Summit on the Global Agenda2008


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Summit on the Global Agenda2008

  1. 1. Summit on the Global Agenda Dubai, United Arab Emirates 7-9 November 2008 Highlights
  2. 2. World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: © 2008 World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. REF: 021208 Contents Page 5 Preface Page 6 Introduction Page 7 Executive Summary Page 11 Economic Development and Growth Page 14 Environment and Sustainability Page 18 Finance and Business Page 22 Geopolitics and Global Governance Page 24 Health Page 28 Regions Page 32 Society and Values Page 34 Technology and Innovation Page 38 Acknowledgements
  3. 3. Preface “This Summit has heightened our appreciation of the urgency and necessity to address global challenges in an integrated way and what needs to be done to improve the state of the world.” Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum The inaugural Summit on the Global Agenda was a The Summit is also historic in its direct link to the truly historic undertaking. Amid the most profound upcoming World Economic Forum Annual Meeting crisis of our generation, the World Economic Forum, in 2009 in Davos-Klosters on the theme, “Shaping the partnership with the Government of Dubai, brought Post-Crisis World”. The outcomes of Global Agenda together 700 Members of the Network of Global Council deliberations will be shared in relevant Agenda Councils, the world’s leading minds, to sessions at the Annual Meeting by the respective address the most important challenges facing the Chairpersons of each Council. Articles on the Summit world in a collaborative, integrated and proactive way. themes as well as the Council Reports will also be integrated in a publication that will be shared with all The Summit, held on 7-9 November 2008 in Dubai, Annual Meeting participants ahead of the Meeting to marked the biggest brainstorming session that has help them navigate the complexity of shaping the ever taken place on the global agenda. It enhanced post-crisis world. our shared understanding of the state of the world and the complexity of global issues while heightening Each one of us needs to be proactive in shaping the our appreciation of the urgency and necessity to global agenda and I count on all Global Agenda address global challenges and what needs to be done Council Members as well as the broader Forum to improve the state of the world. The gathering community to advance the current work of the imbued a greater sense of duty and responsibility, and Councils and help ensure that the world’s leaders are emphasized the need for a “fundamental reboot” of best informed on the most pertinent actions in this the human and organizational operating systems. very crucial time in our history. There is tremendous potential for what the Network of Global Agenda Tremendous richness in the discussions transpired Councils can accomplish and so we look forward to and this Summit Report captures selected highlights. your continued engagement. Throughout the Summit, participants were engaged in many intense and thoughtful small-group discussions within their respective Councils, assessing the state of Klaus Schwab the world on their issue and identifying what needs to Founder and Executive Chairman be done to move the agenda forward. These Council Meetings were interwoven with opportunities to meet with Members of other Councils, to explore more fully the interconnections among global issues and to benefit from cross-disciplinary perspectives and exchanges of ideas. The gist of these discussions is captured in each Council Report, available on our website at 4 | Summit on the Global Agenda 5 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  4. 4. Introduction Executive Summary “The Summit is among the most path-breaking initiatives undertaken by the modern world. As the world’s largest brainstorming event, it is not merely about setting agendas; it is about laying the groundwork towards practical and “Despite the negativity of today’s actionable solutions. We are confident that the situation, we can learn a positive lesson deliberations will be of immense value to the from it. People are decision-makers and people of the world for the long term.” they can write their own history.” Mohamed Alabbar, Chairman, Emaar Properties, United Arab Emirates; His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Co-Chair of the Summit on the Global Agenda Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates; Ruler of Dubai It was an honour and privilege for the Government of The agendas set at the Summit will now have a far- The inaugural Summit on the Global Agenda in Dubai heightened our appreciation of the urgency and Dubai to co-host the inaugural Summit of the World reaching impact on the way governments function, was a landmark event not just because the World necessity to address global challenges in an Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Councils, the businesses are conducted and people meet everyday Economic Forum had never before convened more integrated way and to do what needs to be done to world’s foremost intelligence and knowledge network. challenges. The Dubai Summit, thus, can pave the than 700 thought leaders from business, government improve the state of the world.” way for a new era in global progress. The evaluations and civil society from over 60 countries to brainstorm The world’s finest minds including Nobel Prize of the Summit will serve as a primer for further thought on the most pressing global issues. The true To be sure, nobody can wait for the crisis to correct laureates, industry captains and thought-leaders met and action at the World Economic Forum Annual significance of the Summit will only become apparent itself. The world needs to react quickly but in a in Dubai to share ideas and insights that will assist Meeting 2009 in Davos. in the coming weeks and months, as the work of the deliberate way, with both national solutions and well policy-makers to address the most pressing 68 Global Agenda Councils continues in the run-up to thought out and coordinated global approaches. This challenges that the world faces today. The global interest that the Summit has sparked will and beyond the World Economic Forum Annual is a turning point beyond which is either an improved serve as an inspiration for every participant as, in the Meeting 2009, which will take place in Davos-Klosters world or a much diminished one – the result Hosting the Summit was a testament to the visionary coming days, their thought-processes will be further from 28 January