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VCOSA - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2021 ISSUE

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Vietnam Cotton And Spinning Association
Cotton and Yarn Statistics
Dec
2021
MONTHLY REPORT Collected and Edited By:
Inform...
VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT
.
15/Fl., Block B, Viettel Complex...
VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT
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VCOSA - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2021 ISSUE

🔹 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION (VCOSA) introducing the monthly newsletter - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2021 ISSUE

🔹 Featuring:
- Report and Database: Import, export Statistics, import price database
- Upcoming events
- Statistics: Vietnam fiber & yarn import, Vietnam yarn export, cotton outlook
- etc.

📩 Contact VCSOA - info@vcosa.org.vn - for more details and subscription for monthly report

-----
VCOSA | VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION

#VCOSA #HiepHoiBongSoiVietNam #Cotton #Spinning #VCOSAReport

VCOSA - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2021 ISSUE

🔹 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION (VCOSA) introducing the monthly newsletter - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2021 ISSUE

🔹 Featuring:
- Report and Database: Import, export Statistics, import price database
- Upcoming events
- Statistics: Vietnam fiber & yarn import, Vietnam yarn export, cotton outlook
- etc.

📩 Contact VCSOA - info@vcosa.org.vn - for more details and subscription for monthly report

-----
VCOSA | VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION

#VCOSA #HiepHoiBongSoiVietNam #Cotton #Spinning #VCOSAReport

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VCOSA - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2021 ISSUE

