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Toxic Air: The Challenge of Ozone Pollution

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In this Greening Governance seminar, leading air pollution experts highlight the challenges of reducing ozone pollution.

Join the conversation: #GreeningGovernance, #airpollution, #ozone, #ozonepollution

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Toxic Air: The Challenge of Ozone Pollution

  1. 1. GREENING GOVERNANCE SEMINAR TOXIC AIR: THE CHALLENGE OF OZONE POLLUTION Photo Source: MAVERICK PHOTO AGENCY/Flickr
  2. 2. IOM 2015 SPEAKER BIOS Jessica Seddon Director Of Integrated Urban Strategy, WRI Ross Center For Sustainable Cities Jessica Seddon is the Director of Integrated Urban Strategy at WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities. She leads a network of researchers and practitioners across WRI’s offices that works with city stakeholders to change both places and planning to create livable and resilient cities. Her own work focuses on the way that new sources of information and environmental awareness can be leveraged to motivate and guide investments and action that improves air quality, resource efficiency, and access to shared, green spaces. Outside of WRI, Jessica serves on the advisory board of the Wilderhill Global Clean Energy Index (NEX) and the Academic Council of Krea University, a new liberal arts initiative in South India. She is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Susan Anenberg Associate Professor, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University Susan Anenberg is an Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. Dr. Anenberg studies the health implications of air pollution and climate change, from local to global scales. Dr. Anenberg has been a Co-Founder and Partner at Environmental Health Analytics, LLC, the Deputy Managing Director for Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board, an environmental scientist at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and a senior advisor for clean cookstove initiatives at the U.S. State Department. Her research has been published in top academic journals such as Science, Nature, and Lancet Planetary Health. She has also led or contributed to many science-policy reports on air quality and climate change published by U.S. EPA, World Bank, World Health Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, and others. Beatriz Cárdenas Director Air Quality Program, WRI Mexico Beatriz is Air Quality Manager at WRI Mexico. She is an expert in air pollution, with experience in both science and policy, from the study of biological processes to treat air pollutants, to the design and implementation of integrated policies to achieve clean air. She joined WRI to lead air quality work at WRI Mexico and works on developing strategies and programs to accelerate the path to a cleaner air. Terry Keating Senior Scientist, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency Dr. Terry Keating is a senior scientist with EPA’s Office of Research and Development where his current responsibilities include management of several extramural research programs and coordination of international activities. Before joining ORD in 2016, Dr. Keating spent 17 years in EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation, where he advised senior management on scientific issues related to the development and implementation of air quality policies at the national and international level and the linkages between air quality and climate change. Since 2005, he has co-chaired the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution. Terry has a PhD and MSPH from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
  3. 3. Susan Anenberg, PhD WRI Greening Governance Seminar October 30, 2019
  4. 4. Global ozone concentrations and associated mortality 470,000 premature deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to ambient ozone pollution worldwide… …and this is an underestimate! Chang et al. Geosci Mod Dev, 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, 2017 5
  5. 5. Ozone precursors react and affect air quality and radiative forcing differently Reducing METHANE Double climate dividend (cooling), plus global air quality and health benefits Reducing CO and NMVOCs Smaller climate benefits (cooling), local air quality and health benefits Reducing NOx Larger local health benefits from reduced ozone, NO2, AND PM2.5, but potentially climate dis- benefits (warming) WARMINGCOOLING IPCC AR5, 2013 3
