Commodities May 2013 Review

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Commodities May 2013 Review from VENTURA Commodities.
Contents:
- VENTURA Column
- Top Stories
- Currency update
- Performance of select few commodities
- US Economy update
- Report on Copper
- Event Calendar
- Call performance

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Commodities May 2013 Review

  1. 1. 1 M C X FUTURES COMMODITY May 20th, 2013 Monthly Review Inside this issue Ventura Column Top Stories Currency Update April'13 Performance of Select Few Commodities US Economy Update Report on Copper Event calendar Call Performance Volume 7, Issue 4
  2. 2. 2 What is Commodities transaction tax (CTT)? Dharmesh Jain Executive Agri Research Commodities transaction tax (CTT) is a tax similar to Securities Transaction Tax (STT)ontransactionsdoneonthedomesticcommodityderivativesexchanges. Globally, commodity derivatives are also considered as financial contracts. HenceCTTcanalsobeconsideredasatypeoffinancialtransactiontax. The concept of CTT was first introduced in the Union Budget 2008-09 (para 179 of the Budget Speech).The Government had then proposed to impose a commodities transaction tax (CTT) of 0.017% (equivalent to the rate of equity futures at that point of time). However, it was withdrawn subsequently as the market was nascent then and any imposition of transaction tax might have adversely affected the growth of organised commodities derivatives markets in India. This has helped Indian commodity exchanges to grow to global standards(MCX is the world's number 3 commodity exchange; Globally, MCX isNo.1inGoldandSilver,No.2inNaturalgasandNo.3inCrudeOil) In the Union Budget 2013-14 CTT has been re-introduced, however, only for non-agricultural commodity futures at the rate of 0.01% (which is equivalent to the rate of equity futures). Alongwith this, transactions in commodity derivatives have been declared to be made non-speculative;and hence for traders in the commodity derivative segment, any losses arising from such transactions can be set off against income from any other source (similar provisionsareapplicableforthesecuritiesmarkettransactions). Like all financial transaction taxes, CTT aims at discouraging excessive speculation, which is detrimental to the market and to bring parity between securities market and commodities market such that there is no tax / regulatory arbitrage. (Futures contracts are financial instruments and provide for price risk management and price discovery of the underlying asset (commodity / currency/ stocks / interest). It is therefore essential that the policy framework governing is uniform across all the contracts irrespective of theunderlyingtominimize thechancesofregulatoryarbitrage. During 2011-12, the total size of commodity futures market was Rs.181261 bn (US$3420 bn), registering a compound annual growth rate of 40 percent since its inception in 2003. Futures trade in non-agricultural commodities accounted for nearly 88 percent of the total turnover on Indian commodity exchanges during this period. The futures trading in bullion (gold, silver and platinum contracts)aloneaccountedfor56percentofthetotalmarketturnover. Based on the current trading value of non-agricultural commodities in the Indian exchanges, CTT (at 0.01 percent) could fetch Rs.15950 million ($300 million) to cash-starved exchequer every year. This is a substantial amount in the present times when tax revenues are under severe pressure and the government's attempts to reduce fiscal deficit through other measures are not yieldingpositiveresults. The revenue raised through CTT could be utilized in several ways. Since New Delhi is too much worried over the current fiscal situation, it could use a part of thistaxrevenuetoreducethefiscaldeficit. Another key benefit of the CTT lies in its progressive outlook. The CTT would only affect speculators and non-commercial players who often use high- frequency trading to transact a large number of commodity futures contracts at very fast speeds. In contrast, a sales tax is generally considered to be regressivebecauseitdisproportionatelyburdensthepoorpeople. The opponents cannot ignore the fact that the CTT would be a more efficient revenue source than other taxes. The CTT would be collected by the commodity futures exchanges from the brokers and passed on to the exchequer, thereby enablingtheauthoritiestoraiserevenueinaneat,transparentandefficientmanner. TheRevenuePotential FairAndEfficient RevenueCollection Top Stories After14monthsofban,tradinginguarseed,guargumbegins Guar seed and guar gum was relaunched on commodity exchanges after being banned by Forward Market Commission. In March 2012, the commodity was banned from trading duetoasharpriseinguargumprices. On MCX, the trading unit of guar seed and guar gum is one tonne each and price quote for the contracts is ex-warehouse Jodhpur, inclusive of sales tax/VAT. These are compulsory delivery contracts with staggered delivery tender period for the last 15 days. The physical deliverywouldbeavailableinmultiplesofonetonneforbothguarseedandguargum. The basis delivery center for both the contracts