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The East african oil & gas market 2013 2023


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The East african oil & gas market 2013 2023

  1. 1. Page 75www.visiongain.comThe East African Oil & Gas Market2013-20234.6.3 Ugandan Exploration and Production MarketIn 2011 Tullow completed a$2.9bn farmout of itsUgandan acreage and willnow develop its 4 Ugandanblocks in cooperation withCNOOC and Total S.A.which both hold a 33.3percent share in each block.Tullow originally expected tobegin production in Ugandain 2015 but the project wasfaced by several delays andthe three companies arecurrently aiming for initialoutput of around 20,000barrels per day by 2017from the blocks on theshores of Lake Albert, whichshould rise to 230,000 bpdby 2020. Several othercompanies have been activein Ugandan in the past. Mostrecently DominionPetroleum and TowerResources where active in Uganda but relinquished their licences in 2012.The Ugandan government has repeatedly stated that it is looking to auction off new licensing areasto build on recent success made in the country. Currently, the government of president Museveni isplanning to reform the Ugandan upstream sector and will likely proceed with the sale of new blocksonce reforms governing the oil and gas sector have been implemented. Table 4.30 gives anoverview of the five blocks currently designated for commercial production. Focus for 2013 will beon the Total operated block where the company announced it would spend $650m this year alone.Figure 4.21 Ugandan Licence BlocksSource: Ugandan Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development
  2. 2. Page 78www.visiongain.comThe East African Oil & Gas Market2013-20234.7 Kenyan Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023Table 4.33, Figures 4.22 and 4.23 show visiongain’s forecast for the Kenyan oil & gas market overthe next ten years.2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013-23Capex $m 150 441 707 1,280 1,581 2,014 1,813 1,971 2,203 2,511 2,971 3,363 20,853AGR (%) 193.8 60.4 81.0 23.5 27.4 -10.0 8.7 11.8 14.0 18.3 13.22018-23 13.222.532.7CAGR (%) 2013-18CAGR (%) 2013-23-50%0%50%100%150%200%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023AGRCapex$mYearSource: Visiongain 2013Table 4.33 Kenyan Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%, CAGR%,Cumulative)Source: Visiongain 2013Figure 4.22 Kenyan Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%)
  3. 3. Page 104www.visiongain.comThe East African Oil & Gas Market2013-2023In the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 ranking Ethiopia was the third best East African country,behind Uganda and Kenya. In the Global Competitiveness Report and the Corruption PerceptionIndex it was ranked second best in East Africa. The Governance Indicators further support the casethat Ethiopia, despite severe problems with security and political stability, has done a better jobthan most countries in the region with regard to establishing a stable business environment throughefficient institutions and comparatively low levels of corruption.4.9.3 Ethiopian Oil & Gas Market SummaryEthiopia will remain the smallest market throughout the forecast period. While it has proven gasreserves these are located in one of the most remote and dangerous areas in the country andexploration in the Ogaden region will thus progress very slowly. Currently, Tullow is the onlycompany actively drilling in Ethiopia. The company’s well near the southern border with Kenyashows similar geographical characteristics and the company is hopeful that it will encounter oil richplays. Apart from Tullow most companies are in the early stages of development and will only startdrilling in the coming years. Ethiopia possesses both gas and oil potential