to 1 February under the theme depending on the quality and depth of the leadership of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin discussed and evaluated to eventually become the “Shaping the Post-Crisis World”. collaboration of the international community. “Despite Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime basis for policy-making. the negativity of today’s situation, we can learn a Minister of the United Arab Emirates, and Ruler of The convening of what World Economic Forum positive lesson from it,” suggested His Highness Dubai. His commitment to action and execution As the world at large enters into a new era of Founder and Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice- makes him a global thought-leader. unprecedented challenges and opportunities, the called “the largest ever brainstorming on the global President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Summit was a timely, collective and truly global effort agenda”, just as the worst global financial crisis since Emirates and Ruler of Dubai. “People are decision- Though the Summit came amidst the global financial to pave the way for meaningful change that can be the Great Depression began to hit real economies makers and they can write their own history.” crisis, the direction of the Council meetings was to brought about only through constructive thinking across the world, was a coincidence. But the context take a holistic and integrated approach to global followed by positive action. gave Summit participants a raw sense of urgency that As former President of Mexico Ernesto Zedillo Ponce issues and set agendas based on long-term strategic focused their discussions and prompted lively de Leon, Director of the Yale Center for the Study of perspectives. Out of the nearly 70 issues that were We are honoured that Dubai was chosen as the venue exchanges and debates over the three-day meeting Globalization at Yale University, USA, pointed out, “the debated at the Summit, 40 are pressing global of the meeting and hope that the city’s unique that launched a long-term process to help shape the way in which we manage this crisis will have a lasting challenges ranging from the improvement of the global ambience has inspired insightful thinking. We look agenda of the post-crisis world. effect on the global economy. We could have very bad trade regime to climate change and food and water forward to welcoming Council Members to the ideas and those bad ideas to confront the crisis could security. The topics addressed significantly influence forthcoming sessions of the Summit in our city. “This is truly an extraordinary period in the history of have lasting and costly consequences for years to the lives of people from all walks of life. humankind,” said Schwab. “It is a time of crisis, come. We could have good ideas that are unprecedented uncertainty and even fear. But it is also implemented well and when we overcome the short- Mohamed Alabbar ushering in the opportunity to make much needed term crisis, we would then be in a better situation to Co-Chairman of the Summit on the Global Agenda changes.” He concluded: “The Summit has confront the future than we were in before the crisis.” 6 | Summit on the Global Agenda 7 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  5. 5. Economic Development and Growth Finance and Business Health Concluded Summit Co-Chair Mohamed Alabbar, Chairman of Emaar Properties, United Arab Emirates: this meeting “is not merely about setting agendas; it is The financial crisis and its impact have not fuelled calls The unfolding financial crisis is leading to the bleakest A critical concern, especially during periods of about laying the groundwork towards practical and for the free-market system to be discarded. On the economic downturn since the Great Depression. The economic stress, is health. Cheap preventive actionable solutions. We are confident that the contrary, Global Agenda Councils agreed that the turmoil could derail the global economy unless the strategies to guard against bad health exist but they deliberations will be of immense value to the people of fundamental operating system of the global economy public and private sectors work together to come up are undervalued and underfunded. Better prevention the world for the long term.” remains sound. with efficient and effective solutions. through health promotion is essential. • The crisis should not be used as an excuse to • Governments around the world have been • Enormous inefficiencies exist in healthcare systems. The world needs a “fundamental reboot” of its basic backslide on tariff reductions and undertake ill- employing the right sets of monetary and fiscal New social compacts embedding health entitlement operating systems, participants agreed at the end of founded and counterproductive regulatory policies in their toolbox. But the crisis has are needed. the Summit. The Global Agenda Councils are the interventions in the markets. undermined the perceived advantage of open • More information and communication on health foundation of a brain trust that the stakeholders in the • Better oversight of the financial sector is necessary, financial and capital markets, even raising doubts issues are necessary. Preventive measures and crisis hope will lead to fresh software that will run new, but regulatory reform should not be overdone. about the viability of the capitalist system. education are key. more effective and sustainable systems of global • The crisis demands greater transparency; there • In dealing with the crisis, governments will be the • Preparation against pandemics must be stepped governance for the 21st Century. should be no cutback on data collection and the main actors. Key responses that must move forward up. Openness will not hinder the full collaboration of availability of crucial statistics. include economic stimulus measures and all actors and will help identify interconnected risks Highlights of the discussions in each of the 68 Global • While the economic downturn has limited the coordinated interest-rate cuts. and opportunities for mitigation. Agenda Councils may be found on the World political space for addressing international migration • Critical elements of a new international financial • Health promotion, disease prevention and disaster Economic Forum website at and reforming national pension systems, low-key architecture should include better regulatory preparedness must be treated as capital efforts to shape policies should continue in capacity, higher standards of governance in the investments rather than current expenditure. anticipation of a