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United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western AsiaUnited Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
KHALID ABU-ISMAIL
NIRANJAN SARANGI
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBALIZATION DIVISION
OCTOBER 2014
Poverty and inequality in the
Arab Region
Page 2 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
1. Knowledge gap
1. Political economy and social justice narrative: traditional social
contract is essentially based on reducing inequalities.
2. Despite its importance, very little attention to measurement and in
countries where there is regular measurement (GCC), data access is
forbidden.
3. Even where data is made available, its hard to tell a story and
results don’t make sense.
Page 3 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
1. Inequality in expenditure
Page 4 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
Conventional wisdom: Low and stagnant
inequality
A B
30.9
41.0
38.1
34.3
32.9
39.5
34.0
34.7
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Mashreq
Maghreb
LDC
Arab region
1990s 2000s
34.3
38.1
35.8
51.8
32.4
44.7
38.2
34.7
35.9
36.1
54.9
30.8
45.5
37.2
0.0 10.020.030.040.050.060.0
Arab region
East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Developing Region
1990 2010
Gini index across Arab sub-regions (A), and across regions globally (B), 1990s and 2000s
Source: ESCWA estimates based on The World Bank 2012a.
Page 5 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
Not everybody shared the benefits of growth
Ratio between per capita expenditure from national household final expenditure and survey based
household expenditure per capita
0.74
1.14
1.96
2.62
1.00
1.14 1.16
1.39
1.82
2.22
1.42 1.45
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1998 2006 2000 2011 1997 2007 2002 2010 2000 2010 2005 2010
Yemen Egypt Syria Jordan Oman Tunisia
Source: ESCWA calculations based on data are from Household Budget Surveys of respective countries; World Bank 2014 for data on
national household final consumption expenditure.
Page 6 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
The rich versus the rest: a story of rising
inequality
Source: ESCWA calculations based on data are from Household Budget Surveys of respective countries; World Bank 2014 for data on
national household final consumption expenditure.
Ratio between per capita expenditure from national household final expenditure (pfce) and survey
based household expenditure per capita (pce)
3.4
7.4
13.7
16.2
7.1 7.7
8.9
9.6 10.1
11.0
14.9
14.3
2.1
4.5
9.2
11.3
4.6 5.0
5.8 6.1 6.1
7.3
9.0
8.0
1.5
3.0
5.7
7.4
2.6 3.1 2.9 3.4
4.3 4.7 4.3 3.8
0.7
1.1
2.0
2.6
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2
1.4 1.4
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
1998 2006 2000 2011 1997 2007 2002 2010 2000 2010 2005 2010
Yemen Egypt Syria Jordan Oman TunisiaRich pfce/ Poor pce Rich pfce/ vulnerable pce
Rich pfce/ Middle class pce Rich pfce /Affluent pce
Page 7 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.2
0.6
1
1.25
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.6
6
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
8
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.6
10
P0 (%) World East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Arab Countries
Poverty measurement is particularly important for Arab
countries
Page 8 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
2. Measuring inequality in
capabilities
Page 9 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
73.9
29.3
6.0
14.2
2.4
61.7
10.6
81.2
1.4 5.5 2.8 0.6
52.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Comoros
Djibouti
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Mauritania
Morocco
Somalia
StateofPalestine
Syria
Tunisia
UnitedArab
Emirates
Yemen
Global MPI shows negligible poverty rates
for most Arab countries
Page 10 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
Tailoring the MPI – revision of deprivation
thresholds of indicators
Dimension Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Education
Years of schooling Deprived if no
adult household
member has
completed 5 years
of schooling
Deprived if no adult
household member
has completed 8
years of schooling
Deprived if no adult
household member
has completed 12
years of schooling
School attendance Deprived if any
school age (7 to 15)
child is not
attending school in
grades 1 to 8 of
school
Deprived if any child
age (7 to 17) is not
attending school
Deprived if any child
age (7 to 17) is not
attending school or
If any child 7 to 17
years is two years or
more behind in the
right school grade
Page 11 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
Tailoring the MPI – revision of deprivation
thresholds of indicators
Dimension Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Health
Infant and child
mortality
Deprived if any child
(under age 5) has died
in the family within 5
years prior to survey
Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1
Nutrition Deprived if any adult or
child for whom there is
nutritional information is
child’s height-for-age is
below minus two standard
deviations from the
international median,
adult BMI less than 18.5)
Deprived if any adult or
child for whom there is
nutritional information is
child’s height-for-age is or
weight for age below minus
two standard deviations
from the international
