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Presenta(on	
  to	
  Arncliffe	
  
community	
  mee(ng	
  on	
  
WestConnex,	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Corona'on	
  Hall	
  
Wednes...
M5
M7
M2
M4
F3
M1
Motorway development in Sydney
M5
M7
M2
M4
F3
M1
Motorway development in Sydney
CHOKEPOINT	
  
Opera'ng	
  at	
  capacity	
  	
  
since	
  2005	
  	
  
(...
Source:	
  M4	
  East	
  Environmental	
  Impact	
  Statement:	
  Appendices	
  A–G	
  Volume	
  2A	
  —	
  
Appendix	
  G...
Figure 1.1 Local context of the project
Source:	
  M4	
  East	
  Environmental	
  Impact	
  Statement:	
  Appendices	
  A–...
This section describes the distribution in East-West traffic and demonstrates how this
distribution changes with the M4 Wi...
Source:	
  WestConnex	
  M4	
  Widening	
  Environmental	
  Impact	
  Statement	
  —	
  Appendix	
  D:	
  traffic	
  
and	
 ...
WestConnex M4 Widening 144
Traffic and transport working paper
Figure 7-9: Screenline to investigate changes in east-west ...
Source:	
  WestConnex	
  M4	
  Widening	
  Environmental	
  Impact	
  Statement	
  —	
  Appendix	
  D:	
  traffic	
  
and	
 ...
Source:	
  M4	
  East	
  Environmental	
  Impact	
  Statement:	
  Appendices	
  A–G	
  Volume	
  2A	
  —	
  
Appendix	
  G...
M4	
  Motorway	
  link	
  in	
  Sydney	
  
M4	
  Mays	
  Hill	
  to	
  Prospect	
  
15	
  May	
  1992	
  
M4 Motorway &
Great Western Hwy
Annual average daily traffic on M4 Motorway & Great Western Hwy
Opening of motorway section...
The	
  ‘func'onal	
  balance’	
  between	
  
public	
  &	
  private	
  transport	
  
1.  Public	
  transport	
  operates	
...
Source:	
  M4	
  East	
  Environmental	
  Impact	
  Statement:	
  Appendices	
  A–G	
  Volume	
  2A	
  —	
  
Appendix	
  G...
Dr Michelle Zeibots on why WestCONnex won't work
Dr Michelle Zeibots on why WestCONnex won't work
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Dr Michelle Zeibots on why WestCONnex won't work

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Dr Michelle Zeibots of the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures explains why WestCONnex won't work. Topics covered include how new motorways and roads induce demand and fail to ease congestion; how tolls push drivers onto non-tolled roads; why improving public transport is more effective; and more.

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Dr Michelle Zeibots on why WestCONnex won't work