is Jodhpur and additional delivery centers include Bikaner, Nokha, Sri Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Barmer in Rajasthan, Deesa in Gujarat,andAdampurandSirsainHaryana. On NCDEX, guar seed saw trading volume of 5,664 tonne and open interest of 2,137 tonne with traded value of Rs 53.76 crore and guar gum saw trading volume of 1,014 tonne and open interest of 237 tonne with traded value of Rs 28.60 crore, the exchange said in a pressrelease. FMC has proposed stringent conditions for futures trade in these commodities. A special margin of 10%, which is over and above the initial margin, will be imposed if prices rise by more than 20%. Further, for every 10% rise in prices, the special margin charged will also increase by 10%. Additionally, if prices increase by more than 50% in the June and July expirycontracts,aspecialmarginof70%willbeimposed. Last year, the total production of guar seed was around 180 million bags (1 bag = 100 kilograms), on the Jodhpur spot market, guar gum is currently priced at Rs 28,000 per quintalandguarseedatRs9,500perquintal. On MCX, guar seed for june delivery was down by 2% to Rs 9505 per quintal and guar gum forJunedeliverywasdownby2.6%toRs28,050perquintal. This year, the area under the commodity is expected to rise in Rajasthan, a major producer of the commodity. Last year farmers got good returns for their produce due to which they willincreasetheareaunderguarseed.Thiswillcausetheareaundermoongdaltofall. 1 Dollar approaches 10-month high as markets reassess Fed outlook The U.S. dollar approached a 10-month high against a basket of currencies on after a regional Federal Reserve chief said the U.S. central bank could begin easing up on stimulus this summer. Currency markets took their cue from comments by John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who said the Fed could completely exit its easing by the end of the year. Investors see Williams' thinking as close to that of the Fed's top officials such as Chairman BenBernankeandViceChairJanetYellen. The dollar index .DXY, which measures the currency's value against a basket of six major currencies,gainedto83.886,nearinga10-monthhigh of84.094set. A break of its July peak of 84.100 could open the way for a test of 84.929, a 76.4 percent retracement ofitsfallfromthe2010peakof88.708tonearathree-yearlowof72.696hit in 2011. Speculation about the Fed's possible exit from stimulus is having the most pronounced impact on the Australian dollar, which has enjoyed the status of highest-yielding major currencyforyears. The currency's 5.7 percent tumble this month accounts for nearly all of its 6 percent loss on the year, as a fall in commodity prices in recent months raises concerns about a slowdowninChina,thebiggestbuyerofAustralia'snaturalresources. Patchy U.S. data is still blunting the dollar's gains. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region contracted in May as new orders fell to their lowest level in almost a year, while new claimsforjoblessbenefitsspiked. Aresurgentdollarpushedtheeuronearasix-weeklow. Currency Update
  3. 3. 3 US Economy Update 2 APRIL '13 PERFORMANCE OF SELECT FEW COMMODITIES Commodity Contract 1st April Rate 30th April Rate % Change Gold 05th Jun 30027 26905 Silver 05th Jul 53822 45226 Crude Oil 20th May 5323 5014 Natural Gas 28th May 223 232.6 Copper 28th Jun 414.3 380.25 -10.4 -15.97 -5.8 -8.22 4.3 MarchISMindexdropsto51.3%from54.2% U.S.Factories'FebruaryOrdersRise onCar,PlaneDemand JobGainsSlowAmidU.S.UnemploymentatFour-YearLow TradeDeficit inU.S.UnexpectedlyNarrowsonOil Imports Retail SalesinU.S.DroppedinMarchbyMostinNine Months The pace of expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed sharply in March to the lowest level since December. The Institute for Supply Management index fell to 51.3% from 54.2% in February. Reading over 50 indicates more manufacturers are expanding instead of contracting. The ISM's new-orders gauge sank to 51.3% from 57.8%. The production index dropped to 52.2% from 57.6%. Orders placed with U.S. factories increased in February, boosted by a pickup in demand for motor vehicles and commercial aircraft. The 3 percent gain in bookings, the biggest in five months, followed a revised 1 percent decline in January. The advance was led by a 5.6 percent surge in demand for durable goods that was little changed from the 5.7 percent estimate issued last week. Auto sales that are on pace for the best year since 2007 and gains in home construction are helping drive sales and orders at manufacturers. More corporate investment and inventory rebuilding are also keeping assembly lines busy, contributing to economic growth as businesses look beyond federalbudgetcuts. Employers hired fewer workers than forecast in March and a slump in the size of the labor force pushed the jobless rate down to a four-year low, indicating the U.S. job market is struggling to make bigger strides. Payrolls grew by 88,000 workers last month, the smallest in nine months, after a revised 268,000 gain in February that washigher thanfirstestimated. The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in February as stabilizing overseas