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Commodities April 2013 Review


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Commodities April 2013 Review from VENTURA Commodities.
- VENTURA Column
- Top Stories
- Currency update
- Performance of select few commodities
- US Economy update
- Report on Jeera
- Event Calendar
- Call performance

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Commodities April 2013 Review

  1. 1. 1 Monthly ReviewApril 20th, 2013 Volume 7, Issue 3 Inside this issue Ventura Column Top Stories Currency Update March'13 Performance of Select Few Commodities US Economy Update Report on Jeera Event calendar Call Performance
  2. 2. 2 What does Open Interest mean? Mohammed imran Executive Research – (Bullions and Energy) Open Interest is the total number of outstanding contracts held by market participants at the end of the day. Alternatively, it is the total number of futures contractsthathavenotyetbeenexercised(squaredoff)orexpired. Open interest indicates the trend in the F&O market and measures the flow of money into the futures market. The open interest position represents the increase or decrease in the number of contracts for a day, and it is shown as a positiveornegativenumber. If we read open interest data with the price changes and volume in the market, wemaygetmeaningfulinformation. Herearethethumb rules- Prices will continue to rise when volume, prices and open interest are rising If prices are rising, but volume and open interest keeps falling- It means that anuptrendwouldgraduallyhalt. It's a weak market if the prices are falling, but volume and open interest are rising.Newmoneyisentering themarketintheformofshortsellers. And finally, when prices, volume and open interest are all declining, then we canassumethatthemarkethasalmostbottomedout. Advantages of monitoring Open Interest Changes in the Open Interest as mentioned earlier can help a trader interpret the future trend of a particular contract. Open Interest RISING -> Indicates that the present trend (up, down, flat) willcontinue Open Interest FALLING-> Indicates that the present trend(up, down, flat) is likelytochangeoriscomingtoanend THE USE OFOPEN INTEREST • • • • • • • Top Stories A'bail-in'savedCyprus.Butdarkdaysareahead. The political elites in Brussels can once again breathe a sigh of relief. Cyprus did not implode and take the euro with it. In many ways, the latest drama in Cyprus followed a familiar pattern: the so-called troika of European leadership (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) flew to a country on Europe's periphery to rescue its failing banks, that country's leadership balked, and then eventuallycavedtoBrussels'sdemands. In the past, the troika had rescued failing banks with taxpayer-financed bailouts, where shareholders took a hit but bondholders and depositors were left unscathed. This is the familiar model we saw in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and again in Greece. So what was different about Cyprus, and why did things turn sour? Well, this time, the troika changedthemodelfromabailouttoabail-in. Under the bailout model, taxpayers implicitly promise to bail out bank creditors and depositors when things go south. Accordingly, banks are regulated by the government, in order to protect taxpayers. By contrast, under the bail-in model, depositors and investors (who loan money to banks) must foot the bill and bail-in banks in times of trouble. This givesthemabigincentive tokeepawatchfuleyeoverbankers. Until now, Europe (and the U.S.) has chosen the bailout route. Banks were deemed too big to fail, and the public believed it. Indeed, in Cyprus, it was well known that several large banks were insolvent as early as the fall of 2011. Yet most depositors didn't run for the exits.Theythought thetaxpayers(inotherwords,Germany)wouldbailthemout. They were wrong. Despite the Cypriot rescue package being only a fraction of the size of previous euro-zone bailouts, European leadership decided that, this time, taxpayers would not be left footing the bulk of the bill for the risks taken by bankers. Rather than simply penalize EU taxpayers and the owners of Cypriot banks, the troika made the bail-in conditionalonawealthtaxonCypriotbankdepositorsandcreditors. The problem wasthat, in the original proposedbail-in deal,this tax would have applied to all bank deposits, including ones implicitly insured by the European Central Bank. This sent shock waves through the European banking system, as depositors throughout Europe wondered just how safe their insured deposits actually were. Fearing a financial panic, European leaders ultimately modified the program. As usual, in the eleventh hour, a deal was struck—one that preserved small, insured Cypriot deposits while exacting a hefty tax onlarger,uninsureddeposits. In the long run, this new model may represent an improvement. But the euro remains a creature of politics, not economics and finance, and only time will tell if European leaders will stick to the Cyprus bail-in model. For now, this uncertainty and the persistent pattern of governing by crisis will spawn continued anxiety for European savers and investors. This willonlyexacerbateEurope'screditcrunch,promisingweakeconomicgrowthgoingforward. Contrary to the relatively rosy picture being painted by European leaders, the Cypriot economy will be hit especially hard. By my estimate, Cyprus can expect its GDP to contract by 12.2 percent in 2013. For Cyprus, even if a financial apocalypse was averted, it appears thedarkestdaysareyettocome. 