WPA's Weekly Political Brief

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief November 2, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we will distribute these weekly data updates every Friday.Being the last Friday before the election, this is the final update before the election on Tuesday.In this final update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we will feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The final jobs report before the election. • Romney’s image ratio compared to Obama’s. • Early voting compared with 2008. • A look at final polling in swing states. • Gallup projections on the 2012 electorate. Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 7.9% in the final jobs report before the election (pg. 9). o Job growth per month has averaged 157,000 in 2012 compared with an average increase of 153,000 in 2011.• Romney holds a 3 point advantage in his image ratio compared with Obama (pg. 11) o This general indicator suggests that Romney is in good position for November 6th.• Mitt Romney is outperforming both John McCain’s 2008 early vote share and is currently leading Obama among early voters (pg. 12). o Romney leads Obama, who is down 10% from his 2008 share, 50% vs. 43% among early voters nationwide.• A final look at the swing states across the country shows tight races that could result in a victory for either candidate (pg. 13). o Barack Obama won all of these states in 2008 and many by significant margins. Unlike 2008, the battle for the White House is taking place in traditionally blue states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa.• Gallup released their projections of the composition of the electorate (pg. 14). o Many demographics are similar to 2008, except party. o People identifying as Republicans increased from 29% in 2008 to 36% in 2012. Page 3
  4. 4. Fewer than 40% of Americans believe that the nation is headed in the right direction. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 66%64% 62% 63% 61% 62%60% 54% 47%50% 2010 Election 39%40% 31% 31% 31% 32% 29% 27%29% 28%27%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% Aug-12 Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jan-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Feb-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Oct-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 37% 19% Wrong Track 57% 74% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. President Obama’s job approval stayed at 50% in the final week before the election. Obama Job Approval100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%49% 48%48% 49% 50% 49%49% 49% 50% 50% 50% 40% 46% 47% 48% 47% 46%48% 48% 47% 46% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%47% 47% 30% 20% 10% 0% Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 50% 49% Disapprove 47% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. The National Debt now rests at more than $16.2 Trillion. $16,204,837,664,871 U.S. National Debt $141,422 Debt Per Taxpayer$51,502 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org and the CBO Page 6
  7. 7. The Generic Congressional Ballot is tied with 5 days until the election. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 43% 45% 45% 45%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 41% 43% 44% 45% 45%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. The majority of Americans disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 51% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 46% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 7.9% in the final jobs report before the election. Job growth per month has averaged 157,000 in 2012 compared with an average increase of 153,000 in 2011. Jobs Created by Month250,000 192,000200,000 171,000 148,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to keep pace with100,000 population growth 50,000 0 August September October National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% 6.0% October 2012 7.9% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 9
  10. 10. Mitt Romney holds a 1-point lead of President Obama on the Presidential Ballot, setting up a very tight contest for Tuesday’s election. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60%50% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 47% 48% 48%40% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 46% 46% 45% 45% 47% 47% 47% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44%30%20%10% 0% Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
  11. 11. Romney has a 3 point advantage in his image ratio compared to Obama. This general indicator suggests that Romney is in good position for the election on November 6th. Romney Favorability Obama Favorability100% 100%90% 90%80% 80%70% 70%60% 60% 50% 50%50% 50% 46% 44%40% 40%30% 30%20% 20%10% 10% 0% 0% Total Favorable Total Unfavorable Total Favorable Total Unfavorable Source: Real Clear Politics Page 11
  12. 12. Mitt Romney is outperforming both John McCain’s 2008 early vote share and is currently leading Obama among early voters. Romney leads Obama, who is down 10% from his 2008 share, 50% to 43% among early voters nationwide. Early Voter Results100%90%80%70%60% 53% 50%50% 43%40% 34%30%20%10% 0% October 23-26, 2008 October 24-28, 2012 McCain/Romney Obama Source: Pew Research Center Page 12
  13. 13. A final look at the swing states across the country shows tight races that could result in a victory for either candidate. Barack Obama won all of these states in 2008 and many by significant margins. Unlike 2008, the battle for the White House is taking place in traditionally blue states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. Swing State Polls and Obama’s Winning Percentage in 2008100%90%80% 49% 48% 47% 49% 50% 48% 49% 46% 48% 49% 50%70%60%50% 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 8% 6% 6% 3%40% OBAMA30% UNDECIDED 47% 49% 48% 48% 45% 45% 45% 50% 46% 48% 47%20% ROMNEY10% 0% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 13
  14. 14. Gallup released their projections on the composition of the electorate. Many demographics are similar to 2008, except political party. People identifying as Republicans increased from 29% in 2008 to 36% in 2012. Party Identifcation of the American Party Including Leaners People70% 100% 90%60% 80%50% 70% 39% 39% 60% 54%40% 36% 48% 49% 31% 50% 37% 35%30% 40% 48% 29% 29% 46% 42%20% 24% 30% 20%10% 10%0% 0% 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 Republican Independent Democrat Republican/Lean Republican Democrat/Lean Democrat Source: Gallup Page 14
  15. 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15

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