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Courses of action to pass an Immigration Reform (RNC)


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This presentation was part of the 4 Week Program at George Washington University. It contains three courses of action for the Republican Party to pass an Immigration Reform in a context of near mid-term elections (2014) and the need of gaining more Latino support for the Presidential elections (2016).

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Courses of action to pass an Immigration Reform (RNC)

  1. 1. Immigration Reform Courses of Action for the Republican Party
  2. 2. 1. Executive Summary - 40 million people that live in the US are foreign-born. More than 11 million are undocumented. - This is one of the most hot topics of the current political agenda. - Many political, social and economic leaders have spoken out about the urgency of reforming the Immigration System.
  3. 3. 2. Strategic Interest  Relevant from an economic, social, security and labor point of view.  Important companies and organizations are demanding a new immigration system.  Proximity of midterm elections and 2016 Presidential elections. This issue is important to gain Latino vote.  The cost of inactivity could be political, economic and social.  Republicans need to gain the support of the Latino community. In the last two presidential elections they have only gain the 31% of the Latino vote in 2008 and the 29% in the 2012 election.
  4. 4. 3. Background
  5. 5. The Immigration Issue in figures Source: Pew Research Undocumented immigrants
  6. 6. The Immigration Issue in figures Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2012 (Table 39) 358 240 189 Annual Deportations
  7. 7. The Immigration Issue in figures Cost… …Or opportunity? Source: The Economist US$14,5 billion spent on immigration enforcement
  8. 8. Obama’s broken promises “I can guarantee that we will have in the first year an immigration bill (…)“, Obama 2008 “We consider him the deportation president, or the deporter-in-chief”, Janet Murguía (NCLR President) 2014.
  9. 9. Legislative paralysis - Legislative paralysis: - Democrat Senate and Republican Congress. - Proximity of Midterm Elections. - Current proposals: S. 744 and HR15. - Two issues at debate: - Security border. - Path to citizenship.
  10. 10. 4. Courses of Action
  11. 11. Courses of Action Keep current course of action Approve Senate’s Proposal Start a meaningful conversation (RECOMMENDED)
  12. 12. 1. Keep Current Course of Action - Erodes the Democrats. - Satisfies GOP’s right wing. PRO - Risk of losing Latino support in key States. - Risk of consolidating anti-immigrants perception. CONS
  13. 13. 1. Keep Current Course of Action Risk of being seen as anti-immigrant “We have to criticize – hardly – Boehner and the Republicans. We must make them feel uncomfortable because of their anti-Latino and anti-immigrant attitude. We love to say that Hispanos are not the asleep giant any more. Well, the time has come to show it.” Jorge Ramos Avalos. Source: Pew Research
  14. 14. 2. Accept Senate’s Proposal PRO CONS - Huge relief for Latinos. - Republicans not seen as just self- interested. - Could be seen as an Obama’s big victory. - Could erode GOP position in certain hard-conservative States.
  15. 15. 3. Start a meaningful conversation - Encourage an internal debate at the Republican Party to reach a common position. - High media profile. - Positive terms and moderation of the language. - No immigration reform before the midterm elections.
  16. 16. Mid-term and Presidential Elections
  17. 17. The growth of the Latino electorade "We need to campaign among Hispanic, black, Asian, and gay Americans and demonstrate we care about them, too. We must recruit more candidates who come from minority communities. But it is not just tone that counts. Policy always matters“, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus after 2012 elections.
  18. 18. Steps 2nd alternative: Immigration Conference1st alternative: Internal debate Reaching a common position ActionMidterm electionsMidterm elections
  19. 19. Start a meaningful conversation PRO CONS -Improvement of general and Latino perception. -Gaining support for the Presidential elections, while avoiding the issue before the midterm elections. - Possible intern criticism. - Latinos might not trust the GOP until they draft a bill.