THE PURPOSE OF THIS TALK IS NOT TO CONVINCE YOU THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL. 97% OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AND EVERY MAJOR HEALTH PROFESSIONAL GROUP IN THE UNITED STATES agree and we&apos;ve got too much to talk about to spend our time going over it again. 73% of Rural nebraskans think it is, the rest divided between definitely not and I dont know. If you are in either of those groups, as you listen today, please think about what you&apos;re willing to gamble. YOUR CHILDREN, YOUR PARENTS, YOUR PARTNER? BECAUSE THATS HOW HIGH THE STAKES ARE AND JUST LIKE THE CASINO OR THE RACETRACK. IF YOU LOSE, YOU DON&apos;T GET it BACK.
PORQUE CAMBIA LA CLIMA? CARBON ES LA FUNDACION DE VIDA. TODO LO QUE HA VIVIDO TIENE CARBONO. QUANDO LO ENCENDIMOS, EL CARBONO SE JUNTA CON OXYGEN Y FORMA DIOXIDO DE CARBONO.
Earth can absorb some CO2. ¼ in oceans, ¼ in forests but we are burning twice as much as planet can handle so the other half goes into atmosphere where it forms a blanket around the earth trapping the heat of the sun, and that&apos;s why temperatures are increasing.
SO WHATS GOING ON IN NEBRASKA? PLANTING ZONES. NE USED TO BE HALF DARK GREEN AND HALF PURPLE. NOW ITS MOSTLY DARK GREEN WITH A LITTLE LIGHT GREEN THAT&apos;S NEW, AND NO PURPLE AT ALL. ANY LONGTIME GARDNER WHO CAN TELL US WHAT GROWS NOW THAT DIDN&apos;T USED TO? , FUTURE-2050 2 WEEKS LESS &lt;10, 1 MO LESS &lt;32, 15-20 MORE DAYS OVER 95, 2-3 WEEKS LONGER FREEZE FREE SEASON PRECIP , LESS RAIN IN SUMMER, more in winter,
CASE THREE A 9 year old girl is brought to the doctor by her mother for cough that won&apos;t go away. Previously active and athletic, she played soccer and was on swimming team, but now avoids exercise and spends her free time on the phone.
SUMMER ASTHMA CAMP STUDY SHOWS MDI USE DOSE RESPONSE AT OZONE LEVELS BELOW EPA LIMITS, increase in er visits Causes asthma 3 sports=3x risk
ACUTE EXPOSURE KILLS, NO SAFE LEVEL. ABOUT 40% OF AMERICANS LIVE IN AREAS WITH OZONE LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY ABOVE THE LIMIT ESTABLISHED BY THE EPA BUT THERE IS REALLY NO SAFE LEVEL OF OZONE. INCREASES IN OZONE LEVEL, EVEN WHEN BRIEF AND BELOW THE EPA&apos;S SAFE LIMIT, RESULT IN INCREASED DEATHS Ozone deaths in US triple from 2000 to 2030. .
CO2 acts as fertilizer, increases pollen production and allergenicity, and extends flowering season, spread of allergenic plants. Graph shows pollen production under preindustrial, current and projected future CO2 levels. Pollen levels predicted to double by 2040. SEASON EXTENDING MOST IN HIGHER LATITUDES. NE HAY FEVER SEASON NOW 10D LONGER
Mold causes increased ER visits for asthma and causes asthma. Recent birth cohort study higher levels of mold in home dust samples at 8 months of age doubled the risk of developing asthma by age 7 Mold more allergenic when grown at higher CO2..
A 5-year-old boy is brought to your office by his mother, who is concerned that her child is hyperactive. teacher said that the boy seems impulsive and has trouble concentrating, and recommended evaluation by a physician as well as by the school psychologist. older suburb of your community. worked with the grandfather in an automobile radiator repair shop, where her children often come to play after school. active 4-year-old who could dress himself without help but could not correctly name the primary colors. His vision was normal, but hearing acuity was below normal, and speech and language were slightly delayed. Immunizations are up to date. Anemia prior visit, rx Fe. in the tenth percentile for height and weight. His attention span is very short, making him appear restless, and he has difficulty following simple instructions.
Researchers looked at the effect of Temp, Soil moisture, and pm 10 on air concentrations of soil and Pb and found a direct relationship.
