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Georg Erdmann, Prof. for Energy System at the Berlin University of Technology

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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

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Georg Erdmann, Prof. for Energy System at the Berlin University of Technology

  1. 1. 1Germany‘s Energiewendey gP f D G E dProf. Dr. Georg ErdmannTU Berlin; Chair Energy SystemsMember of the Federal Commission Energie der Zukunft“Member of the Federal Commission „Energie der ZukunftPresident of the GEE e.V.Edison-WEC Workshop „The Energy Transition in Europe“Rome, 29 May 2013© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  2. 2. 2REN Power Generation in Germany [Source AGEB]120Electricity from renewable sources [TWh]8010060204001990 1995 2000 2005 2010© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannHydro Wind Biomass PV
  3. 3. 3Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source: AGEB]Gross electricity generation [TWh]60040050030010020001990 1995 2000 2005 2010© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannREN Oil Hard coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Other
  4. 4. 4Agenda “German Energy Policy 2013”• Origin and issues of the “Energiewende”• Targets and conflicts of the “Energiewende”• Actual challenges of the “Energiewende”– Will there be enough grid investments until 2022?Will there be enough grid investments until 2022?– What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)?– Is there a need for a capacity mechanism?© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  5. 5. 5(Nuclear) Energy Policy in Germany• Autumn 2009: After a pro nuclear campaign Merkel• Autumn 2009: After a pro-nuclear campaign, Merkelbecame reelected and replaced Social-democrats bythe Liberal party as junior partner• But the modification of the Nuclear Energy Act (AtG)was postponed until the state elections in North RhineWestphalia (NRW)• May 2010: The ruling parties (Christian-democrats andLiberals) lost the NRW elections• In spite of the problems with the Euro, the FederalGovernment asked energy researchers to developgreen energy scenarios withP t i l h t b 4 t 20– Postponing nuclear power phase-out by 4 to 20 years– Strong CO2 reduction targets– Accelerated development of renewable energies“Price” for more nuclear© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann– Ambitious energy efficiency improvementsmore nuclear
  6. 6. TPES in Green Scenarios6TPES in Green Scenarios[Source: BMU-Leitstudie; DLR December 2010 p. 38]© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  7. 7. 7German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Greenhouse gas emissions 1990  40%  55%  50%  80‐95%Primary energy consumption 2008  20%  50%Energy productivity  2.1% p.a.Power consumption 2008  10%  25%CHP electricity share 25% “Price” for CHP electricity share 25%Heat demand of building stock 2008  10%Primary energy in building stock  80%more nuclearModernization rate of buildings  2% p.a.Final energy in transportation 2005  20%  40%Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioREN share in energy consumption18% 30% 45% 60%REN electricity share 35% 50% 65% 80%© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannREN electricity share 35% 50% 65% 80%
  8. 8. 8Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)• March 15, 2011: Federal government decree toMarch 15, 2011: Federal government decree toimmediately shut-down 8’800 MW nuclear power(7 NPP + Krümmel) for tree monthsApril J ne 2011 “Ethic Commission” itho t energ• April–June 2011: “Ethic Commission” without energyexperts under the presidency of Klaus Töpfer• Conclusion: “Der Ausstieg ist nötig und wird empfohlen”g g p• July 2011: Parliamentary decision of a package of energylaw amendments– Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPP– Remaining 9 NPP (12’700 MW) shall be closeduntil 2022– Accelerated transmission grid investments– EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannEnergiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
  9. 9. 9Agenda “German Energy Policy 2013”• Origin and issues of the “Energiewende”• Targets and conflicts of the “Energiewende”• Actual challenges of the “Energiewende”– Will there be enough grid investments until 2022?Will there be enough grid investments until 2022?– What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)?– Is there a need for a capacity mechanism?© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  10. 10. 10“Magic Triangle” of Energy PolicypricewürdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewürdigkeitCosts of energy servicesUmweltvertr äglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  11. 11. l d d G11Energy related Land Use in Germany[Data source: FNR 2012]Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020Land use for energy crops 2,06 Mio. 2,53 Mio. 4,4 Mio.Land use for energy crops 2,06 Mio. 2,53 Mio. 4,4 Mio.Thereof for bio fuels 1,15 Mio. 1,16 Mio. 2,3 Mio.Thereof for bio‐gas 0,90 Mio. 0,96 Mio. 2,1 Mio.Thereof for bio gas 0,90 Mio. 0,96 Mio. 2,1 Mio.Share of arable land 17 % 21 % 36 %F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for • Onshore‐wind and large PV installations• Power transmission lines• Pumped water storage facilities• Geothermal facilities, bio‐methane facilities, …( )© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann• Lignite mines (open pits)