markets boosted exports and Americans imported less oil. The gap narrowed by 3.4 percent to $43 billion from a revised $44.5 billion in January. The number of barrels of crude oil imported into the U.S. in February was the smallest since 1996. A weaker U.S. currency will make American exports more attractive to overseas buyers. The dollar had dropped 2.3 percent from last year's peak as against a trade- weighted basketofcurrenciesfromitsbiggesttradingpartners. Retail sales in the U.S. dropped in March by the most in nine months, pointing to a slowdown in consumer spending as the first quarter drew to a close. Purchases fell 0.4 percent, the biggest setback since June, after jumping 1 percent in February. Rupeehits1-monthlow The rupee had closed down at 54.80 to hit a month's low due to fresh dollar demandfromimportersamidfirmglobalcues. The yen continued its fall against the dollar and euro, giving investors a green light tocontinuesellingtheJapanesecurrency. The rupee sentiment was hit by selling in commodities that was triggered by a strong dollar, which rose to a fresh four-and-a-half-year peak against the yen on the back of growing confidence in the US economy. The yen today continued its fall against the dollar and euro, giving investors a green light to continue selling the Japanesecurrency. Consumer sentiment took a hit this month after employment cooled. The sales data prompted economists to trim consumer- spending forecasts from what was projected to be the best quarter in two years. Gains in hiring and wages will be needed to ensure any slowdown proves temporary as federal budget cuts and an increaseinthepayrolltaxrestraintheexpansion. Consumer sentiment tumbled to a nine-month low in April, with Americans especially gloomy about the long-term health of the economy. The preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment fell to 72.3 in April, a level last seen in July, 2012. The index stoodat78.6lastmonth. New-home construction in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in March as multifamily projects climbed to the highest level in more than seven years. Starts climbed 7 percent to a 1.04 million annual rate, the most since June 2008, following a revised 968,000 annual rate in February that was larger than previously reported. Building permits, a proxyforfutureconstruction,fell. Industrial production increased in March as consumers cranked up the heating, capping off a first quarter which saw an annualized growth rate of 5%, the best in a year for output. The Federal Reserve said industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in March, and February's growth was revised higher to 1.1% from the initially reported 0.8% advance. The March gain wasn't necessarily a great sign for the economy utilities output rose 5.3% due to unusually cold weather, andmanufacturing andmining outputactuallydecreased. Purchases of new U.S. homes rose in March, capping the best quarter for the industry since 2008 and providing more evidence the housing recovery will be sustained. Sales of single-family properties climbed 1.5 percent last month to a 417,000 annual pace from a 411,000 rate in February. A dearth of existing properties is encouraging builders to undertake new projects that will keep fueling theeconomy. The economy in the U.S. grew less than forecast in the first quarter as a drop in defense spending outweighed the biggest increase in consumer spending in two years. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate, lower than forecast, after a 0.4 percent fourth-quarter advance. Consumer spending, the biggestpartoftheeconomy,climbedbythemostsincethefourthquarterof2010. Aprilconsumersentimenthitsnine-monthlow HousingStartsinU.S.SurgeonMultifamilyUnit Demand Industrialproductionclimbs 0.4%inMarch SalesofNewHomes inU.S.Climb1.5%to417,000 Rate GrowthinU.S.TrailsForecastsasDefenseSpendingFalls Commodity Contract 1st April Rate 30th April Rate % Change Nickel 31th May 919.7 824.3 Zinc 31th May 104.25 99.55 Kapas 30th Apr 953 852 Jeera 20th Jun 13407.5 13075 Ref.Soya oil 20th Jun 668.4 690 -10.37 -4.51 -10.6 -2.48 3.23
  4. 4. 4 3 INTRODUCTION The industrial metal is sometimes called Dr. Copper in a reference to investors' confidence in its ability to provide insight on the health of the global economy thanks to its widespread use across many parts of the global economy. But copper hasn't been a very reliable indicator the last couple years. When it comes to diagnosing the outlook for the global economyandstockprices,Dr.Copperhasn'tbeenright fortwoyears DR. COPPER CATCHES COLD Copper prices have been trending lower since February 2011, when the futures settled at an all-time high of $4.63 a pound. Since then, futureshavefallen29%. Meanwhile Copper's recent drop has pushed futures prices to the precipice of a bear market, down nearly 20% off their February 2012 highs. As futures trade around $3.20 a pound, they're dangerously close to the $2.80 a pound it costs some mining companies to dig up themetal, The fall began in February when reports of liquidity withdrawal by the US Fed earlier than stated resulted is selling in commodities, including