They then looked at blood lead levels (BLLs) in 360,000 children in Detroit from 2000s and found near-identical seasonal properties. Again, due to minute ventilation, impact is highest on the youngest. An atmospheric Pb level increases BLL of a 1 year old more than 3 times higher than a 7 year old.
You can see fromstandardized test scores the significant impact of lead levels between 5-10 mcg/dl on academic achievement. Currently about half a million US kids have BLL over 5. This chronic low level exposure cannot be terminated by home hazard abatement unless we are to cap or remove all soils from urban centers.
Not sure how risk was defined. Sometimes due to age of housing. Elevated lead in residential yards in Lincoln
infant is crying incessantly and has vomiting and profuse diarrhea. afebrile but has tachypnea, central cyanosis, and drowsiness. Afebrile breathing fast heart fast. Bluish tinge to lips An ambulance is summoned and 100% oxygen is administered by face mask. No improvement in the cyanosis is noted on her arrival at the hospital emergency department.
Miscarriages, neural tube defects, blue baby syndrome.
Thyroid cancer increased with water half the EPA standard, nitrates plus atrazine non hodgkins lymphoma
Nitrate plus atrazine linked to non hodgins lymphoma, 250% increased risk
In 2012 NE water table dropped 2.5 feet. Nitrate can oxidize As and make it dissolve in water, change to arsenite.failure to gain weight, neonatal infections, cancer.
Increase in water stress by 2025- supplies drop below 1700 cubic meter per person
Common at intakes to water treatment plants, water treatment is a doubled edged sword, removes microcystin but dead algae increases dissolved organic carbon which combines with chlorine to form carcinogenic disinfection by products.
IN 2007 30% OF US LAKES HAD MICROCYSTIN
WATER TEMP AT LILY LAKE 76 DEGREES, REPRODUCED AT 77 DEG
2001-2010 32 cases
Corn ethanol, increasing produce imports. Drought, irrigation with reclaimed water. Cyclospora. Food poisoning associated with warm weather. Salmonella Campylobacter
COMBINATION OF CLIMATE PROBLEM AND BAD SOLUTION. Climate change is decreasing water availability. CA grows half of nation&apos;s produce. Corn ethanol is increasing water use , decreasing production of other food crops. Food borne illness used to be from chicken. Now 20% of produce is imported, mostly from Mexico and the percentage of produce related foodborne illness is increasing as well.
THE CROPS WE GET DURING A DROUGHT MAY NOT BE HEALTHY. STRESSED CORN GETS A FUNGUS INFECTION THAT MAKES Aflatoxin potent natural carcinogen. Inserts self into DNA TURNS OFF tumor suppresser gene. INCREASES RISK OF LIVER CANCER ABOUT 7 TIMES HIGHER BUT WHEN COUPLED WITH CHRONIC INFLAMMATION LIKE HEP B OR C OR ALCOHOL, RISK IS 60 TIMES HIGHER. NAFLD increasingly common risk factor for HCC in US. Childhood obesity increases risk of adult liver cancer 12-20%. currently affects 30% of US population, predicted to double by 2050 Biomarkers detected in Texas community with high prev HCC, related to corn tortillas and rice
A 68-year-old man with rapidly progressive weakness in both legs following a few days of fever, rash, neck stiffness, fatigue and aching muscles. In ER had fever, disoriented. paralysis of his lower extremities bilaterally and absent reflexes at knees and ankles. after one week in the hospital, his strength began to return. After one month in the hospital his strength continued to improve but was not back to full strength so he was transferred to rehabilitation facility.
Nebraska 3rd after the dakotas.
THIS SLIDE SHOWS THE SPREAD OF DENGUE FEVER IN RECENT YEARS FROM THE HOTTEST AREAS AROUND THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHlso transmitted by a mosquito called the Yellow Fever mosquito because it also causes Yellow Fever, although not anymore in the US. Dengue is a severe flu like illness, sometimes called “breakbone fever” due to intense joint pain. If you are unlucky enough to catch it again, you get hemorrhagic fever which is 50% fatal without intensive treatment. Dengue was eradicated, now back. 2005 Brownsville 25% seropositive in never travelers. 75% + overall. FL 2009 5% sero+. Since 1980 7 outbreaks TX, 1 HI, 4 FL. 2000-2007 hospital admissions for dengue tripled. In addition to effects on breeding and biting of mosquitos mentioned for WNV, climate change is increasing the mosquitos&apos; geographic range. The most effective transmitter can&apos;t survive freezes, range expanding northward with warmer winters.
