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Web Meets World
     Tim O’Reilly

   O’Reilly Media, Inc.
     www.oreilly.com



  Web 2.0 Expo Berlin
     October 21, 2008
Something here about end of Web 2.0

    • web2.Over




2
Deep trends behind Web 2.0

    • The internet as platform
    • Harnessing collective intelligence
    • Data as the “Intel Inside”
    • Software above the level of a single device
    • Software as a service




3
Deep trends behind Web 2.0

    • The internet as platform
    • Harnessing collective intelligence
    • Data as the “Intel Inside”
    • Software above the level of a single device
    • Software as a service

    These are not short-term trends!




3
Deep trends behind Web 2.0

    • The internet as platform
    • Harnessing collective intelligence
    • Data as the “Intel Inside”
    • Software above the level of a single device
    • Software as a service

    These are not short-term trends!

    Do you think we’re done yet?


3
Winners and Losers
    • Winners
       – Cloud computing
       – SAAS applications like Google Apps
       – Open Source software
       – Companies delivering valuable services to
         business or consumers
       – Breakthroughs in collective intelligence
       – Entrepreneurs who believe so much in what they
         are doing that they stick to it

    • Losers
       – Me-too startups fueled by easy money
       – Venture capitalists who invested in them
4
5
6   • Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
Not an investment bubble - a reality
    bubble!
    • Financial crises
    • Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age
    • Oil price shock
    • Global warming
    • Decline in science literacy & education
    • Water scarcity
    • Exotic diseases
    • Aging populations and soaring health costs
    • Decline in US and European economic
      competitiveness and innovation
7   • Dysfunctional political system
8
9   • Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316
It’s tough to predict the future




10
11
12
Scenarios for Oil Drilling:
                   1980–90


   Active Rigs
(Yearly Averages)




                    Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
Scenarios for Oil Drilling:
                   1980–90


   Active Rigs
(Yearly Averages)




                                                            Actual




                    Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
Scenario Planning

                          Singularity




     Politics                                        Visionary
     As Usual                                        leadership




          Global Economic & Environmental Collapse
15
Robust Strategies

                         Singularity




     Politics                                   Visionary
     As Usual                                   leadership




         Global Economic & Environmental Collapse
16
Robust Strategy #1




         Work on stuff that matters!




17
18
To Act or Not to Act – 4
      Choices
                                               No Climate Change           Yes Climate Change


                                            Invest Money                 Invest Money
                                            Invent new technology        Save 1B Lives
                         We Act
                                            Reduce reliance on oil       Invent new technology
                                                                          Reduce reliance on oil




                                          Life goes on                   Billions die
          We Do NOT Act                                                   Large wars
                                                                          Horrible famine and drought
                                                                          End of world as we know it
                                                                          Total economic collapse


Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

       February 2008                                       Kevin Surace                              41
To Act or Not to Act – 4
      Choices
                                               No Climate Change           Yes Climate Change


                                            Invest Money                 Invest Money
                                            Invent new technology        Save 1B Lives
                         We Act
                                            Reduce reliance on oil       Invent new technology
                                                                          Reduce reliance on oil




                                          Life goes on                   Billions die
          We Do NOT Act                                                   Large wars
                                                                          Horrible famine and drought
                                                                          End of world as we know it
                                                                          Total economic collapse


Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

       February 2008                                       Kevin Surace                              41
Pascal’s Wager




20
21
How can I make any difference?




22
quot;A victory small enough to be
     organized is too small to be
     decisive.quot;

                          --Eliot Janeway,
                     Struggle for Survival




23
24
25
Tracking Illegal Deforestation in Brazil
     with Google Earth




      Source: New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/americas/19brazil.html
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Great challenge = Great opportunity




33
The Berlin Airlift
     • 2.3 Million tons from
       277,569 total flights
     • One flight landing every 2
       1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day,
       for 15 months
     • At peak, one landing per
       minute
     • Planes unloaded by local
       residents - volunteers -10
       tons in 10 minutes!
     • Development of modern
       methods of air traffic control
     • Companies such as Boeing,
       Lockheed
     • Ultimately, the basis for air
       freight companies like
       FedEx

34
35
36
37
Compliments on extremadura etc




38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Robust Strategy #2




     Create more value than you capture




51
“Visionary companies ... are not afraid to
     make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy
     Audacious Goals’”

        --Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last




52
IBM’s original forecast for the PC




53
IBM’s original forecast for the PC




53
54
“A PC on every desk and in every home”




55
“The PC is just a toy.”




