01. Van Acker Roland Berger

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The best suited powertrain technology for cars should be chosen depending on miles driven per year and type of usage (more or less highway and urban). The ideal powertrain solution is only for a certain set of driving style and usage a gasoline/electric hybrid powertrain. For others a straight diesel powertrain, a gasoline powertrain or a diesle/electric powertrain are the best solutions.

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01. Van Acker Roland Berger

  1. 1. Business opportunities because the solution is more than a hybrid Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 1
  2. 2. Renewable energy sources have become a must World fossil fuel energy reserves – 2008 Reserves 39 61 145 80 (years at current production level) Oil Natural Gas Coal Fossil Fuels Weighted Average Source: BP report, Roland Berger analysis 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 2
  3. 3. Gas prices are expected to remain high Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel) USD/bl 135.00 Barclays 120.00 September 2007 WTI crude: USD 80/bbl 105 00 105.00 CERA 2 Goldman Sachs 90.00 Merril Lynch Russia EIA Mexico 75.00 Deutsche Bank CERA 1 Saudi Arabia CERA 3 60.00 45.00 IEA forecast (WEO 2006) EIA forecast (IEO 2007) 30.00 15.00 0.00 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry of Finance of selected countries, MEES, Samba 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 3
  4. 4. Several polluters should be considered in today's discussion Source of global CO2 emissions 2007 Global CO2 emissions 2007 (%) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (%) Total: 800 Gt/year Total: 28 Gt/year 25.0% 25 0% 23.0% Soil 19.0% 27 Vegetation 15.0% 27 Anthropogenic 3.5 CO2 emissions (%) 6.0% 5.5% Combustion <1 3.0% of biomass 2.0% 1.5% 41.5 Power Domestic Industry Comb- Trucks Pass- Air traffic Other Ships on Oceans plants fuel and ustion of enger traffic open sea small biomass cars consu- mers In Europe: Road transport ~ 20%, passenger cars ~ 12% Source: VDI, EU 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 4
  5. 5. Policies in all regions are focused on reducing emissions (g CO2/km) USA Canada Australia California China EU Japan Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 5
  6. 6. Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions CO2 savings of hybrid concepts Potential CO2 savings (%) Full hybrid Mild hybrid Micro hybrid New develop- ments 150 Installed electrical power Functions (kW) • E-Recuperation • E-Boost • Electric driving (limited) • E-Recuperation • E-Boost • Start-Stop • Start-Stop • E-Recuperation • Start-Stop Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 6
  7. 7. Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions for higher-weight vehicles CO2 emission1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight Diesel-Hybrid as full hybrid Diesel- hybrid forecast based on cost-benefit assumptions 1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC Source: IAV 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 7
  8. 8. A full hybrid vehicle currently costs about USD 6,000 more than a non-hybrid Cost – CO2 impact ratio hybrid systems 2006 Potential CO2 savings2) (g/km) Full hybrid Mild hybrid Micro hybrid Cost per vehicle (USD '000) 1) ICE: Internal combustion engine , 2) Medium size vehicle (e.g. VW Golf) Source: Ricardo, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 8
  9. 9. To reduce CO2 emissions focus should be on reduction of road resistance Energy transformation of today's vehicles in NEDC Comments Fuel - 100% Cooling Exhau • Direct energy loss in combustion st gas system – 45.5% – Mechanical – 31.5% engines accounts for about 68% 23.0% Gearbox – 1.6% % of total losses Accessorie Heat loss to radiator Oil pump – 0.5% • Losses from disposal of s – 4.1% – 18.7% Charging – 1.9% Water pump Convection and – 0.3% Power steering energy/heat of the engine radiation – 3.2% – 1.9% through cooling system (2/3) and Warm up Residual heat 26.8% Alternator exhaust gas (1/3) Road – 0.6% at resistance end of test – 23.6% – 25.8% • Out of 32% of mechanical energy Charge air – 1.1% Battery transformations only 8.5% are Electrical Intercooler – 0.8% Devices used for driving – 0.9% Thermal losses in Rolling exhaust pipes – 2.6% resistance • Energy losses from braking – 11.0% Thermal losses in catalyst – 2.6% account for only 7.7% of total Air resistance – 6.4% energy losses Exhaust gas Acceleration heat losses – (Braking energy losses 15.8% – 7.7%) – 8.5% Source: AVL, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 9
