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Perfect Storm or Perfect Opportunity for Higher Education


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This panel of higher education policy leaders will present a forecast of several critical trends that will have an enormous impact on higher education in the not-so-distant future. Access to postsecondary education and degree completion for this country's under-represented minority student population is a priority in this country. Some states are forecasting significant declines in college-going rates, while others are facing a swell in new student demand. Public financing for higher education has been in a crisis mode for several years in many states.
The hope of new technologies, such as broadband networks, is exciting – but how will new applications be funded?

David Longanecker, President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (CO)
Bill Harvey, Executive Director, International Reading Association (DE)
Dennis Jones, President, National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (CO)

Published in: Education, Economy & Finance
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Perfect Storm or Perfect Opportunity for Higher Education

  1. 1. The Challenge of Higher Expectations & Constrained Resources presented to WCET Annual Meeting Denver, Colorado October 23, 2009
  2. 2. The Reality of Higher Expectations <ul><li>State Level Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Double the numbers in Arizona, Colorado, & Kentucky </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Competitiveness in Minnesota and Texas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>40-40-20 in Oregon </li></ul></ul>“ By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world” - President Obama, 2/24/09
  3. 3. Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD Countries, 2006 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2008 slide
  4. 4. Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S., 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) slide
  5. 5. Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - U.S. & Leading OECD Countries Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 slide
  6. 6. Closing the Gap - Number of Degrees Required Beyond Current Production
  7. 7. slide Current Annual Degree Production – 2,252,212 Additional Annual Degree Production Needed – 150,528 per Year Associate and Bachelors Degrees Needed to Become the Most Educated Country by 2020 Increase in State and Local Funding at Current Cost per FTE Note: Assumes private institutions will maintain current share
  8. 8. Annual Increase in Degree Production Required to Meet the Goal – 11.7 Million Additional Degrees by 2020 Adjusting for Current Levels of Educational Attainment and Population Growth by State
  9. 9. How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS slide Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production Additional Degrees from Population Growth Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)
  10. 10. Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees. 1,333,645 893,504
  12. 12. The Flow of Funds - State Federal Government Student Aid Federal Government Tax Policy Appropriations/Grants Student Aid Tuition Scholarships & Waivers Available State and Local Govt. Funds Higher Education Students Institutions Economy <ul><li>K-12 </li></ul><ul><li>Corrections </li></ul><ul><li>Health Care </li></ul><ul><li>Other Govt. </li></ul>Stimulus Funds
  13. 13. Additional Annual Costs at Current Funding Levels Per Student to States & Localities to Reach Benchmark Keeping Tuition the Same 6,228 6,255 (Dollars in Millions) U.S. = 31 Billion slide
  14. 14. Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016 slide Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009
  15. 15. After stimulus wanes, gaps could approximate 4% of spending, or $70 billion, even under the “Low-Gap” Scenario Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 slide
  16. 16. After stimulus wanes, gaps could approach 7% of spending or $120 billion under the “High-Gap” scenario Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 slide
  17. 17. Recognize that the big population growth will be in students of color. In the main these will be individuals of modest means. <ul><li>Therefore there are real limits as to how high tuition can go before price affects participation and completion. </li></ul>slide
  18. 18. Change in Population Age 25-44 By Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025 Source: U.S. Census Bureau slide … 2,689,700 … 1,044,516
  19. 19. Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)
  20. 20. Percent of Children Ages 0 to 17 Living in Families with Less than a Living Wage (2007) Source: 2007 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples) Slide
  21. 21. For More Information <ul><li>Dennis Jones [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>and visit </li></ul><ul><li>NCHEMS Information Center for Higher Education Policymaking and Analysis </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>slide