  6. 6. Methane emission sources and global ozone impacts Saunois et al. 2016 and International Energy Agency https://www.iea.org/weo/methane/ Ozone reductions from methane mitigation actions in UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment, 2011 4
  7. 7. NOx emission sources – air quality impacts more localized 250m x 250m population (GHS-POP) 2010-2012 ground-level NO2 at 100m x 100m (Larkin et al., 2017) (ppb) Co-located population and NO2 in Bangkok, Thailand Huang et al., ES&T 2017 Courtesy Ploy Achakulwisut Power plant Vehicle Industry 5
  8. 8. NO2 responsible for a large percentage of pediatric asthma In 125 major cities, the percentages of new pediatric asthma cases attributable to NO2: • Ranged up to 48% (Shanghai, China). • Exceeded 20% in 92 cities, located in both developed and developing countries. 1 2 3 4 Seoul Tokyo Paris LosAngeles NYC Santiago Chicago London Osaka Milan Cologne SanFrancisco Madrid Nagoya BuenosAires Philadelphia Dallas SanDiego Singapore Houston Toronto Manchester DC Barcelona Miami Naples Sydney MexicoCity Lima SaoPaulo Monterrey Bogota Guadalajara BeloHorizonte RiodeJaneiro Caracas SantoDomingo AddisAbaba Kano Kinshasa Johannesburg Luanda Lagos Nairobi Abidjan Accra DaresSalaam Orlu Tehran Dubai Istanbul Riyadh Ankara Jeddah Amman Baghdad Alexandria Kabul Cairo Casablanca Khartoum Algiers Asyut Sohag 0 10 20 30 40 50 5 6 7 Karachi NewDelhi Ahmedabad Bangalore Mumbai Hyderabad Faisalabad Lahore Dhaka Pune Rawalpindi Surat Chennai Jaipur Kolkata Lucknow Kathmandu Kanpur Varanasi Chittagong Peshawar Shanghai Tianjin Beijing Shenyang Xi'an Taiyuan Zhengzhou Harbin Wuhan Wuxi Nanjing HongKong Hangzhou Guangzhou Chongqing Qingdao Hefei Xiamen Chengdu Fuzhou Taipei HCMC KualaLumpur Manila Wenzhou Bangkok Hanoi Quanzhou Bandung Jakarta Shantou Rangoon Surabaya Medan Colombo Surakarta Semarang Moscow StPetersburg Tashkent 0 10 20 30 40 50 High-income Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa & Middle East South Asia East-Southeast Asia & Oceania Central Europe & Asia (%) (%) Achakulwisut et al., Lancet Planetary Health, 2019 9
  9. 9. 7 Key challenge: excess diesel NOx emissions Passenger cars Heavy duty trucks Anenberg et al., Nature, 2017 Portion of diesel vehicle NOx emissions that are in excess of certification standards: • >50% of light-duty diesel vehicles • nearly 1/3 of heavy-duty diesel vehicles Translates to 38,000 PM2.5 and ozone-related premature deaths from excess diesel NOx emissions… … including 10% of all ozone-related mortality in Europe
  10. 10. Mass balance of organic compounds through the U.S. petrochemical industry in 2012, from crude oil and natural gas production to resulting VOC emissions. McDonald et al. Science 2018 Key challenge: urban VOC emissions 11 Volatile chemical products now contribute 50% of emitted VOCs in 33 industrialized cities in the U.S. Includes chemicals in pesticides, coatings, printing inks, adhesives, cleaning agents, and personal care products
  11. 11. 12 Key challenge: climate change USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment 2016 It’s not just ozone precursors that are important for ozone mitigation… … to mitigate future ozone, we need to control greenhouse gases
  12. 12. Key points • Ozone continues to contribute substantially to the global burden of disease • Multiple approaches to mitigating ozone pollution, with multiple advantages • Methane controls to achieve climate and air quality co-benefits globally • NOx emission controls to reduce local NO2, ozone, and PM2.5 • Challenges to managing ozone pollution • Excess diesel NOx emissions • VOC emissions from volatile chemical products • Climate change 10
  13. 13. To achieve climate, air quality, and health co-benefits, move beyond end-of-pipe controls Scrubbers Active transportation Zero emission energy Energy efficiency Catalytic converters Diesel particulate filters 11
  14. 14. Controlling emissions to reduce ozone, PM2.5, warming IPCC AR5, 2013
  15. 15. Health effects of ozone 17 Turner et al. 2016
  16. 16. Effects of controlling emissions of ozone precursors: NOx, VOCs, and CH4 Courtesy Jason West, UNC 18 Emission sources