  12. 12. 12Power Generation Capacity[Source: ÜNB 2012]2011 2011Capacities in GW2011(real)2011(model)2012 2013 2014 2015Installed for generation  153,3 153,3 168,3 169,5 183,2 192,5./. Non‐available load 44,4 60,3 73,9 74,7 83,6 93,4./. Energencies 5,6 6,2 6,7 6,2 6,2 6,5./. Revisios 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0./. Reserve for systemservices4,6 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,9 5,0services= Secured load 96,7 80,1 81,5 81,8 86,1 85,6./. demand 81,2 81,2 81,7 81,7 81,7 81,7Remaining load 15,5 ‐1,1 ‐0,1 0,1 4,4 3,9Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmannpneighboring countries17,2 0,8 1,7 2,2 6,5 6,0
  13. 13. 13Ch i thChanges in thePower PlantP tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022ZubauStill‐legung © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  14. 14. 14Affordability of ElectricityAbility to payAbility‐to‐pay• Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding electricity and gas payments• Number of customer receiving Social support payments for their energy purchases• Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customersWillingness‐to‐pay• Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)• Energy efficiency improvements• Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activities• Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees, REN levy and electricity taxes)© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  15. 15. 15Revenues from Power Sales [Source: Destatis 2012]54,658,961 363,360Billion Euros39 4 40,6 41,5 41,239 38 14147,350,558,561,35039,440,40,8 41,5 41393638,137,343304020101991 99 2000 200 20 0© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
  16. 16. 16Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011Billion Euros Share %Billion Euros Share %Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 63,6 100,0Government induced elements 22,0 34,5thereofthereofElectricity tax 7,2 11,4Concession fees 2,2 3,4REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 12,3 19,4CHP levy 0,2 0,3Government regulated elements 17,6 27,7thereoffPower transmission fees 2,2 3,5Power distribution fees 15,4 24,2Market driven elements 24,0 37,8thereoffMarket value of REN electricity 4,4 6,9© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmanny , ,Generation and marketing 19,6 30,9
  17. 17. 17Decomposition of the REN Levy 2012/36 t/kWh5.270.790.520.30 0.05 0.04 ‐0.54 ‐0.31 ‐0.09  0.0 ‐0.02 0.480.31 0.12 0.0356 ct/kWh3.5934Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1201012olaroremassoretherolaroremassorethercast  ervencesther013REN levy 20SoWind OnshBiomWind OffshOtSoWind OnshBiomWind OffshOtprice Forecquidity reseN preferenOtREN levy 20© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannRWWWWDA‐LiqRER
  18. 18. S l 202018REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source: EWI 2012,BMU 2009-2011, IE Leipzig 2012, r2b 2012, Erdmann 2012]8.09.0 ct/kWh6.07.0 BMU forecast May 20134.05.02.03.00.01.02000 2005 2010 2015 2020© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
  19. 19. G C f f ll19Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations[800-1000 kWh/kWp·a, Interest rate =5-8%]Power price,100120generation cost[ct/kWh ]60804060PV generation cost02044444424123412341234123412Household electricity price (incl. VAT)Q1-Q4Q1-Q4Q1-Q4Q1-Q4Q1-Q4Q1-Q4Q2Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q200 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannSource: Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
  20. 20. 20Selection of Inconsistencies• Immature technologies for mass market deployment• Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind, batteries, CAES, power‐to‐gas, …)• European, national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020• Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings• Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings• Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumptionE l i i it i i d ffi i• Energy only pricing, capacity pricing, and energy efficiency• Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission linesMarginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann• Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