time when crisis-inspired concerns private sector, stronger links between • Stronger and more effective governance and The Global Agenda Councils were grouped into eight about unemployment abate. macroeconomic policies and regulation, more leadership on chronic disease and malnutrition focus areas: Economic Development and Growth, • New business models and technologies are needed probing analysis of economic and financial should be developed, especially through public- Environment and Sustainability, Finance and Business, to broaden the economic base and diversify risk by information, clearer rules of engagement for private partnerships with clear objectives. Geopolitics and Global Governance, Health, Regions, drawing the “bottom billions” into the mainstream of government involvement in the private sector, and Society and Values, and Technology and Innovation. the financial sector so they too can enjoy the wider engagement of market segments that are Regions This report includes articles reviewing the Council benefits of modern credit, savings and insurance. underserved. discussions under each broad topic. • Increased regulation should not lead to protectionism. Due to the financial crisis and other global concerns, Environment and Sustainability • An urgent goal must be to restore confidence and fear is dominating the international agenda. It is critical hope in the markets. that trust is restored to markets and to geopolitical The fuel, food and financial crises are alarm bells relations. warning of the unsustainability of global consumption. • Global Agenda Councils underscored the need to Geopolitics and Global Governance A new mindset is needed. resist protectionism and conclude the Doha Round • Risk must be properly priced. Appropriately of trade negotiations. But to do so will require the evaluated risk must then be embedded in all human Existing mechanisms must be employed to better subordination of national interests in favour of the practices and decisions. effect to prevent and deal with global governance greater regional and global good at a time of • Opportunities to reduce energy use and carbon failures including economic crises, failed states and economic stress. emissions, especially through technology cross-border conflicts. But the current international • Efforts should be made to rebuild confidence in improvements and behavioural changes, and to order cannot handle many challenges such as climate markets. This will require the involvement of major “The current financial crisis is causing promote alternative energies can be accelerated as change and the threat of terrorism. emerging economies in discussions over a new a profound transformation in the people gain awareness of their ecological footprint. • The international community should heed the wake- international financial architecture. • The world must double food production in the next up calls and acknowledge that the times demand • On the environmental front, countries must political landscape. It is important that 40 years to meet demand. more than business as usual. collaborate to forge by 2010 a post-Kyoto Protocol world leaders think carefully about the • The key to solving global problems from poverty to • On many issues, there is a need to sacrifice framework to address climate change. post-crisis world and how we can climate change is the need to come to grips with sovereignty for the greater gain, as nations must • Various regions must address specific concerns. For improve global governance.” expanding urbanization and the social inequality that develop new collaborative rules of the game in example, Europe needs to come to terms with a results from it. many areas, just as they have done in trade. resurgent Russia, while Africa must work to diversify • A comprehensive and sustainable new energy • A key focus must be to strengthen the international its economies to decrease the continent’s Fiona Paua, Senior Director, Head of Strategic Insight Teams, paradigm is needed. The financial crisis is likely to legal system and the global rule of law. dependence on commodity exports. The challenge and Head of the Network of Global Agenda Councils weed out inefficient business models and promote • While nation states remain the main geopolitical for China and India is to maintain high sustainable the expansion of the clean energy and technology actors, new powers are expected to take on more growth to contribute to global stability as the crisis sectors and sustainable design. prominent roles in global governance, especially unfolds. through formats of enhanced importance such as • Effective and vigorous leadership is crucial to the G20 or new ones such as a revamped UN addressing the multiplicity of complex global and Security Council. regional challenges. 8 | Summit on the Global Agenda 9 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  6. 6. Economic Development and Growth Society and Values Technology and Innovation Wherever there are markets, market players – whether • Government works best when it focuses on the the government, business or the consumer – will financing or provision of infrastructure and other To address pressing global challenges requires the During an economic downturn, technology and always be looking for new drivers of economic public goods, the efficient correction of market development of the human potential of all people innovation can serve as potent sources of growth so development and growth. But it is difficult to put failures and the maintenance of a humane, but regardless of race, ethnicity, religion, gender or long as the investment and talent are there to drive forward a “unified theory” of how to achieve growth – incentive-driven, social safety net. geographic location. Discrimination and poverty them. different circumstances demand the pulling of different remain major impediments to this goal. • Because of its severity, the crisis is likely to be a levers. Yet much of the world has come to accept a The Councils in this group, said Rapporteur David E. • Education must be used to shape the values of game-changing factor that will prompt the adoption set of guiding principles – that trade drives growth, for Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of citizens, especially young people. Religious of new technologies and innovations that will example – as good policy. The financial crisis and its Economics and Demography, Harvard School of traditions can be important bases for promoting change the productivity of industries and alter the impact on the real economy have not led many Public Health, USA, in his report in the closing