WPA's Key Weekend Charts 120217


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WPA's Key Weekend Charts 120217

  1. 1. WPA’s Key Weekend Charts February 17, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Key Weekend ChartsAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday morning.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • The latest on the Presidential raceIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Public reaction to Obama’s contraception policy • An example of how question phrasing on complex policy issues can alter results dramatically. • What a difference 8 days makes: Santorum’s rise to the top in just over a week. • Voters would like Obama’s budget to contain reduced spending. Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly SummarySenator Rick Santorum’s victories in the Midwest have translated into large gains nationally. • Santorum’s support has doubled in 8 days.The Obama Administration’s new contraception policies are creating waves among the Catholiccommunity. One of the interesting things this week has been seeing the variety of responses todifferent question wording as different organizations attempt to gauge the public opinion on acomplex policy issue. • Poll wording on two independent polls can shift perceived support for Obama’s plan by as much as 22%. • Despite the variety of poll responses, it is clear that the issue is splitting along party lines.When voters are engaged on Obama’s budget plan spending reductions become a higher priority. Page 3
  4. 4. Americans continue to remain pessimistic about the direction of the country. Direction of County100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 62% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 32% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Right Direction Wrong Direction Source: Reuters/Ipsos National Poll Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s approval is holding steady just under 50%. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 49%50%40% 46% 47% 42% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 46% Disapprove 48% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. Unemployment dropped from 8.5% to 8.3% in January. However, if the rate were calculated to include the 2.8 million people who wanted work but have stopped looking it would be 9.9%. National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% January, 2012 8.0% 8.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Washington Post Page 6
  7. 7. Americans continue to feel that Obama is falling short when it comes to handling the economy. Obama on the Economy100%90%80%70% 62% 58% 59%60% 53% 50% 51%50% 38% 49%40% 46% 44% 40% 36%30%20%10% 0% Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Approve Disapprove Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Page 7
  8. 8. Democrats have gained a point on the generic ballot since last week. Generic Congressional Ballot100%90%80%70%60%50% 46% 43% 44% 45% 42% 45%40% 43% 44% 41% 42% 43% 42%30%20%10% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Democrat Republican One Week Ago One Month Ago Republicans 44% 44% Democrats 44% 42% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 8
  9. 9. Each taxpayer’s share of the debt has risen $197 in the last week. $15,360,817,150,995 U.S. National Debt $135,863 Each Taxpayer’s Share$49,068 Each Citizen’s Share Source: USDebtclock.org Page 9
  10. 10. Looking at public data regarding the Obama Administration’s recent birth control edict tells two vastly different stories about how the public is perceiving the issue. Question phrasing often has outsized impact on the results of survey research, this effect is magnified when the research is being conducted on complicated policy issues. As you may know, the Obama administration has announced a new Do you support or oppose a recent federal requirement that private policy concerning health insurance plans provided by employers, health insurance plans cover the full cost of birth control for their including religious organizations, and how they handle birth control female patients? and contraceptive services for women. Based on what you have read or heard, do you approve or disapprove of this policy? CNN/ORC BS News/NYT Oppose 26% Approve 44%Disapprove 50% Unsure 8% Support 66% Unsure 6% Source: BS News/ New York Times Feb 8-13, 2012. n=1,197 adults CNN/ORC Feb 10-13, 2012. n=1,026 adults Page 10
  11. 11. While the issue splits along party lines right now, disapproval among Independents is slightly higher than approval.As you may know, the Obama administration has announced a new policyconcerning health insurance plans provided by employers, including religiousorganizations, and how they handle birth control and contraceptive services forwomen. Based on what you have read or heard, do you approve or disapprove ofthis policy?100% 90% 26% 80% 50% 47% 70% 4% 60% 85% Disapprove 50% 9% 6% Unsure 40% Approve 70% 30% 20% 44% 44% 3% 10% 12% 0% Overall Democrats Independents Republicans Source: CNN/ORC Feb 10-13, 2012. n=1,026 adults Page 11
  12. 12. With release of the Obama budget this week, voters are split between creating jobs and reducing spending as their top priority for the budget. When the discussion is anchored to the federal budget spending reductions are more important than they are as an overall issue. Which should President Obama focus on in his new budget? Who do you trust more to reduce the federal deficit? Not Sure President 4% Obama and the Democrats Republicans 42% 47% Reduce Spending 40% Not Sure 11% Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2012 presidential campaign? Economy and jobs 44%Creating Jobs 45% Health care 8% Raising Budget deficit/National debt 4% Revenues 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: CBS/NYT Feb. 8-13, 2012. n=1,197 adults (Top 3) Pulse Opinion Research February 9, 2012. n=1,000 likely voters Page 12
  13. 13. In yet another example of just how fast things can turn around in the Republican Presidential race, support for Rick Santorum has doubled in only 8 days.Republican Presidential Primary February 8 February 16 Paul Paul 15% 12% Romney 28% Romney 34%Santorum 17% Santorum 34% Gingrich Gingrich 15% 22% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 13
  14. 14. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Brian Smith Ryan Steusloff Vice President Vice President 405.640.9517 202.470.6300 bsmith@WPAResearch.com rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 14