  21. 21. 21Actual Challenges of the “Energiewende”• Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 for– Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants– Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p• New role of lignite power plants– Merit-Order effect– GHG emissions• Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism?Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism?© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  22. 22. G G 201022Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 20104,9%NuclearCoal10,3% 3,9% GasOther13,3%23,3%HydroPV57,6%2,8%0,6%6,6%WindOhter RENNuclear© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  23. 23. Gross Power Generation in23Gross Power Generation inBaden-Württemberg 2010NuclearNuclearCoal28%3,9%0 3%GasOther0,3%10,4%13,3%HydroPV55%0,6%1%1 3%WindOther RENNuclear55% 1,3% Other REN© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  24. 24. closed24N lopetratingNuclearPower plantsdandTransmissionG id E t iGrid ExtensionsEnLAG 2009NABEG  201120152017© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  25. 25. 25Actual Challenges of the “Energiewende”• Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 for– Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants– Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p• New role of lignite power plants– Merit-Order effect– GHG emissions• Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism?Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism?© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  26. 26. Merit Order of the26Merit Order of theGerman Power Plant Portfolio 2010/Marginal cost [EUR/MWh]150100Load (wo wind and PV)50lalNuclear LigniteCCGT GasHard coalHard coaHydro, Biomass, CHP© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann0Electric load            93 GW 
  27. 27. Merit Order of the German Power Plants27Merit Order of the German Power Plantswith Wind and PV Portfolio 2010/Marginal cost [EUR/MWh]150100Load (wo wind and PV)50lalHydro, Biomass, CHP LigniteCCGT GasHard coaHard coa© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann0Electric load            93 GW 
  28. 28. Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with50 Percent REN Electricity100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out, phase‐out of coal?80100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out, phase out of coal?60 Ordered load curve2040Ordered residual load curve(without biogas / bio‐methane)0201000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000Lignite ≥ 6000 h/a‐201000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann‐40
  29. 29. 29Actual Challenges of the “Energiewende”• Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 for– Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants– Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p• New role of lignite power plants– Merit-Order effect– GHG emissions• Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism?Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism?© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
  30. 30. Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030100 L d [GW]80100 Load [GW]60 Ordered load duration2040Ordered residual load withoutbiogas / bio‐methane0201000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000Contribution of conventional power plants‐201000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann‐40
  31. 31. 31Volatility of Wind Power [Source: Ehlers 2011, S. 100]Amprion20,000Wind power generation [MW]AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower16,0008 00012,000Gradient8,000 MW/hNo capacity contribution4 0008,0008,000 /co t but o04,000© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann1.1.2010   31.1.2010  
  32. 32. Prices and Generation Costs32Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]120 PVBiogasAverage prices / costs [Euro/MWh]100Wind8060Day aheadNew GT40Day‐aheadPrice200© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann0
  33. 33. 33Tack så mycketTel: +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax: +49 (030) 314 269 08georg.erdmann@tu‐berlin.de© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmanngeorg.erdmann@prognoseforum.de
  34. 34. 34Research Profile of „Energy Systems“(Stochastic)InvestmentsWind and PV(Stochastic)Systems Analysis,Econometrics …BusinessstrategiesPricesInvestmentsCCSRegulationpowerMarketsgEnergyInnovationsHydrogenand fuel cellsSocialwelfareEnergysecurityPower-to-gasEnergy lawsBio fuelsCompetitionPower to gasCO2 allowancesIndustrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics© Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannPublic Choice …

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