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By the Number: Lowndes County in 2040

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Presentation given to the 2014 Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit.

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By the Number: Lowndes County in 2040

  1. 1. By the Numbers: Lowndes County in 2040 Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Summit August 2014
  2. 2. The Art of Site Selection
  3. 3. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
  4. 4. 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study • Transportation, Economic Development, Land Use, Housing • Planning for the Future • Infrastructure Improvements • Need for Services • Federal and State Regulations • Partnership - MPO, County, Cities
  5. 5. 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study • What will Lowndes County look like in 2040? • 5 Year Increments; 2010-2040 • Population • Housing • Employment (broad) • Foundation for planning and growth strategies
  6. 6. 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study • Transportation (Req.) – Population – Households – Median HH Income – Employment • Manufacturing • Wholesale • Service • Retail – Student Enrollment • Additional Data – Race/Sex/Age – Housing Ownership – Housing Type – Housing Units – Housing Type – Household Size – Housing Vacancy – Unemployment – Educational Attainment – Labor Force
  7. 7. Population 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Total Population 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
  8. 8. Population – Race 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Race in Lowndes County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 White Black American Indian Asian Other Multi Racial
  9. 9. Population – Hispanic Ethnicity 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Hispanic Ethnicity in Lowndes County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Hispanic
  10. 10. Population Observations • By 2030 Whites will be in the minority • Hispanic population expected to double • Lowndes County will be more diverse, multi-racial
  11. 11. Population – Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Age by Year Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  12. 12. Population – School Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Lowndes County Population - School Ages Under 5 5-13 14-24 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  13. 13. School Enrollment 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Lowndes County School Enrollment 24,000 Total Students 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  14. 14. Educational Attainment 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Lowndes County HS Education 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED
  15. 15. Educational Attainment 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% High School Only % over 25 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED
  16. 16. Educational Attainment 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Advanced Education in Lowndes County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Some College Associates Bachelors Graduate
  17. 17. Educational Attainment 2014 2040 Less than 9th Grade 2.9% 0% Less than HS 16.5% 3.9% HS Diploma/GED 31.8% 29.5% Some College 20.9% 28.4% Associates 6.9% 9.6% Bachelor’s 13.4% 18.4% Graduate 7.6% 9.82% 2014: EMSI 2Q2014, Georgia Power, The are of Site Selection
  18. 18. Population – Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Age by Year Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  19. 19. Education Observations • School aged children live here • After college, large numbers leave • Where to put all of these students – Traditional vs. Online Classes? • HS only education continues to rise, but fall as a percentage of total adults (30%)
  20. 20. Population – Workforce 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Lowndes County Workforce 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 35-54 will be the workforce
  21. 21. Employment Sectors • Service (everything that is not below) – Military, government, education, healthcare, etc. • Retail • Manufacturing • Wholesale Michael Rivera
  22. 22. Employment 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Employment Sectors 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment
  23. 23. Employment 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Manufacturing Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Wholesale Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  24. 24. Employment 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Service Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Retail Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  25. 25. Employment 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Employment Sectors 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment
  26. 26. Employment 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Labor Force and Unemployment 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Labor Force Unemployment %
  27. 27. Employment – Commuting 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Daytime Population vs Resident Population 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Daytime Population Total Pop 11,300
  28. 28. Population – Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Age by Year Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  29. 29. Employment Observations • 2015 – 25-34 is largest employed population, by 2040 35-54 is largest group • All sectors grow, just not as much as Service • Is unemployment in the 6-7% range the new norm? • Regional economy with commuters, need the infrastructure to support
  30. 30. Owner vs. Renter 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Owner vs. Renter Occupancy 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Owner Renter
  31. 31. Housing Type 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Housing Type 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Single Family Multi-Family Manufactured
  32. 32. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
  33. 33. Aspirant Communities – Population* Rank County Metro State Population Growth %* 1 Lee Opelika AL 85.46% 2 Houston Warner Robins GA 58.80% 3 Warren Bowling Green KY 49.70% 4 Montgomery Clarksville TN 47.56% 5 Morgan Decatur AL 34.78% 6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 34.76% 7 Clarke Athens GA 33.09% 8 Nash Rocky Mount NC 21.90% 9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 21.55% 10 Floyd Rome GA 20.26% 11 Florence Florence SC 13.62% 12 Houston Dothan AL 8.54% 13 Rapides Alexandria LA 6.21% 14 Ouachita Monroe LA 4.13% 15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data *Change from base year to future year *2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
  34. 34. Aspirant Communities – Employment* Rank County Metro State Employment Growth %* 1 Lee Opelika AL 104.42% 2 Florence Florence SC 58.21% 3 Montgomery Clarksville TN 52.41% 4 Houston Warner Robins GA 48.90% 5 Warren Bowling Green KY 44.42% 6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 40.01% 7 Clarke Athens GA 38.29% 8 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 36.48% 9 Morgan Decatur AL 34.79% 10 Houston Dothan AL 29.38% 11 Floyd Rome GA 19.66% 12 Rapides Alexandria LA 18.28% 13 Ouachita Monroe LA 10.00% 14 Nash Rocky Mount NC 0.00% 15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data *2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
  35. 35. Aspirant Communities – Overall* Sum County Metro State 1 Lee Opelika AL 2 Houston Warner Robins GA 3 Montgomery Clarksville TN 4 Warren Bowling Green KY 5 Lowndes Valdosta GA 6 Florence Florence SC 7 Morgan Decatur AL 7 Clarke Athens GA 9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 10 Floyd Rome GA 11 Nash Rocky Mount NC 11 Houston Dothan AL 13 Rapides Alexandria LA 14 Ouachita Monroe LA 15 Wayne Goldsboro NC *2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
  36. 36. So where are we going? 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
  37. 37. Common Community Vision A resilient community where partnerships and coordination promote regional success in economic development, education, infrastructure, and a high quality of life.
  38. 38. Common Community Vision • Support Economic Engines • Workforce Training – technical and career skills, public/private partnerships • Encourage small businesses • Regional strategy • Education -> 21st Century workforce • Coordinated Governments Services
  39. 39. Where does Transportation Fit? • Partnerships and Resources • Transportation Infrastructure – Promote ED, private investment • Improve walkability and bikeability • Regional Connectivity • Multi-modal transportation system – Public transit, public/private partnerships, safety, airport services
  40. 40. 2040 Transportation Vision Plan • August-September 2014; Public Input • Project Selection/Prioritization • Travel Demand Model Development • Multi-modal transportation options • June-August 2015; Final Public Input • September 2015; Adoption of Plan
  41. 41. Corey Hull, AICP Southern Georgia Regional Commission Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization chull@sgrc.us www.sgrc.us/transportation

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