennis Breuker, Jahn Saito, Guillaume Chaslot, Jos Uiterwijk, Daniel Dennett, Adriaan de Groot, Joost Kok, Jacqueline Meulman, Aske Plaat, Michel Rademaker, Bart Custers, Cor Veenman, Cees de Laat, members of the research school SIKS, members of LCDS, Joke Hellemons, Eric Postma.
  3. 3. Discover the world at Leiden University Contents 1. Contention (1950-1990) 2. Notions and Developments 3. Four Methodological Leaders 4. A Paradigm Shift 5. Provisional Conclusions 6. Disruption (1990-2030) 7. Innovation and Nearby Innovations 8. Four Conceptual Leaders 9. Go for Go for TAAI 10.Conclusions
  4. 4. Discover the world at Leiden University Contention (1950-1990-2010) In the academic world: Contention means: (a) rivalry or competition (b) a point contended for in a scientific debate We consider both meanings
  5. 5. Discover the world at Leiden University Other Notions - Scientific Findings Discoveries Revolutions - A Paradigm Shift - Intuitions
  6. 6. Discover the world at Leiden University Intuitions 1. New Developments: (a) Clouds (b) Crowds: - Crowdsourcing - The Wisdom of the Crowd 2. Refinements: (c) WATSON 3. Opponents: (d) Games
  7. 7. Discover the world at Leiden University Prevailing Question on Contention Will Contention between Paradigms lead to a Paradigm Shift? - A refinement of definitions is necessary. What is - contention - a paradigm - a paradigm shift ? 7
  8. 8. Discover the world at Leiden University Two Well-known Paradigm Shifts (1)From Ptolemaic Cosmology to Copernican Cosmology (2) From Newton’s physics to Einstein’s relativistic theory And maybe: (3) Erik Verlinde (2016) Emergent Gravity and the Dark Universe
  9. 9. Discover the world at Leiden University Scientific Discoveries Karl Popper (1902 - 1994): The Logic of Scientific Discovery Thomas Kuhn (1929 – 1996): The Structure of Scientific Revolutions Imre Lakatos (1922 – 1974): The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes Paul Feyerabend (1924 - 1994): Against Methods
  10. 10. Discover the world at Leiden University Four Methodological Leaders Karl Popper Thomas Kuhn Imre Lakatos Paul Feyerabend
  11. 11. Discover the world at Leiden University Due Credit to the Great Men Karl Popper (1934). Logik der Forschung. English translation (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Basic Books, New York, N.Y. Thomas Kuhn (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press. Chicago, IL. Imre Lakatos, John Worall, and Gregory Currie (1980). The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge University Press, USA. Imre Lakatos (1976) Proofs and Refutations: The Logic of Mathematical Discovery. Cambridge University Press, USA. Paul Feyerabend (1975). Against Method. New Left Books, London, UK. Imre Lakatos, Paul Feyerabend, and Matteo Matterlini (1999). For and Against Methods. University of Chicago Press, USA.
  12. 12. Discover the world at Leiden University Four Scientific Domains 1. Games Rivals: Minimax and Monte Carlo Tree Search 2. (Super)computers Rivals: Personal computing and Cloud Computing (workstations inclusive) 3. WATSON Rivals: Human Intellect and WATSON 4. eBay Rivals (three): (a) Human Decision (b) Computer Decision (c) Crowdsourced Online Dispute Resolution
  13. 13. Discover the world at Leiden University The World of Games From Chess to Go From Minimax to MCTS Is this a Paradigm Shift ?
  14. 14. Discover the world at Leiden University Scientific Breakthroughs on Computers and Games John von Neumann (1903-1957): Theory of Games and Economic Behavior Claude Shannon (1916-2001): Chess Programming / Information Theory Alan Turing (1912-1954): Turing Machine
  15. 15. Discover the world at Leiden University Three Leaders in Computer Science John von Neumann Claude Shannon Alan Turing
  16. 16. Discover the world at Leiden University Five Challenging Questions 1. Can a computer play Chess and Go? 2. Can a computer play at grandmaster level? 3. Can a computer defeat the human world champion? 4. Can a computer solve the game? 5. Are some generic ideas applicable elsewhere?
