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The Silver Lining - Opportunities & Insights amdist Corona

What to expect in the era of "After-Corona"

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The Silver Lining - Opportunities & Insights amdist Corona

  1. 1. Insights & Opportunities amidst Corona Wavemaker Germany The Silver Lining 31 March 2020
  2. 2. 2The Silver Lining When written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters. 危机 One represents 'danger'; the other 'opportunity'. John F. Kennedy
  3. 3. 3 Scenarios for Recovery – there is reason for hope 3The Silver Lining V-Shape Quick recovery after a short dip (2-6 months) U-Shape Longer recovery (4-12 months), but no recession L-Shape Economy goes into full recession, recovery could take years. An L-shape is considered highly unlikely by all experts. V vs. U depends largely on the recovery scenario in China which is already doing much better – a V-shape seems likely. Source: Business Insider
  4. 4. 4The Silver Lining General recommendations amidst the crisis Your category is immediately affected by the lock-down/crisis. (E.g. travel, hospitality, sports) Your category is currently in high demand. (E.g. toilet paper, cleaning & sanitizing products, skincare, FMCG, pharma) Your category is not a priority at this point in time. (E.g. automotive, durables, fashion) Your category is not necessary, but offers emotional benefits. (E.g. cosmetics, beverages, luxury)
  5. 5. 5The Silver Lining What happens if you "go dark"? An advertising stop of up to 6 months typically has little immediate effect on key brand metrics except communication (ad) awareness. However: Your brand has to be available and "visible" (not guaranteed right now). Larger brands are more affected by going dark than smaller brands. Brands that continued to invest during 2008 crisis remained stronger and recovered faster than others. Source: KANTAR, August 2018
  6. 6. 6The Silver Lining See the current crisis as an opportunity to set your brand up for growth after CORONA. Our Provocation for You
  7. 7. 7The Silver Lining How media usage has changed during the lock-down 5,7% 9,6% 10,2% 11,6% 12,2% 13,2% 14,6% 19,6% 20,0% 21,5% 22,2% 23,6% 25,1% 33,4% 39,3% 41,5% Gaming Channels (eg. Twitch) Magazines Podcasts Music Streaming (eg. Spotify) Newspapers Catch-up TV (private channels) Online-/Videogames Video Portals (eg. YouTube) Catch-up TV (public channels) Video Streaming (eg. Netflix) Radio Mobile Apps Social Networks Messenger TV broadcast Surfing Online Use more frequently Source: mScience, Mar 26, 2020
  8. 8. 8The Silver Lining Observations & Implications TV usage is up dramatically, both in terms of reach and view time: this means lower CpM. People spend more time online: there are more opportunities to talk and to seamlessly connect to online purchase. Media usage among younger audiences (18-39) has increased over-proportionally: there is a chance to engage with people who are otherwise hard to reach. Even print usage has increased: there is an opportunity to leverage increased attention span among premium audiences.
  9. 9. 9 As TV reach increases it becomes less expensive to reach more people. Moreover, it is cheaper to main- tain or even increase your SoV. These efficiencies will disappear during recovery. How to leverage new media behavior: example TV 0 5 10 15 20 25 Pre-Corona Full Lockdown Early Recovery Full Recovery TV Reach Primetime Pre-Prime -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cost co-efficient The Silver Lining Source: AGF, Wavemaker estimation
  10. 10. 10The Silver Lining According to a recent study, online shoppers have purchased 88% more goods compared to before the crisis. DYI and cosmetics are among the biggest winners but e-Food is doing equally well. If you are already selling you brand online, consider these recommendations: • make sure your online advertising connects seamlessly to you online shop; • make sure your eComm UX is pleasant and frictionless; • now is the time to invest in programmatic. And don't forget eCommerce 100,0% 100,0% 50,0% 9,0% 17,0% 64,0% 90,0% 212,0% 88,0% GetNow Bofrost Picnic Consumer Electronics Furniture Cosmetics Toys DYI Total online volume Source:, e-Food claimed
  11. 11. 11The Silver Lining In good times, people want to advertise. In bad times, they have to.
  12. 12. 12The Silver Lining Our global MOMENTUM study demonstrates why … It is 6x more likely for consumers to buy a brand, when they already have a strong priming bias. Every € invested during lockdown will have 6.1 times the impact during recovery. Momentum is WAVEMAKER's world-leading purchase journey insight into how people decide to buy brands. Among other things, Momentum uncovers the impact of priming (or branding) bias has towards the final purchase decision. 6.1 Source: Wavemaker MOMENTUM 2015-2020; 88 studies on a global level
  13. 13. 8% 10% 13% 15% 19% 19% 20% 21% 23% 24% 35% 44% 44% 47% 49% 55% 71% Buy more food online than before crisis Listen to radio less often Do more online shopping than before Corona Read fewer newspapers/magazines Work remotely/from home more often than before crisis Use public transport less frequently Consume less news Watch less streaming video Watch less TV Spend less time on social media Pay more attention to brands that helped during Corona Go to cinema Go shopping for fun My lifestyle will not change Live more mindfully than before Corona Go to bars / restaurants Meet with friends in person Will do very likely/likely What consumers will do after Corona: a Wavemaker proprietary study 13The Silver Lining Source: Wavemaker/mScience, Apr 1, 2020, n=1.089
  14. 14. Insights & Implications 14The Silver Lining • Almost ¾ of respondents will meet with their friends as quickly as possible after lockdown has ended; especially the younger ones are looking forward to rekindle their social contacts. More than half will go to bars or restaurants. • Half of those interviewed claim they will change their lifestyle after Corona and live more mindfully. The older the respondents the more likely this is. • An interesting 25% of the respondents are planning to reduce the time spent on social media – it seems they prefer personal physical contacts over virtual ones. • Only about 20% claim that they will reduce their TV or streaming consumption post-crisis; this is surprisingly few, given that about twice as many have claimed to have increased their consumption during the lockdown. • In total, approximately 13% of the population is planning to do more online shopping compared to pre-crisis, nearly 10% are planning to buy food online. Apparently, many consumers have gotten used to the convenience of eCommerce. 35% of all consumers say, that they will pay more attention to brands, which helped during the COVID-19 crisis
  15. 15. Management Summary 15The Silver Lining 1. Significantly improved media costs during CORONA due to increased media usage and decreased competitive spend. 2. Relative media costs will likely be considerably higher post-CORONA than before crisis. 3. Post-crisis we expect an overall reduction in media usage but a visible increase of consumer demand across most categories. 4. Creating a strong priming bias during CORONA is significantly more efficient than post-crisis. 5. "Going dark" is an option but bears high risks, especially for bigger brands.
  16. 16. Grow fearless 16For further questions please send a mail to