copper. The fall was accelerated early last week when China announcedweaker-than-expectedeconomicdata Futures in month of April had fallen to $3.06 a pound, the lowest intraday price since October 2011.This marks a swift reversal from just two years earlier, when copper breached $4.62 a pound as investorsfearedacoppershortage. Copper lost 5.9% on the week, its biggest weekly percentage decline in 16 months, and is down 13% this year. The metal is a component in manyproducts,ranging frombathroompipestoiPhones Out of the past 10 years, we've had a copper deficit for the past eight, although copper ended 2012 with a production deficit of 340,000 tonnes, owing to a rather sharp growth in Chinese demand and production bottlenecks. Global demand for copper grew by 3.1% in 2012, but turns into a decline of 2.2% if one excludes China's figures By 2013, however, expectations that supply from new and expanding copper mines would outpace demand from manufacturers in 2013 were spreading among investors. Copper inventories held at warehouses overseen by the London Metal Exchange are about 614,350 tons, on Thursday April 17th, up 92% this year already at theirhighest inadecade Demand remains uncertain due partly to high physical stocks and a slowdown in economic growth in China, as its economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, missing forecasts of 8%growth. Sparking April's move was news that copper shipments out of Zambia, Africa's largest copper producer, have resumed after a two- weekhaltbecauseofarailroadaccident. The additional supplies will arrive in a market in which stockpiles of extracopperarealreadyontherise. RISING INVENTORIES
  5. 5. 5 4 Meanwhile Chinese unreported inventories in bonded warehouses increased significantly during 2012. This unreported inventory can significantlyalterthemarketbalance. A. Importers are believed to have reduced their longer-term contractualvolumesofcopperby20-30%. B. China still has extensive inventories (which ICSG, too, has alludedto). C. The output of refined copper in the first two months (of 2013) grewby12%overthesameperiodinthepreviousyear. D. The extent to which industrial activity recovers in China remains to be seen. The copper market should therefore give out clearer indicators in the next few months of what to expect for the metal in theyearahead. SLUGGISHGROWTHIN EURO ZONE US & CHINA The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China is the EU's second- largest partner following the United States, Given this, any major impact on the EU and the euro zone will also have an impact on the economiesofChinaandtheUnited States Growth in China's vast factory sector dipped in April as new export orders shrank, suggesting the world's second-largest economy still facesformidableglobalheadwindsintothesecondquarter. The HSBC (PMI) is much lower than the market was expecting, all the indicators are pretty negative in terms of the detail. It does appear to be following the official PMI trend, which is pointing to more of a tepid recovery in the second quarter for China. The preliminary HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decelerated to 50.5 inAprilfromafinal51.6inMarch, Manufacturing activity in Europe, which as a region serves as the second-largest market for copper, continues to contract, and the economicreboundintheU.S.remainsuneven. The survey is signaling a worrying weakness in the economy at the start of the second quarter, with signs that the downturn is more likely tointensifyfurtherincomingmonthsratherthanease Thus making copper a delight for speculative bear traders, who have outnumbered bulls by nearly three to one among speculative holders of copper futures and options as per CFTC Interestingly, the number of open copper futures contracts has been rising as prices plunged – a sign that new sellers are entering the market at a faster pace than bullishinvestorsareleavingit. NEARING COSTOFPRODUCTION For the first time since 2009, copper prices are falling toward the cost of production. Another 12.5% drop will take copper futures down to $2.80, the total cost paid by some of the world's highest-cost copper miners to produce a pound of the metal. A sustained period at or below this price would force some mining companies to defer expansionplansandshutterunprofitableproduction. But with the recent wall slide at Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon copper mine in Utah, which occurred April 10, will remove around 100,000 metric tons of copper from the market this year which may support thepricenottouching thecostofproduction. WEAKERGROWTHOUTLOOK Copper and commodities prices in general, have been following growth in emerging market economies, particularly China, rather than developed economies, Copper's selloff accelerated overnight after data showed that China's economy grew at a 7.7% pace in the first quarter, fast by developed economy standards, but slower than expectationsof8%growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy and corporate earnings continue to grow at a moderate pace, and the Federal Reserve is expected to keep floodingthefinancialmarketswithliquidity.