  17. 17. Discover the world at Leiden University 17 Minimax 3 4 2 7 3 2 [3]
  18. 18. Discover the world at Leiden University α-β Algorithm 3 4 2 7 3 3 2 β-pruning
  19. 19. Discover the world at Leiden University The Strength of α-β 3 4 2 More than thousand prunings
  20. 20. Discover the world at Leiden University The Importance of α-β Algorithm 3 4 2 β-pruning 3 3
  21. 21. Discover the world at Leiden University 21 THE NUMBER OF DIFFERENT, REACHABLE POSITIONS IN CHESS IS (CHINCHALKAR): 1046 Tromp (2016): for Go it is 10172 The Possibilities of Chess
  22. 22. Discover the world at Leiden University A Calculation (around 2000) NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES: 1046 SAVINGS BY α-Β ALGORITHM: 1023 1000 PARALLEL PROCESSORS: 103 POSITIONS PER SECOND: 109 LEADS TO: 1023-12 = 1011 SECONDS A CENTURY IS 109 SECONDS SOLVING CHESS: 102 CENTURIES SO 100 CENTURIES OR 10,000 YEARS WE RETURN TO THIS NUMBER.
  23. 23. Discover the world at Leiden University Improvements on the Estimate • MATJAŽ GAMS (30 August 2005) In 2035 a machine takes 4 months to solve chess. • VINCENT DIEPEVEEN (27 October 2005) In 2066 the game of chess is solved.
  24. 24. Discover the world at Leiden University The Impact of Moore’s Law GAMS AND DIEPEVEEN RELY ON MOORE’S LAW Every 18 months the computer capacity is doubled. Therefore in 30 years (30 = 20 x 1.5) the law gives a speed up of 220 = 106
  25. 25. Discover the world at Leiden University A New Calculation (2010) NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES: 1046 SAVINGS BY α-Β ALGORITHM: 1023 1000 PARALLEL PROCESSORS: 103 POSITIONS PER SECOND: 1014 (9+6=15; 15-1=14) LEADS TO: 1023-17 = 106 SECONDS A CENTURY IS 109 SECONDS SOLVING CHESS: 10-3 CENTURIES So roughly 37 days in 2035. This is for Chess.
  26. 26. Discover the world at Leiden University When will Go be solved? Open Question After 2050, if it may happen at all. This opinion is supported by an old sheet from 2011.
  27. 27. Discover the world at Leiden University OLD SHEET (2011) FUTURE EXPECTATIONS • MoGo-Titan defeats a top Go player in • 2008 9 – stones handicap • 2009 - 8 – stones handicap • 2010 - 7 – stones handicap • 2011 - 6 – stones handicap so far OK • 2012 - 5 – stones handicap • 2014 - 4 – stones handicap • 2016 - 3 – stones handicap • 2018 - 2 – stones handicap • 2019 - 1 – stones handicap • 2020 - ERICA defeats the human Go World Champion The singularity point in Go is reached
  28. 28. Discover the world at Leiden University Two Related Questions (1)Is MCTS reflective of Kuhn’s viewpoint? (2)Is MCTS a result of Feyerabend’s view?
  29. 29. Discover the world at Leiden University Provisional Conclusions on a Paradigm Shift for Games (1)From Chess to Go is a shift of focus (not a paradigm shift) (2) From Minimax to MCTS is/comes closer to a paradigm shift It weakly fulfils the conditions of a paradigm shift (using a new framework, using a new technology). [ see Newton – Einstein – Verlinde]
  30. 30. Discover the world at Leiden University Disruption (1990-2016-2030) Disruption is the successor of Contention. Disruption means (a) the change that occurs when new digital technologies and business models affect the value propositions of existing goods and services (b) the displacement of an existing technology (market or industry) by something completely new and more efficient and more worth while.
