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Unédic Investor Presentation


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Unédic is the public related entity in charge of managing the compulsory French unemployment insurance system: Strategic role within the French Welfare system, the law has mandated the main trade unions and employers’ organizations (social partners) to manage the compulsory unemployment insurance system, the system is managed by Unédic, established in 1958 by the social partners as a non-profit organization

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Unédic Investor Presentation

  1. 1. Investor Presentation - February 2017 1 February 2017 FRENCH UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE INVESTOR PRESENTATION
  2. 2. Investor Presentation - February 2017 2 TABLE OF CONTENT Compensation by unemployment insurance Management of the insurance entrusted to the social partners Two public operators are in charge of collection and payment of benefits Continuity and sustainability of the scheme are guaranteed
  3. 3. Investor Presentation - February 2017 3 COMPENSATION BY UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
  4. 4. Investor Presentation - February 2017 4 COMPENSATION BY UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE FOR 2015 *at 12/31/2015
  7. 7. Investor Presentation - February 2017 7 CONTINUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY OF THE SCHEME ARE GUARANTEED Collective negotiation every 2 to 3 years to ensure financial balance “over the cycle” – A legal obligation for a balanced budget (Labour Code Art. L 5422-12) – Definition of the mechanisms for a 2 to 3 years term, depending upon the financial situation of the unemployment insurance, the job market and unemployment figures – Adjustable variables in order to reach equilibrium: • Contribution rate • Compensation rights • Amount and duration of benefits – Specific measures: The last collective negotiation of May 2014 witnessed the decision to implement and provide more incentives for unemployed workers to reintegrate the labour market. The new set of measures are expected to generate savings worth €3bn over 5 years between 2014 and 2018. A scheme with a tacit guarantee from the French government – Compulsory nature of the unemployment insurance (Labour Code Art. L 5422-13) – Ministerial approval of the insurance agreements (Labour Code Art. L 5422-21) – Unédic is substituted by the government take-over should the social partners and employers’ organisations fail and reach an agreement or obtain its governmental approval Bonds issuance supported by an explicit State guarantee, renewed since 2011 • Amending Finance Law of 30 December 2016 (article 36): authorisation to provide guarantee • Ministerial Order granting the guarantee (processing…)
  8. 8. Investor Presentation - February 2017 88 Unédic Research and financial forecast Contributions steady increase Balance and net banking indebtedness of unemployment insurance scheme Financial Forecast
  9. 9. Investor Presentation - February 2017 9 UNÉDIC RESEARCH AND FINANCIAL FORECAST Projections updated three times a year – Based on macro-economic fundamentals from the Consensus of Economists: • Forecast in change of GDP rate • CPI – Monitoring of the working population, wage rate change, unemployment benefits paid, etc. A steering tool for social partners – Forecasts reviewed by unemployment insurance managers. – A reference for the social partners negotiating the agreements: Unédic has an obligation to conduct a 3 year forecast and analysis of cyclical effects on its finances – Finance Law for 2014-2019 Art. 29: “Unédic reports every year to the Parliament and the Government, before the 30 June at the latest, its three year financial forecast, detailing in particular the cyclical effects of salaried employment evolution on the financial balance of the unemployment insurance scheme”
  10. 10. Investor Presentation - February 2017 10 CONTRIBUTIONS STEADY INCREASE Unemployment insurance contributions are tied to the economic situation, but less so than the expenditures Sources: Unédic, INSEE, Consensus Forecasts August 2016, Unédic Calculations
  11. 11. Investor Presentation - February 2017 11 UNÉDIC RESEARCH AND FINANCIAL FORECAST Change in cash balance of unemployment insurance Source : Unédic, Unédic calculations September 2016
  12. 12. Investor Presentation - February 2017 1212 Unédic cyclical and structural debt research Expenditures closely tied to the economic situation A “leverage effect” upon the balance of unemployment insurance scheme Output gap and position in the economic cycle Unédic structural balance since 1990 Cyclical and structural debt
  13. 13. Investor Presentation - February 2017 13 UNÉDIC CYCLICAL AND STRUCTURAL DEBT RESEARCH Unédic research and analysis on the cyclical and structural balance of its debt – Unédic has to keep a balanced budget over the economic cycle – The social partners have made the choice to prioritize their mission and the social nature of unemployment insurance which is to serve a replacement revenue to eligible jobseekers and help them return to employment – 2014 Finance Law prompted Unédic to conduct further analysis on its debt and the identification of its structural and cyclical components – Unédic uses the methodology used by international organizations (IMF, OECD…) to measure the cyclical component of its year-end result based on the analysis of the “output gap” estimating the present position in the economic cycle
