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3+ Years of Pandemic
Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo
• 650+ million confirmed cases
• 13 billion vaccine doses administered
Runaway Inflation
Photo: Anna Kaminova/Unsplash
9% global inflation in 2022
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Shocked the World
Photo: Ukrinform/Alamy Stock Photo
• 17,000+ civilian casualties
• 12+ million displaced
Triggered a Global Energy Crisis
Photo: frans lemmens/Alamy Stock Photo
70 million people globally
at risk of losing electricity
And Accelerated a Food Crisis
Photo: Larina Elena/Alamy Stock Photo
Global food prices surged
14.3% in 2022
22 million people at risk of
starvation in the Horn of
Africa
Climate Change Was a Threat Multiplier
Photo: Muhammed Furqan/Alamy Stock Photo
Floods decreased Pakistan’s projected
GDP growth from 5% to 2%
Setback for Poverty Reduction
Photo: matthieu cattin/Alamy Stock Photo
Up to 95 million people pushed
into poverty in 2022
2022 was a difficult year,
but it wasn’t all bad
Record-breaking investment in renewable energy
8% increase in global renewable energy
capacity in 2022
Photo: Shutterstock
Increasing Recognition of the Value of Nature
Photo: Xinhua/Alamy Stock Photo
Countries committed to conserve
30% of the world’s land, water
and ocean by 2030.
Breakthrough in Solidarity among Countries
Photo: UNFCCC
Momentum for Just Transition
Photo: Andia/Alamy Stock Photo
$20 billion package for
just energy transition in
Indonesia
The U.S. passed 3 major laws
to green its economy with equity
at the center
Will these breakthroughs lead to the
systemic shifts the world needs?
Russia Invades Ukraine: Energy Weaponized
Source: Eurostat
~40% of Europe’s
natural gas supply
was from Russia
Energy Crisis Impacts on
People and Industry
• Annual energy prices in Europe
spiked to 41.5% in October 2022
• Energy prices raised cost of living by
7% in 2022 compared to 2021
Photo: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Stock Photo
Photo: dpa picture alliance/Alamy Stock Photo.
• EU Council agrees to reduce natural gas demand
• Europe secures more LNG
• Some countries expand coal and nuclear energy production
Short-term Response: Keeping the Lights On
Russian Pipeline Gas Replaced by Liquified Natural
Gas (LNG) Imports
Source: Refinitiv
•
The Danger of a Natural Gas Trap
Photo: ZUMA Press, Inc./Alamy Stock Photo
Risks:
• Future overcapacity
• Stranded infrastructure
• Fossil fuel path dependency
Risk of Missing 1.5° Warming Goal
Source: Climate Action Tracker
Energy at a Crossroads
“Government responses
around the world promise to
make this a historic and
definitive turning point
towards a cleaner, more
affordable and more secure
energy system.”
- Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive
Director of the IEA
Photo: Franz Perc/Alamy Stock Photo
The Question:
Will the crisis in Europe spur
a global shift to a low-carbon
energy future?
Solidarity in Europe?
“The best response and
support we as the
European Union can give
is European solidarity and
European unity.”
- Roberta Metsola,
President of the European Parliament
Will Europe meet its energy transition targets?
Source: European Commission
Will consumers
continue to change
behavior?
Heat pumps could
reduce global CO2
emissions by at least
500M tonnes in 2030
Photo: dpa picture alliance/Alamy Stock Photo
Will European voters
prioritize clean energy?
83% of people in the EU
think that Russia’s
invasion makes it more
urgent to invest in
renewable energy
Photo: Xinhua/Alamy Stock Photo
How will Europe’s energy choices impact the world?
Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo.
• China
• India
• Africa
Return of President Lula Sparks Hope
Photo: dpa picture alliance/Alamy Stock Photo
High Expectations for Brazil’s Forests
Source: Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. Note: 2022 data is through 11/30/22.
Lula Takes Action
on Day 1
• Appointed Marina Silva
& Sônia Guajajara as
ministers
• Reinstated an array of
anti-deforestation policies.
• Reopened the Amazon Fund.
• Revoked permission for
mining in protected areas.
• Revitalized civil society
participation.
Photo: Foto Arena LTDA/Alamy Stock Photo
Beyond Brazil
• Amazon Basin is
6.8 million km2 ≈
the size of continental US
• Includes 9 countries
Source: GFW
Beyond the Amazon: Big 3 Remaining Tropical Forests
Beyond the Amazon: Big 3 Remaining Tropical Forests
Source: GFW
Tropical tree cover lost in 2021
= 11 million hectares
Amazon Is Critical for
People, Nature and
Climate
Photo: Patricio Gaibor
• 47 million people
• 10% of biodiversity
• Up to 140 billion
metric tons of carbon
stored
… and the Economy
“Let’s prove once again that
it is possible to generate wealth
without provoking climate change.”