  31. 31. Discover the world at Leiden University Prevailing Question on Disruption Will Disruption lead to the emergence of a New Paradigm? - A refinement of definitions is necessary, e.g., Innovation vs. Disruption - What is the difference between - (a) a paradigm shift, and - (b) a new paradigm?
  32. 32. Discover the world at Leiden University Announcements of Disruptive Thoughts Daniël Dennett (1990): Consciousness Explained Richard Susskind (1998): Robot Doctors and Robot Lawyers Nick Bostrom (2014): Superintelligence Jaap van den Herik (2016): Intuition is Programmable
  33. 33. Discover the world at Leiden University Four Announcers of Disruptive Thoughts Daniel Dennett Richard Susskind Nick Bostrom Jaap van den Herik
  34. 34. Discover the world at Leiden University Nine (Nearby) Innovations • Elon Musk: autonomous cars • Richard Susskind: robot doctors and lawyers • Nikolaos Aletras et al.: AI Judge • Block Chain: bitcoins • Internet of Things • Drones • Crowdsourced Online Dispute Resolution • Uber Taxi • AirBnb • What is a disruptive innovation?
  35. 35. Discover the world at Leiden University Ethical Decisions by Intelligent Programs - Autonomous cars - Elon Musk
  36. 36. Discover the world at Leiden University Robot doctors and lawyers? It’s a change we should embrace Richard Susskind Nov. 2015
  37. 37. Discover the world at Leiden University A Da Vinci surgical robot performs a procedure at the Charles Nicolle hospital in Rouen. Nov. 2015
  38. 38. Discover the world at Leiden University PeerJ Computer Science 2:e93 October 24, 2016 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.93
  39. 39. Discover the world at Leiden University Big Data Discovery is the combination of Big Data, Data Science and Data Discovery (Source Gartner)
  40. 40. Discover the world at Leiden University The Fifth Breakthrough (Source Gartner)
  41. 41. Discover the world at Leiden University Intuition Two key Questions: What is Intuition? Is Intuition Programmable? Definition 1 (Rorty): "Intuition is unjustified false belief not preceded by inference; in this (the commonest) sense 'an intuition' means 'a hunch'. The existence of hunches is uncontroversial and not of philosophical interest."
  42. 42. Discover the world at Leiden University Two more definitions (1) Definition by Poincaré (1913) Definition by Euwe (Tilburg, 1964) "The essential element of playing chess at a high level is inspiration. The skill competence of a chess player is based on a multitude of factors, such as directly accessible knowledge, memory, accuracy, ability for combinations, but especially on consolidated experience. De Groot considers the latter as indicative for the distinction between master and non-master. Yet, there are chess masters who (in brief) know everything and see everything and still never will succeed in reaching the highest echelons. It is said that they do not have sufficient imagination. It is thought that these players do not have from time to time a lucid thought, say a hunch." [Emphasis added by vdH]
  43. 43. Discover the world at Leiden University Two more definitions (2) Definition 2 (De Groot): "Intuition is having judgements (or making decisions) in a manner that cannot be made explicit." Definition 3 (Michie): "Intuition is simply a name for rule-based behaviour where the rules are not accessible for consciousness."
  44. 44. Discover the world at Leiden University The Place of Intuition Four forms of intuition are • Mental intuition, • Physical intuition, • Emotional intuition, and • Environmental intuition.
