What stories will impact people and the planet in 2013? Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO, presents his views for where the world is headed in international development, climate change, energy, sustainable business, natural resources, and more. What will be the big news stories? Who will be the change makers? And, why does it all matter? Celebrating its 10th anniversary, STORIES TO WATCH 2013 takes place on 15 January 2013 and welcomes media representatives, policymakers, business leaders, and consultants who want to know what trends will shape the world in the coming year. Find out more at http://www.wri.org/event/2013/01/stories-watch-2013

1. FEATURING
Andrew Steer
President and CEO, WRI

2. (Photo: jdlasica/Flickr)

3. It’s been a great two decades . . .

4. 2 billion ↑58%
gained access to girls enrolled in primary
improved drinking water education in least developed
countries
↓47%
maternal deaths
↑100% ↓50%
real per capita income people living on less
in developing countries than $1.25 per day
(United Nations, World Bank, 2012)

5. . . . Or has it?

6. 3.3 million
deaths per year from
air pollution
13 million
hectares of forest lost per year
↑2.9x ↑50%
cement production CO2 emissions
(WHO, The Lancet, EU, US DOE, FAO)

7. GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS ON THE RISE
40
35 BILLION
35
TONS (2012)
Carbon dioxide emissions (billion tons)
Carbon dioxide emissions (billion tons)
30
25
20
15
6 BILLION
10
TONS (1950)
5
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
(US DOE, 2010; EU, 2012)

8. SHIFT TO AN URBANIZED WORLD
70% (2050)
50% (2000)
30% (1950)
14% (1900)
3% (1800)
(UN DESA, 2012)

9. EXPLOSION OF THE
GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
 1 billion in 1990
 2 billion in 2010
 5 billion by 2030
(Photo: ben124/Flickr)

10. ARE WE RUNNING OUT?
Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars)
250
Food
Energy
Timber
200
Fertilizers
Metals and Minerals
Price in real 2005 dollars
150
100
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012)

12. 1 ENERGY MIX
1 WHAT ENERGY MIX?
1.3 billion people without
access to electricity
(Photo: MC-Leprosy/Flickr)

13. COAL
55+
U.S. coal plants
shut down in 2012;
395 remain
(Photo: Martini DK/Flickr)

14. COAL | GLOBAL CONSUMPTION INCREASING
8
7
Million metric tons
Million metric tons
6
5
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
(EIA, 2012)

15. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
(WRI, 2012)

16. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
INDIA
(WRI, 2012)

17. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
CHINA
INDIA
(WRI, 2012)

18. COAL | U.S. COAL EXPORTS ARE RISING (2002 = 1.0)
3.5
3.0
2.5
Relative to 2002
2.0
1.5 EXPORTS
1.0
CONSUMPTION
0.5
0.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(EIA, 2012)

19. WHAT TO WATCH
1. How many of the
proposed coal power
plants will be built?
2. Will U.S. coal exports
continue to grow?
(Photo: LHOON/Flickr)

20. NATURAL GAS | U.S. PRODUCTION INCREASING
30
25
20 SHALE GAS
Trillion cubic feet
15
10
OTHER
5
NATURAL GAS
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA)

21. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

22. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
2010
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

23. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
2010
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
2011
6
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

24. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
2010
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
2011
6
2012
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

25. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES
N.B. Estimates for Russia and the Middle East are not included
(EIA, 2011)

26. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will U.S. shale gas boom
continue or will it level off?
2. What will happen with the
development of shale gas in
China? What about India, the
UK, South Africa, and other
countries?
(Photo: Giorgio Giorgetti/Flickr)

27. RENEWABLES | WHERE NEXT FOR INVESTMENT?
80
70
$268.7BN
60
(2012)
Billions of dollars
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004
2004 2005
2005 2006
2006 20072007 20082008 2009
2009 2010
2010 20112011 2012
2012
Quarterly
N.B. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D.
(Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013)

