SlideShare a Scribd company logo
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
0 5 10 15 20
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
Data on putts in pro golf
Distance from hole (feet)
Probabilityofsuccess
1346/1443
577/694
337/455
208/353
149/272
136/256
111/240
69/217
67/200
75/237
52/202
46/192
54/174
28/167
27/201
31/195
33/191
20/147
24/152
1/33
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
0 5 10 15 20
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
What's the probability of making a golf putt?
Distance from hole (feet)
Probabilityofsuccess
Logistic regression,
a = 2.2, b = −0.3
2/33
Geometry-based model
x
R
r
−2σ 0 2σ
3/33
Stan code
data {
int J;
int n[J];
real x[J];
int y[J];
real r;
real R;
}
parameters {
real<lower=0> sigma;
}
model {
real p[J];
for (j in 1:J)
p[j] <- 2*Phi(asin((R-r)/x[j]) / sigma) - 1;
y ~ binomial(n, p);
}
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
0 5 10 15 20
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
What's the probability of making a golf putt?
Distance from hole (feet)
Probabilityofsuccess
Geometry−based model,
sigma = 1.5
5/33
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
0 5 10 15 20
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
Two models fit to the golf putting data
Distance from hole (feet)
Probabilityofsuccess
Logistic regression,
a = 2.2, b = −0.3
Geometry−based model,
sigma = 1.5
6/33
A tougher model
1. Sum of declining exponentials:
y = a1e−b1x
+ a2e−b2x
2. Statistical version:
yi = (a1e−b1xi
+ a2e−b2xi
) · i
7/33
Stan code
data {
int N;
vector[N] x;
vector[N] y;}
parameters {
vector[2] log_a;
ordered[2] log_b;
real<lower=0> sigma;}
transformed parameters {
vector<lower=0>[2] a;
vector<lower=0>[2] b;
a <- exp(log_a);
b <- exp(log_b);}
model {
vector[N] ypred;
ypred <- a[1]*exp(-b[1]*x) + a[2]*exp(-b[2]*x);
y ~ lognormal(log(ypred), sigma);
}
Simulate fake data in R
# Set up the true parameter values
a <- c(.8, 1)
b <- c(2, .1)
sigma <- .2
# Simulate data
x <- (1:1000)/100
N <- length(x)
ypred <- a[1]*exp(-b[1]*x) + a[2]*exp(-b[2]*x)
y <- ypred*exp(rnorm(N, 0, sigma))
9/33
Fit the model in Stan
Inference for Stan model: exponentials.
4 chains, each with iter=1000; warmup=500; thin=1;
post-warmup draws per chain=500, total post-warmup draws=2000.
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
a[1] 1.00 0.00 0.03 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.05 494 1
a[2] 0.70 0.00 0.08 0.56 0.65 0.69 0.75 0.87 620 1
b[1] 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 532 1
b[2] 1.71 0.02 0.34 1.15 1.48 1.67 1.90 2.49 498 1
sigma 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 952 1
10/33
Try again with new parameter values
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 9
a[1] 1.33e+00 0.54 0.77 0.00 1.28 1.77e+00 1.79e+00 1.82
a[2] 2.46e+294 Inf Inf 0.00 0.00 0.00e+00 1.77e+00 2.66e
b[1] 1.00e-01 0.04 0.06 0.00 0.10 1.30e-01 1.30e-01 1.40
b[2] 3.09e+305 Inf Inf 0.13 0.50 1.15e+109 4.77e+212 5.28e
sigma 2.00e-01 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 2.00e-01 2.00e-01 2.00
11/33
Informative prior distribution
log_a ~ normal(0, 1);
log_b ~ normal(0, 1);
12/33
Happy ending
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
a[1] 1.56 0.09 0.32 0.65 1.52 1.72 1.75 1.79 13 1.25
a[2] 0.32 0.08 0.28 0.06 0.14 0.22 0.37 1.13 13 1.20
b[1] 0.13 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 22 1.14
b[2] 1.94 0.20 2.29 0.14 0.22 1.26 3.00 7.34 127 1.05
sigma 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 656 1.00
13/33
The political impact of social penumbras
Andrew Gelman and Yotam Margalit
Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Columbia University, New York
8 Apr 2016
14/33
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act,
defining marriage as one man and one woman
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act,
defining marriage as one man and one woman
1999: voted for a measure prohibiting same-sex
couples from adopting children.
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act,
defining marriage as one man and one woman
1999: voted for a measure prohibiting same-sex
couples from adopting children.
2011: “openly hostile” record on gay rights led to
a mass protest of students at the University of
Michigan against Portman speaking at the
graduation ceremony
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act,
defining marriage as one man and one woman
1999: voted for a measure prohibiting same-sex
couples from adopting children.
2011: “openly hostile” record on gay rights led to
a mass protest of students at the University of
Michigan against Portman speaking at the
graduation ceremony
“Rob believes marriage is a sacred bond between
one man and one woman”—Portman spokesman
to Cleveland Plain Dealer at the time of the
protest
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
16/33
2013: “I’m announcing today a change of heart
[for] gay marriage. . . My son came to Jane, my
wife, and I, told us that he was gay, and that it
was not a choice, and that it’s just part of who
he is, and that’s who he’d been that way for as
long as he could remember.”
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
16/33
2013: “I’m announcing today a change of heart
[for] gay marriage. . . My son came to Jane, my
wife, and I, told us that he was gay, and that it
was not a choice, and that it’s just part of who
he is, and that’s who he’d been that way for as
long as he could remember.”
“I’ve come to the conclusion that . . . [marriage] is
something that we should allow people to do
. . . and to have the joy and stability of marriage
that I’ve had for over 26 years.”
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
16/33
2013: “I’m announcing today a change of heart
[for] gay marriage. . . My son came to Jane, my
wife, and I, told us that he was gay, and that it
was not a choice, and that it’s just part of who
he is, and that’s who he’d been that way for as
long as he could remember.”
“I’ve come to the conclusion that . . . [marriage] is
something that we should allow people to do
. . . and to have the joy and stability of marriage
that I’ve had for over 26 years.”
Portman also mentioned his consultation with
former Vice President Dick Cheney, whose own
daughter’s coming out: “forced him to re-think
the issue too, and over time, he changed his view
on it”
Sen. Rob
Portman
(R-Ohio)
16/33
Research questions
1. To what extent does familiarity with members of a certain
social group influence people’s views on public policies related
to that group?
17/33
Penumbra
18/33
Social penumbra
Size and the shape of the penumbra can relate to the political
salience and influence of a social group
19/33
Research questions
1. To what extent does familiarity with members of a certain
social group influence people’s views on public policies related
to that group?
2. To what extent does the social penumbra of a group—its
shape and size—matter for explaining public preferences on
key policies?
20/33
Penumbras and change in public opinion?
2004: Karl Rove puts gay marriage on the ballot in key states
to help mobilize mass support in favor of Bush
2012: Karl Rove criticizes the Democrats for “using the issue
of gay marriage for political gain”
21/33
Our data
Panel design
Two surveys administered by YouGov 12 months apart
3,000 respondents in wave 1; 2,106 re-interviewed in wave 2
Penumbra membership in 14 social groups and 8 names
Attitude questions on 12 related policies
Also GSS in 2006 and 2014
Active Military
q
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs NRA Member Abortion in Past 5 Yrs
Lost Job Last Year Muslim Gay/Lesbian Currently Unemployed