  1. 1. Vietnam Cotton And Spinning Association Cotton and Yarn Statistics Dec 2021 MONTHLY REPORT Collected and Edited By: Information & Communication Dept. www.vcosa.vn
  2. 2. VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT . 15/Fl., Block B, Viettel Complex Tower, 285 CMT8 Str, Ward 12, District 10, Hochiminh City, Vietnam. Hotline: 84-902379490, Email: info@vcosa.org.vn Account VND: 0071 0055 969 15, USD: 0071 3755 969 98 At Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City Branch. Swift code: BFTVVNVX007 Ho Chi Minh city, December 28th, 2021 MONTHLY REPORT December 2021 Contents Report and Database ...............................................................................................................1 Monthly Import Statistics ..................................................................................................................................1 Monthly Export Statistics...................................................................................................................................5 Monthly Import Price Database ......................................................................................................................8 VCOSA’s event.............................................................................................................................9 Remarkable information .................................................................................................................................10 Domestic market.............................................................................................................................................. 10 Global market................................................................................................................................................... 10 An update on export performance..............................................................................................................11 Vietnam's exports of fibers and yarns will reach $5.2-5.3 billion in 2021. ...................................................... 11 An update on import performance.............................................................................................................13 Import price of raw cotton fell again ............................................................................................................... 13 The price of imported raw yarns decreased slightly........................................................................................ 16 Import price of raw fiber continues to decrease slightly ................................................................................. 19 Cotton Outlook 12-2021..................................................................................................................................22 Source ........................................................................................................................................26 Reference from Newspapers..............................................................................................26 India's cotton and cotton yarn prices are rising...................................................................................26 China market overview in 2021...................................................................................................................27
  3. 3. VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT
  4. 4. VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT
  5. 5. Page | 1 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Report and Database Cotton Fiber, Cotton Yarn, Cotton Fabric imports and exports are covered in monthly report. Monthly price database includes latest data per market, quantity, unit price, border and trade terms with per product category. Monthly Import Statistics Items November-2021 Compare last month (%) 11 months 2021 Compare last period (%) Q’ty (1,000 MT) Value (Mil. USD) Q’ty Value Q’ty (1,000 MT) Value (Mil. USD) Q’ty Value Cotton 128.2 281.1 2.1 12.0 1,569.5 2,988.9 17.3 43.6 Fiber & Yarn 94.6 223.0 29.2 22.5 981.4 2,295.0 5.1 28.3 Fabric - 1,337.7 - 21.4 - 12,953.1 - 21.7 Accessories - 551.5 - 25.7 - 5,736.0 - 19.1 TOTAL - 2,393.2 - 20.4 - 23,973.0 - 28.2 Generally, in the first 11 months of 2021, the amount of cotton imported to Vietnam is 1.57 million tons, up 17.3% over the same period last year, worth nearly 2.99 billion USD, up 43.6% over the same period last year. The amount of fiber imported to Vietnam was more than 981 thousand tons, up 5.1% over the same period last year, worth more than 2.29 billion USD, up 28.3% over the same period last year.
  6. 6. Page | 2 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT According to preliminary data in November 2021, cotton imports reached 128.2 thousand tons, up 2.1% over the previous month. The amount of imported fibers and yarns was 94.6 thousand tons, up 29.2% compared to October. 111.7 128.6 123.5 102.1 176.3 175.3 158 145.5 140.5 133.6 159.3 125.6 128.2 101.0 113.4 112.2 74.6 117.9 103.2 93.8 92.9 91 70.7 60.6 73.2 94.6 - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 1,000 MT Vietnam Cotton, Fiber & Yarn Import 11 Months 2021 (1,000 MT) Cotton Fiber & Yarn - 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Million USD Vietnam Import 11 Months 2021 (Mil. USD) Cotton Fiber & Yarn Fabric Accessories
  7. 7. Page | 3 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT According to preliminary data in November 2021, imported cotton volume is about 128.2 thousand tons, up 14.8% compared to 111.7 thousand tons of the same period last year. According to preliminary data in November 2021, imported fibers and yarns is about 94.6 thousand tons, down 6.3% compared to 101 thousand tons in November 2020. 81.0 151.1 160.5 141.2 127.0 118.0 121.1 120.6 108.7 95.1 111.7 128.6 123.5 102.1 176.3 175.3 158.0 145.5 140.5 133.6 159.3 125.6 128.2 - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Vietnam Cotton Import 11 Months 2021 (1,000 MT) 2020 2021 73.0 77.8 118.1 75.7 57.9 75.6 84.8 88.2 89.7 91.4 101.0 113.4 112.2 74.6 117.9 103.2 93.8 92.9 91.0 70.7 60.6 73.2 94.6 - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Vietnam Fiber & Yarn Import 11 Months 2021 (1,000 MT) 2020 2021
  8. 8. Page | 4 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT In 11 months of 2021, Vietnam imported cotton worth nearly 2.99 billion USD, up 43.6% over the same period last year; imported fibers and yarns worth more than 2.29 billion USD, up 28.3%; fabric imports of all kinds more than 12.95 billion USD, up 21.7%; the import value of raw materials for textiles, apparel and footwear increased by 19.1%, equivalent to more than 5.73 billion USD. 1,622.7 1,662.2 2,362.4 3,011.7 2,573.4 2,282.3 2,988.9 1,519.0 1,609.0 1,821.6 2,418.6 2,409.8 1,998.8 2,295.0 10,154.4 10,483.3 11,381.1 12,771.9 13,276.0 11,875.6 12,953.1 5,002.8 5,058.8 5,428.5 5,711.4 5,863.6 5,381.1 5,736.0 - 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 2015 2016 2017 2 0 1 8 2019 2020 11M2021 MILLION USD VIETNAM IMPORT FROM 2015 TO 11M2021 (MIL. USD) Cotton Fiber & Yarn Fabric Accessories
  9. 9. Page | 5 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Monthly Export Statistics Items Nov-2021 Compare last month (%) 11 months 2021 Compare last period (%) Q’ty (1,000 MT) Value (Mil. USD) Q’ty Value Q’ty (1,000 MT) Value (Mil. USD) Q'ty Value Yarn 157.3 512.3 6.3 9.4 1,769.1 5,077.9 13.8 53.3 Textile & Apparel (include fabric) - 3,044.6 - 15.2 - 29,141.7 - 8.0 - Fabric - 244.6 - 12.5 - 2,275.9 - 31.0 Accessories - 194.9 - 32.7 - 1,781.3 - 17.9 Technical Textile - 68.9 - -5.7 - 718.3 - 76.5 TOTAL - 3,820.7 - 12.9 - 36,719.2 - 38.9 Generally, in 11 months of 2021, Vietnam exported fibers and yarns reached more than 1.7 million tons, up 13.8% over the same period last year. Value reached 5.07 billion USD, up 53.3% over the same period last year. Fiber and yarn exports in November 2021 were worth 512.3 million USD, up 9.4% over the previous month; fabric exports reached 244.6 million USD, up 12.5%; raw materials for textile, leather and footwear with the value of 194.9 million USD, up 32.7%; technical textile exports decreased by 5.7%, equivalent to 68.9 million USD. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Million USD Vietnam Export 11 Months 2021 (Mil. USD) Yarn Fabric Accessories Technical Textile