28. RENEWABLES | COUNTRIES WITH RENEWABLE
ENERGY TARGETS
With targets
Without targets Map is illustrative; see REN21 for full list of countries
(REN21, 2012)

29. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will countries make
progress on their
commitments?
Will new countries
announce new energy
targets this year?
2. How will this impact
investments?
(Photo: Russian Reporter)

30. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL
PROGRESS”
IN CHINA
2 TOWARD “ECOLOGICAL
PROGRESS” IN CHINA?
(Photo: Andreas/Flickr)

31. CHINA DRIVES GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
Share of the world total
53%
47% 48%
45%
28%
Iron Ore
Cement
Steel
10%
Coal
CO2
GDP

32. CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
IS MASSIVELY COSTLY
10
Cost of environmental degradation as
9.2% OF GDP
8
% of GDP equivalent
6
4
2
0
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

33. BEIJING AIR POLLUTION
755 air quality
index in Beijing

34. CHINA LEADS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY
Renewable energy installed capacity
140
120
100
Gigawatts
80
60
40
20
0
China
China United Germany Spain
U.S. Germany Spain ItalyItaly Japan
Japan India
India France
France Brazil
Brazil
States
(Pew, 2012)

35. CHINA’S GDP GROWTH: WHERE NEXT?
16
14
12
2013 2017
(8.8%) (8.5%)
GDP growth (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2005 2010 2015
(IMF, 2012)

36. 18TH NATIONAL CONGRESS
OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY
OF CHINA, NOVEMBER 2012
“We must fully implement the
overall plan for promoting
economic, political, cultural,
social and ecological progress.”
- PRESIDENT HU
(Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr)

37. WHAT TO WATCH
1. How much progress will
China make toward its
energy targets?
2. Will China make
progress on its
carbon trading pilots?
3. Will China develop its
massive shale gas
potential, which could in
part displace its
dependence on coal?
(Photo: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr)

38. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S
PROGRESS” LIONS
IN CHINA
3 HOW WILL AFRICA’S
LIONS GROW?
(Photo: Alvise Forcellini/Flickr)

39. BOOMING ECONOMIES
National GDP growth, 2007-2012
Ethiopia
Sierra Leone 8.9%
10.2%
Ghana Rwanda
8.2% 7.5%
Equatorial
Guinea
8.0%
7.5%+
5-7.4%
2.5-4.9%
0-2.4%
Insufficient data Angola
9.2%
(IMF, 2012)

40. AFRICAN CITIES GROWING QUICKLY
36% 67% 65%
urban urban currently live in slums
population population
in 2010 in 2050
AFRICAN MIDDLE CLASS GROWING
37% 48%
increase in middle currently live in
class from 2000-10 absolute poverty
(African Development Bank, Deloitte)

41. A MIXED BAG
Change in Freedom House rankings, 2002-2012
Improved
No change
Worsened
Insufficient data
(Freedom House, 2012)

42. 50%
foreign direct
investment going to
extractive industries
$16bn
2011 Chinese
investments
in Africa
(Photo: ENOUGH Project/Flickr)

43. 400m people living
in the dry lands
(Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)

44. THE GREAT GREEN WALL
(NASA; Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall)

45. DODD-FRANK LEGISLATION PASSED IN 2010
SEC Rules
(Photo: Securities and Exchange Commission/Flickr)

46. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will we see more
transparency from
extractive industries?
2. How will Africa respond
to drought and food
security issues? Will we
see an expansion of
efforts at regreening?
(Photo: TREEAID/Flickr)

47. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S 4 THE WORLD’S
PROGRESS” LIONS FORESTS
IN CHINA
4 ARE WE TURNING
THE CORNER
ON FORESTS?
Forests provide
$720 billion to
global economies
(Photo: CIFOR/Flickr)