Mortgage Underwater No Health Insurance Care for Elder Gun Owner
Receive Govt Welfare Serious Health Problem
Group size (area of red circle) and penumbras (areas of black circles indicate close family, close family + close friends,
and close family + close friends + others known) compared to the population of American adults (light gray circle)
23/33
Walter
q
Rose
q
Bruce
q
Tina
q
Kyle
q
Emily
q
Jose
q
Maria
q
Walter+Rose+...+Emily
q
Jose + Maria
q
All 8 names
Number of people with each name (area of red circle) and penumbra (areas of black circle indicates number of people
who know at least one person with this name) compared to the population of American adults (light gray circle)
24/33
Know any Mortgage Underwater?
sd 9%
Know any Gun Owner?
sd 7%
Know any Gay/Lesbian?
sd 6%
Know any Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs?
sd 5%
Know any NRA Member?
sd 5%
Know any Active Military?
sd 5%
Know any Muslim?
sd 4%
Know any Receive Govt Welfare?
sd 4%
Know any No Health Insurance?
sd 4%
Know any Currently Unemployed?
sd 3%
Know any Lost Job Last Year?
sd 3%
Know any Care for Elder?
sd 2%
Know any Serious Health Problem?
sd 2%
Know any Abortion in Past 5 Yrs?
sd 1%
25/33
Are you conservative?
sd 5%
Do you attend church regularly?
sd 8%
Know any Rose?
sd 2%
Know any Emily?
sd 2%
Know any Walter?
sd 3%
Know any Bruce?
sd 3%
Know any Tina?
sd 3%
Know any Kyle?
sd 5%
Know any Maria?
sd 6%
Know any Jose?
sd 10%
Shades of blue: People in these states are more likely to know someone of that group
Shades of tan: Less likely to know someone of that group
26/33
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Active Military
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
qq
q
q
q
q
q
NRA Member
Family OtherFriends
012
q q q
q q
q
q q q
Abortion in Past 5 Yrs
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Lost Job Last Year
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Muslim
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Gay/Lesbian
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Currently Unemployed
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q
q
q
q q
q
Mortgage Underwater
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
No Health Insurance
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
qq
q
qq q
q
Care for Elder
Family OtherFriends
012345
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Gun Owner
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Receive Govt Welfare
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q q
q
Serious Health Problem
Average number of people known in each group, among Democrats (blue), Independents (purple), and Republicans (red)
27/33
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Active Military
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q q
q
q
q
q
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
NRA Member
Family OtherFriends
012
q q q
q q qq
q
q
Abortion in Past 5 Yrs
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Lost Job Last Year
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Muslim
Family OtherFriends
0123
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Gay/Lesbian
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Currently Unemployed
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q q
q
q
q
q
Mortgage Underwater
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q q
q
q
q
q
No Health Insurance
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q q
q
q
q
Care for Elder
Family OtherFriends
012345
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Gun Owner
Family OtherFriends
012
q q
q
q q
q
q
q
q
Receive Govt Welfare
Family OtherFriends
012
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Serious Health Problem
Average number of people known in each group, among low, middle, and high−income respondents
(indicated by thin, intermediate, and thick lines)
28/33
Is penumbra membership associated with group-relevant
attitudes?
Do you think the number of immigrants from foreign countries
who are permitted to come to the United States to live should
be increased, decreased, or left the same as it is now?
Do you agree or disagree: Homosexual couples should have the
right to marry one another.
Some are calling for the government to provide tax breaks for
family expenditures on care provision for elderly family
members. Others worry that such tax breaks would add to the
national debt. Do you support or oppose providing tax breaks
for care provision to the elderly?
More policy questions related to core groups
Would you support or oppose a law requiring a nationwide ban
on the sale of assault weapons?
Which comes closest to your point of view: As a general rule,
do you think the United States should be willing to use
military force around the world, or the United States should be
very reluctant to use military force?
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “It is
the responsibility of the federal government to make sure that
all Americans have healthcare coverage.”
Etc.
2.03.04.0
Active Military
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
MilitaryForce
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
AllowIllegalImmigrant
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
NRA Member
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
NOTWeaponBan
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Abortion in Past 5 Yrs
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
LegalAbortion
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Lost Job Last Year
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
UnemployedBenefits
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Muslim
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
NOTMuslimairportscreen
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Gay/Lesbian
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
HomesexualMarriage
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Currently Unemployed
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
UnemployedBenefits
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Mortgage Underwater
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
PreventForceclosure
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
No Health Insurance
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
GovtHealthcare
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Care for Elder
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
Taxbreak
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Gun Owner
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
NOTWeaponBan
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Receive Govt Welfare
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
PublicAssistance
0 1 2 3
2.03.04.0
Serious Health Problem
Penumbra score
Avgattitudeon
GovtHealthcare
0 1 2 3
31/33
Coefs predicting change in attitude,
given entrance into the penumbra
−0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Serious Health Problem
Receive Govt Welfare
Gun Owner
Care for Elder
No Health Insurance
Mortgage Underwater
Currently Unemployed
Gay/Lesbian
Muslim
Muslim
Muslim
Lost Job Last Year
Abortion in Past 5 Yrs
NRA Member
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs
Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs
Active Military
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
Small but nonzero effects
No effects with cross-predictions, reverse-time predictions
32/33
Summary
Social penumbras are a politically meaningful concept
Penumbra membership is associated with group-related policy
views.
Entering a penumbra can lead to attitude shifts
Penumbra’s shape might help explain speed and patterns of
change in public opinion

