The Future of the Travel Industry     – Scenarios for 2020 World Tourism Forum Lucerne April 15th 2011    Rohit Talwar  CE...
Hotels 2020 – Objectives• Identify key drivers of change  for the globally branded hotel  sector over the next decade• Exa...
Transformational Change?   It’s Only Just Begun
What I Want – When I Want
Augmented Reality /Interactive Data Eyeglasses
Holographic Laptops
Personalization
Real Time / Predictive Analytics
Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics         448   739 691          ...
Traveller Behaviours• Too Busy To Care• Complex Lives,  Pressurised Finances• Craving Simplicity• Wealthy and Hard to  Ple...
Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse    and harder to segment into clearly definable custo...
Customers will increasingly use social media andcollective intelligence travel services (like Dopplr) to  define the desir...
The Asian middle classes will make up the largest            share of international travel                                ...
Reorientation of Global Markets  Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) ...
Industry Scenarios                          High      Uncharted                       Paranoid       Territory            ...
Virtual Airlines
Aviation Profit Pools
Swoopo - The $17,739 iPad
Heavy investment in emerging tourism markets will widen traveller choice, increase competition and potentially drive down ...
SustainabilityEnvironmental considerations will play an increasing role inthe choice of business and leisure hotels.      ...
By 2020 global hotel groups will increasingly seek to  cover the full spectrum from budget through to           luxury and...
By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed    ‘signature’ properties will emerge within hotel chainportfolios, p...
By 2020 we will see the emergence of a new breed of unbranded hotelgroup, offering white label solutions- including sophis...
Hotels will use discount offers to capture a share of pre- and post-trip travel spend e.g. purchase of luggage, clothing, ...
Hotels will increasingly provide additional business services   e.g. translation, access to legal and accounting advice,se...
Hotel guests will expect their stay to be personalized  around a set of choices they make at the time of             booki...
PricingIn a highly automated world, there will be a range of customers at   every price point who are willing to pay for p...
Hotel Categorization may Need to Evolve to Focus         More on Service Than Facilities
Mapping a Path to 2020Strategic Management ImperativesHorizon scanning   Scenario based planning       Anticipation Open p...
An Organisation Capable of Surviving andAnThriving capable of surviving and thriving in turbulence and  organisation in Tu...
Deep Understanding of an Increasingly Geographically,Financially, Generationally and Attitudinally Diverse and            ...
Deliver Personalised Service ChoicesThrough Immersive, Tactile and Multi- Dimensional Technology Interfaces
Connected, Adaptive and Predictive
Multiple Revenue Streams, Asset Light,             Insight Rich
Continuous and Open Evolution –the System as a Living Laboratory
Conclusion           Designing Your Future• All to play for• Stay on top of key  trends and drivers• Curiosity and  Magnet...
Thank you   Rohit Talwar - rohit@fastfuture.comHotels 2020 Report: http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit             Web / Newsle...
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The future of the travel industry scenarios for 2020 rohit talwar-world tourism forum lucerne 2011

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The future of the travel industry scenarios for 2020 rohit talwar-world tourism forum lucerne 2011

