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Social Desirability Effects in Market Research Effectiveness

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W2O Group's Seth Duncan and Kelley Sternhagen discuss when and where digital signals are better predictors of business outcomes.

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Social Desirability Effects in Market Research Effectiveness

  1. 1. Return to Table of Contents SOCIAL DESIRABILITY EFFECTS IN MARKET RESEARCH EFFECTIVENESS 9.19.2016
  2. 2. MEET THE TEAM A BIT OF CONTEXT THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL CASE STUDIES CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS
  3. 3. MEET THE TEAM
  4. 4. MEET THE TEAM KELLEY STERNHAGEN Director, Analytics W2O Group SETH DUNCAN Chief Analytics Officer, W2O Group
  5. 5. A BIT OF CONTEXT
  6. 6. THE ALLURE OF DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA
  7. 7. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  8. 8. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  9. 9. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  10. 10. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  11. 11. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  12. 12. PEOPLE POST A RANGE OF POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EXPERIENCES ONLINE
  13. 13. SOCIAL MEASUREMENT CAN LACK ACTIONABILITY FOR MARKETERS
  14. 14. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  15. 15. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  16. 16. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  17. 17. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  18. 18. LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
  19. 19. LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
  20. 20. LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
  21. 21. THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL
  22. 22. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
  23. 23. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… BOX OFFICE RECEIPTS (Asur & Huberman, 2010; Noseworthy, 2013; Panaligan & Chen, 2013)
  24. 24. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… ELECTORAL OUTCOMES (DiGrazia et. al., 2013; Maldonado & Sierra, 2016; O’Connor et. al., 2010; Tumasjan et. al., 2010)
  25. 25. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS (Ginsberg & Mohebbi, 2009)
  26. 26. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… ECONOMIC INDICES (Choi & Varian, 2012)
  27. 27. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
  28. 28. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES Young & McCoy, 2015
  29. 29. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011 Young & McCoy, 2015
  30. 30. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011 Reifman, Klein & Murphy, 1989 Visser & Krosnick, 1998 Tesch, 1983 Young & McCoy, 2015
  31. 31. CASE STUDIES
  32. 32. CASE STUDY #1: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR BOX OFFICE SALES
  33. 33. ABOUT THE STUDY
  34. 34. ABOUT THE STUDY GOALS
  35. 35. ABOUT THE STUDY SAMPLE
  36. 36. ABOUT THE STUDY INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
  37. 37. ABOUT THE STUDY DEPENDENT VARIABLES
  38. 38. ABOUT THE STUDY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
  39. 39. PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL AND DIGITAL METRICS ACROSS MOVIE-GOING AGE BANDS Digital is a better predictor of purchase behavior among those 18-44 39% 28% 28% 35% 54% 37% 55% 49% 41% 19% 13 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 Digital Metrics Non-Digital Metrics PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
  40. 40. CASE STUDY #2: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR AUTOMOTIVE SALES
  41. 41. ABOUT THE STUDY
  42. 42. ABOUT THE STUDY GOALS
  43. 43. ABOUT THE STUDY SAMPLE
  44. 44. ABOUT THE STUDY INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
  45. 45. ABOUT THE STUDY DEPENDENT VARIABLES
  46. 46. ABOUT THE STUDY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
  47. 47. PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR HIGH PRICE AUTOMOBILES Lower predictive value for intent to purchase among younger audiences suggests aspirational responses 27% 24% 25% 38% 36% 10% 13% 14% 14% 15%14% 12% 13% 15% 15% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 Behavioral Metrics Survey (Intent) PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION Conversational Metrics
  48. 48. PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR MID-PRICED AUTOMOBILES 12% 18% 22% 19% 19% 30% 32% 30% 30% 31% 52% 45% 43% 45% 45% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 Survey (Intent) PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION Digital and social signals far exceed prediction values for self-reported intent Behavioral Metrics Conversational Metrics
  49. 49. PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR LOW-PRICED AUTOMOBILES Results suggest those with more financial flexibility could be exhibiting self-monitoring around intent to make fiscally responsible choice 37% 31% 26% 26% 26% 51% 65% 71% 71% 70% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 Digital & Social Metrics Survey (Intent) PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
  50. 50. CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS
  51. 51. SITUATIONS WHERE SELF- MONITORING IS LIKELY BRANDS THAT FALL INTO LOWER PRICE TIERS SITUATIONS WHERE DIGITAL AND SOCIAL CAN ADD ADDITIONAL PREDICTIVE VALUE
  52. 52. Return to Table of Contents THANK YOU

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