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

R Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal Dependence
R Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal DependenceR Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal Dependence
R Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal Dependence
Work-Bench
 
Reflection on the Data Science Profession in NYC
Reflection on the Data Science Profession in NYCReflection on the Data Science Profession in NYC
Reflection on the Data Science Profession in NYC
Work-Bench
 
The Feels
The FeelsThe Feels
The Feels
Work-Bench
 
Broom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data Frames
Broom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data FramesBroom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data Frames
Broom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data Frames
Work-Bench
 
Analyzing NYC Transit Data
Analyzing NYC Transit DataAnalyzing NYC Transit Data
Analyzing NYC Transit Data
Work-Bench
 
High-Performance Python
High-Performance PythonHigh-Performance Python
High-Performance Python
Work-Bench
 
Using R at NYT Graphics
Using R at NYT GraphicsUsing R at NYT Graphics
Using R at NYT Graphics
Work-Bench
 
R for Everything
R for EverythingR for Everything
R for Everything
Work-Bench
 
What We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics Pipeline
What We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics PipelineWhat We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics Pipeline
What We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics Pipeline
Work-Bench
 
Building Scalable Prediction Services in R
Building Scalable Prediction Services in RBuilding Scalable Prediction Services in R
Building Scalable Prediction Services in R
Work-Bench
 
Improving Data Interoperability for Python and R
Improving Data Interoperability for Python and RImproving Data Interoperability for Python and R
Improving Data Interoperability for Python and R
Work-Bench
 
A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...
A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...
A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...
Work-Bench
 
Iterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament edition
Iterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament editionIterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament edition
Iterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament edition
Work-Bench
 