  45. 45. Discover the world at Leiden University The Model by McWhinney Grammars of Engagement THE FOUR MODES SOURCE DETERMINED VOLUNTARISTIC REFERENCES & COMMENTS FOUR REALITIES Unitary Sensory Social Mythic McWhinney (1984). BUDDHIST Samjña Rupa Vedana Samskara Conze (1951). PLATO Reason Understanding Opinion Perception (faith) of Shadows Jowett’s terms from The Republic and Gilbert Ryle (1967). GOSPELS Matthew Mark Luke John (Lion) (Ox) (Man) (Eagle) The parallels were observed and analyzed by John Lai (1996). The metaphors are from Revelation, 4:7. LAKOTA INDIAN North South West East (Buffalo) (Mouse) (Bear) (Eagle) Storm (1972) writing from a Plains Indian worldview. JUNG Thinking Sensing Feeling Intuiting Jung’s Personality Types (1920). LESHAN Clairvoyant Sensory Transpsychic Mythic Lawrence LeShan (1976). Descriptions of exceptional people. HERMANN Left Left Right Right Cerebral Limbic Limbic Cerebral Ned Hermann (1989). LATOUR Being External Social Signification Reality Bond and Meaning Bruno Latour (1991).
  46. 46. Discover the world at Leiden University From McWhinney Back to Jung (1920) Focussing on Intuition I-Chen Wu Letty Raaphorst Aja Huang Jaap van den Herik Thinking Intuiting Sensing Feeling An Instantiation of the Four Modes
  47. 47. Discover the world at Leiden University Three Friends in the Future • Big Data • High Performance Computing • Deep Learning
  48. 48. Discover the world at Leiden University Roadmap to Deep Learning Artificial Intelligence 1950-1990 Machine Learning 1990-2000 Adaptivity 2000-2005 Dimension Reduction 2005-2010 Deep Learning 2010-2015 Big Data & HPC 2012-2017 New Statistics 2014-2019
  49. 49. Discover the world at Leiden University Go for Go for TAAI Back to Go Back to Aja Huang to Google DeepMind
  50. 50. Discover the world at Leiden University Google DeepMind 2016
  51. 51. Discover the world at Leiden University Differences between Chess and Go Chess Go Game complexity 10^46 10^172 Tree evaluation strong point weak point Search method minimax (α-β) MCTS +enhancement +enhancement Breakthrough Tuning parameters Big Data Search enhancements Unsupervised Reinforcement Learning HPC HPC+ Currently Komodo 3400 Elo pts AlphaGo defeats Fan Hui Carlson 2851 Elo pts 5-0 (October 2015) and Lee Sedol 4-1(March 2016)
  52. 52. Discover the world at Leiden University Match 1: Lee Sedol vs Alpha Go
  53. 53. Discover the world at Leiden University Game 4: Lee Sedol vs Alpha Go after move 79
  54. 54. Discover the world at Leiden University Lee Sedol wins Game 4 from AlphaGo
  55. 55. Discover the world at Leiden University From Erica to AlphaGo
  56. 56. Discover the world at Leiden University Lee Sedol Congratulates Hassabis
  57. 57. Discover the world at Leiden University CONCLUSIONS ON GAMES 1. Computers will solve a range of games. 2. New games will emerge. 3. Humans will continuously learn from computers. 4. The Games Research will envisage new games and even more new computer techniques.
  58. 58. Discover the world at Leiden University CONCLUSIONS ON AI The new emerging paradigm is: Understanding the Intuition of a Network that results from a Deep Learning procedure In summary, Our world is moving from decisions made by humans to decisions made by computers.
  59. 59. Discover the world at Leiden University THE FUTURE • In 2025, an AI-program is clever, but not very clever • In 2035, an AI-judge makes verdicts in plain cases • In 2050, robots will outperform human soccer teams • In 2080, AI-judges are more competent in ethical decisions than humans • After 84 years, an AI-program will act as a full professor in all disciplines
  60. 60. Discover the world at Leiden University ADVICE The new future is NOT the end of making decisions (judge, manager, game player or professor). Both humans and robots will: - address and solve new challenges - improve their experience - develop fully new tracks. This is a promising perspective.

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