  1. 1. The Future of the Travel Industry – Scenarios for 2020 World Tourism Forum Lucerne April 15th 2011 Rohit Talwar CEO Fast Future Researchrohit@fastfuture.com
  2. 2. Hotels 2020 – Objectives• Identify key drivers of change for the globally branded hotel sector over the next decade• Examine the implications for:  Hotel strategy  Brand portfolio  Business models  Customer targeting  Innovation
  3. 3. Transformational Change? It’s Only Just Begun
  4. 4. What I Want – When I Want
  5. 5. Augmented Reality /Interactive Data Eyeglasses
  6. 6. Holographic Laptops
  7. 7. Personalization
  8. 8. Real Time / Predictive Analytics
  9. 9. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 448 739 691 5231 344 1998 4157 729 1030 585 2010 2050 Source : United Nations
  10. 10. Traveller Behaviours• Too Busy To Care• Complex Lives, Pressurised Finances• Craving Simplicity• Wealthy and Hard to Please
  11. 11. Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse and harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings604 Respondents
  12. 12. Customers will increasingly use social media andcollective intelligence travel services (like Dopplr) to define the desired ‘product’ for a temporary self- forming group. 50 45 45 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 9 10 5 0 0601 Respondents Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
  13. 13. The Asian middle classes will make up the largest share of international travel 60 54 50 40 30 25 21 20 10 1 0600 Respondents Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
  14. 14. Reorientation of Global Markets Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)
  15. 15. Industry Scenarios High Uncharted Paranoid Territory SurviveLow High Passenger Price Sensitivity Back to the Crash and Future Burn Low Business Model Innovation
  16. 16. Virtual Airlines
  17. 17. Aviation Profit Pools
  18. 18. Swoopo - The $17,739 iPad
  19. 19. Heavy investment in emerging tourism markets will widen traveller choice, increase competition and potentially drive down prices and profit margins across the spectrum of hotels 70 58 60 50 40 30 21 20 20 10 1 0 593 Respondents Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
  20. 20. SustainabilityEnvironmental considerations will play an increasing role inthe choice of business and leisure hotels. 606 Respondents
  21. 21. By 2020 global hotel groups will increasingly seek to cover the full spectrum from budget through to luxury and heritage properties606 Respondents
  22. 22. By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed ‘signature’ properties will emerge within hotel chainportfolios, providing differentiation and opening up ancillary revenue stream options By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed ‘signature’ properties will emerge within hotel chain portfolios, providing differentiation and opening up ancillary revenue stream options 60 57 50 40 30 22 19 20 10 2 0590 Respondents Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
  23. 23. By 2020 we will see the emergence of a new breed of unbranded hotelgroup, offering white label solutions- including sophisticated marketing, very high standards of service and advanced technology support while allowing owners to develop their own brands595 Respondents
  24. 24. Hotels will use discount offers to capture a share of pre- and post-trip travel spend e.g. purchase of luggage, clothing, transportation, insurance, duty free etc.610 Respondents
  25. 25. Hotels will increasingly provide additional business services e.g. translation, access to legal and accounting advice,secretarial support, company formation, organization of small meetings, etc610 Respondents
  26. 26. Hotel guests will expect their stay to be personalized around a set of choices they make at the time of booking or prior to arrival 60 50 50 42 40 30 20 10 7 1 0602 Respondents Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
  27. 27. PricingIn a highly automated world, there will be a range of customers at every price point who are willing to pay for personal service610 Respondents
  28. 28. Hotel Categorization may Need to Evolve to Focus More on Service Than Facilities
  29. 29. Mapping a Path to 2020Strategic Management ImperativesHorizon scanning Scenario based planning Anticipation Open processes Rapid implementation Tomorrow’s workforce
  30. 30. An Organisation Capable of Surviving andAnThriving capable of surviving and thriving in turbulence and organisation in Turbulence and Uncertainty uncertainty
  31. 31. Deep Understanding of an Increasingly Geographically,Financially, Generationally and Attitudinally Diverse and Rapidly Evolving Customer Base
  32. 32. Deliver Personalised Service ChoicesThrough Immersive, Tactile and Multi- Dimensional Technology Interfaces
  33. 33. Connected, Adaptive and Predictive
  34. 34. Multiple Revenue Streams, Asset Light, Insight Rich
  35. 35. Continuous and Open Evolution –the System as a Living Laboratory
  36. 36. Conclusion Designing Your Future• All to play for• Stay on top of key trends and drivers• Curiosity and Magnetism are key• Experiment
  37. 37. Thank you Rohit Talwar - rohit@fastfuture.comHotels 2020 Report: http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit Web / Newsletter: www.fastfuture.comConvention 2020 Study: www.convention-2020.com Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar

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