- President Lula
Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo
The Question
Will Lula’s return lead to a transformation in
managing and protecting tropical forests?
Will Lula succeed in
advancing a
pro-forest agenda?
3 keys to success:
• Overcome political opposition
• Enforcement of existing laws
• Return of Amazon Fund
Photo: UN Climate Change
Will global markets
incentivize stopping
deforestation?
• Regulation
• Private sector
• Carbon markets
• International finance
Photo: BrazilPhotos/Alamy Stock Photo
Will global action
on tropical forests
take hold?
• New global pact
• Indonesia
• Democratic Republic
of the Congo
• Summit in Gabon
Photo: David Clode/Unsplash
No Finance, No Transition
Source: State of Climate Action
Developing Regions Have the Greatest Need
Source: IPCC
Developing Regions Have the Greatest Need
Source: IPCC
Sources of Finance to Fund the Transition
• Domestic public
• Domestic private
• International public
• International private
Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo
Debt Constrains Public Investment
Source: IMF LIC DSA database
Concessional Finance Is Hard to Find
Source: UN, World Bank, International Debt Statistics
Private Finance Is Unevenly Distributed
Source: CPI
Borrowing Costs Are
Higher in Developing
Countries
Economy-wide cost of
capital for debt in 2020:
• US: 2%
• Nigeria: 14%
• Pakistan: 15%
Photo: Geoff Marshall/Alamy Stock Photo
2022: A Rallying Cry Emerges
“We must act now. We
cannot be good at rescuing
banks but bad at saving
people.”
- Bridgetown Initiative, spearheaded by
Barbados PM Mia Mottley
Photo: TIME Magazine
The Question
Will financial reforms take hold and
spur investment to support developing
country transitions?
Will development banks adopt transformative reforms?
Photo: Xinhua/Alamy Stock Photo
April 2023:
World Bank/IMF
Spring Meetings
Will the Climate
Mitigation Trust get
off the ground?
June 2023:
Summit co-hosted by
PM Mottley & President
Macron
Photo: Erik Pendzich/Alamy Stock Photo
G7:
May: Hosted by Japan
G20:
July: Finance Ministerial
October: Heads of State
summit, hosted by India
Photo: G20.org
Will major emitters
back reforms?
Will more private
capital flow for
energy transitions?
June 2023:
Indonesia JET-P Investment and
Policy Plan
December 2023:
Vietnam JET-P Resource
Mobilization Plan
Photo: Yermia Riezky Santiago/Alamy Stock Photo
Will COP28 move the
needle on key finance
issues?
COP28, December, in Dubai:
• $100 billion and progress
on a new goal
• Loss & Damage Fund
• MDB reform
• De-risk private finance
Photo: Nick Fewings
2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws
Biggest climate investment
in US history
Photo: White House Photo/Alamy Stock Photo
2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws
Source: RMI
2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws
Source: RMI
2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws
Source: RMI
A Boost, but More to Go
Source: Princeton REPEAT
A Major Job Creation Opportunity
IRA and BIL can create 900,000
to 3.1 million potential
additional net jobs by 2035
Source: Andia/Alamy Stock Photo
A Strong Focus on Justice
Photo: NurPhoto SRL/Alamy Stock Photo
40% of climate investment
benefits to historically
underserved communities
The Question
Will the US jumpstart a just transition to meet
its climate goals and bring economic benefits
to all people?
Will the US government
accelerate renewable energy
deployment?
Photo: Andy Feliciotti/Unsplash
• Permitting reform in
Congress
• Regulatory
changes at US
agencies
Will key states drive
progress?
• California
• Georgia
• Michigan
Photo: REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
Will businesses and
consumers take
advantage of clean
energy incentives?
Consumer tax credits for:
EVs, heat pumps,
solar panels, energy
efficiency
Business incentives:
Zero-emissions power,
hydrogen, carbon removal
Photo: Wirestock
Will government agencies
follow through on equity
commitments?
Photo: iStock
• Justice40 Scorecard
• EPA Clean School Bus
Program
Will more states develop
just transition programs to
support workers?
Colorado's Just
Transition Action Plan
Photo: Shutterstock
Will the US and its allies
overcome trade tensions?
