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A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX
                              APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION

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A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX
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A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX
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A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX
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Traffic Jams Non Zero Ratio

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A new approach on harsh problem solving presented by Non Zero Ratio on Innovation Day 06

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Traffic Jams Non Zero Ratio

  1. 1. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION VERHAERTINNOVATIONDAY – OCTOBER 20th, 2006 “Non-Zero Ratio”, a new www.mastersininnovation.com problem-solving toolbox applied on traffic congestion Piet Holbrouck piet.holbrouck@pandora.be www.pietholbrouck.be - www.nonzeroratio.org Commercially confidence – This presentation contains ideas and information which are proprietary of Powered by Piet Holbrouck, it is given in confidence. You are authorized to open and view the electronic copy of this document and to print a single copy. Otherwise, the material may not in whole or in part be copied, stored electronically or communicated to third parties without prior agreement of Powered by Piet Holbrouck. www.mastersininnovation.com 20.10.2006 Slide 1
  2. 2. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Content www.mastersininnovation.com • My background • Non-Zero Ratio, a “new” problem-solving toolbox • Application : Traffic jams / congestion 20.10.2006 Slide 2
  3. 3. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION My background Test cases : Unsolved problems www.mastersininnovation.com in society Non-Zero Ratio The Ultimate Problem-Solving Toolbox Product Development Fuzzy Problem-Solving and and Front Decision-Making Innovation End Research Consultancy Powered by Piet Holbrouck 20.10.2006 Slide 3
  4. 4. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION What is problem-solving? Problem-Solving Expertise www.mastersininnovation.com (re-normalisation) (normalisation) When expertise fails, one needs problem-solving. Problem-solving is the discipline everybody needs. 20.10.2006 Slide 4
  5. 5. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Introduction to Non-Zero Ratio : what? • Tool to solve the toughest problems www.mastersininnovation.com • Two conjugate parts: • PANDORA Problem-Solving toolbox/process • Non-Zero Behaviour : Specification of the environment (attitude) needed to “run” PANDORA 20.10.2006 Slide 5
  6. 6. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Validation of Non-Zero Ratio? • Must succeed in providing solutions to hitherto www.mastersininnovation.com unsolved problems • => Test-demo cases in different categories: • Renormalisation • Segmentation: traffic jam • Filters of certainty • Decision-making • … 20.10.2006 Slide 6
  7. 7. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION What makes Non-Zero Ratio different? • Distillation / selection of the finest sets of insights and www.mastersininnovation.com tools relevant especially to toughest problems • Builds upon: • Goldratt’s Theory Of Constraints – Thinking Processes • Kahneman’s results on our Decision-Making in uncertainty • John Nash’ win-win theorem • Sync – complexity – evolution theories • Altshuller’s TRIZ concepts • Thomas Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions • Derivatives • Kotter, Senge, Coleman, … 20.10.2006 Slide 7
  8. 8. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Key Insights 1 : Role of (re)normalisation to generate new reinforcing Vision www.mastersininnovation.com • Breakthrough solutions break the norms • “Structure of scientific revolutions” (T. Kuhn) • Through a cycle : abnormal perspective becomes normal after providing a “normalised perspective” (examples: Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity) Normal => Abnormal (= absurd) <= New (normal) perspective 20.10.2006 Slide 8
  9. 9. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Key insights 2 : The relevance of win-win www.mastersininnovation.com 20.10.2006 Slide 9
  10. 10. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Key insights 3 : Role of Segmentation • Segmentation = different local optimizations, each local www.mastersininnovation.com optimization taking a different starting point, leading to different types of solution • Segments develop structures that tend to sustain themselves • Each segment has its distinct advantage(s) and disadvantage(s) • If segmentation exists, one can identify an ideal final solution as the solution that combines all advantages of the different segments while having no disadvantage; related to ideal final solution: • TRIZ • TOC (mapping of logic behind desirable and undesirable effects) Stephen Covey 2nd habbit : begin with the end in mind • • The Ideal Final Solution will have properties mixed from several segments 20.10.2006 Slide 10
  11. 11. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Key insights 4 : synchronized evolution path • From complex systems theory www.mastersininnovation.com • Changing / modifying entire segments and their structure leads to : • Need to synchronize (Crf. Steven Strogatz) • Evolution to ideal final solution over consecutive steps “next-adjacent-possible” (Cfr. Stuart Kauffmann) 20.10.2006 Slide 11