  1. 1. Presenta(on  to  Arncliffe   community  mee(ng  on   WestConnex,         Corona'on  Hall   Wednesday  30  March,  2016     Dr  Michelle  Zeibots  MPIA  CMILT   Research  Director   Ins'tute  for  Sustainable  Futures  
  2. 2. M5 M7 M2 M4 F3 M1 Motorway development in Sydney
  3. 3. M5 M7 M2 M4 F3 M1 Motorway development in Sydney CHOKEPOINT   Opera'ng  at  capacity     since  2005     (~  144,000–142,000  AADT)   CHOKEPOINT   Opera'ng  at  capacity  since   2002     (~  128,000–134,000  AADT)  
  4. 4. Source:  M4  East  Environmental  Impact  Statement:  Appendices  A–G  Volume  2A  —   Appendix  G:  traffic  and  transport  assessment.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  1-­‐3.   Figure 1.2 WestConnex The tunnel dive structures would start at the centre of the M4, west of the existing pedestrian footbridge over the M4 at Pomeroy Street, and would continue underground to the north of the existing M4 and Parramatta Road, before crossing beneath Parramatta Road at Broughton Street at
  5. 5. Figure 1.1 Local context of the project Source:  M4  East  Environmental  Impact  Statement:  Appendices  A–G  Volume  2A  —   Appendix  G:  traffic  and  transport  assessment.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  1-­‐2.  
  6. 6. This section describes the distribution in East-West traffic and demonstrates how this distribution changes with the M4 Widening project. Table 7-2 shows the number of times (in thousands) a vehicle passes the line (called a ‘screenline’) described below in Figure 7-9 on a typical weekday. Figure 7-9: Screenline to investigate changes in east-west traffic distribution The change in traffic volumes detailed in Table 7-2 shows that the M4 Widening would bring about some growth in traffic on Parramatta Road and Victoria Road. This is primarily due to users changing their travel routes to avoid paying the new toll. There is also anticipated growth in the use of the M2 Motorway. An analysis of the impact on intersection performance in the M4 Motorway corridor as a result of this redistribution is performed in Section 7.4. Table 7-2: Screenline volumes, Base ‘do minimum’ and M4 Widening Number of weekday vehicles Source:  WestConnex  M4  Widening  Environmental  Impact  Statement  —  Appendix  D:  traffic   and  transport  working  paper.  Working  Paper  No.  4.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  144.  
  7. 7. Source:  WestConnex  M4  Widening  Environmental  Impact  Statement  —  Appendix  D:  traffic   and  transport  working  paper.  Working  Paper  No.  4.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  11.   Chapter 1: Introduction WestConnex M4 Widening 11 Traffic and transport working paper Figure 1-4: Location of the project Source: WDA, 2014
  8. 8. WestConnex M4 Widening 144 Traffic and transport working paper Figure 7-9: Screenline to investigate changes in east-west traffic distribution The change in traffic volumes detailed in Table 7-2 shows that the M4 Widening would bring about some growth in traffic on Parramatta Road and Victoria Road. This is primarily due to users changing their travel routes to avoid paying the new toll. There is also anticipated growth in the use of the M2 Motorway. An analysis of the impact on intersection performance in the M4 Motorway corridor as a result of this redistribution is performed in Section 7.4. Table 7-2: Screenline volumes, Base ‘do minimum’ and M4 Widening Number of weekday vehicles Road Without M4 Widening (Base ‘do minimum’) (2021) M4 Widening (2021) Difference M4 Motorway 179,620 114,890 -64,730 Parramatta Road 43,990 59,370 15,380 M2 Motorway 118,050 123,940 5,890 Victoria Road 60,440 70,250 9,810 Source: Jacobs SKM, WestConnex Road Traffic Model, 2014 Section 4.1.1 gave an overview of the previous M4 Motorway toll (which was removed in 2010). The data presented in Figure 4-1 shows that the toll removal coincided with a 23 per cent increase in typical weekday traffic volumes. Source:  WestConnex  M4  Widening  Environmental  Impact  Statement  —  Appendix  D:  traffic   and  transport  working  paper.  Working  Paper  No.  4.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  144.   402,100   368,450  
