The Silver Lining - Opportunities & Insights amdist Corona
Insights & Opportunities
The Silver Lining
31 March 2020
2The Silver Lining
When written in Chinese, the
word 'crisis' is composed of
One represents 'danger'; the
John F. Kennedy
3 Scenarios for Recovery – there is reason for hope
3The Silver Lining
Quick recovery after a
short dip (2-6 months)
Longer recovery (4-12
months), but no recession
Economy goes into full
recession, recovery could
An L-shape is considered highly unlikely by all experts.
V vs. U depends largely on the recovery scenario in China which is
already doing much better – a V-shape seems likely.
Source: Business Insider
4The Silver Lining
General recommendations amidst the crisis
Your category is
immediately affected by
(E.g. travel, hospitality,
Your category is currently
in high demand.
(E.g. toilet paper, cleaning
& sanitizing products,
skincare, FMCG, pharma)
Your category is not a
priority at this point in
Your category is not
necessary, but offers
(E.g. cosmetics, beverages,
5The Silver Lining
What happens if
you "go dark"?
An advertising stop of up to 6
months typically has little immediate
effect on key brand metrics except
communication (ad) awareness.
Your brand has to be available and
"visible" (not guaranteed right now).
Larger brands are more affected by
going dark than smaller brands.
Brands that continued to invest
during 2008 crisis remained stronger
and recovered faster than others.
Source: KANTAR, August 2018
6The Silver Lining
See the current crisis as an
opportunity to set your brand
up for growth after CORONA.
Our Provocation for You
7The Silver Lining
How media usage has changed
during the lock-down
Use more frequently Source: mScience, Mar 26, 2020
8The Silver Lining
Observations & Implications
TV usage is up dramatically, both in terms of
reach and view time: this means lower CpM.
People spend more time online: there are more
opportunities to talk and to seamlessly connect
to online purchase.
Media usage among younger audiences (18-39)
has increased over-proportionally: there is a
chance to engage with people who are
otherwise hard to reach.
Even print usage has increased: there is an
opportunity to leverage increased attention
span among premium audiences.
reach increases it
becomes less expensive to
reach more people.
Moreover, it is cheaper to main-
tain or even increase your SoV.
These efficiencies will
How to leverage new media
behavior: example TV
Pre-Corona Full Lockdown Early Recovery Full Recovery
TV Reach Primetime
The Silver Lining
Source: AGF, Wavemaker estimation
10The Silver Lining
According to a recent study, online shoppers
have purchased 88% more goods compared to
before the crisis. DYI and cosmetics are among
the biggest winners but e-Food is doing equally
If you are already selling you brand online,
consider these recommendations:
• make sure your online advertising connects
seamlessly to you online shop;
• make sure your eComm UX is pleasant and
• now is the time to invest in programmatic.
And don't forget eCommerce
Source: mapp.com, e-Food claimed
11The Silver Lining
In good times, people
want to advertise.
In bad times, they
12The Silver Lining
Our global MOMENTUM study demonstrates why …
It is 6x more likely for consumers to buy a
brand, when they already have a strong
Every € invested during lockdown will
have 6.1 times the impact during recovery.
Momentum is WAVEMAKER's world-leading purchase journey
insight into how people decide to buy brands.
Among other things, Momentum uncovers the impact of priming
(or branding) bias has towards the final purchase decision.
Source: Wavemaker MOMENTUM 2015-2020; 88 studies on a global level
Buy more food online than before crisis
Listen to radio less often
Do more online shopping than before Corona
Read fewer newspapers/magazines
Work remotely/from home more often than before crisis
Use public transport less frequently
Consume less news
Watch less streaming video
Watch less TV
Spend less time on social media
Pay more attention to brands that helped during Corona
Go to cinema
Go shopping for fun
My lifestyle will not change
Live more mindfully than before Corona
Go to bars / restaurants
Meet with friends in person
Will do very likely/likely
What consumers will do after Corona:
a Wavemaker proprietary study
13The Silver Lining
Source: Wavemaker/mScience, Apr 1, 2020, n=1.089
Insights & Implications
14The Silver Lining
• Almost ¾ of respondents will meet with their friends as quickly as possible after lockdown has ended; especially the
younger ones are looking forward to rekindle their social contacts. More than half will go to bars or restaurants.
• Half of those interviewed claim they will change their lifestyle after Corona and live more mindfully. The older the
respondents the more likely this is.
• An interesting 25% of the respondents are planning to reduce the time spent on social media – it seems they prefer
personal physical contacts over virtual ones.
• Only about 20% claim that they will reduce their TV or streaming consumption post-crisis; this is surprisingly few, given
that about twice as many have claimed to have increased their consumption during the lockdown.
• In total, approximately 13% of the population is planning to do more online shopping compared to pre-crisis, nearly 10%
are planning to buy food online. Apparently, many consumers have gotten used to the convenience of eCommerce.
35% of all consumers say, that they will pay more attention to
brands, which helped during the COVID-19 crisis
15The Silver Lining
1. Significantly improved media costs during
CORONA due to increased media usage and
decreased competitive spend.
2. Relative media costs will likely be considerably
higher post-CORONA than before crisis.
3. Post-crisis we expect an overall reduction in
media usage but a visible increase of consumer
demand across most categories.
4. Creating a strong priming bias during CORONA
is significantly more efficient than post-crisis.
5. "Going dark" is an option but bears high risks,
especially for bigger brands.
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