1 RupeeHits One-MonthHigh DollarFalls ToLowestLevelAgainstEuroSinceLateFebruary TheIndianrupeehitsone-monthhighagainsttheU.S.dollarcontinuing its strong run on expectations that a recent fall in commodity prices will help narrow the current-account deficit. The rupee has gained more than 1.0% as commodity prices, particularly those of crude oil andgold,fellheavilyonconcernofeconomicslowdowninChina. Crude oil and gold, India's top two commodity imports by value, are the biggest contributors to the current-account deficit, which swelled to a record 6.0% of gross domestic product in the October-December quarter. The current- account deficit is widely seen as the main drag on the rupee, which fell 3% against the dollarin2012afterfallingmorethan16%in2011. Lower commodity prices may also slow the pace of inflation, allowing the Reserve Bank of Indiatoeasemonetarypolicytoboostgrowth. The dollar is losing ground against its major European competitors. The risk appetite of investorshasincreased,asevidencedbythereboundinequities. Currency Update Contract Price Open Interest (%) Future Trend(predicts) Rising Rising The Contract is likely to trade strong in the coming days Rising Falling The Contract is likely to see some downside in the coming days Falling Rising The Contract should not be entered as of now Falling Falling The Contract can be entered, as its likely to go up TrendOpen Interest VolumePrice Strong up Strong down Weak up Weak down * Open interest often falls when big uptrends end with a crash as longs liquidate.
  3. 3. 3 US Economy Update 2 MARCH '13 PERFORMANCE OF SELECT FEW COMMODITIES Commodity Contract 1stMarch Rate 30th March Rate % Change Gold 05th Apr 29717 29394 Silver 04th May 54946 53072 Crude Oil 19th Apr 5058 5400 Natural Gas 25h Apr 195.9 221.9 Copper 30th Apr 430.45 410.1 -1.09 -3.41 -4.73 6.76 13.27 ManufacturinginU.S.GrewforThirdMonthinFebruaryTO54.2 TradeGapinU.S.WidenedonCostlierEnergyImport PayrollsRoseasU.S.EmployersLookedPastBudgetCuts Consumersentimenthitbyfiscal policy concernsinMarch Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in February for a third month as businesses invested more in new equipment. A reading of 54.2 which was projected for the Institute for Supply Management's factory index after a nine-month high of 53.1 in January. The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in January from a three-year low as costlier crude oil lifted the import bill. The gap expanded to $44.4 billion from December's $38.5 billion that was the smallest shortfall sinceJanuary2010. Sustained spending gains by U.S. consumers and businesses, will probably keep driving up imports this year even as oil costs moderate. Overseas purchases of American-made goods, which help to contain the trade gap, are also poised to rise as nations from Europe to China use stimulus measures to revive growth. With increasing oil prices, the trade gap tends to widen. U.S. economy is looking for the trade deficit to return to a level consistent with growing importdemandandexportdemandfromabroad. Payrolls probably grew in February, a sign U.S. employers were undaunted by the budget impasse in Washington as sales rose. An additional 165,000 workers were hired last month after a 157,000 increase in January. Consistent with the moderate pace of economic growth, conditions in the labor market have been improving gradually. A recovery in house prices and a need to enlarge the supply of homes for salehasstirredconstructionactivity. Consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest since December 2011 in early March, hit by dissatisfaction with government economic policies and as fewer Americans expected to see improvements in growth or the labor market. University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment There was also some much better than expected U.S. economic data released, including housingstartsandindustrialproduction. With new construction of multi-family homes showing a substantial increase, showing that housing starts in the U.S. increased by much more than anticipated in themonthofMarch. The Commerce Department said housing starts jumped 7.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.036 million in March from the revised February estimate of 968,000. Economists had expected housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 930,000 fromthe917,000originallyreportedforthepreviousmonth. Consumer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a modest decrease in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department, with the drop largelyduetoasharpdecreaseinenergyprices. The International Monetary Fund trimmed its growth projections for the global economy as it saw a three-speed recovery evolving mainly owing to the diverging pathsoftheU.S.andtheeuroarea. The U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.9 percent this year, which is smaller than the 2 percent expansion forecast in January. The growth forecast for next year was leftunchangedat3percent. Within