56
In 1998, search had largely been written
     off as a business opportunity...




57
“Organize all the world’s information”




58
Do you think we’re done yet?




59
60
61

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OReilly Radar

  • 1. Web Meets World Tim O’Reilly O’Reilly Media, Inc. www.oreilly.com Web 2.0 Expo Berlin October 21, 2008
  • 2. Something here about end of Web 2.0 • web2.Over 2
  • 3. Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service 3
  • 4. Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service These are not short-term trends! 3
  • 5. Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service These are not short-term trends! Do you think we’re done yet? 3
  • 6. Winners and Losers • Winners – Cloud computing – SAAS applications like Google Apps – Open Source software – Companies delivering valuable services to business or consumers – Breakthroughs in collective intelligence – Entrepreneurs who believe so much in what they are doing that they stick to it • Losers – Me-too startups fueled by easy money – Venture capitalists who invested in them 4
  • 7. 5
  • 8. 6 • Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
  • 9. Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble! • Financial crises • Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age • Oil price shock • Global warming • Decline in science literacy & education • Water scarcity • Exotic diseases • Aging populations and soaring health costs • Decline in US and European economic competitiveness and innovation 7 • Dysfunctional political system
  • 10. 8
  • 11. 9 • Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316
  • 12. It’s tough to predict the future 10
  • 13. 11
  • 14. 12
  • 15. Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90 Active Rigs (Yearly Averages) Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
  • 16. Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90 Active Rigs (Yearly Averages) Actual Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
  • 17. Scenario Planning Singularity Politics Visionary As Usual leadership Global Economic & Environmental Collapse 15
  • 18. Robust Strategies Singularity Politics Visionary As Usual leadership Global Economic & Environmental Collapse 16
  • 19. Robust Strategy #1 Work on stuff that matters! 17
  • 20. 18
  • 21. To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices No Climate Change Yes Climate Change Invest Money Invest Money Invent new technology Save 1B Lives We Act Reduce reliance on oil Invent new technology Reduce reliance on oil Life goes on Billions die We Do NOT Act Large wars Horrible famine and drought End of world as we know it Total economic collapse Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI February 2008 Kevin Surace 41
  • 22. To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices No Climate Change Yes Climate Change Invest Money Invest Money Invent new technology Save 1B Lives We Act Reduce reliance on oil Invent new technology Reduce reliance on oil Life goes on Billions die We Do NOT Act Large wars Horrible famine and drought End of world as we know it Total economic collapse Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI February 2008 Kevin Surace 41
  • 24. 21
  • 25. How can I make any difference? 22
  • 26. quot;A victory small enough to be organized is too small to be decisive.quot; --Eliot Janeway, Struggle for Survival 23
  • 27. 24
  • 28. 25
  • 29. Tracking Illegal Deforestation in Brazil with Google Earth Source: New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/americas/19brazil.html 26
  • 30. 27
  • 31. 28
  • 32. 29
  • 33. 30
  • 34. 31
  • 35. 32
  • 36. Great challenge = Great opportunity 33
  • 37. The Berlin Airlift • 2.3 Million tons from 277,569 total flights • One flight landing every 2 1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 15 months • At peak, one landing per minute • Planes unloaded by local residents - volunteers -10 tons in 10 minutes! • Development of modern methods of air traffic control • Companies such as Boeing, Lockheed • Ultimately, the basis for air freight companies like FedEx 34
  • 38. 35
  • 39. 36
  • 40. 37
  • 42. 39
  • 43. 40
  • 44. 41
  • 45. 42
  • 46. 43
  • 47. 44
  • 48. 45
  • 49. 46
  • 50. 47
  • 51. 48
  • 52. 49
  • 53. 50
  • 54. Robust Strategy #2 Create more value than you capture 51
  • 55. “Visionary companies ... are not afraid to make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy Audacious Goals’” --Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last 52
  • 56. IBM’s original forecast for the PC 53
  • 57. IBM’s original forecast for the PC 53
  • 58. 54
  • 59. “A PC on every desk and in every home” 55
  • 60. “The PC is just a toy.” 56
  • 61. In 1998, search had largely been written off as a business opportunity... 57
  • 62. “Organize all the world’s information” 58
  • 63. Do you think we’re done yet? 59
  • 64. 60
  • 65. 61