  10. 10. Page | 6 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT 11 months of 2021, Vietnam's fiber and yarn exports were worth more than 5.07 billion USD, up 53.3% over the same period last year; fabric exports were worth 2.27 billion USD, up 31%; raw materials for textile, leather and footwear with a value of 1.78 billion USD, up 17.9%; technical textile exports increased by 76.5%, equivalent to 718.3 thousand USD. Vietnam's textile and apparel exports in November 2021 reached more than 3.04 billion USD, exceeding 15.2% over the previous month. 2,241.1 2,830.4 2,660.8 1,820.8 2,723.9 2,458.8 2,573.8 3,064.6 3,118.8 2,654.6 2,277.4 2,643.9 3,044.6 N O V - 2 0 D E C - 2 0 J A N - 2 1 F E B - 2 1 M A R - 2 1 A P R - 2 1 M A Y - 2 1 J U N - 2 1 J U L - 2 1 A U G - 2 1 S E P - 2 1 O C T - 2 1 N O V - 2 1 MILLION USD VIETNAM TEXTILE & APPAREL EXPORT 11 MONTHS 2021 (MIL. USD) 2,539.8 2,929.5 3,593.3 4,024.9 4,177.1 3,736.6 5,077.9 996.6 1,078.4 1,324.8 1,759.4 2,127.0 1,943.4 2,275.9 1,434.3 1,495.2 1,710.6 1,902.1 2,014.6 1,687.5 1,781.3 435.4 415.3 457.9 529.7 588.9 456.0 718.3 - 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11M2021 Vietnam Export from 2015 to 11M2021 (Mil. USD) Yarn Fabric Accessories Technical Textile
  11. 11. Page | 7 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Vietnam's yarn export in November 2021 reached 157.3 thousand tons, worth 512.3 million USD, up 6.3% in volume, 9.4% in value over the previous month. According to preliminary data for November 2021, textile and apparel exports reached more than 3.04 billion USD, up 35.9% compared to 2.24 billion USD in the same period last year. 170.8 180.2 164.5 125 194.2 163.7 167.1 171.8 175.6 156.3 144.9 148 157.3 368.9 390.4 394.6 311.5 511.1 464.1 473.1 489.3 517.9 481.1 453.4 468.1 512.3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 M11-20 M12-20 M1-21 M2-21 M3-21 M4-21 M5-21 M6-21 M7-21 M8-21 M9-21 M10-21 M11-21 Qty (1,000 MT) Value (Mil. USD) 2,470.4 2,233.9 2,338.6 1,609.6 1,866.9 2,601.9 3,041.2 2,966.0 2,883.3 2,561.0 2,241.1 2,830.4 2,660.8 1,820.8 2,723.9 2,458.8 2,573.8 3,064.6 3,118.8 2,654.6 2,277.4 2,643.9 3,044.6 JA N F E B MA R A P R MA Y JUN JUL A UG S E P OC T NOV DE C MILLION USD VIETNAM TEXTILE & APPAREL EXPORT 11 MONTHS 2021 (MIL. USD) 2020 2021
  12. 12. Page | 8 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Monthly Import Price Database Product Market Unit Q’ty Price ($US) Border Term Nov Cotton Hong Kong kg 91,193 1.11 Cat Lai CIF Week 1 Cotton USA kg 117,952 0.95 Cont Spitic CIF Week 1 Cotton UAE kg 98,104 0.64 Hai An CIF Week 1 Cotton Indonesia Kg 19,528 0.66 Cat Lai FOB Week 1 Cotton Netherlands kg 297,524 1.77 Cat Lai CIF Week 1 100% cotton yarn Korea Kg 19,860 2.78 Cat Lai CIF Week 1 Filament yarn Hong Kong kg 1,842 1.68 Huu Nghi DAF Week 1 100% cotton fabric Korea m2 3,903 0.88 Cat Lai CIF Week 1 Cotton Korea kg 44,533 1.36 Cat Lai CIF Week 1 Cotton USA kg 192,282 2.31 Cat Lai CFR Week 2 Cotton Taiwan kg 4,525 5.98 Cat Lai CIF Week 2 Cotton Singapore kg 20,680 1.83 Cat Lai CFR Week 2 100% cotton yarn Macau kg 1,550 8.40 New Port CIF Week 2 100% polyester fabric Korea m2 2,857 1.43 Tan Vu CIF Week 2 Cotton India kg 197,000 2.20 Lach Huyen CIF Week 2 Cotton India kg 97,515 2.19 Dinh Vu CIF Week 2 Cotton Indonesia kg 3,553 4.45 Tan Vu FOB Week 2 Cotton USA kg 197,043 1.99 Lach Huyen C&F Week 3 Cotton Benin kg 189,167 2.15 Dinh Vu Nam Hai CIF Week 3 Cotton Taiwan kg 4,830 5.98 Dinh Vu CIF Week 3 Cotton Argentina kg 23,628 2.06 Cat Lai CIF Week 3 Cotton Macau kg 19,658 2.25 Cat Lai C&F Week 3 100% polyester yarn Indonesia kg 39,229 0.75 Lach Huyen CIF Week 3 Filament yarn Hong Kong kg 1,713 1.68 Dinh Vu DDU Week 3 100% cotton fabric Korea m2 3,774 0.88 Cat Lai CIF Week 3 Cotton Malaysia kg 155,683 2.11 Green Port Vip CIF Week 3 Cotton Korea kg 1,634 6.75 Dinh Vu Nam Hai CIF Week 4 Cotton Hong Kong kg 91,209 1.11 Cat Lai CIF Week 4 Cotton USA kg 117,968 0.95 Cont Spitic CIF Week 4 Cotton UAE kg 98,120 0.64 Hai An CIF Week 4 Cotton Macau kg 766,880 1.83 Cat Lai CIF Week 4 Cotton Singapore kg 2,236 3.51 Dinh Vu CFR Week 4 Cotton Netherlands kg 297,540 1.77 Cat Lai CIF Week 4 100% polyester yarn Indonesia kg 39,374 0.75 Dinh Vu Nam Hai CIF Week 4 Filament yarn Hong Kong kg 1,858 1.68 Huu Nghi DAF Week 4
  13. 13. Page | 9 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT VCOSA’s event The 7th Vietnam Textile Summit organized by VCOSA in collaboration with ECV on December 2nd and 3rd 2021 Since its first appearance in early 2020, Covid-19 has been the biggest challenge facing the apparel industry, resulting in significant order cancellations, factory closures and supply chain disruptions. However, it is showing signs of recovery. According to the World Bank's Global Textile and Apparel Market Report, the total global textile and apparel demand is expected to increase from $594 billion in 2020 to $654 billion in 2021, up 10.1% year-on-year. In which, the import turnover of textiles and garments from the US - a major export market of Vietnam's textiles and garments - will increase by 20% over the same period to 115 billion USD. By taking advantage of its membership in several major free trade agreements, Vietnam is also one of the very few tier-one apparel suppliers that enjoys duty-free access to more than half of the import apparel market in the world. This includes the EU (through the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement) and Japan (CPTPP). Recently, the US Treasury Department removed Vietnam from its list of currency manipulators, a move that may reassure that the US may not impose new tariffs, quotas or restrictions on goods. Imported goods of Vietnam as part of a Section 301 investigation. The tax savings benefit gives “Made in Vietnam” garments a unique competitive advantage when prices become more sensitive during the pandemic. This conference focused on the latest global trade issues that will greatly impact the Vietnamese textile and garment industry such as the US-China trade war, the impact of COVID-19 on the Vietnamese textile and garment industry and the industry's supply chain, trade uncertainty, apparel sourcing shifts in new background, digital transformation of the apparel industry, sustainability and its importance to labor. In addition, there are also mentioned to international brands that want to enter Vietnam's domestic market. We are sure that the invited guests and representatives of domestic and foreign businesses have gained a lot of extremely useful and valuable information in the event.