median, adult BMI less than
18.5)
Deprived if first or second
level of deprivation
or
Weight for height above 2
SD of the median for
children or adult BMI is 30
or above
Immunization - Deprived if any child 12
months or more not fully
immunized against BCG,
DPT, polio and measles
If any child 12-23 months
not fully immunized or If
any child 24-59 months not
fully immunized and did
not take MMR and
Hepatitis B
Female health Age of first pregnancy less
than 18 years
Age of first pregnancy less
than 18 years
Page 12 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
Tailoring the MPI – revision of deprivation
thresholds of indicators
Dimension Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Housing and Assets Electricity (MPI) Deprived if no electricity Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1
Drinking water
(MPI)
Deprived if HH does not have
access to clean water or more
than 30 minutes’ walk
Deprived if HH does not have well
or public tap
Deprived if HH does not have
piped water to house
Sanitation (MPI) Deprived if household toilet is
shared with others who are not
members of their household or
used unimproved toilet
Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1
Flooring (MPI) Deprived if natural flooring
(earth, sand, dung)
Deprived if earth or “rudimentary
flooring” (wood planks/bamboo)
Deprived if earth or “rudimentary
flooring” or “cement
floor/asphalt”
Cooking fuel (MPI) Deprived if the household cooks
with wood, charcoal or dung and
does not have a designated space
for cooking
Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1
Assets ownership
(MPI)
Not having at least one asset
related to access to information
(radio, TV, telephone, internet,
computer, tablet) and not having
at least one asset related to
mobility (bike, motorbike, car,
truck, animal cart, motorboat)
and at least one asset related to
livelihood (refrigerator, arable
land, livestock. AC, heater)
Not having at least one asset
related to access to information
(radio, TV, telephone, internet,
computer, tablet) and not having at
least one asset related to mobility
(bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal
cart, motorboat) and at least one
asset related to livelihood
(refrigerator, arable land, livestock.
AC, heater)
Not having at least one asset
related to access to information
(radio, TV, telephone, internet,
computer, tablet) and not having at
least one asset related to mobility
(bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal
cart, motorboat) and at least one
asset related to livelihood
(refrigerator, arable land, livestock.
AC, heater)
Page 13 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
PILOT EXERCISE
Poverty rate in selected Arab countries –
by Arab MPI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jordon Iraq Morocco
MPI_1 1.64 10.03 10.59
MPI_2 3.75 18.15 16.77
MPI_3 17.45 29.38 20.73
Page 14 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
3. Towards evidence based social
policy
Page 15 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
The Measurement challenge
Most Arab countries conduct household surveys that provide data for
money-metric poverty measures, but comparability between
countries is impossible because of:
• Irregular surveys
• Mismatch between survey periods
• Mismatching definitions/concepts
• Different sample size and population representativeness
methods
Further, there are various surveys that provide non-income based
welfare indicators (MICS, DHS, PAPFAM). Comparability among
them is a challenge, and in addition, there is no particular survey that
combines critical indicators of money-metric and multi-dimensional
aspects.
Page 16 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
How to improve poverty and inequality
measurement for inclusive social policy?
• Standardize survey concepts and definitions
to allow comparability between countries and
between time period within same country
• Standardize data collection methods
• Standardize indicators calculations methods
• Synchronize the survey dates
A PAN-ARAB Multi-purpose
Survey is Ideal
Page 17 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
A PAN-ARAB Multi-purpose Survey Modules
1. Household questionnaire: It contains several modules.
•A. Household demographic characteristics
•B. Dwelling, Amenities & Assets
•C: Food security
•D: Household Physical Safety and Violence
•E: Food and non food expenditure
•F: Annual household income.
2. Children’s questionnaire (0-5 years of age):
•Child health, nutrition and mortality indicators
3. Woman’s questionnaire (15-64 years of age):
•Maternal health, mortality, employment/unemployment, social security indicators
4. Man’s questionnaire (15-64 years of age):
Literacy, employment/unemployment, social security indicators.
Adapted from that of the global questionnaire of the Oxford Poverty and Human
Development Initiative (OPHI) and Multi-dimensional Poverty Peer Network
(MPPN) and expanded as well as adjusted for the Arab region
Page 18 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
ARAB POVERTY REPORT 2016
Objective: To critically assess multi-dimensional
deprivations of families and individuals, including
children, at regional, national and sub-national levels
and improve capacity of Arab countries to monitor
and address multi-dimensional poverty and inequality
with the help of necessary policy and planning tools
embedded in a broader analytical perspective.