plenary dialogue and understanding. competitive advantages of economies. people, if any, to conclude that the free-market system in Dubai, concluded that “it would be sheer folly to let • Visionary leadership and the media can also play • The expansion of global networks such as the is somehow fatally flawed and should be discarded. faith in this system be shaken by the financial and important roles in promoting positive change and Internet and the convergence of the Internet with On the contrary, as the discussions of the Global economic crises and to backslide on tariff reductions bringing people together. mobile communications are resulting in the creative Agenda Councils in this group made clear, there is and other key aspects of trade policy, or to undertake • Youth represent an untapped potential. They need destruction of business models and the growing widespread acknowledgement that the basic ill-founded and counterproductive regulatory to be perceived as problem solvers rather than the recognition that the current intellectual property operating fundamentals of the market system have interventions in markets.” problem. rights (IPR) regime must be reformed to ensure that produced phenomenal improvements in living • Children, families and their welfare should be at the it does not impede technological progress and standards around the world and remain sound. heart of the global agenda. To improve education, innovation. healthcare and child protection requires a • The consumer is driving technological developments The bottom-line principles of economic development multistakeholder approach. and innovation. Education systems that promote and growth that emerged from the deliberations of the • Other vehicles for enhancing social cohesion and thinking in silos rather than a multidisciplinary Councils are: community building include faith, information approach should be revamped. The world needs a technology, journalism and sport. “fundamental reboot” of education. • Where possible, competitive markets are the most • Cyber crime, censorship, linguistic barriers and the effective means of resource allocation. vested interests of traditional IPR gatekeepers may “It would be sheer folly to let faith in this hinder innovation and the creation of new • Entrepreneurial activity, technological progress and technologies. the accumulation of physical and human capital system be shaken by the financial and • Capital is still king. To drive technology development make extraordinary contributions to economic economic crises and to backslide on tariff and innovation requires funding. growth. reductions and other key aspects of trade policy, or to undertake ill-founded and • As the Commission on Growth and Development counterproductive regulatory interventions chaired by Nobel laureate Michael Spence found, in markets.” no country has successfully developed without trade. David E. Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard School of Public Health, USA 10 | Summit on the Global Agenda 11 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  7. 7. Councils focusing on Economic Development and Growth There is certainly reason for better oversight and tighter labour markets are on the horizon. But, as with regulation of the financial sector to rein in the recent migration policy, the room for addressing this issue by Financial Empowerment excesses but doing so must not be at the expense of raising the retirement age has narrowed significantly in value creation which needs stimulating. “How can light of the spreading crisis. industries help solve these problems?” asked Edward B. Roberts, Founder and Chairman of the MIT The final set of messages from the Global Agenda Demographic Shifts Entrepreneurship Center, USA. “Let’s make sure not to Councils relating to economic development and suppress the people who have created jobs for growth has to do with strategies for going on the centuries [or their solutions].” offensive against costly inefficiencies and missing markets. These include policies of human capital Experts and thought leaders in Dubai opposed investment that are more inclusive of women and Benchmarking Progress in statistical blackouts, or cutbacks on data collection minorities. They also include policies that promote Society that might be expected due to tighter government gender- and race-blind rates of return on those budgets or the desire to avoid communicating bad investments. They include encouraging social news. Instead, they called for greater transparency entrepreneurs to identify high-impact health, education and more rational decision-making that requires more and poverty-reduction initiatives that can turn into Economic Growth and and better statistics, not excuses for getting by with viable commercial ventures that are efficient, scaleable Development less. and sustainable. International migration was another key issue that And finally, there is the need to review inadequate concerned Council members. Until a few months ago, business models and reform antiquated regulations many Summit participants would have readily that undermine the use of new information accepted that the world should develop a principled technologies such as mobile telephony. New banking system for governing the movement of people across models and novel technologies have substantial Philanthropy borders. Although the economic and demographic unrealized potential for drawing the bottom billions into and Social Investing pressures for migration are substantial, there are fewer the mainstream of the financial sector so they too can than 200 million people living in countries other than enjoy the benefits of modern credit, savings and the one in which they were born. This represents less insurance. Access to those products would enable than 3% of the world’s population, suggesting that people to save for lean times, conduct consumer freer mobility may be an especially potent way to transactions more easily, gain access to better realize further gains from globalization. It would at healthcare and education for their children, and start least boost remittances, which have become such an businesses and grow them. The goal: to foster an The Gender Gap important driver of growth in many countries. inclusive financial system that broadens the economic base and diversifies risks. But as the deliberations in Dubai made clear, in the Migration context of an unfolding global financial crisis, an increasingly complicated set of political, social and Councils focusing on Economic economic winner-loser calculations would have to be Development and Growth considered. With