  17. 17. Mitigating short-lived climate pollutants 19 CH4 and BC mitigation LLGHG, CH4 and BC mitigation Reference LLGHG mitigation CH4 and BC mitigation LLGHG, CH4 and BC mitigation Reference LLGHG mitigation Temperature(°C)relativeto1890-1910 1900 1950 2000 2050 UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of BC and Ozone, 2011; Shindell et al. Science, 2012
  18. 18. 20 Benefits of 14 global actions mitigating methane and black carbon UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment, 2011 Much larger health benefits from black carbon measures • Methane measures reduce ozone globally • BC measures reduce PM2.5 and ozone (through reducing NOx, VOCs, CO) locally
  19. 19. OZONE OVER THE YEARS
  20. 20. SEDEMA, 2019. MEXICO CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AIR QUALITY TRENDS%difference Year MEXICO CITY AQ´STRENDS OVER TIME
  21. 21. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/descargas/estadisticas/indicadores/mosaicos/mosaico_ozono.pdf OZONE HIGHEST HOURLY CONCENTRATIONS 1990-2019
  22. 22. Sedema.2018. Informe Anual de Calidad del aire 2017. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/descargas/publicaciones/flippingbook/informe_anual_calidad_aire_2017/mobile/#p=158 MAXIMUM HOURLY OZONE CONCENTRATIONS 1986-2017 1986 2017
  23. 23. Comparative of contingency days over time (to current levels) Contingencies days Phase I (equivalent to current levels) Contingencies days Phase II (equivalent to current levels) Numberofdays Year SEDEMA, 2018
  24. 24. Historical Analysis of Population Health Benefits Associated with Air Quality in Mexico City during 1990 – 2014 http://www.data.sedema.cdmx.gob.mx/beneficios-en-salud-por-la-mejora-de-la-calidad-del-aire/descargas/analisis- ingles.pdf HEALTH ASSESSMENT: EVIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS
  25. 25. HEALTH ASSESSMENT: EVIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS • Dockery et al. 2018 Air Pollutant Exposure Attributable Deaths Avoided (thousands) CI 95% Ozone 4.1 (2.7 – 5.6) PM2.5 18.2 (14.0 – 23.5) PM2.5 & Ozone 22.5 (17.9 - 28.0) http://www.data.sedema.cdmx.gob.mx/beneficios-en-salud-por-la-
  26. 26. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/conoce-tu-numero-iner/descargas/final_report__indicator_ingles.pdf http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/conoce-tu-numero-iner/ COMUNICATE BETTER TO PROTECT HEALTH AIR QUALITY RISK INDEX (OZONE+NOX+PM2.5)
  27. 27. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/default.php?opc=%27aqBhnmOkZA==%27 NUMBER OF HOURS EXCEEDING HOURLY OZONE STANDARD • Ozone hourly standard until 2014 was 110 ppb • Since October 2014 hourly ozone standard is 95 ppb • Currently standards for ozone and PM are being reviewed
  28. 28. TRANSPORT OF POLLUTANTS IN THE REGION SEDEMA.2018 SEDEMA air quality model 24 h Forecast 26 october 2018
  29. 29. SEDEMA. 2018. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/default.php?opc=%27ZKBhnmU=%27 Mexico City Mexico City Metropolitan Area Area sources 113, 668 ton/year Area sources 267,996 ton/year Industrial sources 26,130 ton/year Industrial sources 13,288 ton/year VOC (PRECURSORS FOR OZONE) MEXICO CITY VS MCMA EMISSIONS 2016
  30. 30. SEDEMA. 2018. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/default.php?opc=%27ZKBhnmU=%27 NOX (PRECURSORS FOR OZONE) MEXICO CITY VS MCMA EMISSIONS 2016 Mexico City Mexico City Metropolitan Area Mobile sources 52, 438 ton/year Mobile sources 115,275 ton/year
  31. 31. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES Sedema.2018 1995-2001990-1995 2002-2010 2011-2020 2002-2010 Proaire in progress • Many air quality programs with many actions but….. – No specific goal in terms of concentrations reductions – Focused on emissions reductions but no consequences if goals are not met – No impacts for those who did not comply in implementing actions – Reduction of NOx from vehicular sources and fixed sources but not in the whole metropolitan area nor in the Megalopolis area – VOCs reductions from area and industrial sources are still pending
  32. 32. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES • Public transportation improved: 7 BRT lines, 12 metro lines, shared bikes, bike lines… but – Euro VI is not close • Reduction of emissions from vehicular emissions through many programs such as vehicular inspection + circulation restriction, fleet has renowed but……. – Relaxed standards for new vehicles – Still many heavy duty diesel high polluters – Ultra low sulfur is not distributed in all country – Fleet still increasing – Armonization among the region is still pending