  14. 14. Investor Presentation - February 2017 14 EXPENDITURES CLOSELY TIED TO THE ECONOMIC SITUATION Contributions and expenditures relative to GDP Source : Unédic, Unédic calculations September 2016
  15. 15. Investor Presentation - February 2017 15 A “LEVERAGE EFFECT” UPON THE BALANCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE With the current parameters of unemployment insurance (contribution rate and compensation rate), the contributions of roughly 9 affiliated employees are necessary to compensate 1 jobseeker 1 employee losing his job has a compounded negative effect upon the finances of unemployment insurance: - 1 contributor + 9 contributions consumed 1 jobseeker finding a job has an enhanced positive effect upon unemployment insurance finances: + 1 contributor + 9 contributions available There usually is a delay of 6 months to a year before this levered effect can be noticed
  16. 16. Investor Presentation - February 2017 16 POSITION IN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE AND CYCLICAL BALANCE Output gap Sources : European commission Since 2009, the cyclical balance of Unédic has been continuously negative due to prolonged negative output gap over the period.
  17. 17. Investor Presentation - February 2017 17 UNÉDIC STRUCTURAL BALANCE SINCE 1990 Sources : Unédic, Unédic calculations September 2016 Between 2010 and 2015, the structural balance of Unédic was negative and represents up to -1,4bn Euros on average each year.
  18. 18. Investor Presentation - February 2017 1818 Investment-grade rating reflects Unédic rigorous management Funding Programme for 2017 Unedic NEU MTN programme Unédic signature strengthened internationally Bond issues welcomed by institutional investors Unédic funding programme at a glance Unédic rating FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
  19. 19. Investor Presentation - February 2017 19 INVESTMENT-GRADE RATING REFLECTS UNÉDIC RIGOROUS MANAGEMENT Capital market financing – EMTN Programme (€ 37 billion) – Explicit guarantee – Neu MTN (ex BMTN) Programme (€ 8 billion) – Implicit guarantee – French Commercial Paper Programme (€ 10 billion) Active management of the French CP Programme – Setting of a duration target and active maturity management – Setup of a liquidity buffer Risk management – No foreign exchange risk – Interest rate risk managed through issuance along the yield curve of the rates representing the economic outlook for Unédic
  20. 20. Investor Presentation - February 2017 20 FUNDING PROGRAMME FOR 2017 Commercial paper – Duration target of 3 months minimum and active maturity management NEU MTN (ex-BMTN) – Fixed rate, in Euros, maturity up to 7 years – No explicit guarantee – ECB-eligible (Tier-1) – 0% risk weight EMTN programme of €5bn for 2017 – Fixed rate, in Euros, maturity up to 15 years – First demand guarantee from the French State – ECB-eligible (Tier-1) – 0% risk weight
  21. 21. Investor Presentation - February 2017 21 UNEDIC AIMING FOR LONGER AVERAGE MATURITY ON OUTSTANDING DEBT STRUCTURE  Unedic objective is to structure its debt by the economic cycle and extend the average maturity of its outstanding debt • 4 months average maturity for the outstanding Commercial Papers • 2 years 9 months average maturity for the outstanding NEU MTN • 5 years 10 months average maturity for the outstanding EMTN • 5 years average maturity for the overall outstanding debt of Unédic • The maximum maturity for new EMTN and NEU MTN issuance is 15 years and 7 years respectively Source : Unédic 31/12/2016
  22. 22. Investor Presentation - February 2017 22 UNÉDIC EMTN PROGRAMME
  23. 23. Investor Presentation - February 2017 23 UNEDIC NEU MTN PROGRAMME (EX BMTN)
  24. 24. Investor Presentation - February 2017 24 UNEDIC’S 3 FUNDING PROGRAMMES AT A GLANCE
  25. 25. Investor Presentation - February 2017 25 UNÉDIC IS RATED AA2 BY MOODY’S AND AA BY FITCH RATINGS
  26. 26. Investor Presentation - February 2017 26 FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT UNEDIC INVESTORS WEBSITE
  27. 27. Investor Presentation - February 2017 27 DISCLAIMER This document is a draft for discussion purposes only, it is highly confidential and proprietary and should not be transmitted to any person other than its original addressee(s) without the prior written consent of Unédic. Prices and margin are meant to be indicative only and are subject to change at any time depending on market conditions. Unédic cannot be held responsible for any financial loss or other consequences of the implementation of the transactions described in this document. The French Autorité des Marchés Financiers granted its visa under number 16-058 dated 24 February 2016 with respect to a base prospectus (hereinafter referred to as the “Base Prospectus”) which details this operation. The Base Prospectus is available at no cost at Unédic registered office, 4, rue de Traversière, 75012 Paris, France and on its website You are invited to report to the section “risks” of the Base Prospectus before taking a decision with respect to the implementation of the transactions described in this document or in the Base Prospectus. Should you so require, you should contact your financial, legal or tax advisor, or any other specialist, in order to confirm that any decision taken is consistent with your personal financial situation.