  10. 10. Most of the CO2 emission savings in hybrids result from better operating point adjustments Fuel consumption/CO2 analysis of Lexus Rx 400h full hybrid URBAN (Avg. 16 mph) INTERURBAN (Avg. 26 mph) FREEWAY (Avg. 76 mph) CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles] 100% 8% 640 4% 30% 640 640 100% 1% 1% 0% 98% 100% 4% 5% 20% 58% 320 320 71% 320 0 0 0 Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h mark stop ration operating mark stop ration operating mark stop ration operating vehicle point vehicle point vehicle point • Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight • Powertrain needs to be optimized as a system • Hybrids with e-boost function pave the way for downsizing Source: TU Darmstadt 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 10
  11. 11. If a car were a house (1/2) A × JT Energy consumption = R Energy is saved by: • Thermal insulation (RL) and by • Controlling the thermostat ( TA) • Build smaller houses (A A) 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 11
  12. 12. If a car were a house (2/2) Energy is saved by: • More efficient powertrains and by • Driving less, slower and more constantly • Lighter and smaller cars 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 12
  13. 13. Fuel consumption is a function of vehicle attributes and powertrain technologies Importance of attributes relative to annual mileage and driving style Freeway Road resistance Aerodynamics Weight/kinetic energy recovery Powertrain size Powertrain technology Multi-speed transmission e Road resistance DRIVING STYLE Weight Kinetic energy recovery providing Kinetic energy recovery electric power Efficient low-range transmission Urban Low MILEAGE High Powertrain technology Price Importance of attributes 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 13
  14. 14. Best vehicle types depend on annual distance driven and driving conditons Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style Freeway Low-tech, Non-hybrid, aerodynamic, aerodynamic, gasoline- 4-cylinder sedan powered car DRIVING STYLE Low-tech, gasoline- Lightweight, powered, micro- diesel/ hybrid, hybrid vehicle lightweight vehicle Urban Low MILEAGE High 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 14
  15. 15. Electric vehicle will be the next logical step from hybrids Low or zero-emission technologies and examples Electric Vehicle (EV) with "ICE range Battery Fuel Cell Technology Hybrids extender" EV EV Examples Micro Mild Full Start-Stop St t St E-Boost EB t E-Drive EDi E-Drive EDi Smart Civic IMA Prius GM E- Tesla FCX Flex concept Potential 3-4% < 15% < 20% < 100% 100% 100%1) ? CO2 reduction Range E-Motor 0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400 (miles) Pure Electric Vehicles 1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100% Source: Roland Berger Research 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 15 15
  16. 16. By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significant market share 40% of world population will live in cities (>1 million people) & California will require a share of Zero-Emission- vehicles in fleet Battery technology improvements (will) ELECTRIC provide sufficient range & costs will VEHICLES come down New market players will be on the market with electric cars & increase the pressure on the OEMs Source: Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 16
  17. 17. Hydrogen powered Electric Vehicles will not play a significant role before 2020 Four major stoppers for the success of hydrogen as the future fuel have been identified 1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion 2. 2 Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline 3. End user technologies such as fuel cells won't be market competitive by 2020 4. Other competing technologies such as PHEVs1) and BEVs2) offering today better CO2 emissions levels at a market competitive price and with lower investment requirements will already be established in the market – and may "close the door for FCEVs3)" 1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 17
  18. 18. ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuel cell cars Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen and electricity Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency 100 20 100 8 10 4 5 18 8 69 27 3 28 Electr. H2 H2 H2 Fuel Electr. Energy Electr. Power Battery Li-ion Electr. Energy Well Prod. Transp. Compre Cell Drive left Well lines charger Battery Drive left ssion Train Train Source: Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 18
  19. 19. Business opportunities are abundant because the solution is more than a hybrid Technology development and supply of: Efficient DiesOtto Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel engines engines Electric motors and Light weight AWD Efficient transmissions EMS capabilities Communication/ Light weight body Integration, … structures vehicle/vehicle and vehicle/infrastructure 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 19
  20. 20. Business opportunities because the solution is more than a hybrid Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 20

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