  14. 14. Page | 10 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Remarkable information Domestic market o Import price of raw yarns l decreased slightly. China is the largest supplier of raw yarns to Vietnam in the first 10 months of 2021, accounting for over 60% of the total amount of yarn imported into Vietnam. o The average import price of raw fiber in October 2021 decreased for the 4th consecutive month since peaking in June 2021, due to lower input material prices. o Import price of raw cotton decreased again. The price of cotton imported into Vietnam in October 2021 averaged $1,998/ton, down $41/ton compared to September 2021 and up $518/ton compared to October 2020. o Vietnam's exports of fibers and yarns will reach $5.2-5.3 billion in 2021. o 2021 is considered a successful year for Vietnam's yarn industry when there is a sudden growth in both export volume and turnover. o Textile and garment exports recovered spectacularly. In 2021, it is estimated that the export value of the textile and garment industry will reach 39 billion USD, up 11.2% compared to 2020 and up 0.3% compared to 2019. o Despite being heavily and unprecedentedly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam's import and export turnover in 2020 still reached over 545 billion USD; It is forecasted that in 2021, it will surpass the USD 660 billion mark, bringing Vietnam into the group of 20 leading economies in terms of international trade. o Ho Chi Minh City attracted more than 3.4 billion USD of FDI after 11 months, down 10% over the same period. Global market o India's cotton and cotton yarn prices are rising. o World Cotton Production Higher in 2021/22. o China Leads 2021/22 Global Cotton Imports. o India's exports of textiles, including cotton yarn/fabric/textile products, handmade textile products from India increased 40.72% to $1.227 billion in November 2021. o Bangladesh's textile industry seeks investment in non-cotton sector. o China's apparel industry continues to expand in the first three quarters of 2021, reporting growth in production, revenue and profit. o Indonesia's textile industry is expected to recover in 2022. The production activity of the Indonesian textile and garment industry started to improve in October 2021 and is almost 80%.
  15. 15. Page | 11 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT An update on export performance Vietnam's exports of fibers and yarns will reach $5.2-5.3 billion in 2021. After nearly two years of gloomy business, Vietnam's yarn industry bounced back thanks to the recovery of world yarn prices, so Vietnam's fiber and textile exports have achieved positive growth. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's exports of textile fibers and yarns in October 2021 reached 148 thousand tons, with a turnover of 468 million USD, up 2.1% in volume and 3.3% in terms turnover compared to September 2021; down 19.1% in volume but up 23.1% in turnover compared to October 2020. In the first 10 months of 2021, Vietnam's export of textile fibers and yarns of all kinds reached 1.61 million tons, with a turnover of 4.56 billion USD, up 16.4% in volume and 55% in turnover compared to the same period last year; up 15.1% in volume and 32.2% in turnover over the same period in 2019. It can be seen that, in recent months, despite being affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam's export of textile fibers and yarns still achieved a turnover of over 400 million USD/month. The above result is obtained because while large labor-intensive industries such as textiles and garments, footwear, furniture... suffered from supply chain disruptions during the time Ho Chi Minh City and localities in the South implemented the distance. In recent times, the productivity of the yarn industry is still promoted thanks to the industry's characteristics of high automation, using few workers. Export of textile fibers and yarns in the first 10 months of 2021 grew at a double-digit rate compared to the time before the pandemic (the same period in the first 10 months of 2019), and increased sharply compared to the same period in 2020, showing that the supporting industry has been and is growing to take advantage of opportunities from new-generation Free Trade Agreements, helping Vietnam to boost exports of textiles and garments even more. With the recovery of production, the smooth resumption of the supply chain, the loosening of epidemic prevention and control measures, the convenient transportation of goods, and the continued increase in orders, especially with high momentum. As a result of yarn demand from major markets such as China and South Korea, Vietnam's exports of textile fibers and yarns in 2021 will reach $5.2-5.3 billion. Vietnam’s export fibers and yarns 10 months 2021 (thousand USD)
  16. 16. Page | 12 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Vietnam exports textile fibers and yarns of all kinds mainly to the Chinese market, accounting for 54.04% of total export turnover in the 10 months of 2021. Vietnam's exports of fibers, yarns and textiles to markets in the first 10 months of 2021 increased in many markets compared to the same period in 2020, in which, exports to China increased by 15% in volume and increased by 47.3% in turnover, in addition, exports to the markets of Korea, USA, Taiwan, Bangladesh... also increased strongly. Thus, together with other groups of garment materials and accessories (all kinds of fabrics, technical textile) the export of fiber and textile yarns of all kinds also grew well in the first 10 months of 2021. Vietnam's export fibers and yarns 10 months of 2021 Importer Oct-2021 Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct-2020 (%) 10 months 2021 Compared to 10M/2020 (%) Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Qty Value Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Total 148,010 468,139 2.1 3.3 -19.1 23.1 1,611,383 4,564,854 16.4 55.0 China 77,755 245,041 6.2 6.8 -22.4 11.4 871,196 2,466,774 15.0 47.3 Korea 14,455 50,577 -0.9 7.1 23.3 98.6 145,545 441,405 20.0 64.4 Bangladesh 4,750 24,996 -15.1 3.5 101.6 217.5 33,889 187,330 107.2 241.6 Taiwan 4,855 18,052 8.9 7.2 13.5 78.1 47,121 150,943 78.5 129.0 Indonesia 2,619 12,223 -1.8 -2.1 30.2 112.5 26,412 103,140 35.7 94.4 USA 9,991 10,768 1.0 -5.6 20.7 19.4 88,615 109,689 47.5 67.2 Pakistan 2,327 10,057 25.0 -0.5 -66.6 5.8 30,419 101,258 -6.7 102.2 Brazil 2,391 8,125 6.2 -22.7 -45.0 8.8 33,589 84,159 4.3 58.8 Colombia 1,933 7,448 15.5 12.3 -13.0 65.0 16,895 55,530 13.7 76.7 Thailand 2,331 6,933 2.1 -1.1 -47.3 -32.1 25,081 76,065 -16.5 0.1 Japan 2,184 6,373 -25.5 -24.3 -25.2 1.3 29,012 74,249 26.6 22.8 Hong Kong 598 5,393 -16.9 0.1 -73.5 -27.8 9,046 47,586 -51.8 -14.0 Turkey 1,205 4,845 53.3 73.3 -56.8 -6.2 17,014 70,150 -51.3 -1.2 India 2,010 4,818 26.3 2.1 -5.7 11.5 20,699 56,164 59.3 77.6 Egypt 1,205 4,406 39.3 47.0 -54.7 -14.6 14,007 39,754 -35.8 -7.8 Cambodia 1,064 3,819 -45.2 -50.4 -27.6 -6.6 17,259 62,632 56.7 115.9 Sri Lanka 468 3,158 -0.6 -13.1 -53.6 -15.1 6,838 39,765 42.3 124.3 Peru 1,284 3,042 16.7 15.2 0.9 41.5 7,213 16,617 42.1 81.8 Malaysia 836 2,902 3.0 13.2 -66.0 -47.8 14,577 45,755 -5.5 27.6 Italy 352 1,988 3.8 7.3 51.7 99.6 5,290 23,498 96.1 120.0 UK 2,093 1,898 25.0 22.4 -12.5 -7.4 19,303 17,574 7.1 12.0 Philippines 735 1,763 2.1 13.6 31.7 88.9 7,239 16,220 5.6 38.1 Romania 325 1,433 -21.7 -18.7 -62.2 -48.7 5,037 18,348 28.7 32.3 Chile 308 654 -65.7 -53.8 -33.3 -29.4 5,532 10,822 113.3 112.5 The average export price of Vietnam's fiber and textile yarns of all kinds in the months of 2021 increased compared to the same period in 2020, notably, the average export price of this item