Page 19 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission
Thank you for your
attention

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Poverty and inequality in the Arab Region (ESCWA)

  • 1. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western AsiaUnited Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia KHALID ABU-ISMAIL NIRANJAN SARANGI ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBALIZATION DIVISION OCTOBER 2014 Poverty and inequality in the Arab Region
  • 2. Page 2 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission 1. Knowledge gap 1. Political economy and social justice narrative: traditional social contract is essentially based on reducing inequalities. 2. Despite its importance, very little attention to measurement and in countries where there is regular measurement (GCC), data access is forbidden. 3. Even where data is made available, its hard to tell a story and results don’t make sense.
  • 3. Page 3 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission 1. Inequality in expenditure
  • 4. Page 4 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission Conventional wisdom: Low and stagnant inequality A B 30.9 41.0 38.1 34.3 32.9 39.5 34.0 34.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Mashreq Maghreb LDC Arab region 1990s 2000s 34.3 38.1 35.8 51.8 32.4 44.7 38.2 34.7 35.9 36.1 54.9 30.8 45.5 37.2 0.0 10.020.030.040.050.060.0 Arab region East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Developing Region 1990 2010 Gini index across Arab sub-regions (A), and across regions globally (B), 1990s and 2000s Source: ESCWA estimates based on The World Bank 2012a.
  • 5. Page 5 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission Not everybody shared the benefits of growth Ratio between per capita expenditure from national household final expenditure and survey based household expenditure per capita 0.74 1.14 1.96 2.62 1.00 1.14 1.16 1.39 1.82 2.22 1.42 1.45 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 1998 2006 2000 2011 1997 2007 2002 2010 2000 2010 2005 2010 Yemen Egypt Syria Jordan Oman Tunisia Source: ESCWA calculations based on data are from Household Budget Surveys of respective countries; World Bank 2014 for data on national household final consumption expenditure.
  • 6. Page 6 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission The rich versus the rest: a story of rising inequality Source: ESCWA calculations based on data are from Household Budget Surveys of respective countries; World Bank 2014 for data on national household final consumption expenditure. Ratio between per capita expenditure from national household final expenditure (pfce) and survey based household expenditure per capita (pce) 3.4 7.4 13.7 16.2 7.1 7.7 8.9 9.6 10.1 11.0 14.9 14.3 2.1 4.5 9.2 11.3 4.6 5.0 5.8 6.1 6.1 7.3 9.0 8.0 1.5 3.0 5.7 7.4 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.4 4.3 4.7 4.3 3.8 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.4 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 1998 2006 2000 2011 1997 2007 2002 2010 2000 2010 2005 2010 Yemen Egypt Syria Jordan Oman TunisiaRich pfce/ Poor pce Rich pfce/ vulnerable pce Rich pfce/ Middle class pce Rich pfce /Affluent pce
  • 7. Page 7 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.2 0.6 1 1.25 1.6 2 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 6 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.6 8 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 10 P0 (%) World East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Arab Countries Poverty measurement is particularly important for Arab countries
  • 8. Page 8 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission 2. Measuring inequality in capabilities
  • 9. Page 9 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission 73.9 29.3 6.0 14.2 2.4 61.7 10.6 81.2 1.4 5.5 2.8 0.6 52.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Mauritania Morocco Somalia StateofPalestine Syria Tunisia UnitedArab Emirates Yemen Global MPI shows negligible poverty rates for most Arab countries
  • 10. Page 10 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission Tailoring the MPI – revision of deprivation thresholds of indicators Dimension Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Education Years of schooling Deprived if no adult household member has completed 5 years of schooling Deprived if no adult household member has completed 8 years of schooling Deprived if no adult household member has completed 12 years of schooling School attendance Deprived if any school age (7 to 15) child is not attending school in grades 1 to 8 of school Deprived if any child age (7 to 17) is not attending school Deprived if any child age (7 to 17) is not attending school or If any child 7 to 17 years is two years or more behind in the right school grade
  • 11. Page 11 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission Tailoring the MPI – revision of deprivation thresholds of indicators Dimension Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Health Infant and child mortality Deprived if any child (under age 5) has died in the family within 5 years prior to survey Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1 Nutrition Deprived if any adult or child for whom there is nutritional information is child’s height-for-age is below minus two standard deviations from the international median, adult BMI less than 18.5) Deprived if any adult or child for whom there is nutritional information is child’s height-for-age is or weight for age below minus two standard deviations from the international median, adult BMI less than 18.5) Deprived if first or second level of deprivation or Weight for height above 2 SD of the median for children or adult BMI is 30 or above Immunization - Deprived if any child 12 months or more not fully immunized against BCG, DPT, polio and measles If any child 12-23 months not fully immunized or If any child 24-59 months not fully immunized and did not take MMR and Hepatitis B Female health Age of first pregnancy less than 18 years Age of first pregnancy less than 18 years
