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Future of the field: likelihood ratios

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Hughes, V. (2018) Future of the field: likelihood ratios. Paper to be presented at IAFPA 2018, University of Huddersfield. 29 July-1 August 2018. *Part of the Future of the Field panel discussion session

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Future of the field: likelihood ratios

  1. 1. Panel Discussion Session - IAFPA 30th July 2018 Future of the field Likelihood ratios Vincent Hughes
  2. 2. Where have we come from?
  3. 3. Where are we now?
  4. 4. Where are we going?
  5. 5. Speech tech/ ASR Linguistics/ Phonetics FSS research FSS casework End-users
  6. 6. Speech tech/ ASR Linguistics/ Phonetics FSS research FSS casework End-users
  7. 7. Speech tech/ ASR Linguistics/ Phonetics FSS research FSS casework End-users
  8. 8. Speech tech/ ASR Linguistics/ Phonetics FSS research FSS casework End-users
  9. 9. • holistic LR – end of ‘componential’ approach – score-based approaches (??) • speaker-specific system testing – more ‘forensically realistic’ • fully Bayesian methods – incorporating uncertainty into the LR – more transparent conclusion for user • make LRs more accessible – e.g. SAILR (see Aitken 2018)
  10. 10. Speech tech/ ASR Linguistics/ Phonetics FSS research FSS casework End-users
  11. 11. an appropriate conclusion that users don’t understand OR an inappropriate conclusion that users do understand
  12. 12. • ‘investment’ in the framework – we need to engage more with users • issues with lawyers – can’t understand v. won’t understand • better education – e.g. RSS Practitioner guides, Royal Society Primers for Courts • more research on user understanding – effect on probability of miscarriages of justice
  13. 13. Speech tech/ ASR Linguistics/ Phonetics FSS research FSS casework End-users
  14. 14. • acknowledge many end users – see Hughes and Rhodes (2018) • improve interfaces for different users – e.g. verbal scales • explain that evidence is conditional – LR = answer to a specific question – changing the question changes the answer • being explicit about assumptions
  15. 15. Thank you! vincent.hughes@york.ac.uk @VinceH_Forensic

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