  17. 17. Page | 13 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT followed an upward trend. In October 2021, the average export price of Vietnam's textile fibers and yarns reached $3,163 per ton, up 1.1% compared to September 2021 and up 52.2% compared to October 2020. In general, in the first 10 months of 2021, the average export price of Vietnam's textile fibers and yarns reached $2,832.9 per ton, up 33.2% over the same period in 2020. In the world market, yarn inventories in China and textile-producing countries have been exhausted, along with the US ban on importing products derived from Xinjiang cotton, which has had a strong impact on the supply and demand chains. yarn, which increases the demand for yarn. Since the beginning of the year, the price of cotton yarn has had the strongest increase (18- 20%), followed by poly-visco yarn (up 16-17%), poly yarn and poly-cotton blended yarn also increased by over 10%. The increase in international fiber and yarn prices has led to an increase in the export price of this item of Vietnam to the world over time. Export price of fibers and yarns in 2020-2021 An update on import performance Import price of raw cotton fell again According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, cotton imports to Vietnam in October 2021 reached 125.56 thousand tons, worth 250.92 million USD, down 21.2% in volume and 22.7% in value compared to September 2021; up 31.9% in volume and 78.2% in value compared to October 2020. In the first 10 months of 2021, cotton imports to Vietnam reached 1.44 million tons, worth 2.71 billion USD, up 17.5% in volume and 41.7% in value over the same period last year.
  18. 18. Page | 14 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Vietnam’s import cotton 10 months 2021 (thousand tons) In the first 10 months of 2021, the market for supplying raw cotton to Vietnam remains stable compared to the same period in 2020 with 11 markets. Notably, imports of imported raw cotton from markets mostly increased over the same period in 2020, except for imports from the US market which decreased. Specifically: The amount of cotton material imported from the US market into Vietnam in the first 10 months of 2021 reached 582 thousand tons, worth 1.12 billion USD, down 23.7% in volume and 7.3% in value over the same period 2020, accounting for 40.4% of total cotton imports. Second is the Brazilian market, with imports reaching 322 thousand tons, worth 588 million USD, up 32.2% in volume and 51.4% in value compared to 10 months of 2020. Particularly in October 2021, cotton imports from this market will reach 22.91 thousand tons, worth 43.95 million USD, down 26.6% in volume and 8.6% in value over the same period in 2020. Cotton imports from some other markets increased sharply compared to the same period in 2020 such as: from India increased by 97.7%; from Australia increased by 717%; from Ivory Coast increased by 118.5% in volume over the same period in 2020. Vietnam's import cottons in 10 months 2021 Exporter Oct-2021 Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct- 2020 (%) 10 months 2021 Compared to 10M/2020 (%) Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Qty Value Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Total 125,564 250,921 -21.2 -22.7 -34.8 67.4 1,441,878 2,708,771 17.5 41.7 USA 21,541 43,331 -62.5 -63.2 -49.8 -33.3 582,667 1,121,789 -23.7 -7.3 Brazil 22,916 43,952 81.1 72.5 -26.6 -8.6 322,314 588,678 32.2 51.4 Australia 47,342 102,951 -16.3 -14.2 62,192.0 240,726.0 188,345 394,015 717.0 865.4 India 9,606 13,667 13.2 1.9 -8.5 9.1 158,415 254,409 97.7 150.8 Ivory Coast 2,874 5,718 -13.0 -11.6 4.7 33.4 34,798 64,774 118.5 169.1 Argentina 9,122 18,738 64.6 68.0 408.2 651.7 25,723 49,934 70.7 139.6 Indonesia 1,373 1,386 28.2 26.7 83.8 90.9 9,795 11,642 49.8 73.2
  19. 19. Page | 15 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Exporter Oct-2021 Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct- 2020 (%) 10 months 2021 Compared to 10M/2020 (%) Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Qty Value Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Korea 217 253 70.9 19.6 53.9 13.9 2,837 4,684 86.2 106.2 Pakistan 161 215 120.5 122.5 228.6 230.8 1,395 1,972 -54.7 -50.2 China - 502 1,002 -64.3 -57.0 Taiwan - 30 183 -86.6 -53.2 About price: The price of cotton imported into Vietnam in October 2021 averaged 1,998 USD/ton, down 41 USD/ton compared to September 2021 and up 518 USD/ton compared to October 2020 (down 2.01%) compared to September 2021 but increased 35% over the same period in October 2020). Generally, for the first 10 months of 2021, the price of imported cotton to Vietnam averaged $1,879/ton, up 20.5% over the same period in 2020. Import price of cotton 10 months 2021 (USD/ton) The average price of imported cotton from all markets increased in the first 10 months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, with an increase rate ranging from 10-20%. In which, the lowest price of cotton material imported from Indonesia reached 1,189 USD/ton; from India reached 1,606 USD/ton and the import price from the highest market was Australia at 2,092 USD/ton. World cotton prices increased sharply in the first 10 months of 2021 due to increased demand in yarn producing countries after the global economy showed signs of recovery and low yarn inventories. World cotton prices have reached a 10-year high. And the price of Vietnam's imported cotton fell in October 2021. It is forecasted that Vietnam's raw cotton import price will decrease slightly next month but will remain at a high level. Opinion basis: The recent drop in cotton prices coincided with a decline in US cotton exports. Although the Covid-19 epidemic has had many negative effects on the global economy, the average export figures for the four weeks since October 2021 have been consistently higher than the averages for the same period last year. Strong demand for US cotton from China is one of the factors pushing up cotton prices. U.S. cotton inventories increased last season (up from 4.9 to 7.3 million bales between 2018/19 and
  20. 20. Page | 16 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT 2019/20). Another factor is the unfavorable weather situation in this year's crop in the US. According to a USDA report from September 2021, US cotton production in the 2020/21 crop decreased by about 3.4 million bales. Current US ending stocks for the 2020/21 crop are about 4.2 million bales. This stock is comparable to 2017/18 (when the NY/ICE index averaged 79 cents/lb) but above the average for the previous decade (from 2009/10 to 2016/17). A decrease in US cotton production is a factor that causes cotton prices to rise. The weather situation and production here are important factors affecting the price of cotton in 2021/22. In addition, drought occurred in West Texas, and La Nina occurred in the Pacific region. La Nina makes weather hotter and drier in the southern states of the United States, and could worsen drought conditions in West Texas. In addition, La Nina is also often accompanied by stronger and more hurricane activity in the Atlantic region. Any of the above developments will negatively affect US cotton production. US cotton export orders and deliveries are still increasing, but the main market is still China. China is expected to increase purchases of U.S agricultural products by about $7 billion in 2021. The combined effect of lower production and increased cotton imports from China means that the supply of US cotton is likely to be limited in 2022. However, US-China trade tensions are still present. If the trade deal is cancelled, that will have a huge impact on US cotton exports and global cotton prices next year. Import price of cotton 10 months 2021 Exporter Oct-2021 (USD/ton) Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct-2020 (%) 10 months 2021 (USD/ton) Compared to 10 months 2020 (%) Total 1,998 -2.0 156.8 1,879 129.8 USA 2,012 -1.9 32.7 1,925 20.5 Brazil 1,918 -4.7 24.5 1,826 14.6 Australia 2,175 2.6 286.6 2,092 18.2 India 1,423 -9.9 19.3 1,606 26.9 Ivory Coast 1,989 1.6 27.5 1,861 23.2 Argentina 2,054 2.1 47.9 1,941 40.4 Indonesia 1,010 -1.2 3.8 1,189 15.6 Korea 1,166 -30.0 -26.0 1,651 10.8 Pakistan 1,334 0.9 0.7 1,413 10.0 China 1,996 20.6 Taiwan 6,101 249.3 The price of imported raw yarns decreased slightly According to the statistics of the General Department of Customs, the import of raw yarn in October 2021 reached 52.25 thousand tons, worth 155.41 million USD, up 27.9% in volume and 17.9% in value compared to September 2021, down 14.4% in volume but up 10.6% in value compared to October 2020. In general, in the first 10 months of 2021, the import volume of this