  9. 9. Source:  WestConnex  M4  Widening  Environmental  Impact  Statement  —  Appendix  D:  traffic   and  transport  working  paper.  Working  Paper  No.  4.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  145.   would be higher due to the absence of a cashback scheme. The implications of the toll associated with the M4 Widening project are discussed in more detail in section 7.9. Table 7-3 below shows the Full WestConnex scenario equivalent of Table 7-2. It shows a reduced impact on Parramatta Road and Victoria Road compared to the M4 Widening scenario as the broader network becomes more congested and WestConnex is completed, increasing the travel time savings offered by the M4 Widening project and the broader WestConnex scheme. Table 7-3: Screenline volumes, Future ‘do minimum’ and Full WestConnex scheme Number of weekday vehicles Road Without WestConnex (Future ‘do minimum’) (2031) Full WestConnex (2031) Difference M4 Motorway 194,180 168,760 -25,420 Parramatta Road 52,030 62,490 10,460 M2 Motorway 140,430 140,840 410 Victoria Road 68,250 75,770 7,520 Source: Jacobs SKM, WestConnex Road Traffic Model, 2014 7.3 Travel times This section describes the modelled travel times on the M4 Motorway and Parramatta Road between Church Street and Homebush Bay Drive for the morning peak, inter peak and evening peak time periods. The Base and Future ‘do minimum’ scenarios travel times are compared to those with M4 Widening and Full WestConnex scenarios travel times respectively. As in Chapter 6, the travel time graphs presented in this section represent westbound trips with lines with a positive gradient (go up to the right) and eastbound trips are represented with lines with a negative gradient (go up to the left). It should be noted that vertical axis 454,890   450,860  
  10. 10. Source:  M4  East  Environmental  Impact  Statement:  Appendices  A–G  Volume  2A  —   Appendix  G:  traffic  and  transport  assessment.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  1-­‐2.   Sydney  Harbour  Bridge  opera'ng  at  Level  Of  Service  E  (1986–1991)  
  11. 11. M4  Motorway  link  in  Sydney   M4  Mays  Hill  to  Prospect   15  May  1992  
  12. 12. M4 Motorway & Great Western Hwy Annual average daily traffic on M4 Motorway & Great Western Hwy Opening of motorway section (15 May 1992) M4 monitoring site GWH monitoring site Opening  of  Mays  Hill  to  Prospect   M4  sec'on  (15  May  1992)  
  13. 13. The  ‘func'onal  balance’  between   public  &  private  transport   1.  Public  transport  operates  to  a  fixed  speed  —  a  'metable.     2.  Roads  operate  to  variable  speeds  determined  by  car   numbers.   3.  Most  people  will  take  whichever  transport  op'on  is   quickest.  If  public  transport  is  quicker,  they'll  catch  a  train   or  bus,  and  the  number  of  people  won’t  change  the  speed.     4.  If  driving  is  quicker,  people  will  use  their  car.  The  more  who   do  this,  the  slower  the  road  network  speed  becomes.   5.  People  who  shih  between  modes  in  pursuit  of  the  quickest   op'on  are  the  reason  why  public  transport  speeds   determine  road  speeds.    
  14. 14. Source:  M4  East  Environmental  Impact  Statement:  Appendices  A–G  Volume  2A  —   Appendix  G:  traffic  and  transport  assessment.  NSW  Government,  Sydney,  p.  10-­‐9.   WestConnex M4 East 10-16 WestConnex Delivery Authority Traffic and Transport Assessment Table 10.14 2031 AM peak intersection operational performance summary – eastern clusters ('do minimum' vs 'do something') ‘Do minimum’ ‘Do something’ Cluster Intersection Passenger car unit (PCU) Average delay (seconds) Level of service (LoS) Passenger car unit (PCU) Average delay (seconds) Level of service (LoS) 5 Harris Street | Queens Road 2948 32 C 2773 32 C Great North Road | Queens Road 3767 170 F 3614 111 F Great North Road | Ramsay Road 2840 495 F 2740 461 F Ramsay Road | Fairlight Street 3498 539 F 3093 476 F Great North Road | Lyons Road 4542 381 F 4414 286 F 6 Parramatta Road | Harris Road 5275 35 C 2669 26 B Parramatta Road | Croydon Road 6346 46 D 3825 30 C Parramatta Road | Great North Road 6716 142 F 4394 223 F Parramatta Road | Frederick Street 7775 258 F 6130 71 F Parramatta Road | Bland Street 5221 25 B 3278 24 B Wattle Street | Ramsay Street 5455 385 F 3992 63 E Dobroyd Parade | Waratah Avenue 3724 19 B 2947 10 B Dobroyd Parade | Timbrell Drive 5240 45 D 5247 249 F 7 Hume Highway | Frederick Street 5137 575 F 4651 331 F 8 Parramatta Road | Dalhousie Street 4426 30 C 4141 22 B Parramatta Road | Hume Highway 6597 139 F 5420 96 F Parramatta Road | Sloane Street 6831 40 C 5486 45 C 9 Parramatta Road | Flood Street 6051 83 F 4876 57 E Parramatta Road | Norton Street 5186 110 F 4154 45 D Parramatta Road | Crystal Street 5607 414 F 4604 33 C (Source: AECOM)

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