the prospect of increased Global Agenda Council on: unemployment in many economies, this is not the Benchmarking Progress in Society right time to take on the thorny issue of international migration. Instead, experts might better use this time Demographic Shifts of economic turbulence to quietly work out the Economic Growth and Development The Skills architecture of a global system of international Financial Empowerment Gap migration to be ready when the stars are more The Gender Gap favourably aligned. Migration Philanthropy and Social Investing The same goes for national retirement policies, which have been remarkably stagnant in the face of a two- The Skills Gap decade increase in global life expectancy in just the Social Entrepreneurship past 50 years and a demographic shift that has the Trade Facilitation Social Entrepreneurship global population aged 60 and over increasing from 670 million to 2 billion between now and 2050. Retirement incentives that peak at age 65 no longer make sense in a world in which life expectancy has Trade Facilitation risen so sharply, skills gaps have widened and even 12 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  8. 8. Environment and Sustainability Although the world largely failed to heed the early Part of this new proposed mindset involves what the Some of the actions recommended by Council • Key to solving any of the global problems of poverty, warning signs of the economic turmoil now unfolding, Rapporteur for this theme, Josette Sheeran, Executive Members in this area include: sustainability, pandemics, civil unrest, gender equity, the three alarm bells warning of the unsustainability of Director of the United Nations World Food Programme adaptation to climate change and others is the need the system – the fuel, food and financial crises – must (WFP), Rome, called “transformational transactions” • The world must double food production in the next to come to grips with the world’s expanding not fall on deaf ears. Indeed, for the Council Members that bring about fundamental change. These must be 40 years to meet projected demand. But our ability urbanization and its concomitant social inequality. whose discussions revolved around the broad theme identified by all the stakeholders as they find solutions to meet current and future production needs is The opportunities and promise of urbanization can of the Environment and Sustainability, these signals, to the world’s pressing challenges, advancing with challenged by increasing water scarcity, climate be solved by competent localization of governance. termed the “three canaries in the mine”, must be confidence yet mindful not to reverse the international acknowledged and reappraised. “Transform”, “shift”, gains achieved, for instance, in trade and openness. change, and volatile energy costs and supplies. Competent localization means the creation of local “restructure”, “reboot”, were all words used again and New, environmentally sustainable solutions for food governments with the fiscal resources and the again during the Summit on the Global Agenda to Members of the Global Agenda Councils deliberating production must be developed to jointly address technical competence to carry out their mandates describe what needs to be done to tackle the deep the issues related to the environment and food, water and energy needs in an integrated way. to provide infrastructure and public services. structural challenges related to food and water sustainability suggested changing their theme name to Private-sector business models that improve food Empowering local governments is the key. Local security, climate change, unsustainable business “Reappraising Risk”. Risk must be properly priced. production, incomes and empowerment can play a empowerment requires enhancing the quantity and models or the energy paradigm. A new mindset is Correctly evaluated risk must then be embedded in all key role in improving food security. quality of information available to local decision- needed. human practices and decisions. Similarly, greater makers. focus on risk management systems is needed. Thus • Important opportunities for reducing energy use and throughout their work and recommendations, Council CO2 emissions exist via technology improvements Members reiterated the importance of not • A comprehensive and sustainable new energy underestimating or underpricing risks. and behavioural changes. Innovations that are about paradigm is needed. In the developed world, this to become available in vehicle technology and paradigm requires energy efficiency, smart grid Along with the risks, great potential exists in this time mobility management need to be commercialized. technologies and grid-connected renewables. In of crisis and unprecedented change. Opportunities for These include vehicle technology alternatives, e.g. rural parts of the developing world that often lack reducing energy use and CO2 emissions as well as electric drive vehicles (battery-electric vehicles and access to grid power, great potential exists for promoting alternative energies can be accelerated as hybrid-electric vehicles) and the integration of IT transformative, low-carbon, off-grid solutions. The people gain awareness of their individual ecological technologies into road vehicles and mobility essential enabler for this sustainable energy footprint and businesses finance environmental and management. paradigm is governments’ adoption of clear, long- other “green economy” projects in their search for term, stable, carbon-pricing mechanisms. value creation, recognition and revenues. Meanwhile “The international public sector needs • The public sector has a particularly vital role to play the financial crisis has brought to the fore the interconnectedness of the world’s economies, driving in creating effective standards and in developing • The financial crisis could force a useful shakeout rebooting. Markets need rebooting. We home to an even greater extent the potential of large and enforcing appropriate regulations to cope with that weeds out unsustainable business models and are confident that you have the vision markets while simultaneously demonstrating how negative risk-based externalities and to encourage leaves a stronger, more vibrant and clean quickly international action and cooperation can be to do this. We need to turn this fear the mitigation, preparedness and prevention of technology sector in its wake. marshalled when concerted commitment is needed. into confidence. The reboot starts natural disasters. Leaders should approach natural The tone of optimism in the opportunities and change disasters in the context of a comprehensive risk here.” made possible in today’s search for solutions was management framework, focusing on the mitigation recurrent during the Summit as Council Members Josette Sheeran, Executive Director, United Nations World of the consequences of natural risks. proposed fundamental changes that are currently Food Programme (WFP), Rome possible. 