Water Resources Planning and Governance in Highly Contested Rivers
Water Resources Planning and Governance in Highly Contested Rivers RiverSymposium, 9 October 2012 Robert Speed Okeanos Pty Ltd
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gregated global gap between existing accessible, reliableply1 and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gainm3, 154 basins/regions 6,900 2% 900 CAGR -40% 2,800 1,500 Municipal & 4,500 4,200 Domestic 100 600 700 Groundwater Industry 800 Relevant supply quantity is much lower that the 4,500 absolute renewable water availability in nature 3,500 Surface water Agriculture 3,100 Existing 2030 Basins with Basins with Existing withdrawals2 withdrawals3 deficits surplus accessible, reliable, sustainable supply1 Units: billion m3 ng supply which canSource: Mat 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of be provided ckinsey, 2009, Char%ng our Water nmental requirements Future d on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRId on GDP, population projections and agricultural production projections from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between 2005-2030E: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case
Historical PerspecHves and Approaches Infrastructure & Systemic water Growth & water use resources development• water resource (surface) • catchment (IWRM) • political-economic• reconciliation • resource protection • inter-sectoral• demand projections • demand management • uncertainty (change)• water supply regulation • WQ management • water as catalyst/const• system optimisation • stakeholder engagement • adaptive management pre-‐1970’s 1980’s & 1990s 2000’s
Issue 1. • In heavily contested basins, it is oQen no longer possible to allocate and manage water resources to meet all developmental demands. • Water is both a major constraint and also a catalyst for economic development. ShiQ from “water for the economy” to “water in the economy”
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the ﬁle again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.Lesson: Water plans and development plans should be developed through an itera6ve process
Issue 2. • People – and what they value – maXer in water resources management. All the more so in contested basins.
Lesson: Understand the social and cultural values and incorporate those in the process
Issue 3. • Where water resources development oﬀers clear social and economic beneﬁts, environmental protecHon needs to demonstrate an equally compelling case. In developing countries, this is even more criHcal.
95% decline in ﬁsh fry Lesson: the importance of good science and monitoring only increases as basins become more contested
Issue 4. • Challenges associated with water security are intricately linked with issues related to food and energy security
Lesson: Understand the connec6ons, the dependencies, and the costs and beneﬁts
Issue 5. • Having an aspiraHonal vision for a basin can promote a long-‐term view BUT may not always provide guidance on how trade-‐oﬀs should be managed
Lesson: Acknowledge that you can’t have everything and decide what it is you want from the basin Pegram et al., 2012