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Ride-sourcing (TNC service) and transit in Shanghai

Using an analytical and confirmatory approach to explore the competitive relations between ride-sourcing and transit in Shanghai

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Ride-sourcing (TNC service) and transit in Shanghai

  1. 1. Friend or Foe? App-based, on-demand ride services (ride-sourcing) and transit in Shanghai UC Berkeley Ruoying Xu PhD student at the Department of City and Regional planning Yiyan Ge Concurrent Masters student at DCRP and Transportation Engineering
  2. 2. Friend or Foe? App-based, on-demand ride services (ride-sourcing) and transit in Shanghai Transportation Planning & Urban Data Science UC Berkeley Ruoying Xu PhD student at the Department of City and Regional planning Yiyan Ge Concurrent Masters student at DCRP and Transportation Engineering
  3. 3. What question are we trying to answer and why? How do we approach the question? How do we implement the approach? What can we do with the findings? OUTLINE
  4. 4. Is ride-sourcing (TNC service) competing with transit in cities?
  5. 5. Why do we care? Because how we travel shapes our experiences living in the cities.
  6. 6. We make choices •  Demand •  Travel mode •  Travel time •  Location preferences Choices have consequences •  Traffic •  GHG emission •  Land use patterns TNC Equity and Access
  7. 7. Is ride-sourcing (TNC) competing with transit in cities? Traditional approach: Whether people actually switched from a transit mode that they were previously using to the new mode TNC for the same trip purpose?
  8. 8. Technology-enabled, data-rich, fast-paced changes Quick understanding of changes & responsive and responsible policies
  9. 9. Quick understanding of changes & responsive and responsible policies Technology-enabled, data-rich, fast-paced changes Analytical + Confirmatory approach
  10. 10. Broad patterns and correlations Theories & known underlying mechanisms Analytical + Confirmatory approach
  11. 11. DATA Trip data from Jan. to Oct., 2015, provided by Didi Kuaidi Trip origin and destination Trip date and time 140,854 samples in total
  12. 12. January as the base year: 6098 trips Total sample size: 140,854 trips Total TNC trip changes over 10 months
  13. 13. Assumption 1 When TNC trip price decreases, people take more TNC trips, including trips with transit alternatives.
  14. 14. TNC TRANSIT INDUCED DEMAND If there is a reasonable transit alternative available for the TNC trip OD [Competition?] No reasonable transit alternative available Assumption 2 •  Low car ownership (~15%) •  High transit usage (50% of trips) •  Limited taxi supply (20 per 10000 ppl)
  15. 15. Assumption 2 Origin + destination + day of week + time of day + transit mode à Google Map Direction API à transit alternative Reasonable transit alternative: •  Waiting time < 20 min •  Walking time < 30 min •  Number of transfer at most 1 •  Transit travel time / TNC travel time ratio <= 2
  16. 16. Is ride-sourcing (TNC) competing with transit in cities? Individual level: Assumptions on travel behaviors
  17. 17. Is ride-sourcing (TNC) competing with transit in cities? Individual level: Assumptions on travel behaviors Hypothesis: e.g. people are more likely to use TNC service for short-distant trips
  18. 18. Is ride-sourcing (TNC) competing with transit in cities? Individual level: Assumptions on travel behaviors Hypothesis: e.g. people are more likely to use TNC service for short-distant trips EXPECTED differences and changes in % of TNC trips that can be reasonably replaced by transit
  19. 19. Is ride-sourcing (TNC) competing with transit in cities? Individual level: Assumptions on travel behaviors Hypothesis: e.g. people are more likely to use TNC service for short-distant trips EXPECTED differences and changes in % of TNC trips that can be reasonably replaced by transit OBSERVED differences and changes in % of TNC trips that can be reasonably replaced by transit
  20. 20. Key Questions In what circumstance, ride-sourcing service is more competitive with transit? When: 1.  the trip distance is short? 2.  the transit alternative is bus-only? 3.  the trip takes place during peak-hour?
  21. 21. 1. whether ride-sourcing is more competitive with transit for shorter trips or longer trips.
  22. 22. Short TNC trip vs. Long TNC trip over 10 months
  23. 23. Short TNC trips WITH and WITHOUT reasonable transit alternative
  24. 24. Long TNC trips WITH and WITHOUT reasonable transit alternative
  25. 25. % of long or short TNC trips that can be replaced by reasonable transit alternatives
  26. 26. 2. whether ride-sourcing is more competitive with bus or metro.
  27. 27. % of TNC trips with metro-only or bus-only alternatives that can be reasonably replaced by metro or bus
  28. 28. Takeaway Ride-sourcing is more likely to be competing with transit: 1.  when it is a long trip 2.  when the transit alternative is metro Prices affect different types of trips differently There is strong indication of induced demand
  29. 29. Transportation Planning Transportation planning policies that are grounded in neither theories nor evidence Lagging transportation planning policies that respond to the past
  30. 30. Transportation planning policies that are grounded in neither theories nor evidence Lagging transportation planning policies that respond to the past No RIGHT process Correlation is fine too Collaborations between data owners and planning agencies Responsible and responsive transportation planning policies Transportation Planning Urban Data Science
  31. 31. Thank you. Contacts: Ruoying Xu: xuruoying@berkeley.edu Yiyan Ge: geyiyan@berkeley.edu

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