  • 12. Page 12 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission Tailoring the MPI – revision of deprivation thresholds of indicators Dimension Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Housing and Assets Electricity (MPI) Deprived if no electricity Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1 Drinking water (MPI) Deprived if HH does not have access to clean water or more than 30 minutes’ walk Deprived if HH does not have well or public tap Deprived if HH does not have piped water to house Sanitation (MPI) Deprived if household toilet is shared with others who are not members of their household or used unimproved toilet Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1 Flooring (MPI) Deprived if natural flooring (earth, sand, dung) Deprived if earth or “rudimentary flooring” (wood planks/bamboo) Deprived if earth or “rudimentary flooring” or “cement floor/asphalt” Cooking fuel (MPI) Deprived if the household cooks with wood, charcoal or dung and does not have a designated space for cooking Similar to level 1 Similar to level 1 Assets ownership (MPI) Not having at least one asset related to access to information (radio, TV, telephone, internet, computer, tablet) and not having at least one asset related to mobility (bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat) and at least one asset related to livelihood (refrigerator, arable land, livestock. AC, heater) Not having at least one asset related to access to information (radio, TV, telephone, internet, computer, tablet) and not having at least one asset related to mobility (bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat) and at least one asset related to livelihood (refrigerator, arable land, livestock. AC, heater) Not having at least one asset related to access to information (radio, TV, telephone, internet, computer, tablet) and not having at least one asset related to mobility (bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat) and at least one asset related to livelihood (refrigerator, arable land, livestock. AC, heater)
  • 13. Page 13 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission PILOT EXERCISE Poverty rate in selected Arab countries – by Arab MPI 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jordon Iraq Morocco MPI_1 1.64 10.03 10.59 MPI_2 3.75 18.15 16.77 MPI_3 17.45 29.38 20.73
  • 14. Page 14 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission 3. Towards evidence based social policy
  • 15. Page 15 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission The Measurement challenge Most Arab countries conduct household surveys that provide data for money-metric poverty measures, but comparability between countries is impossible because of: • Irregular surveys • Mismatch between survey periods • Mismatching definitions/concepts • Different sample size and population representativeness methods Further, there are various surveys that provide non-income based welfare indicators (MICS, DHS, PAPFAM). Comparability among them is a challenge, and in addition, there is no particular survey that combines critical indicators of money-metric and multi-dimensional aspects.
  • 16. Page 16 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission How to improve poverty and inequality measurement for inclusive social policy? • Standardize survey concepts and definitions to allow comparability between countries and between time period within same country • Standardize data collection methods • Standardize indicators calculations methods • Synchronize the survey dates A PAN-ARAB Multi-purpose Survey is Ideal
  • 17. Page 17 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission A PAN-ARAB Multi-purpose Survey Modules 1. Household questionnaire: It contains several modules. •A. Household demographic characteristics •B. Dwelling, Amenities & Assets •C: Food security •D: Household Physical Safety and Violence •E: Food and non food expenditure •F: Annual household income. 2. Children’s questionnaire (0-5 years of age): •Child health, nutrition and mortality indicators 3. Woman’s questionnaire (15-64 years of age): •Maternal health, mortality, employment/unemployment, social security indicators 4. Man’s questionnaire (15-64 years of age): Literacy, employment/unemployment, social security indicators. Adapted from that of the global questionnaire of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and Multi-dimensional Poverty Peer Network (MPPN) and expanded as well as adjusted for the Arab region
  • 18. Page 18 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission ARAB POVERTY REPORT 2016 Objective: To critically assess multi-dimensional deprivations of families and individuals, including children, at regional, national and sub-national levels and improve capacity of Arab countries to monitor and address multi-dimensional poverty and inequality with the help of necessary policy and planning tools embedded in a broader analytical perspective.
  • 19. Page 19 © Copyright 2014 ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without a written permission Thank you for your attention