Project control using earned value analysis - Part 01
Mission of the projects control division
Why the earned value management?
Establishment of the Performance Measurement Baseline
EVM Analysis & Forecasting
2. Missions… 2
Support Projects/Programs managers on projects control using EVM tools & Technique for
integrate management of Projects Scope, Time, and Cost.
Earned Value is needed because...
o Preventing scope creep.
o Improving communication and visibility with
o Performance tracking, and forecasting
o Enable measures for different types of tasks.
o Roll up progress of many tasks into an overall project
o Need for a uniform unit of measure (Cost or work-
EVM can answering management questions that are
critical to the success of every project, such as:
o Are we ahead of or behind schedule?
o How efficiently are we using our time?
o When is the project likely to be completed?
o Are we under or over our budget?
o How efficiently are we using our resources?
o What is the remaining work likely to cost?
o What is the entire project likely to cost?
o How much will we be under or over budget?
Successful projects are standard; there is a
continuous improvement of planning on one hand,
and budget and schedule control on the other.
3. Earned Value Management (EVM)… 3
EVM Develops and Monitors Within Planning & Execution Phases.
Key practice of the project control process consist of two phases
Establish a Performance Measurement
Measure and analyze performance against
Actual Cost Actual Progress
PV EV ACTIME CONTROL COST CONTROL
4. Earned Value Management (EVM)… 4
It’s a project management technique that’s required the formation of an Integrated Baseline against
which Performance can be measured for the duration of the project.
EVM Develops and Monitors Three Key dimension for each work package.
5. Establishment of a Performance Measurement
01 Decompose work scope to a
manageable level [WBS]
02 Develop the Baseline
03 Third Estimate the Project
04 Four Develop the Performance
WBS – Work Breakdown Structure
• Define the Scope of Work
• Decompose Deliverables into Work Package
• Decompose to Manageable Level Activities
Develop the Baseline Schedule
• Define the Major Project Milestones
• Logical Relations Between Activities, and WBS
• Develop Baseline Schedule
Estimate the Project Budget
• Quantities Survey
• Develop CBS
• Estimated Material, Labors, and Non-Labors Cost
• Develop Baseline Budget
Develop the Performance Measurement Baseline
• Assign Budget “Resources” to Baseline Schedule
• Resources Leveling & Balancing
• Establish a Performance Measurement Baseline
6. Establish a Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)… 6
Does Planned Resource Consumption Make Sense?
1. DEFINE THE WORK
2. SCHEDULE THE WORK
3. ALLOCATE BUDGETS
J F M A
M J J A
7. EVM Performance Analysis and Forecasting 7
01 Calculate The EVM Three Key
02 Calculate the Time & Cost
03 Third Calculate the Project Key
04 Four Forecast at Completion
The EVM Three Key dimension
• Record resource usage during project execution
• Objectively measure the physical work progress
• Calculate AC - Actual Cost, and EV earned value
The Time & Cost Variances
• Schedule Variance (SV)
• Cost Variance (CV)
• Variance at Complete (VAC)
The Project Key Performance Indicates
• Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
• Cost Performance Index (CPI)
• To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
Forecast at Completion Project Status
• Time Estimate at Completion (EACt)
• Estimate at Completion (EAC)
• Variance at Completion (VAC)
8. Earned Value Management Three Key dimension… 8
Performance measurement baseline ..
Budget that is spread over . . .
time, to accomplish the scope of
and against which
progress can be measured
when all work has been phased,
cumulative BCWS = BAC
Planned Value (PV):
Describes how far along a project is
supposed to be at any given point in the
project schedule. The authorized Budget
assigned to the Activities, or Work
The planned (Budget) cost to complete the
work that has been done
Earned Value = Assigned Budget for each work
task * the physical work progress
Earned Value (AC):
Is the value of work performed expressed in
terms of the approved budget assigned to
that work for an Activity or Work Breakdown
The costs actually incurred and recorded in
accomplishing the work performed (BCWP)
within a given time period
Other, Equipment's, computer costs, etc.
Actual Cost (AC):
Is an indication of the level of resources that
have been expended to achieve the actual
work performed to date or in a time period.
