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The urgency and challenge of 1 5 degree lifestyles anu manty and lewis akenji wcef2018

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World Circular Economy Forum 2018 Japan
The urgency and challenge of 1 5 degree lifestyles anu manty and lewis akenji wcef2018

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The urgency and challenge of 1 5 degree lifestyles anu manty and lewis akenji wcef2018

  1. 1. • Raising awareness? • Eco-labels? • Changing light bulbs? • Recycling?
  2. 2. The shape of tomorrow Observations from emerging trends and foresight studies
  3. 3. To be or not to be? To have or not to have? To be or to have? What is the question again?
  4. 4. Flattening and merging trends • Between consumption and production • Between social trends and individualization • Ownership structure • Merging of online and offline living • Merging of work and private life • Information use and knowledge • Traditional services and digital
  5. 5. More constraints interlinked pressures from environment and resources Speed of changes in technology, employment, economic paradigm, education Widening gaps in inequality, polarization, demographic changes Anticipated Changes in Society by 2050 Source: Source: IGES based on the Global Foresight Survey of Potential Changes in Society
  6. 6. Name Goal 1.5S 2 °C with CCS 2S 2 °C with CCS 1.5D 1.5 °C without or with less CCS Current: 4.5-5 ton/cap/year GHG from household consumption 3 (2.5-3.2) ton by 2030 2 (1.4-2.2) ton by 2040 1 (0.7-1.5) ton by 2050 Household footprint share is assumed as 72%. Carbon footprint targets per capita for 2° and 1.5° goals Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-matonthebasisofRockströmetal.2017,Rogeljet al.2011,Rangeretal.2012,vanVuurenetal.2018,UnitedNations2017,Hertwich&
  7. 7. 2030 Target 3 ton/cap/yr 2050 Target 1 ton/cap/yr 10.4t 7.6t 4.2t 2.8t 2.0t-89% -73% -86% -63% -74% -32% -61% -45% Source: IGES, Aalto University, D-ma Footprint gap Current Per-Capita Lifestyles Carbon Footprint: 2030 and 2050 Targets
  8. 8. Implications and reflections • The small-action trap • Techno optimism • Consumer scapegoatism • We still need to meet basic needs of ~30% global population, and accommodate ~30% increase in middleclass! • The magnitude and urgency of transition is understated • Immense capacity building would be needed to accommodate the degree of transformation, forced or intentional
  9. 9. Towards solutions Understanding what shapes consumption and lifestyles
  10. 10. People do not consume with the intention to harm the environment; environmental impact is an unintended consequence of the pursuit of well-being! People consume… • to meet essential needs • to meet social expectations • to satisfy personal desires • because they are railroaded and urged to
  11. 11. Do Nothing MODAL SHIFT to low-carbon mode IMPROVE efficiency of existing options REDUCE large amounts
  12. 12. If 30% of the Finns make changes in their diets … Vegan diet Food loss reduction Reduction of sweets and alcohol MODAL SHIFT to low-carbon mode IMPROVE efficiency REDUCE large amounts Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-mat
  13. 13. If 30% of the Japanese make changes in their ways of living … Renewable electricity Insulation of houses Saving of hot water MODAL SHIFT to low-carbon mode IMPROVE efficiency Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-mat
  14. 14. If 30% of Japanese and Finns change the way they move … TeleworkingCar-free shopping and leisure MODAL SHIFT to low-carbon mode Electric vehicle IMPROVE efficiency Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-mat
  15. 15. Akenji & Chen (2016) A framework for shaping sustainable lifestyles: determinants and strategies Determinants of Sustainable Lifestyles The Attitude-Facilitators-Infrastructure (AFI) Framework
  16. 16. 3 171 650 766 kgCO2e -50% 1 585 825 383 kgCO2e

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