• Buy America Rule
• International
frustration over
"protectionist" shift
• Europe’s Carbon
Border Adjustment
Mechanism (CBAM)
Stories to Watch 2023
Stories to Watch 2023

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Stories to Watch 2023

  • 1.
  • 2. 3+ Years of Pandemic Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo • 650+ million confirmed cases • 13 billion vaccine doses administered
  • 3. Runaway Inflation Photo: Anna Kaminova/Unsplash 9% global inflation in 2022
  • 4. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Shocked the World Photo: Ukrinform/Alamy Stock Photo • 17,000+ civilian casualties • 12+ million displaced
  • 5. Triggered a Global Energy Crisis Photo: frans lemmens/Alamy Stock Photo 70 million people globally at risk of losing electricity
  • 6. And Accelerated a Food Crisis Photo: Larina Elena/Alamy Stock Photo Global food prices surged 14.3% in 2022 22 million people at risk of starvation in the Horn of Africa
  • 7. Climate Change Was a Threat Multiplier Photo: Muhammed Furqan/Alamy Stock Photo Floods decreased Pakistan’s projected GDP growth from 5% to 2%
  • 8. Setback for Poverty Reduction Photo: matthieu cattin/Alamy Stock Photo Up to 95 million people pushed into poverty in 2022
  • 9. 2022 was a difficult year, but it wasn’t all bad
  • 10. Record-breaking investment in renewable energy 8% increase in global renewable energy capacity in 2022 Photo: Shutterstock
  • 11. Increasing Recognition of the Value of Nature Photo: Xinhua/Alamy Stock Photo Countries committed to conserve 30% of the world’s land, water and ocean by 2030.
  • 12. Breakthrough in Solidarity among Countries Photo: UNFCCC
  • 13. Momentum for Just Transition Photo: Andia/Alamy Stock Photo $20 billion package for just energy transition in Indonesia The U.S. passed 3 major laws to green its economy with equity at the center
  • 14. Will these breakthroughs lead to the systemic shifts the world needs?
  • 15.
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  • 17. Russia Invades Ukraine: Energy Weaponized Source: Eurostat ~40% of Europe’s natural gas supply was from Russia
  • 18. Energy Crisis Impacts on People and Industry • Annual energy prices in Europe spiked to 41.5% in October 2022 • Energy prices raised cost of living by 7% in 2022 compared to 2021 Photo: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 19. Photo: dpa picture alliance/Alamy Stock Photo. • EU Council agrees to reduce natural gas demand • Europe secures more LNG • Some countries expand coal and nuclear energy production Short-term Response: Keeping the Lights On
  • 20. Russian Pipeline Gas Replaced by Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Imports Source: Refinitiv •
  • 21. The Danger of a Natural Gas Trap Photo: ZUMA Press, Inc./Alamy Stock Photo Risks: • Future overcapacity • Stranded infrastructure • Fossil fuel path dependency
  • 22. Risk of Missing 1.5° Warming Goal Source: Climate Action Tracker
  • 23. Energy at a Crossroads “Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system.” - Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA Photo: Franz Perc/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 24. The Question: Will the crisis in Europe spur a global shift to a low-carbon energy future?
  • 25. Solidarity in Europe? “The best response and support we as the European Union can give is European solidarity and European unity.” - Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament
  • 26. Will Europe meet its energy transition targets? Source: European Commission
  • 27. Will consumers continue to change behavior? Heat pumps could reduce global CO2 emissions by at least 500M tonnes in 2030 Photo: dpa picture alliance/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 28. Will European voters prioritize clean energy? 83% of people in the EU think that Russia’s invasion makes it more urgent to invest in renewable energy Photo: Xinhua/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 29. How will Europe’s energy choices impact the world? Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo. • China • India • Africa
  • 30.
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  • 32. Return of President Lula Sparks Hope Photo: dpa picture alliance/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 33. High Expectations for Brazil’s Forests Source: Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. Note: 2022 data is through 11/30/22.
  • 34. Lula Takes Action on Day 1 • Appointed Marina Silva & Sônia Guajajara as ministers • Reinstated an array of anti-deforestation policies. • Reopened the Amazon Fund. • Revoked permission for mining in protected areas. • Revitalized civil society participation. Photo: Foto Arena LTDA/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 35. Beyond Brazil • Amazon Basin is 6.8 million km2 ≈ the size of continental US • Includes 9 countries Source: GFW
  • 36. Beyond the Amazon: Big 3 Remaining Tropical Forests
  • 37. Beyond the Amazon: Big 3 Remaining Tropical Forests Source: GFW Tropical tree cover lost in 2021 = 11 million hectares
  • 38. Amazon Is Critical for People, Nature and Climate Photo: Patricio Gaibor • 47 million people • 10% of biodiversity • Up to 140 billion metric tons of carbon stored
  • 39. … and the Economy “Let’s prove once again that it is possible to generate wealth without provoking climate change.” - President Lula Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 40. The Question Will Lula’s return lead to a transformation in managing and protecting tropical forests?