  21. 21. Page | 17 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT item reached 606 thousand tons, worth 1.68 billion USD, up 15.4% in volume and 37.8% in value over the same period in 2020. Vietnam’s import yarn 10 months 2021 (thousand tons) China is the largest supplier of raw yarns to Vietnam in the first 10 months of 2021, accounting for over 60% of the total amount of yarn imported into Vietnam. Next is Taiwan, accounting for 14%, India accounted for 8.3%. In general, the import of raw yarns into Vietnam from key markets has grown at double-digit rates in the first 10 months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. In which, imports from the largest market are China up 13.66% in volume and 45.8% in value over the same period in 2020. Vietnam's import of yarns in 10 months 2021 Exporter 10 months 2021 Compared to 10 months 2020 (%) Proportion by qty (%) Qty Value Qty Value 10M2021 10M2020 (tons) (1,000 USD) Total 596,478 1,664,632 13.09 36.30 100.00 100.00 China 360,365 924,220 13.66 45.80 60.42 60.11 Taiwan 83,480 213,247 32.62 37.19 14.00 11.93 India 49,636 142,365 13.03 47.76 8.32 8.33 Korea 27,809 103,170 15.67 30.65 4.66 4.56 Indonesia 26,518 73,634 24.42 49.36 4.45 4.04 Hong Kong 7,714 48,109 8.12 -36.77 1.29 1.35 Thailand 10,037 33,685 9.40 7.25 1.68 1.74 Japan 3,252 32,194 -80.64 17.73 0.55 3.18 Singapore 1,796 14,149 22.93 29.26 0.30 0.28 Malaysia 6,332 10,200 -35.58 -3.54 1.06 1.86 USA 1,693 8,017 105.03 21.82 0.28 0.16 Pakistan 1,675 6,995 34.67 64.07 0.28 0.24 Italy 787 6,587 162.61 12.20 0.13 0.06 Turkey 1,120 4,646 -3.04 37.14 0.19 0.22
  22. 22. Page | 18 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Exporter 10 months 2021 Compared to 10 months 2020 (%) Proportion by qty (%) Qty Value Qty Value 10M2021 10M2020 (tons) (1,000 USD) Netherlands 135 3,216 61.67 -32.66 0.02 0.02 Macau 271 3,064 22.50 100.35 0.05 0.04 Bangladesh 2,557 2,960 -35.35 -26.46 0.43 0.75 Sri Lanka 344 2,792 11.64 9.17 0.06 0.06 Switzerland 2,086 2,228 145.14 182.41 0.35 0.16 Cameroon 1,011 2,130 0.17 Canada 62 1,540 90.16 175.26 0.01 0.01 Ivory Coast 652 1,374 229.71 348.45 0.11 0.04 Samoa 159 1,006 1,743.46 681.52 0.03 0.00 France 22 914 -89.74 103.01 0.00 0.04 Germany 183 803 69.27 74.80 0.03 0.02 Myanmar 80 662 1,252.82 2,946.74 0.01 0.00 Latvia 216 407 0.04 Belgium 66 383 166.43 270.36 0.01 0.00 UK 130 380 -33.17 -39.91 0.02 0.04 Mexico 18 285 1,466.62 875.05 0.00 0.00 Brazil 126 247 -88.42 -85.21 0.02 0.21 Israel 17 200 148.51 242.49 0.00 0.00 Belize 851 165 414.30 -62.80 0.14 0.03 Seychelles 29 142 140.14 140.14 0.00 0.00 Cuba 9 131 65.02 65.02 0.00 0.00 Andora 156 127 790.46 49.19 0.03 0.00 Cambodia 127 117 2,315.39 1,382.69 0.02 0.00 Anguilla 24 103 207.04 226.55 0.00 0.00 Spain 45 88 272.89 137.82 0.01 0.00 About price: Import price of raw yarn in October 2021 was at $2,974/ton, down $253/ton compared to September 2021, but increased by $670/ton over the same period in October 2020. In which, the lowest price of raw materials imported from Malaysia reached 1,706 USD/ton; The import price from Indonesia reached 3,247 USD/ton and the import price from the highest market was Japan at 8,859 USD/ton. Generally, in the first 10 months of 2021, the price of imported raw yarns to Vietnam reached an average of 2,791 USD/ton, up 20.5% over the same period in 2020.
  23. 23. Page | 19 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Import price of yarn 10 months 2021 (USD/ton) Import price of yarn 10 months 2021 Exporter Oct-2021 (USD/ton) Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct-2020 (%) 10 months 2021 (USD/ton) Compared to 10 months 2020 (%) Total 2,974 -7.9 29.1 2,791 20.5 China 2,739 -12.5 48.4 2,565 28.3 Taiwan 2,655 -3.6 3.2 2,554 3.4 India 3,616 9.9 61.1 2,868 30.7 Korea 3,613 -27.7 27.6 3,710 13.0 Indonesia 3,247 13.2 51.6 2,777 20.0 Hong Kong 6,769 -34.2 -7.5 6,236 -41.5 Thailand 2,543 -35.3 -30.0 3,356 -2.0 Japan 8,859 -11.4 -24.9 9,901 508.2 Singapore 7,042 -46.5 92.0 7,880 5.1 Malaysia 1,706 -43.3 66.0 1,611 49.7 USA 7,318 143.7 202.0 4,735 -40.6 Pakistan 5,242 6.5 53.3 4,176 21.8 Italy 6,976 -68.8 -65.4 8,367 -57.3 Australia 2,268 -2.8 -58.0 2,305 -57.3 Turkey 5,482 -2.9 7.5 4,147 41.5 Netherlands 4,568 -65.8 -92.3 23,853 -58.3 Bangladesh 1,197 55.7 3.9 1,158 13.8 Switzerland 1,230 -97.5 49.7 1,068 15.2 Cameroon 2,035 -6.5 2,106 Ivory Coast 2,140 2.0 38.1 2,108 36.0 Germany 9,274 118.2 455.4 4,398 3.3 UK 4,183 47.8 2,909 -10.1 Brazil 2,044 38.7 1,961 27.7 Andora 820 1.7 815 -83.2 Import price of raw fiber continues to decrease slightly According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's imported fiber in October 2021 reached 28.17 thousand tons, worth 35.78 million USD, up 22.9% in volume but
  24. 24. Page | 20 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT up 20 .6% in value compared to September 2021, and down 15.1% in volume, up 7.6% in value compared to October 2020. In general, in the first 10 months of 2021, the amount of imported raw fiber reached 322 thousand tons, worth 412 million USD, up 5.2% in volume and 18.1% in value over the same period in 2020. In the 10 months of 2021, Vietnam imported raw fiber from 26 markets, down 2 markets compared to the same period in 2020, China is the largest supplier of raw fiber to the Vietnamese market, the monthly import volume 10/2021 reached 11.45 thousand tons, worth 13.41 million USD, up 9.8% in volume but down 3.1% in value; down 29.7% in volume and 11.5% in value compared to October 2020. Generally, for the first 10 months of 2021, reaching 139.18 thousand tons, worth 164.14 million USD, accounting for 43.2% of the total import volume, up 16.1% in volume and 31.7% in value compared with 10 months of 2020. In October 2021, the import of raw fiber from the Taiwan market reached 2.99 thousand tons, worth 3.36 million USD, down 22.3% in volume and 23.5% in value compared to the previous month; down 33.4% and down 18.9% in value over the same period in October 2020. Generally, in the first 10 months of 2021, the import of raw fiber from Taiwan market reached 48.94 thousand tons, worth 54.12 million USD, accounting for 15.2% of Vietnam's total import of raw fiber, a decrease. 3.4% in volume but up 12.8% in value compared to the first 10 months of 2020. In general, in the first 10 months of 2021, imports of raw fibers from markets to Vietnam decreased slightly, except for Indonesia, which increased by 6.9% in volume. Notably, the amount of imported fiber materials from some markets increased sharply in the first 10 months of 2021 such as India, Hong Kong, and Cambodia. Vietnam's import fibers in 10 months 2021 Exporter Oct-2021 Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct-2020 (%) 10 months 2021 Compared to 10M/2020 (%) Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Qty Value Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Total 28,171 35,784 22.9 20.6 -14.7 8.0 322,414 412,907 5.5 18.6 China 11,458 13,413 9.8 -3.1 -29.7 -11.5 139,189 164,140 16.1 31.7 Taiwan 2,995 3,365 -22.3 -23.5 -34.4 -18.9 48,949 54,127 -3.4 12.8 Korea 2,601 3,311 -5.8 2.0 -38.9 -38.2 33,214 48,155 -6.1 3.3 Thailand 2,862 3,564 111.1 121.5 -38.5 -6.7 32,209 40,959 -32.1 -4.8 Indonesia 3,074 3,311 65.9 49.4 212.7 274.7 23,746 28,549 6.9 43.0 Greece 332 1,039 -36.3 -37.8 -13.9 14.1 6,629 18,268 -7.1 3.4 India 1,989 2,039 88.1 97.1 425.9 194.0 15,820 18,225 345.7 306.9 Singapore 718 1,783 2,808.7 456.9 74.7 215.4 2,989 8,280 -15.6 18.3 Hong Kong 216 667 38,391.1 4,383.0 -69.0 -34.0 3,876 6,806 110.2 116.9
