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RUSSELL MCATHY
Using Machine
Learning To Forecast
Future Sales, the SEO
Way! @therustybear
Russell McAthy
@therustybear
CEO of CUBED
14 years of..
Prev. Consultant to enterprise
Prev. Agency Director
Prev. Digital Strategist/Analyst
“Managed“ well over £1B media
spend
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Accountable
Actionable
Successful
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Data & Analytics
Programmatic Creative
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
The biggest issues
SEO’s face is NOT
Google
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
SEO’s biggest issue is
their inability to
showcase their
SUCCESS
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
• Bottom funnel
• Instant Impact
• Very low CPA
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
• Mid funnel
• Brand, Product
• Mid term Impact
• Mid Level CPA
• Bottom funnel
• Instant Impact
• Very low CPA
• Top of funnel
• Brand Advertising
• Long term Impact
• Very High CPA
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
• Mid funnel
• Brand, Product
• Mid term Impact
• Mid Level CPA
• Bottom funnel
• Instant Impact
• Very low CPA
• Top of funnel
• Brand Advertising
• Long term Impact
• Very High CPA
YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS
YOUR BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY
YOU OPTIMISE THIS ALREADY
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Getting Started in GA
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Micro Conversions – Comparison Values
Signed up for
Newsletter
14
Scrolled past
40% in blog post
7
Read two blog
posts
10
Added item to
basket
25
Searched for
Store Location
15
Started the
booking process
50
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Common Journeys
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Last Click (Last Non Direct Click)
First Click / Interaction
Distributed
Bathtub
Time Sequence
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
£ 40
Revenue
Your
CPA
£ 0
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
£ 40
Revenue
Your
CPA
£ 0
£ 2
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
£ 40
Revenue
Your
CPA
Actual
Costs
Attributed
Revenue
£ 0 £ 0
£ 2
£ 0.05
£ 0.5
£ 10
£ 0.2
£ 0.10
£ 2
£ 9.8
£ 10.1
£ 0.7
£ 1.6
£ 8.3
£ 9.3
£ 0.2
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
⭐
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐
Converting Journeys
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐
Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys
% % % % %
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Visit ID Events Datetime
Sale
Datetime
Probability
337,148 (16),(19),(19),(19),(19)
2017-02-08
14:04:32 45.71%
451,231 (19),(17),(18),(17),(16)
2017-02-14
18:53:17 37.94%
563,727 (19),(16),(19),(17),(16),(19),(16),(19),(16)
2017-02-18
13:27:02 63.75%
823,716 (16),(19),(17),(17),(16),(19),(17),(16),(19),(1),(5)
2017-02-22
15:26:09
2017-02-22
15:55:12
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales CUBED Sales Variance %
Affiliates 4,496 4,623 2.82%
Direct 52,685 50,448 -4.25%
Display RM 856 983 14.8%
Email 17,073 16,496 -3%
PPC 20,176 21,837 8.23%
Referral 17,429 17,508 0.46%
SEO 5,493 6,227 13.4%
Social Organic 2,152 2,235 3.9%
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales
Affiliates 4,496
Direct 52,685
Display RM 856
Email 17,073
PPC 20,176
Referral 17,429
SEO 5,493
Social Organic 2,152
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales
Affiliates 4,496
Direct 52,685
Display RM 856
Email 17,073
PPC 20,176
Referral 17,429
SEO 5,493
Social Organic 2,152
SEO
+48
+502
+28
+16
+175
+548
+85
+1402
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales
Affiliates 4,496
Direct 52,685
Display RM 856
Email 17,073
PPC 20,176
Referral 17,429
SEO 5,493
Social Organic 2,152
SEO
CUBED Sales
4,623
50,448
983
16,496
21,837
17,508
6,227
2,235
+48
+502
+28
+16
+175
+548
+85
-3
-101
-15
-58
-181
-225
-85
-668+1402
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales
Affiliates 4,496
Direct 52,685
Display RM 856
Email 17,073
PPC 20,176
Referral 17,429
SEO 5,493
Social Organic 2,152
SEO
CUBED Sales
4,623
50,448
983
16,496
21,837
17,508
6,227
2,235
+48
+502
+28
+16
+175
+548
+85
-3
-101
-15
-58
-181
-225
-85
-668+1402
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Variance % Variance
Affiliates +45 5.0%
Direct +401 44.4%
Display RM +13 1.4%
Email +170 18.8%
PPC +323 35.7%
Referral -6 -0.7%
Social Organic -42 -4.6%
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales
Affiliates 4,496
Direct 52,685
Display RM 856
Email 17,073
PPC 20,176
Referral 17,429
SEO 5,493
Social Organic 2,152
SEO
CUBED Sales
4,623
50,448
983
16,496
21,837
17,508
6,227
2,235
+48
+502
+28
+16
+175
+548
+85
-3
-101
-15
-58
-181
-225
-85
-668+1402
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Variance % Variance
Affiliates +45 5.0%
Direct +401 44.4%
Display RM +13 1.4%
Email +170 18.8%
PPC +323 35.7%
Referral -6 -0.7%