Thinking Small About Big Data
Thinking Small About Big DataThinking Small About Big Data
Thinking Small About Big Data
Work-Bench
 

Viewers also liked (14)

R Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal Dependence
R Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal DependenceR Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal Dependence
R Packages for Time-Varying Networks and Extremal Dependence
 
Reflection on the Data Science Profession in NYC
Reflection on the Data Science Profession in NYCReflection on the Data Science Profession in NYC
Reflection on the Data Science Profession in NYC
 
The Feels
The FeelsThe Feels
The Feels
 
Broom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data Frames
Broom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data FramesBroom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data Frames
Broom: Converting Statistical Models to Tidy Data Frames
 
Analyzing NYC Transit Data
Analyzing NYC Transit DataAnalyzing NYC Transit Data
Analyzing NYC Transit Data
 
High-Performance Python
High-Performance PythonHigh-Performance Python
High-Performance Python
 
Using R at NYT Graphics
Using R at NYT GraphicsUsing R at NYT Graphics
Using R at NYT Graphics
 
R for Everything
R for EverythingR for Everything
R for Everything
 
What We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics Pipeline
What We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics PipelineWhat We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics Pipeline
What We Learned Building an R-Python Hybrid Predictive Analytics Pipeline
 
Building Scalable Prediction Services in R
Building Scalable Prediction Services in RBuilding Scalable Prediction Services in R
Building Scalable Prediction Services in R
 
Improving Data Interoperability for Python and R
Improving Data Interoperability for Python and RImproving Data Interoperability for Python and R
Improving Data Interoperability for Python and R
 
A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...
A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...
A Statistician Walks into a Tech Company: R at a Rapidly Scaling Healthcare S...
 
Iterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament edition
Iterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament editionIterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament edition
Iterating over statistical models: NCAA tournament edition
 
Thinking Small About Big Data
Thinking Small About Big DataThinking Small About Big Data
Thinking Small About Big Data
 

Similar to The Political Impact of Social Penumbras

The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?
Ipsos UK
 
2012 02-us-poll-charts-1
2012 02-us-poll-charts-12012 02-us-poll-charts-1
2012 02-us-poll-charts-1
The Israel Project
 
9/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 2
9/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 29/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 2
9/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 2
APA Florida
 
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
Magellan Strategies
 
Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514
Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514
Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514
Magellan Strategies
 
The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...
The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...
The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...
Burson-Marsteller
 
ECO491 Group Project
ECO491 Group ProjectECO491 Group Project
ECO491 Group Project
trijay1802
 
102609 Gov Team Elections 50m
102609 Gov Team Elections 50m102609 Gov Team Elections 50m
102609 Gov Team Elections 50m
Monta Vista High School
 
Adrian sba
Adrian sbaAdrian sba
Adrian sba
YC Jay
 
Linkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behavior
Linkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behaviorLinkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behavior
Linkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behavior
Center for Innovative Public Health Research
 
Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14
Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14
Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14
Magellan Strategies
 
Mainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting
Mainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian BroadcastingMainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting
Mainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting
friendscb
 
California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
Magellan Strategies
 
Micro-targeting and internet tested mail
Micro-targeting and internet tested mailMicro-targeting and internet tested mail
Micro-targeting and internet tested mail
efeitoobama
 
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
Magellan Strategies
 
California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
Magellan Strategies
 
Welcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on Immigration
Welcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on ImmigrationWelcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on Immigration
Welcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on Immigration
City of Dayton
 
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy Giving
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy GivingThe Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy Giving
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy Giving
Russell James
 
Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...
Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...
Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...
Magellan Strategies
 
TIP National Voter Survey On Israel
TIP National Voter Survey On IsraelTIP National Voter Survey On Israel
TIP National Voter Survey On Israel
The Israel Project
 

Similar to The Political Impact of Social Penumbras (20)

The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?
 
2012 02-us-poll-charts-1
2012 02-us-poll-charts-12012 02-us-poll-charts-1
2012 02-us-poll-charts-1
 
9/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 2
9/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 29/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 2
9/9 FRI 9:30 | Planning & the LGBT Community in Florida 2
 
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
 
Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514
Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514
Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514
 
The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...
The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...
The 2013 Atlantic/Aspen Institute Annual American Values Survey: One Nation, ...
 
ECO491 Group Project
ECO491 Group ProjectECO491 Group Project
ECO491 Group Project
 
102609 Gov Team Elections 50m
102609 Gov Team Elections 50m102609 Gov Team Elections 50m
102609 Gov Team Elections 50m
 
Adrian sba
Adrian sbaAdrian sba
Adrian sba
 
Linkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behavior
Linkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behaviorLinkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behavior
Linkages between violence online and youth seriously violent behavior
 
Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14
Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14
Magellan Strategies Louisiana Survey Likely 2014 Voters 3/24/14
 
Mainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting
Mainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian BroadcastingMainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting
Mainstreet Report for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting
 
California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 10 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
 
Micro-targeting and internet tested mail
Micro-targeting and internet tested mailMicro-targeting and internet tested mail
Micro-targeting and internet tested mail
 
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014
 
California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...
 
Welcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on Immigration
Welcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on ImmigrationWelcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on Immigration
Welcome Dayton STUDY: Community Views on Immigration
 
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy Giving
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy GivingThe Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy Giving
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy Giving
 
Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...
Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...
Colorado Congressional District 6 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strate...
 
TIP National Voter Survey On Israel
TIP National Voter Survey On IsraelTIP National Voter Survey On Israel
TIP National Voter Survey On Israel
 

More from Work-Bench

2017 Enterprise Almanac
2017 Enterprise Almanac2017 Enterprise Almanac
2017 Enterprise Almanac
Work-Bench
 
AI to Enable Next Generation of People Managers
AI to Enable Next Generation of People ManagersAI to Enable Next Generation of People Managers
AI to Enable Next Generation of People Managers
Work-Bench
 
Startup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview Process
Startup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview ProcessStartup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview Process
Startup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview Process
Work-Bench
 
Cloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions Compared
Cloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions ComparedCloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions Compared
Cloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions Compared
Work-Bench
 
Building a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDB
Building a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDBBuilding a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDB
Building a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDB
Work-Bench
 
How to Market Your Startup to the Enterprise
How to Market Your Startup to the EnterpriseHow to Market Your Startup to the Enterprise
How to Market Your Startup to the Enterprise
Work-Bench
 
Marketing & Design for the Enterprise
Marketing & Design for the EnterpriseMarketing & Design for the Enterprise
Marketing & Design for the Enterprise
Work-Bench
 
Playing the Marketing Long Game
Playing the Marketing Long GamePlaying the Marketing Long Game
Playing the Marketing Long Game
Work-Bench
 

More from Work-Bench (8)

2017 Enterprise Almanac
2017 Enterprise Almanac2017 Enterprise Almanac
2017 Enterprise Almanac
 
AI to Enable Next Generation of People Managers
AI to Enable Next Generation of People ManagersAI to Enable Next Generation of People Managers
AI to Enable Next Generation of People Managers
 
Startup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview Process
Startup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview ProcessStartup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview Process
Startup Recruiting Workbook: Sourcing and Interview Process
 
Cloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions Compared
Cloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions ComparedCloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions Compared
Cloud Native Infrastructure Management Solutions Compared
 
Building a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDB
Building a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDBBuilding a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDB
Building a Demand Generation Machine at MongoDB
 
How to Market Your Startup to the Enterprise
How to Market Your Startup to the EnterpriseHow to Market Your Startup to the Enterprise
How to Market Your Startup to the Enterprise
 
Marketing & Design for the Enterprise
Marketing & Design for the EnterpriseMarketing & Design for the Enterprise
Marketing & Design for the Enterprise
 
Playing the Marketing Long Game
Playing the Marketing Long GamePlaying the Marketing Long Game
Playing the Marketing Long Game
 

Recently uploaded

reading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdf
reading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdfreading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdf
reading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdf
perranet1
 
Namma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdf
Namma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdfNamma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdf
Namma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdf
22ad0301
 
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
ytypuem
 
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call GirlCall Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
sapna sharmap11
 
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
Vietnam Cotton & Spinning Association
 
一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理
ugydym
 
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call GirlCall Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
sapna sharmap11
 
A gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented Generation
A gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented GenerationA gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented Generation
A gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented Generation
dataschool1
 
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
eoxhsaa
 
一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理
zoykygu
 
一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理
keesa2
 
Senior Engineering Sample EM DOE - Sheet1.pdf
Senior Engineering Sample EM DOE  - Sheet1.pdfSenior Engineering Sample EM DOE  - Sheet1.pdf
Senior Engineering Sample EM DOE - Sheet1.pdf
Vineet
 
Digital Marketing Performance Marketing Sample .pdf
Digital Marketing Performance Marketing  Sample .pdfDigital Marketing Performance Marketing  Sample .pdf
Digital Marketing Performance Marketing Sample .pdf
Vineet
 
Data Scientist Machine Learning Profiles .pdf
Data Scientist Machine Learning  Profiles .pdfData Scientist Machine Learning  Profiles .pdf
Data Scientist Machine Learning Profiles .pdf
Vineet
 
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
Rebecca Bilbro
 
一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理
aguty
 
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
GeorgiiSteshenko
 
一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理
agdhot
 
Template xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptx
Template xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptxTemplate xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptx
Template xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptx
TeukuEriSyahputra
 
saps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdf
saps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdfsaps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdf
saps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdf
newdirectionconsulta
 

Recently uploaded (20)

reading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdf
reading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdfreading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdf
reading_sample_sap_press_operational_data_provisioning_with_sap_bw4hana (1).pdf
 