  33. 33. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES • Coordination among the three levels of government during the first years but….. – Homologation among the megalopolis to control local sources still pending – Lack of / no update on federal standards for industrial emissions (NOx and VOCs) – Relaxed vehicular emissions standards for new cars (NOX, VOCs)
  34. 34. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES • Less high polluters industries and more local regulation for Mexico City but…. – Federal standards for most of the fixed sources emissions are still missing – The existing ones are so relaxed and, – … some of them moved somewhere else
  35. 35. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES • Reductions of regional pollution due to çlosure of refinery in Mexico City back in the 90´s and use of natural gas at the power plant in Tula but…… – Refinery and energy production in Tula area: • Changes from natural gas to heavy oil will impact NOx and VOCs emissions
  36. 36. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES • Reduction in exposure to most of the pollutants (ozone, PM2.5 ) but….. – still non attainment to standards for ozone and PM2.5 – Need to improve communication to protect health in the whole region WHO, data base 2016. 85 122 11 10 36 18 9 29 31 20 33 0 50 100 150 Beijing Delhi Los Angeles Madrid Monterrey Paris San Francisco Santiago Temuco ZMVM ZMVT µg/m3 Annual average PM2.5
  37. 37. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES • Preliminar integration of climate change and air quality policy but…. – low emissions policies are not still totally integrated (transport policy) – NOx reductions are not considered for CC policy (ozone impact) – CH4 the only HC considered, what about others VOCs, including those with high toxicity?
  38. 38. • Civil society has been a key part of the air quality improvement and is still active • Still better communication to target those actions that could be more effective SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
  39. 39. PICTURE: CARDENAS. EJE CENTRAL. THANK YOU Beatriz.cardenas@wri.org
  40. 40. www.wriciudades.org twitter: @wri_ciudades facebook: /wriciudades youtube: wri ciudades blog: thecityfixmexico.org
  41. 41. • Latitude 19º N • 2220 m asl • Sorrounded by mountains • Secundary pollutants production
  42. 42. CASO OZONOEach cell corresponds to the maximum houly concentration registered at one monitoring station between 1990 y 2019 To be able to compared, the color of the cell corresponds to the AQI scale as 2019 good 0 - 70 regular 71 - 95 bad 96 - 154 very bad 155 - 204 Extremenly bad > =205 LEYENDA
  43. 43. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/descargas/estadisticas/indicadores/mosaicos/mosaico_ozono.pdf PM2.5 HIGHEST DAYLY CONCENTRATION S 2004-2019
  44. 44. HOW? EMISSIONS INVENTORIES OVER TIME • Updates every two years • Emission factors and activity data for some of the sources • Coverage all metropolitan area
  45. 45. Velasco & Retama. 2017. Ozone´s threat hits back Mexico City. Sustainable Cities and Society. 31:260-263
  46. 46. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/default.php?opc=%27aqBhnmOkYQ==%27
  47. 47. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/default.php?opc=%27aqBhnmOkZA==%27 OZONE TRND
  48. 48. SEDEMA, 2018 AIR QUALITY MODELLING Global model INOAA meteorological model Emissions model Hermes- México Hourly model . Model Hermes-México developed by BSC as part of a collaboration Chemical model C-MAQ 5.2* Chemical transformations Run at SEDEMA cluster Model WRF 3.9 parametrized SEDEMA-BSC using knowledge from MCMA 2003 y MILAGRO 2006
  49. 49. Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93” W and can be masked by a collage strip of one, two or three images. The photo image area is located 3.19” from left and 3.81” from top of page. Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a maximum of 2” high, stroked with a 1.5 pt white frame and positioned edge-to-edge with accompanying images. Ozone Governance: A Multi-Scale Challenge Terry J Keating, PhD Partnerships Branch Office of Science Advisor, Policy, and Engagement Co-Chair, Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) Office of Research and Development October 30, 2019 The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy positions of the EPA.
