The North American NGV Market
Snapshot of Market Metrics, Recent Trends, Future Outlook
Katrina Bell
Marketing/CNG Busines...
• Technology improvements are expanding our
economically recoverable base so much so
that the estimated supply is now @ 11...
Translating Abundance into Savings
One MMBtu is ~8.0 GGE of (uncompressed) natural gas
One MMBtu is ~7.2 DGE of (uncompres...
Snapshot of US NGV Market Today
• Existing NGV inventory: ~142K
• ~22-24,000 MDVs
– 9,000 gov’t
– 1,700 package delivery
–...
Growing Selection of NGVs from OEMs, SVMs
LD/MD Retrofits*
• Altech-Eco
• LandiRenzo/Baytech
• IMPCO Automotive
• Westport...
Snapshot of US NGV Market Today
• Vehicular natural gas consumption :~10-12% AGR past 6 years
– 2005: ~200MM GGE
– 2011: ~...
Snapshot of US NGV Market Today
• Station count is now ~1485 after steady growth in past 36
months; installed capacity is ...
Multiple Stakeholders
Are Engaging NGV
Fueling Infrastructure
Development
• Local Gas Dist. Co.
• NG Retailers
• NG Explor...
Q: How Do We Solve
The “Chicken & Egg” Conundrum?
(A: Make a chicken-egg omelet*)
• Throughput (sales volume) is key to ge...
Observations/Predictions
“Crystal Ball” - Vehicle Sales in 2014
– 2014: 25K “new” NGVs will hit the road
• OEM LDV sales will benefit from:
– New s...
“Crystal Ball” - Vehicle Sales in 2014
(continued)
– HDV sales will be solid due to:
• Continued 8.9L sales gains in refus...
“Crystal Ball” – Station Counts in 2014
– Station count will continue at 225-275+ rate (avg. for past 2 yrs.)
• CNG will c...
For more information please contact:
Stephe Yborra
Director of Market Development
NGVAmerica
400 N. Capitol Street, NW - S...
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Future of Alternative Fuels in WI Showcase - ANGI Energy Systems/NGVAmerica Presentation

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Katrina Bell, ANGI Energy Systems, presented information on the future of Natural Gas Vehicles in Wisconsin for our Future of Alternative Fuels in WI Showcase.

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Future of Alternative Fuels in WI Showcase - ANGI Energy Systems/NGVAmerica Presentation