  25. 25. Page | 21 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Exporter Oct-2021 Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct-2020 (%) 10 months 2021 Compared to 10M/2020 (%) Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value Qty Value Qty (ton) Value (1,000 USD) Qty Value USA 239 929 169.7 171.6 17,302.0 25,421.0 1,826 5,133 -54.1 -56.0 Malaysia 563 635 108.3 105.6 324.9 345.8 3,889 4,909 74.7 89.2 Japan 162 489 96.8 862.0 139.5 214.3 1,886 4,106 -36.0 -62.5 Cambodia 519 437 8.4 8.3 3,344 2,752 14,440.0 8,743.0 Russia - 1,581 2,165 152.4 307.4 Pakistan 161 215 121.7 122.5 227.0 230.8 1,042 1,403 40.8 30.9 Austria - 466 1,301 Macau - 474 731 131.8 174.8 Netherlands 12 216 345.2 329.3 39 672 -58.7 -53.9 UK - -100.0 -100.0 147 516 -5.9 -1.6 Italy 74 97 272.2 592.9 219 416 -24.3 64.1 Bangladesh 134 120 194.1 194.1 451 406 Slovenia 20 59 80 239 -91.9 -89.8 Myanmar - 143 232 6.7 -12.5 Belgium - -100.0 -100.0 113 184 1,576.0 1,467.0 Turkey - -100.0 -100.0 44 109 -93.7 -86.8 Germany 8 47 18 77 -39.4 -16.4 In terms of price: In October 2021, the price of imported fiber materials to Vietnam averaged $1,270/ton, down 1.9% compared to September 2021 but up 26.9% compared to October 2020. In which, the price of raw fiber imported from India reached the lowest level, reaching 1025 USD/ton; followed by from Indonesia reached 1,077 USD/ton and the import price of raw fiber from the Greek market reached the highest level, reaching 3,125 USD/ton. Import price of fiber 10 months 2021 (USD/ton) The average import price of raw fiber in October 2021 decreased for the fourth consecutive month since peaking in June 2021, due to lower input material prices. It is forecasted that in the
  26. 26. Page | 22 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT coming months, the import price of raw materials may decrease slightly but still be higher than the same period in 2020. Import price of fiber 10 months 2021 Exporter Oct-2021 (USD/ton) Compared to Sep-2021 (%) Compared to Oct-2020 (%) 10 months 2021 (USD/ton) Compared to 10 months 2020 (%) Total 1,270 -1.9 26.6 1,281 12.4 China 1,171 -11.7 25.8 1,179 13.4 Taiwan 1,123 -1.6 23.5 1,106 16.8 Korea 1,273 8.3 1.0 1,450 10.1 Thailand 1,245 4.9 51.7 1,272 40.2 Indonesia 1,077 -9.9 19.8 1,202 33.7 Greece 3,125 -2.2 32.4 2,756 11.3 India 1,025 4.8 -44.1 1,152 -8.7 Singapore 2,483 -80.9 80.6 2,770 40.2 Hong Kong 3,085 -88.4 112.6 1,756 3.2 USA 3,887 0.7 46.7 2,810 -4.1 Malaysia 1,128 -1.3 4.9 1,262 8.3 Japan 3,026 388.7 31.2 2,177 -41.3 Cambodia 841 -0.1 823 -39.2 Russia 1,370 61.4 Pakistan 1,335 0.4 1.1 1,347 -7.1 Austria 2,790 Macau 1,544 18.6 Netherlands 17,968 -3.6 17,084 11.7 UK 3,504 4.6 Italy 1,303 86.1 1,904 116.6 Bangladesh 900 0.0 900 Slovenia 2,900 2,989 24.9 Myanmar 1,627 -18.0 Belgium 1,636 -6.5 Turkey 2,500 108.6 Cotton Outlook 12-2021 The NY/ICE futures market suggests a significant drop in prices between now and the next northern hemisphere harvest (2022/23). This is reflected in the 15 cent/lb difference between prices for the March 2021 contract (currently trading near 105 cents/lb) and the December 2022 contract (currently trading near 90 cents/lb). For that to happen, the uptrend in the nearby prices, defined by the series of higher lows marked since April 2020, will have to be broken. Despite the recent retreat, that uptrend is still very much intact. It remains to be seen what could eventually cause prices to take another step lower. The uptrend has already resisted
  27. 27. Page | 23 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT the emergence and spread of the Delta variant, lowered expectations for global economic growth, and supply chain disruption. Some of the gains over the past year and a half may be attributable to the “everything rally” that has spanned financial markets since the Federal Reserve unleashed an unprecedented expansion of the money supply. Given concerns about inflation, these measures may wind down faster than previously planned. The discovery of the Omicron variant was coincident with the steepest daily declines in cotton prices over the past month. Those declines also occurred around the same time that officials from the Federal Reserve said they were considering an accelerated conclusion to their monetary expansion and an earlier start for increases in interest rates. The last time the Federal Reserve began a program of raising rates, the “taper tantrum” sent a range of financial markets lower. Challenges to the uptrend could also surface from influences rooted in cotton supply and demand. An old saying in commodity markets is that the best cure for high prices is high prices. This is because of basic economic reactions. Higher prices can be expected to result in higher acreage and production worldwide. Higher prices can also depress demand. From this early position relative to the 2022/23 crop year, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook. Prices for competing crops, like corn and soybeans, have also increased over the past year and a half. Input prices have also risen. In combination, these factors may limit the increase in cotton plantings. On the demand side, there is uncertainty regarding the strength of the global macroeconomic environment. While world GDP growth is forecast to remain well-above average, it is expected to slow in 2022 and beyond. Mill demand may also slow. With the recovery since COVID, there has been a scramble to refill and reposition product pipelines. As those pipelines stabilize and fill, the urgency in order placement throughout supply chains may ease. China Leads 2021/22 Global Cotton Imports The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that world cotton imports in 2021/22 (August–July) are projected at 46.9 million bales; while 4 percent (2.1 million bales) below last season’s record, this season’s projection would be the third highest ever. China leads the way once again, accounting for 22 percent of the total (figure 1). In addition, strong imports are seen for Bangladesh, Vietnam, and others in support of their expanding cotton mill use. World cotton production is forecast at 121.6 million bales in 2021/22—the largest in 4 years— resulting from increased yields and a higher harvested area. Meanwhile, global cotton mill use in 2021/22 is projected to rise nearly 3 percent to a record 124.3 million bales, as demand for cotton products continues to improve from 2019/20’s dramatic downturn. World cotton exports are led by the United States, Brazil, and India, contributing a combined 63 percent of
  28. 28. Page | 24 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT the total in 2021/22. Global cotton ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are both projected at their lowest in 3 years, supporting world cotton price levels not seen in a decade. World Cotton Production Higher in 2021/22 Global cotton production in 2021/22 is projected at 121.6 million bales, marginally below last month’s projection but 9.9 million bales (9 percent) above last season (figure 3). World harvested area and yield are each projected higher this season. Global area is forecast at nearly 32.7 million hectares (80.7 million acres) in 2021/22—1.25 million hectares above 2020/21. The world cotton yield in 2021/22 is projected at a record 811 kilograms (kg) per hectare (723 pounds per acre), compared with the 3-year average of 770 kg per hectare. Cotton production prospects for the major-producing countries this season are positive— compared with 2020/21—with China the exception. Production in India—the leading cotton producer—is forecast at 28 million bales, 400,000 bales above 2020/21. Although lower area resulted from the monsoon’s variation in key cotton regions in India this season, a higher projected national yield more than offset the area reduction. Harvested area in India is estimated at 12.4 million hectares in 2021/22, the lowest in 5 years. India’s yield (492 kg per hectare) is forecast 7 percent above the 3-year average. In 2021/22, India is forecast to account for 23 percent of the global cotton crop. For China, 2021/22 cotton production is projected at 26.75 million bales, 9 percent (2.75 million bales) below a year earlier, with reductions for both area and yield. Harvested area is forecast at 3.1 million hectares (-4.6 percent), while less favorable growing conditions lowered this season national yield (1,879 kg per hectare) that is 5 percent below 2020/21’s record. China is expected to account for 22 percent of global production this season. Pakistan’s cotton production is forecast at 5.7 million bales (+1.2 million), as a significant rebound in yield to 621