  50. 50. Ozone is a Function of Sources Near and Far, Anthropogenic and Natural GEOS-Chem Source Apportionment for Ozone MDA8 (ppb): Average of all days vs. Average of highest 10 days By U.S. Region 2004-2012 June – August based on zero-out simulations for each component US Anthropogenic Canada and Mexico Intercontinental and CH4 Other US Background Lightning NOx Soil NOx Biogenic VOC The reaction of BVOC with ANOx is included in both BVOC and USA. Based on results presented in: Guo, Fiore, et al. (2018) ACP 18:12123-12140 doi:10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: A Special Issue Global and regional assessment of intercontinental transport of air pollution: results from HTAP, AQMEII, and MICS
  51. 51. Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Ozone source attribution 58 Ozone is a Function of NOX and Hydrocarbons (VOC and CH4) Ozone Precursor Tagging: Lupascu and Butler, doi:10.5194/acp-2019-225 Seasonal cycle of surface ozone: Europe
  52. 52. 59 https://collections.elementascience.org/toar/ 2010-2014 average of the annual 4th Highest Maximum Daily 8-Hour Average Probability of Increasing or Decreasing Trends Across Regions 2000-2014 • Accessible data is limited. • Decreasing peak concentrations in North America and Europe. • Increasing peak concentrations in East Asia.
  53. 53. 60 Non-Peak Trends Suggest Increasing Background Ozone Average Daytime Surface Concentrations Non-Urban, Spring, 2004-2014 Northern Hemisphere Mountaintop Nightime Concentrations by Season, 1970-2015 Satellite Observations of Tropospheric Column 1996-2016 Winter Spring Summer Fall
  54. 54. 61 An Evolving Spatial Scale for Science Followed by Policy 1940s 1950s Haagen-Smit et al. elucidate role of NOx and VOC and impacts on vegetation in Los Angeles LA Air Pollution Control District 1960s Oden describes Acid Rain State & Federal Legislation 1970s Crutzen describes the role of NOx and CH4 in forming O3 in the remote troposphere US Clean Air Act requires State Implementation Plans (SIPs). 1980s “A River of O3” in the US Northeast (Wolff and Lioy) LRTAP Convention 1990s “A Rising Tide of O3” in the US Southeast (Chameides and Cowling) Aircraft campaigns in Pacific and Atlantic Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) Ozone Transport Assessment Group NOx SIP Call UNFCCC EANET, Male Declaration 2000s Satellite observations, more aircraft campaigns, and global model intercomparisons, TFHTAP POPs Convention Global Air Pollution Forum Agreements in Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, Central Asia 2010s Short Lived Climate Pollutants, TOAR Hg Convention Climate and Clean Air Coalition
  55. 55. 62 Groupings of Regional Forums 1979 LRTAP Convention 1998 EANET 1998 Male Declaration 2002 ASEAN 2006 Framework for Central Asia 2015 Asia and the Pacific Clean Air Partnership 2008 Eastern Africa Framework 2008 Southern African Development Network 2009 West and Central Africa Framework 1986 Arab League CAMRE 2008 Latin America and Caribbean Network
  56. 56. 63 The Current Global Framework for Air Quality Management is a Patchwork North America Europe Russia and Central Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Middle East / Northern Africa Sub- Saharan Africa South and Central America Austrailia, NZ and Pacific Ambient Monitoring Emissions Inventory Development Air Quality Modeling Impact Assessment Control Strategy Evaluation Common Policy Development World Regions TechnicalAreasofAirQualityManagement IPCC UNEP UNFCCC IGAC WMO/GAW Arctic Council LRTAP APCAP WMO/GURME UNFCCC EANET CCAC GEIA Malé Decl. ASEAN LAC Blue = Air Quality Focus, Red = Climate Focus Dark = Intergovernmental, Light = Nongovernmental Updated from Seddon and Keating, 2012
  57. 57. Limits to Growth • Technical and Institutional Capacity –At the national and international level • Political Commitment or Legal Obligations –Are obligations necessary? Is capacity and self-interest enough? • Competing Forums or Jurisdictions –Does action in one arena decrease the motivation for action in another? • Negotiation Fatigue, Desire for Action –What is the most efficient path to sustained emission reductions? • Lack of Urgency or Clarity of Common Interest –Is additional coordinated international action warranted? • Lack of Resources or Champions –How to sustain support for building capacity and motivation? 64
  58. 58. 65 How to Strengthen the System From Seddon and Keating, 2012 • Equalize capacity for action, through technology transfer, expertise-creation • Standardize information and improve the ability to share information • Engage civil society and business networks to strengthen local incentives for emissions reduction. • Create new links to related areas of development or economic policy, or to activities focused on non- regulatory approaches and non-governmental actors • Create opportunities for communication and information sharing  Global Air Pollution Information Sharing Platform, hosted by the LRTAP Convention, launching in December

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