Social Organic -42 -4.6%
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
The guys at Seer wrote an awesome post on Dark Direct
traffic http://cubed.link/darkdirecttraffic
Channel Value – Client Example
Channel LC Sales
Affiliates 4,496
Direct 52,685
Display RM 856
Email 17,073
PPC 20,176
Referral 17,429
SEO 5,493
Social Organic 2,152
SEO
CUBED Sales
4,623
50,448
983
16,496
21,837
17,508
6,227
2,235
+48
+502
+28
+16
+175
+548
+85
-3
-101
-15
-58
-181
-225
-85
-668+1402
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Variance % Variance
Affiliates +45 5.0%
Direct +401 44.4%
Display RM +13 1.4%
Email +170 18.8%
PPC +323 35.7%
Referral -6 -0.7%
Social Organic -42 -4.6%
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Channel Variance % Variance
Affiliates +45 5.0%
Direct +401 44.4%
Display RM +13 1.4%
Email +170 18.8%
PPC +323 35.7%
Referral -6 -0.7%
Social Organic -42 -4.6%
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
1 or multiple SEO visits
PPC
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐
Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys
% % % % %
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐
Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys
% % % % %
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybearCUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
When we forecast, we
actually are just
assigning values
Conversion ⭐
👀
👀
Direct
PPC (Brand)
Display Re-targetting
Email
PPC (Generic)
SEO
Display
⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐
Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys
% % % % %
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybearCUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
This enables us to not
just the value of a visit
but also a page!
CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
• How much value does each
landing page have outside of a
single visit
• How effective a page is at
converting a journey
• How effective a page is at
contributing to a future visit
• When a page is killing journeys
The Inbounder London - 2. May 2017 Russell Mc Athy
The Inbounder London - 2. May 2017 Russell Mc Athy

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The Inbounder London - 2. May 2017 Russell Mc Athy

  • 1.
  • 2. RUSSELL MCATHY Using Machine Learning To Forecast Future Sales, the SEO Way! @therustybear
  • 3. Russell McAthy @therustybear CEO of CUBED 14 years of.. Prev. Consultant to enterprise Prev. Agency Director Prev. Digital Strategist/Analyst “Managed“ well over £1B media spend CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 5. Data & Analytics Programmatic Creative CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 6. The biggest issues SEO’s face is NOT Google CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 7. SEO’s biggest issue is their inability to showcase their SUCCESS CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 8. • Bottom funnel • Instant Impact • Very low CPA CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 9. • Mid funnel • Brand, Product • Mid term Impact • Mid Level CPA • Bottom funnel • Instant Impact • Very low CPA • Top of funnel • Brand Advertising • Long term Impact • Very High CPA CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 10. • Mid funnel • Brand, Product • Mid term Impact • Mid Level CPA • Bottom funnel • Instant Impact • Very low CPA • Top of funnel • Brand Advertising • Long term Impact • Very High CPA YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS YOUR BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY YOU OPTIMISE THIS ALREADY CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 11. Getting Started in GA CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 12. Micro Conversions – Comparison Values Signed up for Newsletter 14 Scrolled past 40% in blog post 7 Read two blog posts 10 Added item to basket 25 Searched for Store Location 15 Started the booking process 50 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 13. Common Journeys CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 14. Last Click (Last Non Direct Click) First Click / Interaction Distributed Bathtub Time Sequence CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 15. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 16. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display £ 40 Revenue Your CPA £ 0 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 17. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display £ 40 Revenue Your CPA £ 0 £ 2 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 18. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display £ 40 Revenue Your CPA Actual Costs Attributed Revenue £ 0 £ 0 £ 2 £ 0.05 £ 0.5 £ 10 £ 0.2 £ 0.10 £ 2 £ 9.8 £ 10.1 £ 0.7 £ 1.6 £ 8.3 £ 9.3 £ 0.2 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 19. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display ⭐ CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 20. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ Converting Journeys CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 21. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys % % % % % CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 22. Visit ID Events Datetime Sale Datetime Probability 337,148 (16),(19),(19),(19),(19) 2017-02-08 14:04:32 45.71% 451,231 (19),(17),(18),(17),(16) 2017-02-14 18:53:17 37.94% 563,727 (19),(16),(19),(17),(16),(19),(16),(19),(16) 2017-02-18 13:27:02 63.75% 823,716 (16),(19),(17),(17),(16),(19),(17),(16),(19),(1),(5) 2017-02-22 15:26:09 2017-02-22 15:55:12 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 23. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales CUBED Sales Variance % Affiliates 4,496 4,623 2.82% Direct 52,685 50,448 -4.25% Display RM 856 983 14.8% Email 17,073 16,496 -3% PPC 20,176 21,837 8.23% Referral 17,429 17,508 0.46% SEO 5,493 6,227 13.4% Social Organic 2,152 2,235 3.9% CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 24. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales Affiliates 4,496 Direct 52,685 Display RM 856 Email 17,073 PPC 20,176 Referral 17,429 SEO 5,493 Social Organic 2,152 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 25. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales Affiliates 4,496 Direct 52,685 Display RM 856 Email 17,073 PPC 20,176 Referral 17,429 SEO 5,493 Social Organic 2,152 SEO +48 +502 +28 +16 +175 +548 +85 +1402 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 26. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales Affiliates 4,496 Direct 52,685 Display RM 856 Email 17,073 PPC 20,176 Referral 17,429 SEO 5,493 Social Organic 2,152 SEO CUBED Sales 4,623 50,448 983 16,496 21,837 17,508 6,227 2,235 +48 +502 +28 +16 +175 +548 +85 -3 -101 -15 -58 -181 -225 -85 -668+1402 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 27. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales Affiliates 4,496 Direct 52,685 Display RM 856 Email 17,073 PPC 20,176 Referral 17,429 SEO 5,493 Social Organic 2,152 SEO CUBED Sales 4,623 50,448 983 16,496 21,837 17,508 6,227 2,235 +48 +502 +28 +16 +175 +548 +85 -3 -101 -15 -58 -181 -225 -85 -668+1402 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear Channel Variance % Variance Affiliates +45 5.0% Direct +401 44.4% Display RM +13 1.4% Email +170 18.8% PPC +323 35.7% Referral -6 -0.7% Social Organic -42 -4.6% CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 28. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales Affiliates 4,496 Direct 52,685 Display RM 856 Email 17,073 PPC 20,176 Referral 17,429 SEO 5,493 Social Organic 2,152 SEO CUBED Sales 4,623 50,448 983 16,496 21,837 17,508 6,227 2,235 +48 +502 +28 +16 +175 +548 +85 -3 -101 -15 -58 -181 -225 -85 -668+1402 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear Channel Variance % Variance Affiliates +45 5.0% Direct +401 44.4% Display RM +13 1.4% Email +170 18.8% PPC +323 35.7% Referral -6 -0.7% Social Organic -42 -4.6% CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 29. CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear The guys at Seer wrote an awesome post on Dark Direct traffic http://cubed.link/darkdirecttraffic
  • 30. Channel Value – Client Example Channel LC Sales Affiliates 4,496 Direct 52,685 Display RM 856 Email 17,073 PPC 20,176 Referral 17,429 SEO 5,493 Social Organic 2,152 SEO CUBED Sales 4,623 50,448 983 16,496 21,837 17,508 6,227 2,235 +48 +502 +28 +16 +175 +548 +85 -3 -101 -15 -58 -181 -225 -85 -668+1402 CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear Channel Variance % Variance Affiliates +45 5.0% Direct +401 44.4% Display RM +13 1.4% Email +170 18.8% PPC +323 35.7% Referral -6 -0.7% Social Organic -42 -4.6% CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 31. Channel Variance % Variance Affiliates +45 5.0% Direct +401 44.4% Display RM +13 1.4% Email +170 18.8% PPC +323 35.7% Referral -6 -0.7% Social Organic -42 -4.6% CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear 1 or multiple SEO visits PPC
  • 32. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys % % % % % CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear
  • 33. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys % % % % % CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybearCUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear When we forecast, we actually are just assigning values
  • 34. Conversion ⭐ 👀 👀 Direct PPC (Brand) Display Re-targetting Email PPC (Generic) SEO Display ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ Converting Journeys Non-Converting Journeys % % % % % CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybearCUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear This enables us to not just the value of a visit but also a page!
  • 35. CUBED.ai | #inbounder | @therustybear • How much value does each landing page have outside of a single visit • How effective a page is at converting a journey • How effective a page is at contributing to a future visit • When a page is killing journeys