EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
Jason Swanson
Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh
Laura Schlehuber
The European Futures Observat...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
Jason Swanson
Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh
Laura Schlehuber
The European Futures Observat...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
Jason Swanson
Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh
Laura Schlehuber
The European Futures Observat...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
The Basic Model Restated
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
Degree of
Diffusion...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
The Basic Model Restated
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
Degree of
Diffusion...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
The Basic Model Restated
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
Degree of
Diffusion...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
Degree of
Diffusion
Time
The Age of
Informat...
The Basic Model Restated
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
Degree of
Diffusion...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
Jason Swanson
Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh
Laura Schlehuber
The European Futures Observat...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
Jason Swanson
Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh
Laura Schlehuber
The European Futures Observat...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
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© The European Futures Observatory 2014
To misquote Churchill,
it would be a shame
to let a perfectly good
recession go to waste.
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERV...
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
Jason Swanson
Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh
Laura Schlehuber
The European Futures Observat...
Image Credits
EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2014
Image Credits
http://september-
rose.co.uk/img/September_Ros
e_pair_of_court_wedding_rings
_web.jpg
http://flags.redpixart...
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An Age of Stagnation?

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Presented by: Jason Swanson, Kate Burgess-MacIntosh, and Laura Schlehuber

Much time and energy has been spent in an attempt to return the global economy to its pre-recession trajectory. What if it is not possible to return to business as usual? This session will examine the case against a return to business as usual.

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  • Let us just suppose there is a good likelihood that any recovery from the Great Recession will be rather subdued. If we take the view that demand will be somewhat muted as the developed economies re-balance
  • if we take the view that supply will be held back by population growth in the developed economies being subdued;
  • and if we admit the possibility that labour productivity will dip as we move from one technological paradigm to another;
  • then two interesting questions emerge. Can we derive some benefits from this course of events? And second, what is the likely path that will lead us out of this situation?
  • Ever since the Great Recession began, the policy objective has been to restore the developed economies back to where they were before it began.
    We could call this the policy of a return to ‘business as usual.’
    Of course, this policy has not exactly worked, owing to a number of factors.
    As individuals and governments have striven to adjust their balance sheets by paying down their debts, spending in the global economy has relied upon the emerging nations for the growth that has been seen.
  • The policy of austerity in the developed world has effectively denied governments of the ability to use fiscal policy as a means to stimulate aggregate demand.
    This has just left monetary policy for governments to use through the policy of QE, which has had some effect, but not as much as fiscal policy could have done.
     
    The result of this is the squeezing of living standards across the developed economies.
    There is a stark rise in inequality in the societies of the developed world, along with a feeling that governments are not acting in the best interests of the population they serve.
    Governments have responded by a more determined effort to return to the path of an ever growing economy without the effective means to achieve this.
  • There is one area, however, in which the Great Recession has been quite beneficial. With the reduction of economic activity, both on an absolute level and in terms of the output gap - the gap between aggregate demand and supply in a dynamic context – the carbon intensity of economic activity in the developed world has fallen.
    In terms of the prospect of the onset of disruptive climate change, this is quite a beneficial side-effect of the Great Recession.
    It could be argued that the Great Recession provided a unique opportunity to address some of the issues around global warming and climate change.
  • It is can be argued that QE and austerity are, at last, starting to work.
    We would argue differently.
    Much of the recent growth in the developed world has come through the expansion of credit. Individuals and households are borrowing again to finance their lifestyles.
    We would argue this is not sustainable in the longer term because this is precisely the route that led us into the Great Recession to begin with.
    The danger point will come when the credit cycle turns, to the detriment of further economic growth.
  • An alternative path, one that policy makers may eventually find through a process of trial and error, would be to restructure the economies of the developed world so they become investment-led rather than consumption-led.
    This investment is likely to come through a combination of public sector investment and private sector investment.
    If we are right, and the global economy is in a period of transition where it is moving from the information age to another technological paradigm, then it is likely that investment in the new paradigm will lead the global economy back onto the growth path.
  • A recovery will not necessarily turn out to be a stable and sustainable outcome if it does not also deal with the issue of inequality and the improvement of living standards.
    The political climate has the potential to either speed the process of recovery or to slow it down.
    It is becoming evident to many that it may be necessary to implement policies of redistribution in order to speed recovery.
    This is not only within the nations of the developed world, but also in the relations between the developed economies and the emerging economies.
    The key to this is trade, but that means embracing the awkward political issue of confronting some of the vested interests in the developed world.
  • Conclusion
  • An Age of Stagnation?

    1. 1. EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY Jason Swanson Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh Laura Schlehuber The European Futures Observatory AN AGE OF STAGNATION? © The European Futures Observatory 2014
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    23. 23. The Basic Model Restated EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014 Degree of Diffusion Time The Age of Information The Age of Scarcity Growth Phase Maturity Phase 1971 2001 2008 2030 Eruption Frenzy Crisis of Maturity Synergy Maturity Eruption Frenzy
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    38. 38. The Basic Model Restated EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014 Degree of Diffusion Time The Age of Information The Age of Scarcity Growth Phase Maturity Phase 1971 2001 2008 2030 Eruption Frenzy Crisis of Maturity Synergy Maturity Eruption Frenzy
    39. 39. EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014 Degree of Diffusion Time The Age of Information The Age of Scarcity Growth Phase Maturity Phase 1971 2001 2008 2030 Eruption Frenzy Crisis of Maturity Synergy Maturity Eruption Frenzy
    40. 40. The Basic Model Restated EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014 Degree of Diffusion Time The Age of Information The Age of Scarcity Growth Phase Maturity Phase 1971 2001 2008 2030 Eruption Frenzy Crisis of Maturity Synergy Maturity Eruption Frenzy
    41. 41. EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY Jason Swanson Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh Laura Schlehuber The European Futures Observatory AN AGE OF STAGNATION? © The European Futures Observatory 2014
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    61. 61. To misquote Churchill, it would be a shame to let a perfectly good recession go to waste. EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014
    62. 62. EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY Jason Swanson Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh Laura Schlehuber The European Futures Observatory AN AGE OF STAGNATION? © The European Futures Observatory 2014
    63. 63. Image Credits EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014
    64. 64. Image Credits http://september- rose.co.uk/img/September_Ros e_pair_of_court_wedding_rings _web.jpg http://flags.redpixart.com http://www.photo- dictionary.com/photofiles/list/4 19/788suitcase.jpg http://dmjrecruitment.files.word press.com/2012/01/group_of_y oung_people.jpg http://skreened.com/render- product/f/u/v/fuvfzejkcrjeoacsyqya/i-m- not-spoiled-i-m-just-well-taken-care-of- baby-one-piece.american-apparel- baby-one-piece.light- pink.w760h760b3.jpg EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY © The European Futures Observatory 2014

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