Project Management Uncertainty, Presented by upul chanaka from Sri Lanka
Managing Project Uncertainty
What is Project Uncertainty?
Risk management is the practice of identifying,
evaluating and controlling those factors to avoid
potential negative effects.
What is Risk Management ?
Uncertainty is ability to predict outcome of
parameters or foresee events that may impact the
project and It can be risk or opportunity.(negative
effects, positive effects )
What is Risk ?
Possible negative outcome.
THE FOUR TYPES OF UNCERTAINTIES
Simply variation means the difference between
the project plan & the working project schedule
as well as the budget of the project.
It will be occur due to many reasons. Such as
poor estimations, worker sickness, weather,
delayed parts delivery, unanticipated difficulty
of tasks & etc.
It is the duty of the project manager to reduce
the variation as possible.
Otherwise the time, cost & the scope of the
project will not going to behave in the project
as we planned previously.
While doing a project there are uncertainties that
the project management team can identify &
predict what will be going to happen in future
according to their experiences as well as analysing
the historical data.
Those kind of identifiable, understandable
uncertainties are known as foreseen uncertainty.
Pharmaceutical development is an area that really
pays an attention on foreseen uncertainty. It is
essential to detect and manage risks, primarily in
the form of drug side effects.
A developer of a new drug can anticipate
possible side effects because they have
appeared previously in related drugs.
Then the developers can make contingency plans
to change the prescribed dosage or restrict usage
to for the drug.
The side effect is the foreseen uncertainty. The
contingency plan may never be used, but it is
there if the side effect occurs
• Unforeseen uncertainty means risk that can’t be
identified during project planning
In the case of unforeseen uncertainties, the project
manager does not have a predefined response to the
event, either because the manager is not aware of the
possibility of the event and also Unforeseen uncertainty
makes urgent planning more difficult because not all
influence factors can be anticipated.
In this situation relevant technologies will be an
essential task to be carried out in the project , therefore
The project manager often need to good knowledge
about the technology.
Chaos refers to the fundamental uncertainty about
the basic structure of the project plan itself. There
is no good understand for the final outcome or
there is no formula about the project.
A well-known example is Sun’s development of Java.
It was conceived in 1991 as the driver of a controlling
device for household appliances ( “super remote
control with GUI”), but in 1995 ended up as a page
programming language for the world-wide web,
something that did not even exist in 1991 at the start
of the project.
WHAT IS AN UNCERTAINTY PROFILE
• A Qualitative explanation of how each type of uncertainty
may affect the project.
• Creating an Uncertainty profile for each project, makes it
more easier to respond with a urgent plan.
• It can be helped to identify which uncertainty type
should we more focus on and what are the most
common uncertainty types