Eurozone, France, Italy and Spain are forecast to witness economic contractions this year. Germany is expected to log 0.6 percent growth. The insufficient progress toward stronger economic and monetary union could lead to aslowerthanexpectedrecovery,theIMFwarned. The IMF raised the forecast for Japan to 1.6 percent growth this year from 1.2 percent expected earlier, citing the new government's aggressive monetary stimulus plans. Next year, the Japanese economy is seen growing 1.4 percent, doublethe0.7percentexpansionseenearlier. dropped to 71.8 from 77.6 in February, short of expectations for 78. Across-the- board government spending cuts of $85 billion went into effect at the beginning of themonthafterU.S.lawmakersfailedtocometoanewdeal. Builders began work on more houses in February and permits for future construction climbed to the highest level in almost five years, pointing to a sustained rebound that will help power the U.S. expansion. Advances in residential construction will probably give an even bigger boost to growth this year than in 2012, when it contributed for the first time in seven years. The gains are rippling through the economy as improving property values help restore consumer confidence and benefit builders and home- improvement retailers, offsetting some of the damage from governmentcutbacks. Sales at U.S. retailers climbed twice as much as forecast in February, showing improving job prospects are helping consumers and the economy overcome higher taxes and gasoline prices. The sequestration and the cutbacks will hurt and take some toll. The home resale market is also experiencing lean inventories. The recovery in the sector is being supported by record-low mortgage rates, which have been held down by the FederalReserve'sveryaccommodativemonetarypolicystance. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 0.4 percent to 104.8 in February from a downwardly revised 105.2 in January, but is 8.4 percent higher than February 2012 when it was 96.6. Contract activity has been above year-ago levels for the past 22 months; the data reflect contracts but not closings. Before January, the last time the index showed a higher reading was in April 2010 when it was 110.9, shortly before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about20percentoftransactionsforexisting-home sales. GainsinBuildingPermitsSignalSustainedU.S.HousingRebound SalesatU.S.RetailersAdvancebyMostinFiveMonths PendingHome SalesSliponConstrainedInventory Commodity Contract 1stMarch Rate 30th March Rate % Change Nickel 30th Apr 927.3 911.5 Zinc 30th Apr 112.2 102.9 Kapas 30th Apr 975 953.5 Jeera 20th May 13047.5 13187.5 Ref.Soya oil 20th May 669.6 679.55 -1.7 -8.29 -2.21 1.07 1.49
  4. 4. 4 3 INTRODUCTION JEERA CULTIVATION PATTERN Cumin seed commonly known as Jeera (Cuminum cyminum) belongs to Apiacae family.Though Cumin is a native of Egypt, it now mostly produced in India. India is the largest producer and consumer of Jeera (cumin seed) in the world. Jeera is an ancient spice having a history of over 5000 years and referred as native to the historical Levant region andnorthernEgypt. Cumin (jeera), the second most important spice in the world after pepper, is grown for its seeds, which are used in various cuisines. It is mainly grown in the Mediterranean region, including India, Syria, TurkeyandChina. Jeera is a tropical plant and grown in cooler regions which is best suited for sandy soil. It is grown from the seed. It requires less water and more cold for its better growth with ideal temperature of 25 to 30 degree. High humidity during flowering & fruit set, causes fungal diseasesinthiscrop. The cumin crop can be produced on almost all soil types but the soil, which suits the best to this crop, is a well-drained, fertile sandy soil type. It needs a minimum of 3 to 4 months of duration period after whichitisharvested. JEERA The plant becomes mature and ready to harvest when it turns yellowish brown. After the crop gets harvested, the cumin seeds are cleanedupthrough thewinnowing process. Jeera crop is highly sensitive to rain, if rain occurs during harvesting time (February to March) quality of the Jeera will be badly affected and which affects production also. It will turn black color and fetches lowestpriceinthemarket. It had a major role as a flavoring, spice and medicinal uses throughout history. Cumin is used mainly where highly spiced foods are preferred. It features in Indian, Eastern, Middle Eastern, Mexican, Portuguese and Spanish cookery. Cumin is often grounded to mix with other spices andtouseinvariouscuisines. Improved varieties like S-404, MC-43. Gujarat Jeera-1 (GC-1), GC-2, GC-3, RS-1, UC- 198, RZ-19, etc., evolved by Agricultural Universities of Gujarat and Rajasthan having higher yield potential are useful for cultivation. The maturity varies between 110 and 115 days depending onthevariety. Jeera is packed in gunny bags and each bag contains 55 kg weight of jeera seed. Before packing in the jute bags, it is cleaned by machines in order to remove the stalks, other foreign material, stones, dust etc. Generally jeera is harvested manually, and that is why before packagingitisrequiredtobecleanedproperlyandcutbymachine. During storage, jeera absorbs moisture immediately. Therefore, it is advisable to store it in one-layer plastic coated bags. Jeera is also packed sometimes in cloth, paper or polythene bags depending on the requirements of the buyer. It is preserved at least one to two feet away from the walls in order to save it from moisture. The jute bags arestakedoverwoodencartonorplasticsheetformoresecurity. India has ever been the world spice home and has always been renowned for the best and expensive variety of spices that are produced in the country. The similar reputation is repeated in the case of jeera or cumin seeds. Being the largest producer, consumer and exporter of jeera in the world, India claims to be the most dominating playerintheworldmarketscenario. USESOFJEERA JEERA VARIETIES PACKAGINGANDSTORAGE DOMESTICSCENARIO