and exploration willincrease significantly over the next decade. With the current security and economic situation in thecountry however the oil and gas market will trail behind the rest of East Africa for the foreseeablefuture. Table 4.55 provides and overview of the current companies active in Ethiopia and thelicence blocks they are operating on while Table 4.56 lists the major drivers and restraints of theEthiopian oil and gas market.Operator Block km2 Other Companies StatusSouthwestEnergyGambellaBasin 17,000 full tensor gravity & magnetic surveysTullow Oil South Omo 29,465Africa Oil (30%)Marathon Oil (20%)started drilling Sabisa-1 in December2012FalconPetroleum AB1 seismic surveyFalconPetroleum AB4, AB7New Age 7, 8 23,162Afren (30%) AfricaOil (30%) Exploration drilling in2013Africa Oil Adigala 27,193Africa Oil Rift Basin Area 42,519 Environmental Impact AssessmentPexco 18, 19, 21SouthwestEnergy Jimma 13,000 PSA awaiting approval of ministrySouthwestEnergy 9, 9A, 13 29,000A 3-well drilling program is scheduledfor 2013-2014Table 4.55 Ethiopian Licence Blocks (Operator, Block, km2, Other Companies, Status)Source: Visiongain 2013
  4. 4. Page 109www.visiongain.comThe East African Oil & Gas Market2013-20236. Major Companies in the East African Oil & Gas MarketFigure 6.1 Major Companies in the East African Market 2013-2023 RankingTier 1• Anadarko• BG Group• DAR Petroleum OperatingCompany Ltd• ENI• Sasol• Statoil• Total S.A.• Petronas• Shell• Sudd PetroleumOperating Company Ltd• Africa Oil Corp.• Apache Energy• CNOOC• CNPC• Greater Pioneer Operating Company• Heritage Oil• Maurel & Prom• Ophir Energy• PanAfrican Energy• PetrobrasTier 2Tier 3• Imara Energy• Jacka Resources• Kalila Energi• MotherlandIndustries Ltd• New Age Ltd• NdovuResources• Pacific SeaboardInvestments• Petrodel• Adamantine Energy• Afren plc• Antrim Energy Inc.• A-Z Petroleum,• Beach Energy• Camac• Dodsal• Edgo Energy• Falcon Petroleum• FAR Limited• Hydrotanz• Pexco• Rift Energy• Simba Energy• Sohi Gas Dodori• Sohi Gas Lamu• Southwest Energy• Star Petroleum• Swala Energy• Taipan Resources• VanoilSource: Visiongain 2013
  5. 5. Page 122www.visiongain.comThe East African Oil & Gas Market2013-20236.2 Tier Two Company OverviewAfrica Oil Corporation• Operator of two blocks in Ethiopia; 30 percent share in Tullow’s South Omo block• First well on South Omo encountered hydrocarbons• 2 more wells on South Omo block planned for 2013• Environmental Impact Assessment for Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia• Operator of Block 10BB in Kenya and working interest in 4 of Tullow’s Blocks in Kenya• Blocks 10BB and 13T encountered 100 and 30 metres of net oil pay respectively• Tullow and Africa Oil plan to drill at least a further 5 exploration wells on 10BB and at least4 on 13T in 2013Operator Block km2 Other companies CountryTullow Oil South Omo 29,465 Africa Oil (30%), Marathon Oil (20%) EthiopiaAfrica Oil Adigala 27,193 EthiopiaAfrica Oil Rift Basin Area 42,519 EthiopiaAfrica Oil 9 29,593 Marathon Oil (50%) KenyaAfrica Oil 10BB 8,835 Tullow Oil (50%) KenyaTullow Oil 10A 14,597 Africa Oil (20%) KenyaTullow Oil 10BA 21,088 Africa Oil (50%) KenyaTullow Oil 12A 20,341 Africa Oil (20%), Marathon Oil (15%) KenyaTullow Oil 13 T 6,298 Africa Oil (50%) KenyaApache Energy• Holds licence area L8 offshore Kenya; 5,114km2• Mbawa-1 drilled first well in Q4/2012; encountered 52 metres of gas• Will analyse data to determine future exploration activities• 2 appraisal wells planned in 2013CNOOC• Holds 33.3% interest in 4 Ugandan blocks• Will develop Ugandan oil reserves in cooperation with Total and Tullow• Operator of Block EA3A• No drilling planned on EA3A in 2013Table 6.16 Africa Oil’s East African Operations Overview (Operator, Block, km2,Other Companies, Country)Source: Visiongain 2013