  1. 1. The North American NGV Market Snapshot of Market Metrics, Recent Trends, Future Outlook Katrina Bell Marketing/CNG Business Development – ANGI Energy Systems On behalf of NGVAmerica
  2. 2. • Technology improvements are expanding our economically recoverable base so much so that the estimated supply is now @ 115+ yrs.! • Natural gas and crude oil are decoupled Currently, CNG saves $1.25-1.75 vs gasoline, $1.50-2.00+ vs diesel. • Major difference between crude oil and natural gas as % of total fuel cost Natural Gas Abundance Drives Price Differential PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-2012 NG and Crude Oil Prices 1997-2012 Impact of base commodity on pump fuel price $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $4.00 Diesel ($86WTI) $2.00 NaturalGas $3.50 NaturalGas $7.00 NaturalGas RetailMarkup Refining/Compression, Distribution,Taxes RawCommodity $4.00 2% 40% 58% $1.50 22% 60% 18% $1.74 20% 52% 28% $2.30 19% 39% 42%
  3. 3. Translating Abundance into Savings One MMBtu is ~8.0 GGE of (uncompressed) natural gas One MMBtu is ~7.2 DGE of (uncompressed) natural gas. If average MMBtu is ~$4.75, commodity % is $.59/GGE ($.66/DGE) . Add gas company delivery, compression, maintenance, equipment amortization: ~$1.50-1.70/GGE ($1.67 -1.89/DGE) + fed and state taxes. LNG pricing derived differently but base gas cost is same
  4. 4. Snapshot of US NGV Market Today • Existing NGV inventory: ~142K • ~22-24,000 MDVs – 9,000 gov’t – 1,700 package delivery – 3,000 airport/university/ community shuttle – 9,000 utilities, F&B, comm. services, household goods, construction, misc. • ~33-35,000 HDVs • 11,000 buses • 5,300 school bus • 7,500+ refuse • 5,000 ports/regional haul • 4,500-5,000 muni/F&B/Misc. • ~83,000 LDVs (fleet and consumer vehicles) • Cars/SUVs, trucks/vans • 2012: ~17,450 NGVs added to US roads (net gain of ~10K vehicles) • 2013: ~19,600 NGVs added (net gain of ~ 12K vehicles)
  5. 5. Growing Selection of NGVs from OEMs, SVMs LD/MD Retrofits* • Altech-Eco • LandiRenzo/Baytech • IMPCO Automotive • Westport/BAF Technologies • NGV Motori USA • NatGasCar • Auto Gas America • Greenkraft • PowerFuel Conversions • World CNG Retrofits of GM, Ford, Dodge, VW, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Workhorse, Isuzu, JAC, UtiliMaster, Freightliner Custom Chassis LD OEMs • American Honda • General Motors • Chrysler Ram Trucks HD Truck OEMs • Freightliner Truck • Volvo • International • Kenworth • Peterbilt • Mack • Thomas Built Bus • Blue Bird Bus • Optima/NABI • El Dorado • New Flyer • Motor Coach Ind. • Gillig • DesignLine HD Bus OEMs • Mack • Peterbilt • Crane Carrier • Autocar Truck • ALF Condor • Elgin • Johnston • Schwarze • Tymco • Capacity HD Vocational OEMs HD Retrofit/Repowers • American Power Group • Clean Air Power • Fyda Energy Solutions • NGV Motori • Omnitek Engineering Dual fuel retrofits and SING repowers of Cummins, Daimler, Navistar, Detroit Diesel, Mack, Volvo, Caterpillar
  6. 6. Snapshot of US NGV Market Today • Vehicular natural gas consumption :~10-12% AGR past 6 years – 2005: ~200MM GGE – 2011: ~325MM GGE – 2012: ~350MM GGE – 2013: ~400MM GGE – Medium- and Heavy-duty fuel use is growing dramatically . Growth rate will accelerate with new niche market successes, new platform availability for MD/HD truck sector…and consumer market? – Factors affecting timeframe include pace of worldwide economic recovery, petroleum-natural gas differential, vehicle choices… ….vehicle and station tax credits, grants that accelerate adoption
  7. 7. Snapshot of US NGV Market Today • Station count is now ~1485 after steady growth in past 36 months; installed capacity is up significantly. – New stations are based on better economics, either higher throughput with anchor accounts or aggregated loads and better sizing of equipment to loads – 2013 saw additional of ~250-275 stations • About half are “public access;” emphasis today is on upgrading experience to meet public expectations • CNG able to handle local hub and spoke and many regional trucking applications • Increased LNG infrastructure is in place to serve longer haul OTR trucking.
  8. 8. Multiple Stakeholders Are Engaging NGV Fueling Infrastructure Development • Local Gas Dist. Co. • NG Retailers • NG Exploration & Production Co. • Leasing Companies • Customers • “Traditional” Fuel Retailers
  9. 9. Q: How Do We Solve The “Chicken & Egg” Conundrum? (A: Make a chicken-egg omelet*) • Throughput (sales volume) is key to generating economies of scale for the public access station owner, thus allowing pump price differentials that drive reasonable payback and life-cycle savings for customers • Minimum load thresholds vary based on a variety of factors including: station type, station size, fuel price differential, ability to amortize maintenance costs, equipment depreciation, grants …..ROI expectations • Achieve minimum load thresholds by: – Identifying an anchor fleet that justifies the investment…or – Aggregate several semi-anchor fleets’ loads if their depots or operating areas are geographically acceptable…or – Create retail public access for small fleets and consumers….or – All of the above
  10. 10. Observations/Predictions
  11. 11. “Crystal Ball” - Vehicle Sales in 2014 – 2014: 25K “new” NGVs will hit the road • OEM LDV sales will benefit from: – New sedan offerings (GM bi-fuel Impala, IMPCO bi-fuel Cruze) – Increased OEM fleet sales division focus on van, pick-up products • SVM LDV sales will grow slightly but they need to expand options • LDV sales will hedge on NG-Gasoline price differential – Gasoline has been relatively low (below $3.50 in most US markets; $3.75 is the magic number that makes telephones ring • SVM MDV sales will hedge on effort placed against the local commercial services/delivery markets (step vans, COE units), better integration of NG offering by FCCC, Isuzu, UtiliMaster, i/c/w SVM
  12. 12. “Crystal Ball” - Vehicle Sales in 2014 (continued) – HDV sales will be solid due to: • Continued 8.9L sales gains in refuse sector (“2nd tier” firms are embracing to compete with Republic and WM), • Flat-to-low sales growth in 8.9L transit sector depending on new transit agencies transitioning over to NG and/or current NG transits adding to inventory. Gains will depend on ability to retain current bus counts in fleets that are cycling out units purchased 10-14 years ago. • Outlook for 11.9L engine sales is strong but not as optimistic as all the hype; look for solid sales (~5-6K units) in 2014. Feedback from early adopters is mixed but “cautiously optimistic.” Sufficient station development is still a major concern as is residual value (unknown) • Excitement over expected introduction of the CWI 6.7L and Volvo 13L HPDI, but no impact until late 2015; Cummins 15L in 2016?
  13. 13. “Crystal Ball” – Station Counts in 2014 – Station count will continue at 225-275+ rate (avg. for past 2 yrs.) • CNG will continue to get lion’s share (due to transit, refuse, etc.). Regional trucking operations will continue to lean more toward CNG as on-board fuel capacity and packaging issues are resolved. LNG will continue to capture longer haul OTR accounts; pace has been “painfully cautious.” Public “LNG vs CNG” debate is “off the mark”… market needs both and will continue to support both. • LNG station development will slow until current inventory is utilized more completely; more opening of currently mothballed Clean Energy locations, greater fuel throughput as 11.9L trucks hit the road. Shell/TCA station development will face same challenges that leader Clean Energy did in 2012-2013. • Continued development of stations based on municipal/private fleet partnerships but difficulty of process will hinder pace of development
  14. 14. For more information please contact: Stephe Yborra Director of Market Development NGVAmerica 400 N. Capitol Street, NW - Suite 450 Washington, DC 20001 Director of Market Analysis, Education and Communications Clean Vehicle Education Foundation 6011 Fords Lake Court Acworth, GA 30101 syborra@ngvamerica.org / syborra@cleanvehicle.org (301) 829-2520

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