Fit for the Future?

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Bill Gething, architect and chair, BRE Global Sustainability Board

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Fit for the Future?

  1. 1. Specifying Low Carbon Buildings Fit for the Future? Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture October 2010
  2. 2. What future? Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC 7 High (A1F1) 6 Med 5 30% coastal wetlands lost (A1B) 4 Low 3 (B1) 30% extinction 2 1 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
  3. 3. Shaping the Future? Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr) 160 140 High 120 (A1F1) 100 80 Med 60 (A1B) 40 Low 20 (B1) World Stabilisation Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (-4%/ yr from 2016)
  4. 4. Facing up to a changing climate Hotter drier summers Wetter warmer winters Extreme events more likely Sea level rise
  5. 5. Facing up to a changing climate Hotter drier summers Wetter warmer winters Extreme events more likely Sea level rise
  6. 6. UK Climate Change Projections A probabilistic approach Median value Probability of change 1 2 3 4 5 Change in temperature
  7. 7. Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East 7 6 5 90% 4 67% 3 50% Likely Very Likely 33% 2 10% Low 1 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 1º C
  8. 8. Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East 7 6 5 Med 4 Zero Carbon Hub Recommended target 3 2 1 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2º C
  9. 9. Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East 7 High 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 3º C
  10. 10. 2020 2050 Zero Carbon Hub Recommended target +4 ºC 2 ºC (2003) 2080 +4>5 ºC 10% 10% 50% 90% 90%
  11. 11. Precipitation + Soil shrinkage 2050s Med 50% Summer Annual Winter
  12. 12. Precipitation + Soil shrinkage Xtra Lo 2050s Med 50% Xtra Hi Summer Annual Winter
  13. 13. Design agenda: Comfort Construction Water Context: Regional variation + geographic specifics Existing stock Low carbon imperative + infrastructure resilience Robustness/ maintenance Delight. Tactics: Behavioural adaptation Timing Scale Competition, consensus and regulation.
  14. 14. Comfort Keeping cool - internal Climate issues & information Climate headlines Keeping cool - external Timescale Keeping warm
  15. 15. Comfort ? ps Ga Keeping cool - internal Climate issues & information Climate headlines Keeping cool - external Timescale Keeping warm
  16. 16. Climate headlines Comfort Keeping warm Keeping cool - internal Keeping cool - external Tr an sl Climate issues & information at io n? Timescale
  17. 17. Construction ? ps Ga Stability –above ground Stability –below ground Fixings and weatherproofing Materials behaviour Work on site
  18. 18. Water Water conservation Drainage Flooding Landscape
  19. 19. Modern methods of construction Deep plan Lightweight walls Large glazed openings Flat roofs Short life, high maintenance materials
  20. 20. Retrofitting comfort Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Kips Bay Apartments, New York, I M Pei 1961
  21. 21. “Designing in” comfort Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Lafayette Apartments, Detroit, I Mies vander Rohe 1961
  22. 22. Local Distinctiveness Moscow Izmir Sao Paulo Abu Dhabi Sydney Shanghai Harare
  23. 23. Resilience The Eastgate Centre, Harare Mick Pearce + Ove Arup, 1996
  24. 24. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
  25. 25. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad Photos: Morley von Sternberg
  26. 26. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad Photos: Morley von Sternberg
  27. 27. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad Photos: Morley von Sternberg
  28. 28. http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture bill@billgething.co.uk

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