  • 41. Will Lula succeed in advancing a pro-forest agenda? 3 keys to success: • Overcome political opposition • Enforcement of existing laws • Return of Amazon Fund Photo: UN Climate Change
  • 42. Will global markets incentivize stopping deforestation? • Regulation • Private sector • Carbon markets • International finance Photo: BrazilPhotos/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 43. Will global action on tropical forests take hold? • New global pact • Indonesia • Democratic Republic of the Congo • Summit in Gabon Photo: David Clode/Unsplash
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. No Finance, No Transition Source: State of Climate Action
  • 47. Developing Regions Have the Greatest Need Source: IPCC
  • 48. Developing Regions Have the Greatest Need Source: IPCC
  • 49. Sources of Finance to Fund the Transition • Domestic public • Domestic private • International public • International private Photo: REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 50. Debt Constrains Public Investment Source: IMF LIC DSA database
  • 51. Concessional Finance Is Hard to Find Source: UN, World Bank, International Debt Statistics
  • 52. Private Finance Is Unevenly Distributed Source: CPI
  • 53. Borrowing Costs Are Higher in Developing Countries Economy-wide cost of capital for debt in 2020: • US: 2% • Nigeria: 14% • Pakistan: 15% Photo: Geoff Marshall/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 54. 2022: A Rallying Cry Emerges “We must act now. We cannot be good at rescuing banks but bad at saving people.” - Bridgetown Initiative, spearheaded by Barbados PM Mia Mottley Photo: TIME Magazine
  • 55. The Question Will financial reforms take hold and spur investment to support developing country transitions?
  • 56. Will development banks adopt transformative reforms? Photo: Xinhua/Alamy Stock Photo April 2023: World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings
  • 57. Will the Climate Mitigation Trust get off the ground? June 2023: Summit co-hosted by PM Mottley & President Macron Photo: Erik Pendzich/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 58. G7: May: Hosted by Japan G20: July: Finance Ministerial October: Heads of State summit, hosted by India Photo: G20.org Will major emitters back reforms?
  • 59. Will more private capital flow for energy transitions? June 2023: Indonesia JET-P Investment and Policy Plan December 2023: Vietnam JET-P Resource Mobilization Plan Photo: Yermia Riezky Santiago/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 60. Will COP28 move the needle on key finance issues? COP28, December, in Dubai: • $100 billion and progress on a new goal • Loss & Damage Fund • MDB reform • De-risk private finance Photo: Nick Fewings
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. 2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws Biggest climate investment in US history Photo: White House Photo/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 64. 2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws Source: RMI
  • 65. 2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws Source: RMI
  • 66. 2022: A Trio of New Climate Laws Source: RMI
  • 67. A Boost, but More to Go Source: Princeton REPEAT
  • 68. A Major Job Creation Opportunity IRA and BIL can create 900,000 to 3.1 million potential additional net jobs by 2035 Source: Andia/Alamy Stock Photo
  • 69. A Strong Focus on Justice Photo: NurPhoto SRL/Alamy Stock Photo 40% of climate investment benefits to historically underserved communities
  • 70. The Question Will the US jumpstart a just transition to meet its climate goals and bring economic benefits to all people?
  • 71. Will the US government accelerate renewable energy deployment? Photo: Andy Feliciotti/Unsplash • Permitting reform in Congress • Regulatory changes at US agencies
  • 72. Will key states drive progress? • California • Georgia • Michigan Photo: REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
  • 73. Will businesses and consumers take advantage of clean energy incentives? Consumer tax credits for: EVs, heat pumps, solar panels, energy efficiency Business incentives: Zero-emissions power, hydrogen, carbon removal Photo: Wirestock
  • 74. Will government agencies follow through on equity commitments? Photo: iStock • Justice40 Scorecard • EPA Clean School Bus Program
  • 75. Will more states develop just transition programs to support workers? Colorado's Just Transition Action Plan Photo: Shutterstock
  • 76. Will the US and its allies overcome trade tensions? • Buy America Rule • International frustration over "protectionist" shift • Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)