  5. 5. 5 4 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13E` 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 PRODUCTION & AREA OF JEERA IN INDIA YEARS AREAHECT&PRODUCTIONINTONNES Jeera is Rabi crop it is generally sowed in the month of October and November and it get harvested after 4months (110 to 120 days) in the monthofFeburaryandMarch. The production of jeera in India hovers around 1.5 to 2 lakh metric tons as it also has the maximum area granted to the cultivation of this spice. Gujarat scores the highest production in the country constituting to 70% of the total production in the country. The trend of production is observed to be in a rising trend.The domestic consumption demand of the spice in the country is around 80% production and the rest of the productionisusedforexportpurposes. PRODUCTION& AREAOFJEERA JEERA CROP CALENDAR Country INDIA Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Harvesting Sowing CROP CALENDAR GUJARAT 70% RAJASTHAN 25% OTHERS 5% JEERA PRODUCING STATES Banaskantha and Mehsana in Gujarat and Barmer, Jalore, Jodhpur andNagaurinRajasthanarethebiggestproducersofjeera. ARRIVALS & MAJOR TRADING CENTRE JEERA ARRIVALS IN UNJHA (MEHSANA) 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 250 200 150 100 50 0 YEARS FIGINTONNES 114.6 195.3 21.9 96 177.7 In 2012, the domestic prices witnessed a roller coaster ride due to higher production and surge in export demand. The prices plummeted around 33% in the first quarter of 2012 (calendar year) due to a sharp riseinproductionbyabout34%to38lakhbags(1bag=55kg). India's 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each),atparwiththeproductionin2012 According to Gujarat State Agri. Dept., Jeera sowing area is around 3, 24,400 ha. Three year average of total sowing is around 3, 18,900 ha in Gujarat. Last year saw production of bumper crop and total 3, 64,000ha.areawasunderJeeraCultivation. MAJORPRODUCINGSTATESIN INDIA In India Jeera is cultivated in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan,Uttar Pradesh,Punjab and Tamil Nadu.,But Jeera grow abundantly in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to its favorable climatic condition,they contribute around95%oftotaljeeraproduction.
  6. 6. 5 India is largest exporter, but face stiff competition from Syria and Turkey as they have more export surplus. India exports only 20 percent of its domestic production. Exports have seen strong growth in last six years,that is since launch of futures trading and touched record high of 52550MT in 2008-09, four times higher than 2005 with quantityisbeneficialfordomesticfarmers. JEERA EXPORTS FROM INDIA 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13E` 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 12879 26042 28000 52550 49750 32500 45500 60000JEERA EXPORT FROM INDIA YEARS QTYINTONNES 70% 16% 5% 4% 3%2% JEERA PRODUCING COUNTRIES INDIA SYRIA TURKEY CHINA IRAN OTHERS As per the production data ,India's share is 70% to global production, while that of Syria, Turkey, China and Iran has been 16%, 5%, 4% and 3%respectively. CROP CALENDAR Countries Sowing Duration Harvesting Turkey Nov-Dec 4months(110-120days) April-May Syria Dec-Jan 4months(110-120days) May-June Iran Dec-Jan 4months(110-120days) May-June The new crop in Syria and Turkey is harvested in May-June, so until then, Indian jeera will find good market in overseas countries. The global market for jeera shows a lower pressure during June -July due toarrivalpressurefromSyria,TurkeyandIran. March to July is the peak arrival season of cumin in India. Unjha market in the state of Gujarat is the major trading center for cumin seeds. Most of the traders are concentrated in this market. This market has a share of over 80% among the primary markets. In Unjha, as many as 15 grades are being traded. Hence, prices are varying widely. The other primary markets are Jodhpur, Jaipur and Kota (in Rajasthan). On the other hand, Delhi, Rajkot and Mumbai are the major terminal markets for Cumin, from where it moves to other consumption centers ofthecountry. This year exports target of 45,000 tn has already been achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn. Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have been divertedtoIndia. UK, USA, Brazil, UAE,Nepal, Malaysia and Pakistan are the main markets for India's Jeera. These countries together account for 44 percentofthecountry'sJeeraexports. Out of total Global production of Jeera ,India contributes about 70- 75% of total output. Other major producers are Syria, Turkey ,China and Iran. These countries are net exporting countries and are major competitorsforIndia. GLOBALSCENARIO 6