Fastest growing infection in the world.
Climate model mapping in NE shows range moving northward
Urine and feces. Causes pulmonary syndrome, respiratory and heart failure
Deer mouse is all over the US, determining factor is how many, has to do with food supply. Hoarders, wet summer, mild fall, milder winters could increase population. Nephropathia epidemica (NE), an emerging rodent-borne hantavirus infection, has become the most important cause of infectious acute renal failure in Belgium, with sharp increases since the 1990s. Outbreaks correspond to the size of the vole population. Studies show that peak years follow a warm autumn the year before and a warm summer 2 years before which results in increased “mast” tree leaves and seeds for the voles to feed on. Hantavirus in US related to El Nino years. Recent research using climate models suggests that number of El Nino events will stay the same but the frequency of severe El Nino years with extreme weather will double.
Trust for America&apos;s Health and RWJF surveyed state PHDs , gave NE a failing grade.
Extreme heat causes more deaths than any other type of extreme weather event,, variability kills more over 10,000/ year LETHAL Heat wave in Europe 2003- 70,000 deaths. 2006 2 weeks, 600 deaths, 1600 hospitalizations, 16000 ER visits. In US avg annual heat deaths in hundreds, Medicare study on warmer summer days showed 10,000 deaths/yr in elderly with diabetes, heart failure, chronic lung disease IN UTERO EFFECTS low birth weight 2011 206 DEATHS ENTIRE US
AGRESSION increased rates of assault, murder, domestic violence, suicides and psychiatric holds for danger to others UC Berkeley metaanalysis of 60 studies- for each SD of increased temp or decreased rainfall 4% increase in individual/small group violence, 14% increase in major conflicts
So what&apos;s the forecast? Two columns By 2047we will be outside of temperature range of the past 150 years. the coldest year will be warmer than our current hottest year. severe heat waves that used to occur once every 30 years, will happen annually and the number of extreme heat days will triple to quadruple. NE will have an extra 15-20 days over 95 by mid century, with heat waves lasting longer HEAT RELATED DEATHS WILL quadruple nationally but in some urban areas increase as much as INCREASE 7 FOLD BY 2050
We are facing a public health emergency. Public health- affects whole populations
Emergency- not because everyone will drop dead right away but because greenhouse gases are almost forever,
if we stopped now, it would take 300 hundred years for the ocean to absorb 60% CO2 because once the surface water gets saturated, have to wait for deep water to cycle up. Then the ocean is full. Removal of the next 10% takes 1000 years to react chemically with rock to become bicarbonate and get taken up into seashells, fall to the floor and get turned into limestone. The remaining 20% has to go back underground to coal and oil, which will take 10,000 years. Meanwhile, CO2 from natural sources is still being emitted and adding to what&apos;s there. If you add faster than you can remove, it keeps building up. What happens to T? Global warming is like weight. Its easier to gain than lose. T would keep increasing for decades and then plateau. It wouldn&apos;t go down for 1000 years.
By 2030, 40% of adults will be obese, 44% will have cardiovascular disease, 1 of 5 will have DM
WHY? BECAUSE OUR FOSSIL FUEL ADDICTION IS MAKING US SICK 1/3 OF COLON CANCERS, 1/3 OF POSTMENOPAUSAL AND RECURRENT BREAST CANCERS, 1/3 OF HEART DISEASE AND DIABETES CASES PREVENTABLE BY PHYSICAL ACTIVITY HALF ENDOMETRIAL CANCERS, 1/3 ESOPHAGEAL AND PANCREATIC CANCERS ATTRIBUTED TO OBESITY WHICH IS RELATED TO INACTIVITY
Ag system- fossil fuel, nitrogen fertilizer and water intensive. , using up our soil. Ruminants produce methane. 20X Fertilizer produces nitrogen oxides 300X Overconsumption of meat and corn sugars leads to CVD, cancer, obesity and diabetes.
