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25.04.2018. jurisozolins@me.com
…. atjaunojamai enerģijai jāiemācās strādāt
tirgus apstākļos .... (?!)
The new market design also contributes to the EU's goal of
being the world leader in energy production from renewable
energy sources by allowing more flexibility to accommodate
an increasing share of renewable energy in the grid. The shift
to renewables and increased electrification is crucial to
achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The new electricity
market design will also contribute to the creation of jobs and
growth, and attract investments.
Short –term markets to fully integrate variable renewable
sources
NordPoolSpot
Elspot Flows MWh
25.04.2019
All day
1,29 1,57
0,07
2,93
31,2
12,5
53,6
15,8
1,1 114,3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
LV instoled capacity GW
NordPool area instoled capacity GW
27%
11%
47%
14%
1,0%
Capacities Nordpool Area
41%
7%
1%
9%
6%
12%
2%
DK EE LV LT FI SE NO
Ar vēja ģenerēto enerģiju nosegtā daļa nacionālajā
elektrības patēriņā 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Latvia hourly €/MWh 25.04.2019.
100%
72%
6%
10%
-3%
20%
Baltic
consum
Baltic prod From FI From SE To PL From RUS
Elektrības tirdzniecības rezultāts Baltijas tirdzniecības
apgabalā NordPoolSpot Day-ahead 2018
JO Jan-19
Source: NordPool
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Baltics generation GWh/month
Of which Fossil Oil shale Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation National electrical consumption
JO 2019
Source: ENTSO-E
CO2 EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE CHART OPTIONS
CO2 EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE CHART
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18
LV GWh/month
Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation
Solar net generation National electrical consumption
JO 2019
Source: ENTSO-E
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
RES generation, Baltics GWh/month
Wind net generation Solar net generation Of which Biomass
Of which Biogas Renewable Waste net generation Renewable net generation
Renewable Hydro net generation
JO 2019
Source: ENTSO-E
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Gas , RES and Hydro
Wind net generation Solar net generation Of which Fossil Gas
Renewable net generation Renewable Hydro net generation
JO 2019
Source: ENTSO-E
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Baltic RES -E , promoted GWh per month
EE RES LT RES LV RES
Juris Ozolins 28.11.2017
Source: ENTSO -E
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
Wind GWh
Juris Ozolins 28.11.2017
Source: ENTSO -E
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18
Baltic wind GWh/m 2016-208
EE Wind net generation LT Wind net generation LV Wind net generation
Juris Ozolins Apr-2019
Source: ENTSO-E
1847
3628
394
EE Wind net generation LT Wind net generation LV Wind net generation
Wind production GWh 2016-2018
Juris Ozolins Apr-2019
Source: ENTSO-E
27
56
74 79 89 88
112 104
87
133
136 137
135
121
123
58
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Atbalsts virs tirgus cenas milj.€
Visi AER (RES) Fosil( gāzes koģenrācija un sistēmas jaudas)
J.Ozolins Mar-2019
Source: EPT
306
181
69
49
296
58
575
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Biogāze Biomasa HES <2 MW Vējš CHP < 4 MW CHP > 4MW CHP >100
MW
RES 23 MW
2011-2018 milj.EUR
J.Ozolins Mar-2019
Source: EPT
63
82 97 103 104 104 103 70
736
736
976 976 976 976 976 986
957
1034
1313 1356 1366 1375 1393 1363
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MW
RES 23 MW
CHP >100 MW
CHP > 4MW
CHP < 4 MW
Vējš
HES <2 MW
Biomasa
Biogāze
Totāli
Juris Ozolins Mar-2019
Source : EPT
Ar atbalstu ievestās jaudās MWel
0
24
13 14 9 11
24
54
42
17 11 12 13
245
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
201…
Instilētās AER ģenerācijas jaudas MW/gadā un darbā 2019
Bez Daugavas HES kaskādes
Juris Ozolins Mar-2019
Source : EPT
In onshore wind, turbine prices have dropped steeply. Since
December 2016, they are down 17% according to the 2018
BNEF Wind Turbine Price Index (web | terminal). We forecast
a temporary stabilization at just below $0.8 million per MW in
2019. Despite this, the year will be a moment of truth for
onshore wind turbine makers and their suppliers.