10. Schedule Analysis and Forecasting:
How are we doing TIME wise? … EV Vs. PV
+ Value ... Ahead
– Value … Behind
Example: If the project is 25 percent behind
schedule, meaning that 25 percent of the
planned work has not been accomplished.
Schedule Variance (SV):
Are we ahead or behind schedule?
SV = EV – PV SV% = SV / PV
SPI > 1 ... Ahead
SPI < 1 … Behind
This SPI indicates that work is being
accomplished percent efficiency, usually used
also for compare various projects performance
Schedule Performance Index
How efficiently are we using our time?
SPI = EV / PV
Using the SPI and the average Planned Value
per unit of time, can generate a rough estimate
of when the project will be completed, if
current trends continue, compared to when it
was originally supposed to be completed.
Time Estimate at Completion
When are we likely to finish the work?
EACt = (BAC / SPI) / (BAC / MONTHS)
11. Cost Analysis and Forecasting:
How are we doing COST wise? … EV Vs. AC
+ Value ... Under-Budget [Save]
– Value … Over-Budget [Non-Recoverable Loss]
Cost Variance (CV) is a measure of cost
performance on Budget. The EVM CV is
particularly Critical because it indicate the
relationship of Physical Performance to the
Cost Variance (CV):
Are we under or over budget?
CV = EV – AC CV% = CV / EV
SPI > 1 ... Under-Budget [Save]
SPI < 1 … Over-Budget [Non-Recoverable Loss]
If we translate this into dollars, it would mean
that Project has a cost efficiency of $0.xx worth
of work for every dollar spent to date, usually
used also for compare various projects
Cost Performance Index:
How efficiently are we using our resources?
CPI = EV / AC
The Estimate at Completion (EAC) tells a
manager where the cost of a project is likely to
end up if current performance trends continue.
Variance at Completion:
Will we finish under or over budget
VAC = BAC – EAC
Cost Estimate at Completion
12. Estimate at Complete (EAC)… 12
Estimate at Complete (EAC) technique that’s depend on various factors as contract type, and
previous key performance indicates.
Usually calculated within one of the following formulas.
EstimateAtComplete Forecast for ETC Work Performed at
the Budget Rate
EAC = AC + (BAC-EV)
Forecast for ETC Work Performed at
the Present CPI
Forecast for ETC Work Considering
Both SPI & CPI
13. To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)… 13
Which can tell a manager the efficiency that must be achieved for a project to meet a specified
endpoint such as the Budget at Completion (BAC). This means that for Project EZ to achieve BAC,
performance must improve from a CPI of 0.83 to a TCPI of 1.07 for the remaining work.
To-Complete Performance Index:
How efficiently must we use our
14. Final EVM Trend Analysis … 14
Does It Given You All Information You Need To Know?
J F M A
M J J A
Approx. Time Variance
15. Final EVM Trend Analysis [REPORT]… 15
Does It Given You All Information You Need To Know?
PV EV AV SV SPI CV CPI ETC EAC VAC TCPI
Main Elements ManpowerCode
16. Example: 16
Problem: A project has a budget of £10M and
schedule for 10 months. It is assumed that the
total budget will be spent equally each month
until the 10th month is reached. After 2 months
the project manager finds that only 5% of the
work is finished and a total of £1M spent.
The best way to understand an EVM example is to solve it.
PV = £2M
EV = £10M * 0.05 = £0.5M
AV = £1M
CV = EV-AC = 0.5-1 = -0.5M
CV% = 100 * (CV/EV) = 100*(-0.5/0.5) = -100% overrun
SV = EV-PV = 0.5-2 = -1.5 months
SV% = 100 * (SV/PV) = 100*(-1.5/2) = -75% behind
CPI = EV/AC = 0.5/1 = 0.5
SPI = EV/PV = 0.5/2 = 0.25
EAC = BAC/CPI = 10/0.5 = £20M
ETC = (BAC-EV) / CPI = (10-0.5)/0.5 = £19M
Time to compete = (10-0.5)/0.25 = 38 Months
This project will take TOTAL £20M (19+1) and 40 (38+2) Months to