  6. 6. 5 Weak demand and robust supplies could continue to put pressure on copper prices. Miners are unlikely to delay new projects or shut down productionuntilpricesnear$2.80apound, Bets on lower copper prices remain the dominant force in the market andbetsthatpriceswouldfall,knownasashortposition. Copper prices has been recovering well in May after its worst performance April, after a report on growing exports and imports from China signaled increased demand for the metal from the world's biggest buyer. China's exports rose 14.7 percent last month from a year ago and imports climbed 16.8 percent. The U.S. recovery and improving Chineseinternationaltradefiguresaresupporting thecopperprice. However China imported 295,799 metric tons of copper in April, its lowest import volume since June 2011. Imports were down 21.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month. but Cancelled warrants in copper in the LME's Asian warehouses are currently close to a record high atabove70,000tons,whichpointstorobustdemandinChina. More than 30 percent of total copper consumption in China comes from copper scrap, making the scrap material a vital part of supply and demand in the world's top producer and consumer of the metal. About a third of China's 6 million tons of annual output of the refined metal is madefromscrap The recent price surge in the first week of May can be attributed to the supplybottleneckofscrapcopper. As the economic slowdown in developed nations has reduced the global supply of copper scrap, typically sourced from old buildings, and used electrical cables and power generators, as new building has slowed. The tightness in scrap is a worldwide situation. Chinese secondary refineries, which have to be fed scrap, are bidding more aggressively in other markets, including in Europe, The tightness is due to maintenance shutdowns at Boliden's smelters in Sweden and Finland, a port strike in Chile earlier this year that blocked nearly 60,000 tonnes of copper exports from Codelco, backlogged stock in Antwerp warehousesandtheshortageofscrap. Scrap supplies tend to dry up when copper prices fall, as merchants who bought the material at higher prices are unwilling to sell at a loss, while others hold on to the metal in hope of higher prices, thus supplies were further hit in April after LME copper prices hit their lowest in 1-1/2 years, falling below $6,800 a tonne. Scrap sellers may increase selling ifLMEcopperpricesriseabove$7,500atonne, Meanwhile Premiums to secure copper in Europe have pushed above $100 a tonne as a scrap shortage, which earlier in January this year weresellingatdiscountof$100to$150 THE CHINA FACTOR SCRAPSHORTAGES 6 With Chinese smelters warning they may be forced to cut production unless they find more scrap, there is a risk we could end up with a temporary smelter bottleneck, In the US alone, copper scrap supplies have steadily thinned this year, with sales of high-grade bare bright scrapnowbeingmadeatthesamepricelevelasCOMEXJulycopper. But given the discrepancy between global mine production and global refined output, concentrate stocks are probably building. World mine production grew 14% in January, while global refined output rose 1.6%. Refined output is likely to continue underperforming given variousrefinerydisruptions. The increase in concentrate production somewhat offsets the tightness in scrap supply. But smelters need more scrap in the mix to blendoutimpurities andprocesslowergradeore, Moreover, scrap demand is increasing because of a sharp rise in physicalpremiumsforexchange-tradedcoppercathode. OUTLOOKFOR2ND HALFOF2013 The copper market is now shifting from a long period of constrained mine supply to one in which new mine capacity growth brings about thelong-awaitedreturnoftherefinedmarkettomoderatesurpluses, The sheer strength of January 2013 global copper mine supply growth took us by surprise, but refined production is lagging and scrap shortages could be a bottleneck, Combined with a maintenance shutdown at a big producer and a Chilean port strike, have led consumerstooutbidwarehousesforspotsupply. Copper demand has been weak in Europe this year due to poor to non- existent economic growth, while global copper supplies have been rising.Despitethis,asupplysqueezehasemerged. The copper market will post its first surplus since 2009 this year, as new and expanded smelters across China and Africa come on stream (ICGS)