https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/index.aspx?lat=54.783&lon=14.121&wfid=DE46
Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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2 juris ozolins vai_vejam_ir_vieta_elektroenergijas_tirgu

  • 2. …. atjaunojamai enerģijai jāiemācās strādāt tirgus apstākļos .... (?!) The new market design also contributes to the EU's goal of being the world leader in energy production from renewable energy sources by allowing more flexibility to accommodate an increasing share of renewable energy in the grid. The shift to renewables and increased electrification is crucial to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The new electricity market design will also contribute to the creation of jobs and growth, and attract investments. Short –term markets to fully integrate variable renewable sources
  • 4. 1,29 1,57 0,07 2,93 31,2 12,5 53,6 15,8 1,1 114,3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 LV instoled capacity GW NordPool area instoled capacity GW 27% 11% 47% 14% 1,0% Capacities Nordpool Area
  • 5. 41% 7% 1% 9% 6% 12% 2% DK EE LV LT FI SE NO Ar vēja ģenerēto enerģiju nosegtā daļa nacionālajā elektrības patēriņā 2018
  • 6. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Latvia hourly €/MWh 25.04.2019.
  • 7. 100% 72% 6% 10% -3% 20% Baltic consum Baltic prod From FI From SE To PL From RUS Elektrības tirdzniecības rezultāts Baltijas tirdzniecības apgabalā NordPoolSpot Day-ahead 2018 JO Jan-19 Source: NordPool
  • 8. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Baltics generation GWh/month Of which Fossil Oil shale Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation National electrical consumption JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  • 9. CO2 EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE CHART OPTIONS CO2 EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE CHART
  • 10. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 LV GWh/month Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation Solar net generation National electrical consumption JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  • 11. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 RES generation, Baltics GWh/month Wind net generation Solar net generation Of which Biomass Of which Biogas Renewable Waste net generation Renewable net generation Renewable Hydro net generation JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  • 12. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Gas , RES and Hydro Wind net generation Solar net generation Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation Renewable Hydro net generation JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  • 13. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Baltic RES -E , promoted GWh per month EE RES LT RES LV RES Juris Ozolins 28.11.2017 Source: ENTSO -E
  • 14. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Wind GWh Juris Ozolins 28.11.2017 Source: ENTSO -E
  • 15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Baltic wind GWh/m 2016-208 EE Wind net generation LT Wind net generation LV Wind net generation Juris Ozolins Apr-2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  • 16. 1847 3628 394 EE Wind net generation LT Wind net generation LV Wind net generation Wind production GWh 2016-2018 Juris Ozolins Apr-2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  • 17. 27 56 74 79 89 88 112 104 87 133 136 137 135 121 123 58 50 100 150 200 250 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Atbalsts virs tirgus cenas milj.€ Visi AER (RES) Fosil( gāzes koģenrācija un sistēmas jaudas) J.Ozolins Mar-2019 Source: EPT
  • 18. 306 181 69 49 296 58 575 25 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Biogāze Biomasa HES <2 MW Vējš CHP < 4 MW CHP > 4MW CHP >100 MW RES 23 MW 2011-2018 milj.EUR J.Ozolins Mar-2019 Source: EPT
  • 19. 63 82 97 103 104 104 103 70 736 736 976 976 976 976 976 986 957 1034 1313 1356 1366 1375 1393 1363 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MW RES 23 MW CHP >100 MW CHP > 4MW CHP < 4 MW Vējš HES <2 MW Biomasa Biogāze Totāli Juris Ozolins Mar-2019 Source : EPT Ar atbalstu ievestās jaudās MWel
  • 20. 0 24 13 14 9 11 24 54 42 17 11 12 13 245 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201… Instilētās AER ģenerācijas jaudas MW/gadā un darbā 2019 Bez Daugavas HES kaskādes Juris Ozolins Mar-2019 Source : EPT
  • 21. In onshore wind, turbine prices have dropped steeply. Since December 2016, they are down 17% according to the 2018 BNEF Wind Turbine Price Index (web | terminal). We forecast a temporary stabilization at just below $0.8 million per MW in 2019. Despite this, the year will be a moment of truth for onshore wind turbine makers and their suppliers. https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/index.aspx?lat=54.783&lon=14.121&wfid=DE46 Bloomberg New Energy Finance