48. 13m hectares of forest
lost per year

49. BRAZIL AND INDONESIA: VITAL PLAYERS
Brazil Indonesia
35% 23%
SHARE OF
TROPICAL
DEFORESTATION,
1990-2010
2.8 2.6
Other 12
42% .5
(FAO)

50. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will President
Yudhoyono extend
the moratorium?
(Photo: CIFOR/Flickr)

51. DEFORESTATION IN BRAZIL IS ON THE DECLINE
30
25
Thousands of square kilometers
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(National Institute for Space Research, Brazil, 2012)

52. WHAT TO WATCH
1. How will Brazil’s new
legislation, signed by
President Rousseff
impact the dynamics?
(Photo: Neil Palmer/CIAT)

55. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S 4 THE WORLD’S 5 GREEN
PROGRESS” LIONS FORESTS INVESTMENT
IN CHINA
5 WILL GREEN
INVESTMENT
SURVIVE THE
SQUEEZE?
(Photo: Francisco Diez/Flickr)

56. UNCERTAIN TIMES – RISK AVERSION
Change in global GDP
5
4
3
Real global GDP growth (%)
Real global GDP growth (%)
2
1
0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-1
-2
-3
(World Bank, 2012)

57. GLOBAL ANNUAL CLIMATE FINANCE
$1 trillion
$364 billion
2010-11 WHAT IS
NEEDED
(CPI, 2012; Bloomberg, 2012)

58. FINANCIAL RULES | UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Basel III
Full compliance by 2019
(Photo: BIS)

59. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE | DE-RISKING MECHANISMS
Green Climate Fund
What role will it play?
(Photo: theverb.org/Flickr)

60. MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS |
SEEDING NEW DEVELOPMENT
sustainable
$175bn transport
commitment
(Photo: Michael Oko)

61. CHANGING MINDSETS
(UPS, Unilever, Johnson & Johnson)

62. NEW FINANCING STRUCTURES, NEW PLAYERS
(Photo: David Blaikie/Flickr)

63. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will new funding
mechanisms emerge to
de-risk the markets?
2. Will companies
recalibrate risk and
adopt longer-term
perspectives?
3. Will new financing
structures and new
players emerge?
(Photo: Windwärts Energie GmbH)

64. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S 4 THE WORLD’S 5 GREEN 6 OBAMA AND
PROGRESS” LIONS FORESTS INVESTMENT CLIMATE
IN CHINA CHANGE
6 WILL OBAMA
LEAD ON
CLIMATE CHANGE?
“The issue of climate
change is one that we
ignore at our own peril.”
- Senator Barack Obama, 2006
(Photo: Barack Obama/Flickr)

65. (Bloomberg Businessweek, 2012)

66. EXTREME WEATHER 2012
 2012 to be the hottest
year on record for the
contiguous United States
 67% of global losses
occurred in the U.S.
 $60+ billion in damage
from Hurricane Sandy
 1% of GDP lost
from drought
(Photo: NASA Goddard/Flickr)

67. AMERICANS’ EVOLVING BELIEFS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
67% 68%
believe there is solid of likely voters say global
evidence of the Earth’s warming is a serious
warming1 problem2
74%
believe global warming is
affecting weather in the 1 Pew, Oct 2012
2
United States3 Rasmussen, Nov 2012
3 Yale-George Mason University, Oct 2012

68. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will we see more political leadership
on climate?
2. Who will President Obama appoint
to his cabinet?
3. Will the Obama administration
be a go-getter on climate change?
(Photo: Randy Le’Moine Photography/Flickr)

69. (Photo: National Park Service)

70. 1 WHAT ENERGY MIX?
2 TOWARD “ECOLOGICAL
PROGRESS” IN CHINA?
3 HOW WILL AFRICA’S
LIONS GROW?
4 ARE WE TURNING THE
CORNER ON FORESTS?
5 WILL GREEN INVESTMENT
SURVIVE THE SQUEEZE?
6 WILL OBAMA LEAD
ON CLIMATE CHANGE?