  29. 29. Page | 25 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT kg per hectare more than offsets a 40-year low in cotton area. Pakistan is forecast to account for about 5 percent of the global cotton crop in 2021/22. 5.8 6.1 4 2.5 2.9 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 8.7 5.6 0.5 2 0.7 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.3 3.4 1.5 1.8 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million metric tons World Cotton Market Outlook 2021/2022 12-2021 Production Consumption Exports Imports
  30. 30. Page | 26 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT Source All data are accurate, relevant and verified from sources: the Ministry of Industry and Trade, General Department of Vietnam Customs, General Statistics Office of Vietnam, International Trade Center and other reliable sources. Reference from Newspapers India's cotton and cotton yarn prices are rising China Textile News December 02, 2021 With cotton prices soaring to record highs, Indian cotton yarn prices have risen by more than 20% recently. In the past three months, the price of high-quality 40-count yarn and 60-count yarn has risen from 330 rupees/kg to 405 rupees/kg, and from 415 rupees/kg to 500 rupees/kg. After the epidemic restriction was lifted, India's domestic clothing demand has shown an increasing trend, and yarn prices have kept up with the rise of cotton prices. The Federation of Indian Textile Industry said that since October last year, the price of cotton has risen by 80%, but the price of 40 yarns has only risen by 58% in the same period. The agency stated that although the price of cotton blends, which are popular in southern India, has risen again by 126%, the price of 80 yarns has only increased by 38%. According to Indian industry bodies, despite the increase in cotton prices, the order for spinning mills has been scheduled for 45 days. With the increase in yarn demand, advance orders are also increasing. Therefore, the spinning mill is currently in an advantageous position. Due to the strong domestic demand for natural fibers, spinning mills now hope to supplement cotton demand in the next 2 to 3 months. At present, the daily market volume of new cotton in India is nearly 150,000 bales, and the quality has also improved. Spinners currently have sufficient cotton stocks. According to the Federation of Indian Textile Industry, due to strong demand in the apparel industry due to open tourism and market restrictions, spinning mills still have some profits even at current cotton prices. However, due to strong domestic demand and fast payment cycles, Indian cotton exports have slowed. At present, most spinning companies are catering to the domestic market. In terms of exports, Vietnam and China are the largest buyers of Indian cotton yarn, followed by the European Union and Turkey.
  31. 31. Page | 27 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT China market overview in 2021 Fibre2fashion/ Globaltimes China's garment industry continued to expand in the first three quarters of 2021, reporting growth in production, revenue and profit, according to official data, which showed that from January to September, the combined operating revenue of 12,557 major Chinese garment companies was nearly 1.05 trillion yuan ($163.9 billion), up by 9 per cent year on year. According to the ministry of industry and information technology, total profits of these companies rose by 5.8 per cent from the same period last year to hit 45.7 billion yuan, with the combined output expanding 9.3 per cent year on year to 17.1 billion pieces. China's online retail sales of garments climbed 15.6 per cent year on year in the period, and its exports of garments and accessories surged by 25.3 per cent to $122.4 billion, official Chinese media reported citing the ministry data. China remains the biggest textile exporter in the world, with net exports of textiles equaling $154.1 billion in 2020, up 28.9 percent on a yearly basis and accounted for 43.5 percent of world's total textile exports in terms of value. The figure stood at 10.3 percent in 2000, according to a report on world trade review by the WTO. China has remained in the headlines recently as its domestic economy faced headwinds on several fronts. Earlier this year, it faced global pushback on Xinjiang cotton and many international brands were vocal about forced labour issues there, which authorities in China have completely denied. Later, a renewed surge in COVID-19 infections stalled port operations making transporting goods out of China extremely tough, which is now an even bigger challenge as more containers pile up at the ports. This has impacted China’s economy tremendously in the recent months, reflected in China’s Manufacturing PMI for Sep ’21 (49.6) and Oct ’21 (50.6), indicating very sluggish growth or a possible contraction in China’s manufacturing sector in the coming months. More recently, power cuts due to coal shortages and the scare of China’s huge real estate debt made its economic prospects look even worse, as covered in our previous note. As much as these concerns and the resultant impact reflect China’s dominant participation in global economy, from a long-term perspective also, China holds a dominant position in global business and investment decision making. Global investment community continues to be positive on China, however their perspective likely reflects more of a wait and watch approach. Some of the big names in global investment industry are still bullish on China, and some are probably more optimistic than before. This is also seen in the FDI inflows in China this year, which climbed 23.4 per cent y-o-y to $142 billion in Jan-Oct 2021. Despite the short-term speculations about US-China trade war affecting their trade relations and global supply chains becoming more diversified shunning China’s supplier networks, China’s contribution and relevance to global trade and economy will perhaps continue to grow. And it’s not just what EU and the US commit in policy terms with respect to China, but also
  32. 32. Page | 28 VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION_______________________DEC 2021 – MONTHLY REPORT China’s own foreign partnerships in terms of trade and investments across the world that are now widely known. Exports of cotton fabric from China have also remained strong recently, reflecting its dominant position in this segment. The speculation that China’s cotton and textiles made out of it continue to be in use has been recorded elsewhere as well as experts recognise China’s bumper cotton harvest amidst concerns about its forced labour issues. However, strong demand for cotton fabric from China suggests how difficult it could be to actually diversify input sourcing. This was also evident when apparel producers were running short on deadlines as supplies of fabrics from China dried up suddenly last year. Cotton prices in China’s domestic market have also remained strong. All three major categories ((3128B, 2227B, 2129B) in China have had a steady demand in the last couple of months, with prices inching upwards.

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