  12. 12. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Key insights 5 : Embrace uncertainty www.mastersininnovation.com • When leaving the “normal” zone, it requires exploration to find those “abnormal” (most people will say “absurd”) assumptions that are key to the ideal final solution path. During this exploration, the attitude is to allow everything to be questioned and seek new perspectives supporting the “abnormal” directions … 20.10.2006 Slide 12
  13. 13. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Key insight 6 : Use TOC-Thinking Processes and SCRIPTS Decision-making under uncertainty www.mastersininnovation.com • To map the complex logic and allow to discuss it in a complete and traceable way (Miller : 7+-2) • To overcome the biases we make when making decisions in uncertainty (Kahneman Nobel Laureate 2002) 20.10.2006 Slide 13
  14. 14. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION What could we learn from Non-Zero Ratio in the case of traffic congestion? www.mastersininnovation.com • Win-win : identify stakeholders. If traffic congestion is solved, who would loose? => Public transport! : Tug-of-war : find win-win • Segments : cars, public transport, trucks, boats, airplanes, … • Construct Ideal Final Solution • Find evolutive “next-adjacent-possible” path. 20.10.2006 Slide 14
  15. 15. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION From undesirable effects to ideal final solution • Car transport : Undesirable effects www.mastersininnovation.com • No alcohol (=> not possible to drive to parties with alcohol) • Good eye-sight needed (=>elder, blind) • Attention needed (=> accidents) • Skill needed (=> accidents) • Public transport (bus-train) : undesirable effects • Less-flexible in timing • Not end-to-end • Derived Ideal Final Solution : combine all positives; drop the negatives • Automated driving (alcohol, blind, no attention/skill, flexible, end-to-end) 20.10.2006 Slide 15
  16. 16. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION From Ideal Final Solution to Next Adjacent Possible • Mix of car and train? … www.mastersininnovation.com • At traffic congestion points it is already now desirable to mix car and train properties: • If clusters of cars could now behave as a train, the throughput at congestion points would significantly increase • How? … … 20.10.2006 Slide 16
  17. 17. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION How to accomplish the next-adjacent-possible? • Suggestion for the “next-adjacent-possible”: www.mastersininnovation.com • ALL (!) cars equipped with cruise-control that acts upon distance to car before • How to establish : synchronisation to have add-on to all cars • Local infrastructure modified to avoid lane crossings at traffic congestion points • Mix stakeholders : public transport + car (to avoid forcing public transport in a “loose” position) • Note how abnormal (absurd) this direction is … 20.10.2006 Slide 17
  18. 18. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION What about the feasibility? • Technical : OK www.mastersininnovation.com • Financial? • Cost: • Belgium : 5.000.000 cars x 2 k€/car=10.000 M€ cost to install system • + modifications to infrastructure … • Return? • Cost of traffic congestion : 2002, Belgium : about 500 M€ • Other elements : • Car accidents : 12.000 M€/yr (only partially to t • Injuries and deaths • ROI ranges from over 20 yrs ((10.000+X)/500) to far shorter 20.10.2006 Slide 18
  19. 19. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Traffic jam threat as major opportunity • From “Scripts” (Murnighan & Mowen) : missed opportunities if we www.mastersininnovation.com don’t do: • Cities can maximize traffic throughput at rush hours rerouting traffic circulation • Car drivers can decide to use also in non-traffic congestion areas • Learn to co-operate between segments (public transport – cars – infrastructure – government – industry – individuals …) • Learn to manage a massive synchronisation project • Development of new products with economic potential (jobs, export) • Recognition of Flanders/Belgium as world-wide leader • Potential to extend this synchronisation to next steps (next-adjacent- possible), such as control of steering • Concluding : SCRIPTS leads to “do it”, especially as expected car accidents (costing 12.000 M€/yr) can be expected to be dramatically reduced 20.10.2006 Slide 19
  20. 20. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION Concluding • Of course, there are obstacles, but: www.mastersininnovation.com • What are they? Can they be overcome? • Isn’t the direction of the solution evident, in the end? • Isn’t the exercise besides exciting, potentially extremely learningful with strong economical, political and social potential? • Why should we NOT take the opportunity? • What next? Feedback appreciated : piet.holbrouck@pandora.be 20.10.2006 Slide 20
  21. 21. A NEW PROBLEM-SOLVING TOOLBOX APPLIED ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION www.mastersininnovation.com Verhaert New Products & Services nv Hogenakkerhoekstraat 21 9150 Kruibeke Belgium Tel +32 (0)3 250 19 00 Fax +32 (0)3 254 10 08 www.verhaert.com info@verhaert.com www.mastersininnovation.com 20.10.2006 Slide 21

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