ENERGY 2020:INDEPENDENCE DAYGlobal Ripple Effects of the North American Energy RevolutionCiti GPS: Global Perspectives & SolutionsFebruary 2013Macro Edward L Morse Eric G Lee Equity Deane M Dray, CFAAnalysts Kingsmill Bond, CFA Tina M Fordham Analysts Stan FediukCiti is one of the world’s largest ﬁnancial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employeesconduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary global conversation – accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice for our clients. Asour premier thought-leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our clients navigate the global economy’s most demanding challenges, identify future themesand trends, and help our clients proﬁt in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harveststhe thought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our ﬁrm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or asolicitation to buy or sell any ﬁnancial instrument. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at www.citi.com/citigps.
Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2013Macro Analysts Edward L Morse is a Managing Director and the Head of Global Commodities Research at Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. He previously held similar positions at Lehman Brothers, Louis Capital Markets and Credit Suisse. Widely cited in the media, he is a contributor to journals such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, The New York Times, and The Washington Post. He worked in the US government at the State Department, and later was an advisor to the United Nations Compensation Commission on Iraq as well as to the US Departments of State, Energy and Defense and to the International Energy Agency on issues related to oil, natural gas and the impact of financial flows on energy prices. A former Princeton professor and author of numerous books and articles on energy, economics and international affairs, Ed was the publisher of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly and other trade periodicals and also worked at Hess Energy Trading Co. +1-212-723-3871 | email@example.com Eric G Lee is a Research Analyst with Citis Commodities Strategy group in New York. He covers fundamental, macroeconomic and geopolitical research of global commodity markets, with a focus on oil. Prior to joining Citi, Eric received his Masters degree in international relations and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, DC, where he focused on energy markets and policy, and Chinas political economy. Previously, he worked in the news and media industry in London and Beijing. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science. +1-212-723-1474 | firstname.lastname@example.org Kingsmill Bond, CFA is a Russian Strategist, based in Moscow. He joined Citi from Troika Dialog and he has been number one ranked for Russian strategy in the Institutional Investor or Extel surveys for the past three years. He has been working in the Russian market for much of the last twenty years, with stints at Deutsche Bank in Eastern Europe, Asia, and as its Global Emerging Market Strategist. He is a trained Accountant, a CFA Charterholder, and has a degree in History from Cambridge University. +7-495-643-1489 | email@example.com Tina M Fordham joined Citi in 2003 and as Senior Global Political Analyst and head of Citis Political Analysis unit, focuses on the implications of macro political developments for companies and investors. Additionally, Ms. Fordham is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Geopolitical Risk Council, a fellow of the Aspen Institute’s Socrates Society, a member of Chatham House and Senior Research Fellow, Kings Centre for Risk Management, Kings College, London. Previously she served as Senior Adviser in the UK Prime Ministers Strategy Unit and was Director of Global Political Risk at the international consultancy Eurasia Group. Ms. Fordham has a Masters degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universitys School for International Public Affairs. +44-20-7986-9860 | firstname.lastname@example.orgContributors Daniel Ahn Matthew Dabrowski Shuang Ding Seth Kleinman Commodity Economics Political Analysis China Economics Energy Strategy Farouk Soussa Adrian Thomas Anthony Yuen Aakash Doshi MidEast Economics CEEMEA Economics Energy Strategy Commodity StrategyEquity Analysts Deane M. Dray, CFA joined Citi Research in June 2010 as a Director and sector leader of the industrials group, covering the Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment sector. Deane has more than 25 years of investment experience, including 14 years covering the industrial sector. Prior to joining Citi, He spent 11 years as a senior analyst with Goldman Sachs covering this sector. He has published extensively on the global water sector and has hosted investor conferences on this megatrend topic. Deane received his BA degree from Brown University with honors and completed his MBA degree at the New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business. He is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the NYSSA. +1-212-816-4030 | email@example.com Stan Fediuk joined Citi Research in August 2010 as a Senior Associate on the Integrated Oil & Natural Gas team, primarily focusing on the Integrated Oil sector. Prior to transitioning into finance, Stan was a programmer working in various industries and on various platforms for 10 years. Stan received his undergraduate degree from Fordham University in Computer Science and MBA from Fordhams Graduate School of Business in Finance and Accounting. +1-212-816-3626 | firstname.lastname@example.orgContributors Graham Cunningham John Hirt PJ Juvekar Faisel Khan Heidy Rehman Asia Pac Oil & Gas US Chemicals US Chemicals US Oil & Gas MENA Basic MatTimm Schneider Alastair Syme Timothy Thein John Tysseland Chris Wetherbee Brian YuUS Natural Gas European Oil & Gas US Machinery US MLPs US Transportation US Metals & Mining
By summer of 2013, Canada will be the Export of crude oilthe US will no longer primary supplier of from the US Gulfneed to import light sour crude into the US Coast could be seensweet crude into the Gulf Coast by end 2014. by end of the decade.US Gulf Coast.