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Guy Spier VIF 2008.

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Guy Spier, Managing Partner,

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Guy Spier VIF 2008.

  1. 1. Guy Spier May, 2008
  2. 2. Cumulative Return (Net of Fees Since Inception Sep, 1997)300%200%100% 0% Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc. Returns are based on estimated results as of 12/31/07. Fund DJIU S&P 500 FT 100
  3. 3. Aquamarine Compound Annualized Net Returns (as of 12/31/07) Aquamarine Fund S&P 50030%20%10%0% 10-year 5-year 2-year Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc. Returns are based on estimated results as of 12/31/07.
  4. 4. Aquamarine Fund Inc. Portfolio Concentration (% of net assets)120%100%80%60%40%20% 0% Top 5 Top 10 Total Invested Cash Positions Positions
  5. 5. Aquam arine Capital Assets Under Managem ent ($ in millions)$100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5
  6. 6. Aquamarine Capital Management, LLCRealized gains and losses since inception Realized Gains = $45.3 mm Realized Losses = $(1.8)
  7. 7. 20 Punch Card1. Neue Zurcher Zeitung 10. Nestle2. Edipresse 11. Weetabix 12. Heineken3. Duff and Phelps4. Moodys 13. Kinder Morgan5. Crisil 14. Plains Resources 15. Crosstex Energy6. Investment Technology Group 16. DeVry 17. EVCI7. RLI Insurance 18. Raffles Education8. Berkshire9. Aflac 7
  8. 8. 8
  9. 9. Focus on Great Businesses Consumer Brands Education Credit Rating Insurance Networks/Infrastructure 9
  10. 10. 10
  11. 11. Common Characteristics Our Investment Candidates: – Are cash generative (not dependent on raising additional capital) – Have minimal or no leverage – Are run by honest management (must allocate capital well) – Publish financial reports in English – Have a very wide moat  Low cost operator  Pricing power/product differentiation  Other sustainable competitive advantage – Have a margin of safety between market price and intrinsic value Uncommon characteristics, but can be found all over the world if one is willing to look 11
  12. 12. Consumer BrandsConsumables Aspiration BrandsNestle NikeWeetabix PumaParmalat AdidasAlaska Milk AsicsSmart Balance K-SwissNamYang Dairy Everlast Under Armor 12
  13. 13. 14
  14. 14. Investment Example – Nestle SAPurchasePrices$120 –$145 Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. *Adjusted for Splits. 15
  15. 15. Weetabix Sold GBP 54.75InitialPurchasePrice GBP21 - 30 Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. 17
  16. 16. 19
  17. 17. Education1. DeVry 1. Raffles Education2. Corinthian Colleges 2. IBT Education3. Career Education 3. Nord Anglia Education4. Laureate 4. Stamford College Berhad5. Education Management 5. NIIT6. Argosy Education 6. Kroton7. EVCI Career Colleges 7. AdvTech8. UTI 8. Far Eastern University 20
  18. 18. Investment Example – DeVry, Inc. Sale Prices $28.00 – $58.00InitialPurchasePrices$15.00 –$32.00 Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P . 21
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  21. 21. Investment Example – Raffles Education Sold 80% (RLS – Singapore Exchange) of Position $1.10 - $1.15InitialPurchasePrice$0.25 –$0.30* Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. *Adjusted for Spin Offs and Splits. 26
  22. 22. Consumer BrandsConsumables Aspiration BrandsNestle NikeWeetabix PumaParmalat AdidasAlaska Milk AsicsSmart Balance K-SwissNamYang Dairy Everlast Under Armor 28
  23. 23. 29
  24. 24. Investment Example – NikeInitialPurchasePrice$41 - $43 Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. 30
  25. 25. 31
  26. 26. 32
  27. 27. Investment Example – Everlast Acquired $33InitialPurchasePrice$17 - $20 Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. 33
  28. 28. Credit Rating Duff and Phelps Dun and Bradstreet Moody’s Midroog Crisil ICRA Xinhua Finance Pefindo Kis Info 34
  29. 29. Duff and Phelps Credit Rating Sale Price $100PurchasePrice $15.15 Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. 35
  30. 30. Moody’sInitialPurchasePrice$10-$12* Initial Purchase Price Adjusted for Spin Off from Dunn and Bradstreet. Source: Bloomberg, Aquamarine Fund, Inc., Aquamarine Master Fund, L.P. 36
  31. 31. CRISIL (CRISIL – Credit Rating of India)PurchasePrices$120 –$550 37
  32. 32. Insurance Berkshire Hathaway AIG Aflac Bancinsurance Direct General IDI (Israel Direct Insurance) 38
  33. 33. 43
  34. 34. 44
  35. 35. ConclusionsAlign Incentives With Investors 90% of my family’s net worth invested in the fund No significant other investments Family a substantial proportion of the fund Managers should be principals, not just agents 49
  36. 36. Meeting with Buffett – new share class 0% of the Assets 25% of the profits above 6% 1 year rolling lockup 50
  37. 37. Gracias ! 51

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