Namma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdf
Namma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdfNamma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdf
Namma-Kalvi-11th-Physics-Study-Material-Unit-1-EM-221086.pdf
 
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
 
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call GirlCall Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
 
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
 
一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版南昆士兰大学毕业证如何办理
 
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call GirlCall Girls Hyderabad  (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad  Call Girl
Call Girls Hyderabad (india) ☎️ +91-7426014248 Hyderabad Call Girl
 
A gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented Generation
A gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented GenerationA gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented Generation
A gentle exploration of Retrieval Augmented Generation
 
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
 
一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(heriotwatt学位证书)英国赫瑞瓦特大学毕业证如何办理
 
一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版悉尼大学毕业证如何办理
 
Senior Engineering Sample EM DOE - Sheet1.pdf
Senior Engineering Sample EM DOE  - Sheet1.pdfSenior Engineering Sample EM DOE  - Sheet1.pdf
Senior Engineering Sample EM DOE - Sheet1.pdf
 
Digital Marketing Performance Marketing Sample .pdf
Digital Marketing Performance Marketing  Sample .pdfDigital Marketing Performance Marketing  Sample .pdf
Digital Marketing Performance Marketing Sample .pdf
 
Data Scientist Machine Learning Profiles .pdf
Data Scientist Machine Learning  Profiles .pdfData Scientist Machine Learning  Profiles .pdf
Data Scientist Machine Learning Profiles .pdf
 
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
 
一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版澳洲西澳大学毕业证(uwa毕业证书)如何办理
 
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
 
一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证(mcgill毕业证书)如何办理
 
Template xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptx
Template xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptxTemplate xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptx
Template xxxxxxxx ssssssssssss Sertifikat.pptx
 
saps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdf
saps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdfsaps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdf
saps4hanaandsapanalyticswheretodowhat1565272000538.pdf
 