LUCKILY, ITS NOT THAT DIFFICULT. THE SOLUTIONS ARE COMMONSENSE, PAY FOR THEMSELVES IN FUEL AND HEALTHCARE SAVINGS, AND IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF LIFE. BUT OF COURSE THERES A CATCH,
Not problem deniers, solution deniers. BUYING A PRIUS WON&apos;T HELP
JOHN SNOW BECAME THE FATHER OF EPIDEMIOLOGY BY STOPPING A CHOLERA EPIDEMIC IN LONDON BEFORE THE GERM THEORY OF DISEASE WAS EVEN ESTABLISHED. DID HE DO IT BY GOING AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD TELLING EVERYONE NOT TO DRINK WATER? HEWENT TO HIS LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND GOT THEM TO TAKE THE HANDLE OFF THE PUMP. “The pestilence was stayed.” Take the handle off the pump is not something you do at your own house,
3 IN NE: Belleview, Lincoln, and Omaha. Cities across the country have almost a decade of experience and many successful projects to decrease energy waste and lower emissions. So we know what to do and we know how to do it, but we don&apos;t have the political will in Washington to scale them up and get them done. 32 TEXAS, 50 FLA, 33 IOWA, SO WHAT&apos;S IN THE DOCTORS&apos; PRESCRIPTION?
ZERO ENERGY HOME SEATTLE, MAKES UP USE WITH SOLAR. 75% CONSERVATION AND 25% GENERATION.
Atlanta Olympics- traffic decreased 20%, ozone decreased almost 30%, and kids ER visits for asthma down over 40%. The health cost of fossil fuel addiction is enormous. Globally 400,000 people a year die as a result of climate change (90% are children) but 4.5 million die from lung disease, CVD and cancer from carbon related air pollution. We spend more on the health consequences of fossil fuel than we do on fossil fuel itself. Closing all coal burning power plants in the US would save 13,200 lives and prevent nearly 10,000 hospitalizations and more than 20,000 heart attacks each year with an annual health savings of more than $100 billion per year For every ton of CO2 emissions we eliminate, even counting the cost to do it, we come out economically ahead.
WE NEED TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF THEIR CARS. EVEN WITH IMPROVED FUEL ECONOMY, THE REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS WILL BE OUTWEIGHED BY the projected INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF CARS and miles driven. WE GET WHAT WE PAY FOR: HIGHWAYS. ONLY 1% FOR ACTIVE TRANSPORT AND WE HAVE TO FIGHT TO KEEP IT. Public transit: equalize the federal match, invest till people are using it. NY and transit 40% of daily trips are under 2 miles. Put the things we need within walking distance, separate the people from the cars, Mass transit mixed mode. Public transport – 30% get recommended exercise vs 80% of total pop that doesn&apos;t. Why should each person take 1-2 tons of steel if they&apos;re all going to the same place. Highly functional system, investment, subsidy.
Increased average daily time spent on active transport from 4 to 22 minutes/d SF bay area Decrease 14% heart disease, stroke, and diabetes 6-7% dementia and depression 5% breast and colon cancer 1.4 -22 billion dollars/year saved Midwestern metrop areas- 50% short trips by bike save over $5 billion in health spending per year: $3.8 billion/year saved due to health benefits of exercise and $2.5 billion due to benefits of cleaner air.
Nutritionally in the US we get what we pay for. We&apos;re subsidizing corn for feed and ethanol and that&apos;s what we get. !% of crop subsidies goes for produce. Just got on crop insurance this year. We know that lowering prices of produce increases consumption. Align subsidies with federal dietary recommendations. 40% of food is wasted. Revising use by labelling Tax credits for farmers who donate cosmetically unsellable food. Lets make energy out of waste instead of methane.
Heavy meat eaters eat an avg 700 cal more/d Decrease cancers by 10%, heart disease by 20%, 25% less diabetes
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION TODAY. I&apos;VE GOT PRESCRIPTIONS FOR ACTION YOU CAN ENDORSE HERE AND NOW, AND CARDS WITH THE WEB ADDRESS, IF YOU NEED TO STUDY IT FURTHER. THIS SLIDESHOW AND MY SPEAKERS NOTES ARE AVAILABLE FOR YOU TO DOWNLOAD AND USE. I ALSO HAVE PRESENTATIONS FOR GENERAL AUDIENCES THAT YOU CAN SHARE WITH YOUR COMMUNITY.
Nebraska On The Edge: Climate Change and Health in Nebraska
NEBRASKA ON THE EDGE:
Climate change and human health
NE Towns with Childhood
Lead Poisoning Risk
Nebraska Dept of Health and Human Services