14 | Summit on the Global Agenda 15 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  9. 9. Councils focusing on the Environment and Sustainability Alternative Energies Climate Change Design The Mitigation of Natural Disasters The Future of Mining and Metals • Once a tool of consumption chiefly involved in the production of objects and images, design is now Food Security also engaged with developing and building systems and strategies, and in changing behaviour in collaboration with different disciplines. Designers can play a critical role in ensuring that products, systems and services are developed, produced, Humanitarian Assistance shipped, sold and will eventually be disposed of in an ethically and environmentally responsible manner. Ecosystems and Councils focusing on the Environment and Sustainability Biodiversity Loss Global Agenda Council on: Alternative Energies The Future Climate Change of Sustainable Design Ecosystems and Biodiversity Loss Construction Food Security The Future of Mining and Metals Water Security The Future of Sustainable Construction The Future of Transportation Humanitarian Assistance The Mitigation of Natural Disasters Urban Management The Future Water Security of Transportation Urban Management 16 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  10. 10. Finance and Business As the current financial crisis continued to unfold – The intensification of the current economic crisis and inter-bank markets persists. “Capital flows to • Everyone who is engaged in the crises has to have highlighting the limitations of the existing regime of threatens to derail the global economy, unless the emerging markets in particular have been severely a seat at the table with the objective of achieving a global coordination and regulation – experts and public and private sectors can work together to come impacted – many businesses are literally shut out of globally coordinated response. This is necessary for thought leaders at the Summit on the Global Agenda up with efficient and effective solutions. Financial the market and can’t get capital,” stated theme both immediate crisis management and the ongoing painted the outlook for the global economy as the stability and systemic risk rapidly emerge among the Rapporteur Suzanne Nora Johnson, Trustee, Carnegie development of market regulations. bleakest most have ever seen. top political and economic concerns around the Institution of Washington, USA. • Intense government responses to date must world. “We have witnessed a spectacular divorce of continue – Council Members are convinced that the The risk of a serious economic slowdown is fast risk from responsibility,” observed Richard O’Brien, Real estate is described as a common entry point for becoming reality in several countries. No country or Co-Founder and Partner, Outsights, United Kingdom. investments in many developed and emerging stimulus measures are key and monetary relief in industry is seen as immune from the repercussions. markets facing relatively little bureaucracy and being a the form of short-term interest rate cuts is very However, the collateral damage will not be limited to place to make a very measurable return. But the important. And while government intervention is the business and financial sectors; it will also impact fundamental mismatch in the value of real estate here to stay – at least for the short term – it is wider society, where many beneficiaries of the assets relative to income and profit levels drove necessary to much better communicate government incredible economic growth of the past few years, market prices too high and set the sector up for a intentions and actions to a sceptical public. such as charities and NGOs, have traditionally sharp fall. depended on the largesse of the global economy. In the intermediate and longer term, the following “The fuel to fire was very significant,” said Nora actions are described as critical elements for the The crisis is rooted in macroeconomic imbalances – Johnson. “Very ambitious short-term shareholder naissance of a new global financial architecture: among them long regimes of low interest rates and return objectives, management incentives and public high asset prices as well as credit, trade and savings policies across the board encouraged excessive risk imbalances – and failures across the board in risk taking and leverage.” • Build capacity and capability of regulatory management and risk assessment. None of the authorities both in national and international market participants – be they governments, The political knock-on effects are considerable too. frameworks and forums (including quality of talent, regulators, investors, financial institutions, rating The crisis has undermined the perceived advantage of compensation and the capability to compete with agencies, media or households – are exempt from open financial and capital markets, and even put into “Capital flows to emerging markets in very complex and globally interrelated capital carrying responsibility. The lack of credible and doubt the essence of capitalism itself. particular have been severely markets) accountable corporate governance structures • Improve governance in the private sector, both in portrayed as another ignored warning sign. The Global Agenda Councils on the theme of Finance impacted – many businesses are and Business had a strong sense that in the short developed and emerging markets literally shut out of the market and Governments around the world have been very term, the key actors in the financial system will be • Ensure greater linkages between macroeconomic can’t get capital.” actively engaged and have, according to the Council governments. Acting both as regulators and owners, policies and regulators Members, employed the right sets of monetary and they will have two immediate responsibilities: • Carry out greater synthesis and analysis in the Suzanne Nora Johnson, Trustee, Carnegie Institution of fiscal policies from their toolbox. And despite that very aggregate, as transparency and information is not Washington, USA active engagement, severe dysfunction in credit, bank enough 18 | Summit on the Global Agenda 19 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  11. 