The Political Impact of Social Penumbras

  • 1. q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0 5 10 15 20 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 Data on putts in pro golf Distance from hole (feet) Probabilityofsuccess 1346/1443 577/694 337/455 208/353 149/272 136/256 111/240 69/217 67/200 75/237 52/202 46/192 54/174 28/167 27/201 31/195 33/191 20/147 24/152 1/33
  • 2. q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0 5 10 15 20 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 What's the probability of making a golf putt? Distance from hole (feet) Probabilityofsuccess Logistic regression, a = 2.2, b = −0.3 2/33
  • 4. Stan code data { int J; int n[J]; real x[J]; int y[J]; real r; real R; } parameters { real<lower=0> sigma; } model { real p[J]; for (j in 1:J) p[j] <- 2*Phi(asin((R-r)/x[j]) / sigma) - 1; y ~ binomial(n, p); }
  • 5. q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0 5 10 15 20 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 What's the probability of making a golf putt? Distance from hole (feet) Probabilityofsuccess Geometry−based model, sigma = 1.5 5/33
  • 6. q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 0 5 10 15 20 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 Two models fit to the golf putting data Distance from hole (feet) Probabilityofsuccess Logistic regression, a = 2.2, b = −0.3 Geometry−based model, sigma = 1.5 6/33
  • 7. A tougher model 1. Sum of declining exponentials: y = a1e−b1x + a2e−b2x 2. Statistical version: yi = (a1e−b1xi + a2e−b2xi ) · i 7/33
  • 8. Stan code data { int N; vector[N] x; vector[N] y;} parameters { vector[2] log_a; ordered[2] log_b; real<lower=0> sigma;} transformed parameters { vector<lower=0>[2] a; vector<lower=0>[2] b; a <- exp(log_a); b <- exp(log_b);} model { vector[N] ypred; ypred <- a[1]*exp(-b[1]*x) + a[2]*exp(-b[2]*x); y ~ lognormal(log(ypred), sigma); }
  • 9. Simulate fake data in R # Set up the true parameter values a <- c(.8, 1) b <- c(2, .1) sigma <- .2 # Simulate data x <- (1:1000)/100 N <- length(x) ypred <- a[1]*exp(-b[1]*x) + a[2]*exp(-b[2]*x) y <- ypred*exp(rnorm(N, 0, sigma)) 9/33
  • 10. Fit the model in Stan Inference for Stan model: exponentials. 4 chains, each with iter=1000; warmup=500; thin=1; post-warmup draws per chain=500, total post-warmup draws=2000. mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% n_eff Rhat a[1] 1.00 0.00 0.03 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.05 494 1 a[2] 0.70 0.00 0.08 0.56 0.65 0.69 0.75 0.87 620 1 b[1] 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 532 1 b[2] 1.71 0.02 0.34 1.15 1.48 1.67 1.90 2.49 498 1 sigma 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 952 1 10/33
  • 11. Try again with new parameter values mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 9 a[1] 1.33e+00 0.54 0.77 0.00 1.28 1.77e+00 1.79e+00 1.82 a[2] 2.46e+294 Inf Inf 0.00 0.00 0.00e+00 1.77e+00 2.66e b[1] 1.00e-01 0.04 0.06 0.00 0.10 1.30e-01 1.30e-01 1.40 b[2] 3.09e+305 Inf Inf 0.13 0.50 1.15e+109 4.77e+212 5.28e sigma 2.00e-01 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 2.00e-01 2.00e-01 2.00 11/33
  • 12. Informative prior distribution log_a ~ normal(0, 1); log_b ~ normal(0, 1); 12/33
  • 13. Happy ending mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% n_eff Rhat a[1] 1.56 0.09 0.32 0.65 1.52 1.72 1.75 1.79 13 1.25 a[2] 0.32 0.08 0.28 0.06 0.14 0.22 0.37 1.13 13 1.20 b[1] 0.13 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 22 1.14 b[2] 1.94 0.20 2.29 0.14 0.22 1.26 3.00 7.34 127 1.05 sigma 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 656 1.00 13/33
  • 14. The political impact of social penumbras Andrew Gelman and Yotam Margalit Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science Columbia University, New York 8 Apr 2016 14/33
  • 15.
  • 17. 1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act, defining marriage as one man and one woman Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio)
  • 18. 1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act, defining marriage as one man and one woman 1999: voted for a measure prohibiting same-sex couples from adopting children. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio)
  • 19. 1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act, defining marriage as one man and one woman 1999: voted for a measure prohibiting same-sex couples from adopting children. 2011: “openly hostile” record on gay rights led to a mass protest of students at the University of Michigan against Portman speaking at the graduation ceremony Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio)
  • 20. 1996: co-sponsored the Defense of Marriage Act, defining marriage as one man and one woman 1999: voted for a measure prohibiting same-sex couples from adopting children. 2011: “openly hostile” record on gay rights led to a mass protest of students at the University of Michigan against Portman speaking at the graduation ceremony “Rob believes marriage is a sacred bond between one man and one woman”—Portman spokesman to Cleveland Plain Dealer at the time of the protest Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio)
  • 22. 2013: “I’m announcing today a change of heart [for] gay marriage. . . My son came to Jane, my wife, and I, told us that he was gay, and that it was not a choice, and that it’s just part of who he is, and that’s who he’d been that way for as long as he could remember.” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) 16/33
  • 23. 2013: “I’m announcing today a change of heart [for] gay marriage. . . My son came to Jane, my wife, and I, told us that he was gay, and that it was not a choice, and that it’s just part of who he is, and that’s who he’d been that way for as long as he could remember.” “I’ve come to the conclusion that . . . [marriage] is something that we should allow people to do . . . and to have the joy and stability of marriage that I’ve had for over 26 years.” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) 16/33
  • 24. 2013: “I’m announcing today a change of heart [for] gay marriage. . . My son came to Jane, my wife, and I, told us that he was gay, and that it was not a choice, and that it’s just part of who he is, and that’s who he’d been that way for as long as he could remember.” “I’ve come to the conclusion that . . . [marriage] is something that we should allow people to do . . . and to have the joy and stability of marriage that I’ve had for over 26 years.” Portman also mentioned his consultation with former Vice President Dick Cheney, whose own daughter’s coming out: “forced him to re-think the issue too, and over time, he changed his view on it” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) 16/33
  • 25. Research questions 1. To what extent does familiarity with members of a certain social group influence people’s views on public policies related to that group? 17/33
  • 27. Social penumbra Size and the shape of the penumbra can relate to the political salience and influence of a social group 19/33
  • 28. Research questions 1. To what extent does familiarity with members of a certain social group influence people’s views on public policies related to that group? 2. To what extent does the social penumbra of a group—its shape and size—matter for explaining public preferences on key policies? 20/33
  • 29. Penumbras and change in public opinion? 2004: Karl Rove puts gay marriage on the ballot in key states to help mobilize mass support in favor of Bush 2012: Karl Rove criticizes the Democrats for “using the issue of gay marriage for political gain” 21/33
