Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

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Peter Hayman speaking at the Mannum Community Science Forum

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Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

  1. 1. South Australian Murray Darling Basin NRM Board<br />Ranges to River NRM - Community Science Forum<br /> <br />Farming Sustainability & Technologies<br /> <br />
  2. 2. Climate change and Australian Farming Systems<br />Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga<br />
  3. 3. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?<br />What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?<br />
  4. 4.
  5. 5. CSIRO and Bureau of Met March 2010<br />
  6. 6.
  7. 7. Causes of climate change<br />Causes<br />Ocean Circulation<br />Volcanic eruptions<br />Solar variations<br />Orbital variations<br />Greenhouse gasses<br />Feedback<br />Clouds, Aerosols, Water vapour, Ice reflectivity, GHG<br />
  8. 8. Changes to the atmosphere<br />Changes to global climate<br />Changes to regional climate<br />Impacts on local natural and human systems <br />www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu<br />Cascading uncertainty<br />
  9. 9. Role for agronomy & farming systems<br />Changes to the atmosphere<br />Emission scenarios<br />Changes to global climate<br />Global circulation models<br />Climate Science<br />Changes to regional climate<br />Downscaling models<br />Role for agronomy and farming sysgtems<br />Impact models<br />Impacts on local natural and human systems <br />www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu<br />Cascading uncertainty<br />
  10. 10. Ryan et al 2010<br />
  11. 11.
  12. 12. Nurioopta<br />Eden Valley<br />N<br />Lyndoch<br />
  13. 13. Thinking about future climates<br />Climate change projections from GCMS<br />Temporal analogues <br />– eg drought<br />Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site<br />Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline<br />
  14. 14.
  15. 15. Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.<br />
  16. 16. April to October rainfall<br />
  17. 17.
  18. 18. Sep 2000<br />
  19. 19. Sep 2002<br />
  20. 20. Sep 2006<br />
  21. 21. Howden et al 2010<br />

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