  7. 7. 7 6 SPOT MARKET PRICE OF JEERA Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 July-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 10th Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 127301346013982 15975 15606 1443815043 15017 14830 14000 13322 1334313763 JEERA SPOT PRICE Rs/Quintal Similar Upside trend is expected in the coming months From the above chart we analyse that from the month of april prices likely to shoot up as the harvesting season is about to end and jeera arrivalsaregoingtodropinthemarketwhichcouldshootuptheprices. India's 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgseach),atparwiththeproductionin2012. The government of Rajasthan has exempted Jeera from value added tax, might result in cheaper availability of jeera which may attractbulkbuyers. In Rajasthan new arrivals have started,export and upcountry demand in spot market is still strong but increasing new crop arrivalcanpressurizetheprice. India Spices Board has set the target to export 45,000 tons cumin seed, which has been achieved and export is still continued and itisexpectedthatexportmaybearound60,000tons. Lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have beendivertedtoIndia. CURRENT SCENARIO • • • • • 6 NAME TREND CMP SUPPORT KEY LEVELS RESISTANCE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 JEERA BULLISH 13740 13400 13050 12800 14150 14900 15300 15700 SYRIA:ThesecondlargestproducerofJeera Syria is the second largest producer of Jeera contributing 16% to the global production. Syria has been a major competitor for India along with Turkey as the quality of produces is considered at par with that of India,hencegiveastiffcompetition forIndianJeeraexports. 2010 2011 2012 2013E 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 35000 40000 21250 17000 SYRIA JEERA PRODUCTION Years FiginMT In Syria there is shortage of laborers and due to unfavorable weather conditionsjeeraproductionisexpectedat17000tons,lowerby20%. Seasonal variation : Price tends to be lower as harvesting progresses and produce starts coming into the market. At the time of sowing and before harvesting price tends to rise in view of tight supplysituation. Temperature,rainfallandsoilmoistureinthecultivating areas. Structureofthemarket. Stockiestandspeculators. FlowofInformation. Productionatotherproducingcountries. DemandandSupplyscenario. MARKETINFLUENCING FACTOR • • • • • • • OUTLOOK Increased in the production of Jeera in the domestic markets and lower output in Syria and Turkey a major exporting countries of the world, India hasagoodoppurtunity toexport theirsurplusstocksintheglobalmarkets.Thus,weexpectJeerapricestoremainfirmintheshorttomediumterm
  8. 8. 8 67747555 / 67547298 CALL PERFOMANCE FOR MARCH 2013 TotalNo.ofCalls:.......................................................65 TargetAchieved:........................................................32 StoplossTriggered:.................................................... 23 SuccessRatio:.................................................. 49.23% US Event Calendar for the period 21st April to 20th May 2013 6th May • 13th May • • • EUR Retail Sales m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Business Inventories m/m 23rd April • • • • 30th April • • • German Flash Manufacturing PMI EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales GfK German Consumer Climate German Unemployment Change Unemployment Rate 7th May • • 14th May • EU Economic Forecast German Factory Orders m/m EUR Industrial Production m/m 24th April • • • • 1st May • • • • • • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Crude Oil Inventories API Weekly Crude Stocks EUR Final Manufacturing PMI ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ISM Manufacturing PMI Construction Spending m/m Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Statement 8th May • • • 15th May • • • • • • • • German Industrial Production m/m Crude Oil Inventories API Weekly Crude Stocks German ZEW Economic Sentiment Crude Oil Inventories EUR CPI y/y EUR Core CPI y/y PPI m/m TIC Long-Term Purchases Industrial Production m/m API Weekly Crude Stocks 25th April • • 2nd May • • • • • Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage EUR Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage 9th May • • • • 16th May • • • • • • • • Unemployment Claims Wholesale Inventories m/m Natural Gas Storage Federal Budget Balance EUR Trade Balance Building Permits Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m Housing Starts Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Natural Gas Storage 26th April • • • 3rd May • • • • German Retail Sales m/m Advance GDP q/q Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Factory Orders m/m 10th May • • 17th May • German WPI m/m G7 Meetings Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 22nd April • 29th April • • • Existing Home Sales Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Pending Home Sales m/m M O N D A Y T U E S D A Y W E D N E S D A Y T H U R S D A Y F R I D A Y • • • • Employment Cost Index q/q S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y Chicago PMI CB Consumer Confidence • • Federal Funds Rate API Weekly Crude Stocks