  • 30. Our data Panel design Two surveys administered by YouGov 12 months apart 3,000 respondents in wave 1; 2,106 re-interviewed in wave 2 Penumbra membership in 14 social groups and 8 names Attitude questions on 12 related policies Also GSS in 2006 and 2014
  • 31. Active Military q Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs NRA Member Abortion in Past 5 Yrs Lost Job Last Year Muslim Gay/Lesbian Currently Unemployed Mortgage Underwater No Health Insurance Care for Elder Gun Owner Receive Govt Welfare Serious Health Problem Group size (area of red circle) and penumbras (areas of black circles indicate close family, close family + close friends, and close family + close friends + others known) compared to the population of American adults (light gray circle) 23/33
  • 32. Walter q Rose q Bruce q Tina q Kyle q Emily q Jose q Maria q Walter+Rose+...+Emily q Jose + Maria q All 8 names Number of people with each name (area of red circle) and penumbra (areas of black circle indicates number of people who know at least one person with this name) compared to the population of American adults (light gray circle) 24/33
  • 33. Know any Mortgage Underwater? sd 9% Know any Gun Owner? sd 7% Know any Gay/Lesbian? sd 6% Know any Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs? sd 5% Know any NRA Member? sd 5% Know any Active Military? sd 5% Know any Muslim? sd 4% Know any Receive Govt Welfare? sd 4% Know any No Health Insurance? sd 4% Know any Currently Unemployed? sd 3% Know any Lost Job Last Year? sd 3% Know any Care for Elder? sd 2% Know any Serious Health Problem? sd 2% Know any Abortion in Past 5 Yrs? sd 1% 25/33
  • 34. Are you conservative? sd 5% Do you attend church regularly? sd 8% Know any Rose? sd 2% Know any Emily? sd 2% Know any Walter? sd 3% Know any Bruce? sd 3% Know any Tina? sd 3% Know any Kyle? sd 5% Know any Maria? sd 6% Know any Jose? sd 10% Shades of blue: People in these states are more likely to know someone of that group Shades of tan: Less likely to know someone of that group 26/33
  • 35. Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Active Military Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs Family OtherFriends 012 q q qq q q q q q NRA Member Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Abortion in Past 5 Yrs Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Lost Job Last Year Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Muslim Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Gay/Lesbian Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Currently Unemployed Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Mortgage Underwater Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q No Health Insurance Family OtherFriends 012 q q qq q qq q q Care for Elder Family OtherFriends 012345 q q q q q q q q q Gun Owner Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Receive Govt Welfare Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Serious Health Problem Average number of people known in each group, among Democrats (blue), Independents (purple), and Republicans (red) 27/33
  • 36. Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Active Military Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q NRA Member Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q qq q q Abortion in Past 5 Yrs Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Lost Job Last Year Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Muslim Family OtherFriends 0123 q q q q q q q q q Gay/Lesbian Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Currently Unemployed Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Mortgage Underwater Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q No Health Insurance Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Care for Elder Family OtherFriends 012345 q q q q q q q q q Gun Owner Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Receive Govt Welfare Family OtherFriends 012 q q q q q q q q q Serious Health Problem Average number of people known in each group, among low, middle, and high−income respondents (indicated by thin, intermediate, and thick lines) 28/33
  • 37. Is penumbra membership associated with group-relevant attitudes? Do you think the number of immigrants from foreign countries who are permitted to come to the United States to live should be increased, decreased, or left the same as it is now? Do you agree or disagree: Homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another. Some are calling for the government to provide tax breaks for family expenditures on care provision for elderly family members. Others worry that such tax breaks would add to the national debt. Do you support or oppose providing tax breaks for care provision to the elderly?
  • 38. More policy questions related to core groups Would you support or oppose a law requiring a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons? Which comes closest to your point of view: As a general rule, do you think the United States should be willing to use military force around the world, or the United States should be very reluctant to use military force? Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “It is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure that all Americans have healthcare coverage.” Etc.
  • 39. 2.03.04.0 Active Military Penumbra score Avgattitudeon MilitaryForce 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs Penumbra score Avgattitudeon AllowIllegalImmigrant 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 NRA Member Penumbra score Avgattitudeon NOTWeaponBan 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Abortion in Past 5 Yrs Penumbra score Avgattitudeon LegalAbortion 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Lost Job Last Year Penumbra score Avgattitudeon UnemployedBenefits 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Muslim Penumbra score Avgattitudeon NOTMuslimairportscreen 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Gay/Lesbian Penumbra score Avgattitudeon HomesexualMarriage 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Currently Unemployed Penumbra score Avgattitudeon UnemployedBenefits 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Mortgage Underwater Penumbra score Avgattitudeon PreventForceclosure 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 No Health Insurance Penumbra score Avgattitudeon GovtHealthcare 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Care for Elder Penumbra score Avgattitudeon Taxbreak 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Gun Owner Penumbra score Avgattitudeon NOTWeaponBan 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Receive Govt Welfare Penumbra score Avgattitudeon PublicAssistance 0 1 2 3 2.03.04.0 Serious Health Problem Penumbra score Avgattitudeon GovtHealthcare 0 1 2 3 31/33
  • 40. Coefs predicting change in attitude, given entrance into the penumbra −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Serious Health Problem Receive Govt Welfare Gun Owner Care for Elder No Health Insurance Mortgage Underwater Currently Unemployed Gay/Lesbian Muslim Muslim Muslim Lost Job Last Year Abortion in Past 5 Yrs NRA Member Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs Immigrant in Past 5 Yrs Active Military q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q Small but nonzero effects No effects with cross-predictions, reverse-time predictions 32/33
  • 41. Summary Social penumbras are a politically meaningful concept Penumbra membership is associated with group-related policy views. Entering a penumbra can lead to attitude shifts Penumbra’s shape might help explain speed and patterns of change in public opinion