11. Councils focusing on Finance and Business Corporate Governance Economic Imbalances Emerging Multinationals Entrepreneurship • Define the rules of engagement for government Councils focusing on Finance and Business involvement in the private sector. There is a clear difference between being a regulator and being a Global Agenda Council on: shareholder. Changed competitive dynamics will Corporate Governance Financial Market emerge for private sector companies that are left Economic Imbalances Development out of government bail-out plans. Ongoing Emerging Multinationals consultations on collaboration and in many Entrepreneurship instances government exit strategies will be critical Financial Market Development • Continue to invest in the private sector and capacity within emerging markets – there are still massive The Future of Real Estate growth opportunities for business Global Capital Flows • Engage the “underserved” to a much larger degree Marketing and Branding The Future Systemic Financial Risk Two caveats, however, remain. The first is the great of Real Estate concern that increased regulation will lead to more protectionism. The Councils advocated that everything Global Capital Flows be done to avoid restrictions to trade, capital market movements or regulatory arbitrage. An important role may be played by emerging multinationals that now have greater opportunity than in the past to emerge as two-way ambassadors of responsible globalization, engaging in international trade discussions while advocating fewer trade barriers in their home markets. Marketing and Branding The second is that for any successful outcome, public stakeholders need to be re-instilled with a sense of confidence and hope for the future. Or as Kishore Systemic Mahbubani, Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Financial Risk Public Policy, Singapore, so aptly put it, “You need the visible hand of good governance to balance the invisible hand of economic activity.” 20 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  12. 12. Geopolitics and Global Governance in the private and public sectors is a pervasive problem nations have to work together to draft the rules of the United Nations Security Council is finally revamped to requiring concerted action. Participants called for all game. An especially urgent priority: a new framework for reflect that principle. “At the core of the global crisis is a stakeholders to sign on to the World Economic Forum’s the international financial architecture. “If we can do it in collapse of trust,” reckoned Thomas Sugrue, Edmund J. Partnering Against Corruption Initiative, a business- trade, why not in other areas?” asked Mahbubani, and Louise W. Kahn Professor of History and Sociology driven multi-sectoral partnership to combat corruption referring to the mechanisms of the World Trade at the University of Pennsylvania, USA. “A key to around the world. To bridge widening digital divides that Organization. overcoming distrust is inclusive leadership, specifically are increasing social divisions within countries and recognizing the voice of marginalized groups.” between economies, thought leaders proposed a Digital The Councils focused on the importance of remedying Marshall Plan. Heading off conflicts between states deficiencies in the international legal system. Yet not all the new players brought in from the margins requires coordinated efforts to defuse potentially volatile Strengthening the global rule of law would help the are eager to have greatness thrust upon them. China, “Problems cross borders without situations early. While its institutional framework may international community deal with pressing global for example, is clearly ambivalent about taking on a passports but we expect solutions to need to be reformed to reflect 21st-Century realities, the problems from pollution to pandemics. The chief greater role in international affairs, even though much of United Nations remains the most valuable forum for obstacle to achieving this is the lingering reluctance to the rest of the world thinks it should and will do so cross borders with passports.” such preventive diplomacy. agree on collaborative solutions. “Problems cross eventually. “What we want to do is share responsibility Kishore Mahbubani, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public borders without passports but we expect solutions to with other countries,” said Cheng Siwei, President of the Policy, Singapore For many of the world’s problems, governance solutions cross borders with passports,” Mahbubani explained. China Association for Soft Science Studies, People’s or approaches to address them already exist, some Republic of China. The Global Agenda Councils that discussed Geopolitics working well, some not so effectively. Yet many To be sure, none of the Councils advocated global and Global Governance issues identified three challenges clearly cannot be handled by the current government but instead preferred governance models in Councils focusing on Geopolitics and Global fundamental failures that may occur in this area: order, said Rapporteur Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of the which nation states are still the main actors. But new Governance • Global market failure such as the financial crisis that is Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore. collaborative formats obviously have to be drawn out. unfolding and beginning to affect real economies Climate change is a stark example. The world has “The world expects new powers to provide greater Global Agenda Council on: • A failed state, or a country that is unable to meet the struggled to shape collaborative protocols that global leadership,” said Mahbubani. Participants Corruption responsibilities implied by sovereignty sufficiently deal with the problem. The threat of terrorist generally recognized that the G20 summit on the Energy Security • Intergovernmental failure, a dispute or conflict attacks and the proliferation of weapons and materials financial crisis in Washington DC in November is a between nations of mass destruction are also risks that existing tactics landmark event that heralds the welcome extension of Fragile States may not adequately mitigate. Meanwhile, “illicit trade is governance over the international financial architecture, The Future of Governments These failures arise for various reasons, from stubborn growing deep and pernicious,” noted Mahbubani, however superficial, from the G7 industrialized nations Global Governance resistance to the prevailing norms set by the concluding that “we have a dangerous cocktail of to the wider group that includes both developed