  7. 7. 7 6 Citing declines in inventories and an anticipated improvement in sentiment on Chinese demand we may see prices to trade at $7500/t for 3 months & gradually increasing the 6 months target to $8,000/t as the second half generally sees a rise in economic expansions & manufacturing activities aroundtheglobe. ThefollowingtablesummarizestheforecastsoftheICSG. 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 1450 1753 2039 1057 1295 1506 251 258 269 2284 2351 2636 1647 1691 1826 2216 2270 2333 7109 7407 7675 3420 3637 3663 618 640 667 636 857 922 402 553 577 789 818 881 1945 2185 2388 8881 9295 9816 12195 12044 12541 546 551 571 439 462 465 100 101 102 826 832 837 2742 2691 2801 3073 3079 3182 852 875 901 1067 1091 1122 1154 1240 1273 1039 1145 1175 461 495 495 113 115 118 Africa N.America LatinAmerica Asean-10 AsiaexAsean/CIS Asia-CIS EU-27 Europe-Others Oceania REGIONS (in 1000 t) MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON COPPER IntheWeeklyChartpricesofCopperaretradingonapositivenotefromlast4-5weeks. Priceshavemadeahigh of462.95inSeptember2012andagainmadeahigh of450inDecember2012. Copper price have broken its major resistance of 412 last week and gave weekly closing above that level. Since then, prices have witnessed a sharp rally,andcurrentlytradingaround414levels. All the other technical tools are also confirming the trend. RSI also give a trend line breakout from bottom and ADX during breakout respectively givespositivesignal. The first support is situated at 400 and interim support is situated at 390. A renewed bearish trend will occur once the market sustains below 390 on theclosingbasis. Thenextresistanceisat450andclosingabovethatcouldtakethepriceto480-510.
  8. 8. 8 67747555 / 67547298 CALL PERFOMANCE FOR APRIL 2013 TotalNo.ofCalls:...................................................... 89 TargetAchieved:....................................................... 52 StoplossTriggered:................................................... 37 SuccessRatio:................................................... 58.4% US Event Calendar for the period 21st May to 20th June 2013 10th June • 17th June • • • Federal Budget Balance German ZEW Economic Sentiment Empire State Manufacturing Index NAHB Housing Market Index 28th May • 4th June • Consumer Confidence Trade Balance 11th June • • • • 18th June • • • • German WPI German Constitutional Court Ruling IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Wholesale Inventories m/m Building Permits Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Housing Starts 22nd May • • • • 29th May • • • 5th June • Existing Home Sales API Weekly Crude Stocks Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Meeting Minutes German Unemployment Change API Weekly Crude Stocks Crude Oil Inventories ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 12th June • • • • 19th June • • • • • Industrial Production m/m German Constitutional Court Ruling Crude Oil Inventories API Weekly Crude Stocks FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate Crude Oil Inventories API Weekly Crude Stocks 23rd May • • • • • 30th May • • • • 6th June • German Flash Manufacturing PMI Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Natural Gas Storage Prelim GDP q/q Unemployment Claims Pending Home Sales Natural Gas Storage German Factory Orders m/m 13th June • • • • • • 20th June • • • OPEC Meetings Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Claims Business Inventories m/m Natural Gas Storage FOMC Press Conference Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 24th May • • • 31st May • • • • • German Ifo Business Climate Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m German Retail Sales m/m EUR Unemployment Rate Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m S&P/ CS Composite -20 HPI y/y 14th June • • • • • • • PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Current Account TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 3rd June • • ISM Manufacturing PMI Construction Spending m/m M O N D A Y T U E S D A Y W E D N E S D A Y T H U R S D A Y F R I D A Y • • • • • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Factory Orders API Weekly Crude Stocks Crude Oil Inventories Beige Book • • • • EUR Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage • • 7th June • • • Chicago PMI Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment German Industrial Production m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate • • • CB Leading Index m/m Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage

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