and The Global Trade Regime international community to an absence of the political problems staring at us.” developing countries, including major emerging Illicit Trade will to compromise or find common ground with economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil. The International Legal System neighbours or between vying interests within a country. To confront this troublesome mix requires first and foremost the recognition that “it is not business as The international community appears finally to have Negotiation and Conflict Resolution Councils discussed various initiatives to address usual,” as Mahbubani said. “We need a wake-up call.” crossed a Rubicon, with no going back: for any global Terrorism, Proliferation and WMDs governance problems that could lead to such Second, countries must examine the boundaries of governance structure to be truly legitimate, it must catastrophes. Corruption in governance at all levels and sovereignty and the need to sacrifice sovereignty for the henceforth combine the voices of the established and greater gain of the international community. Third, the emerging. It is only a matter of time before the 22 | Summit on the Global Agenda 23 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  13. 13. Health important message for all: cheap preventive strategies Related initiatives recommended by Council Members in • Health promotion, disease prevention and disaster that guard against bad health exist – but they are this area include: preparedness must be treated as capital investments undervalued and underinvested. One example given by rather than current expenditure, both in formal Rapporteur Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute • Health professionals must engage others to prepare accounting terms and in the policy-making process. for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of for pandemics by connecting with diverse Washington, USA, to illustrate this point is the vision of a multistakeholders and sectors (government, civil • More effective means of strengthening governance world without HIV/AIDS through preventative measures society, business). Health issues should be and leadership on chronic disease and malnutrition and campaigns. Despite such efforts, the vision has not considered as societal and not exclusively as health should be developed, including investing in chronic been achieved. Greater prevention through health related challenges. They are interconnected, requiring disease prevention and nutrition science, and promotion is necessary and requires better a multistakeholder approach and stronger private strengthening public-private partnerships with clear consideration and appreciation. Against chronic sector involvement. objectives. “The only way that chronic disease diseases, simple, effective solutions are at hand, such as tobacco control, salt reduction and regular physical • Preparations against pandemics have been initiated in can be addressed is through exercise, all of which are manageable prevention tactics. most countries but have far to go before they prove Councils focusing on Health [understanding] connections.” adequate. If nations are not prepared when the Along with underappreciated preventive medicine, pandemic starts, its social and economic impacts will Christopher Murray, Director, Institute for Health Metrics and Global Agenda Council on: Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA another key concern the group highlighted are the last for several months, even years. This impact can The Challenges of Gerontology enormous inefficiencies within the healthcare system. A be mitigated through the scaling up of worldwide Chronic Diseases and Malnutrition new social compact embedded in national constitutions preparedness at a cost that is a fraction of the Healthcare Systems Health is an essential concern. Massive progress in is needed, one that lists available health interventions potential disruption induced by the pandemic. HIV/AIDS healthcare was made in the 20th Century but reversals and entitlements that can then be measured and Pandemics including looming pandemics and HIV/AIDS appeared accounted for. A related element is the critical need for • Information on health – the collection, aggregation late in the Century. Today’s healthcare challenges are information. Such information would answer the and analysis of data on health and its determinants – very complex. The need to reduce maternal and infant questions, “What’s happening in the field? Are we is critical to allow prioritization, benchmarking and mortality and other objectives are listed in the Millennium making progress?” Enhanced communication on issues accountability in the field. An international charter on Development Goals but different, more recent of health would generate a culture of evidence and health data would help make the information a public phenomena including a decline in fertility rates and an accountability. good accessible to all potential actors in the sector. increasingly ageing population place additional burdens Enhanced information can challenge vested interests. on healthcare systems. In addition, mental health and The group had three calls to action: injuries require greater attention. • Build capacity foresight by stressing preventive • Experience from disease outbreaks such as SARS medicine and measures suggests that openness about risks will not hinder the Health is also critical to the economy. One-tenth of • Create a set of entitlements that are actionable and full engagement of all actors in a collaborative economic activity is attributed to healthcare; productivity measurable preparedness effort, and will help the identification of and economic growth are affected by health. Yet the five • Build the ingredients of knowledge, an information interconnected risks and opportunities for mitigation. Global Agenda Councils concerned with health issues base that informs and educates Equity of access to biological and other identified a key paradox which they translated into an countermeasures is also needed. 24 | Summit on the Global Agenda 25 | Summit on the Global Agenda
  14. 14. Councils focusing on Geopolitics Councils focusing and Global Governance on Health Corruption The Challenges of Gerontology Energy Security Fragile States Chronic Diseases and Malnutrition The Future of Governments The Global Trade Regime Healthcare Global Systems Governance The International HIV/AIDS Legal System Illicit Trade Terrorism, Proliferation and WMDs Pandemics Negotiation and Conflict Resolution 26 | Summit on the Global Agenda 27 | Summit on the Global Agenda