Great Game in Central Asia


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Great Game in Central Asia

  2. 2. Introduction Reviewing events in the international area we can see that the interest to the Central Asia region is growing in view of its changing geopolitical role. Russia, USA and China, as powerful powers of the present-day world that have influence in the region, are also interested in the CA.
  3. 3. Central Asia
  4. 4. Interest to CA countries 1991 – collapse of the Soviet Union and appearing of new subjects of international relations Before the beginning of the XIX century these countries with forming policies were on the periphery of world policy and economy New challenges created conditions for major powers to influence on CA countries Interest of major powers in gaining access and control of energy resources of CA countries Interest of major powers in raw material resources base of CA
  5. 5. The structure of proportions of territoryand population is the following Population Central Asia Territory World Central Asia World
  6. 6. CA is well provided with energy resources Countries Oil Gas (trillion Coal Gold Uranium (t) Water resource (mln. t) cu m) (billion t) (т) (billion kWh) Kazakhstan 4 000 3 300 35,8 18,9 1 690 000 40,2 Turkmenistan 300 24 000 - - - - Uzbekistan 250 1 875 4 90 185 800 - Kyrgyzstan 5 6 - 24 20 000 142,5 Tajikistan 2 - - - 460 000 527World’s place 11 2 8 9 1 6-8 The region is also takes leading positions in ferrous, nonferrous and rare metals reservoirs. It holds positions from 1 to 20 in metal mining in more than 30 kinds
  7. 7. Historical background and stages of development of CA region Before accession to the Russian Empire state entities of CA based on territorial and confessional communities. The region represented a lot of local districts that had nothing to do with political and ethical territories of modern states The region became a part of the “Great Game”, with the result that it got under protectorate of the Russian Empire and then entered the USSR Development of independent states on the territory of CA. As for current situation of five CA countries, we can say that they are all still on the stage of forming statehood
  8. 8. Historical background and stages of development…cont Meanwhile we can show evolution of foreign policy activities of CA countries  1-st stage (1991-1994) – tendency of CA countries to preserve close relations with Russia, while Russian government adhered to conception of “Russia is a part of the West”  2 stage (1994-1999) – CA countries tried to construct its own regional structures with politic, moral and financial assistance of the West  3 stage (1999-200) – the period of disappointment of CA countries with regional structures under CIS and drawing up relations on bilateral basis  4 stage (2001-2005) begun after 9/11, with the main characteristics of military presence of the West (primarily USA) in the region  5 stage (2005 till now) characterizes as “economization” of foreign policy relations, region states’ ambitions to improve socioeconomic situation and strengthen political stability. “Multiple vector foreign policy” is used.
  9. 9. Rivalry and actors Major powers – Russia, USA, China Power balance asymmetry  Russia has traditional ties with region countries  USA are territorially far from the region  China has economic power and neighbourship to the region
  10. 10. Russian Federation and its policy in the region Preserving existing “status quo” Development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with partners Strategy of saving predictable political regimes in CA countries Gaining maximal economic benefit Maintenance close and friendly relations individual reservation of CA resource potential
  11. 11. Contradictions with USA For Russia American military presence in the region is unacceptable Russia’s interest in political stabilization in Afghanistan and prevention of Taliban’s return
  12. 12. Contradictions with China Russian unhappy with China’s growing economic activity in the region There is a possibility for CA countries to be economic dependent from China and be under Chinese influence
  13. 13. Russian Federation and its policy in the region…cont These circumstances force Russia to be more active in the region and protect above-mentioned interests
  14. 14. USA and its policy in the region Ebbing of Russian influence on region countries Maintenance of democracy and observance of human rights Diversification of energy flow to bypass Russia Extending cooperation with CA countries to support International Security Assistance Force efforts in Afghanistan Prevention of expanding Iran’s influence in the region
  15. 15. USA and its policy in the region…cont Since 1995 and appearance of Taliban’s regime the USA tried to expand military cooperation with region countries 1999 – including CA countries into CENTCOM After 9/11 the USA bought military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan Military bases in CA became a point of dispute between SCO and USA
  16. 16. USA and its policy in the region…cont China declare on this subject: “the wolf dropped into back yard… USA purpose is to use Afghan war to prevail in the region” According to some experts rivalry between politico military powers (Russia and USA) for geopolitical influence in Kyrgyzstan might cause occasions in this country in 2005 and 2010
  17. 17. China and its policy in the region Main directions:  1-st stage (1992 – 2000)  Borders issue  Consider CA countries as market for Chinese goods  Gaining access to region’s energy resources  2-nd stage (2001 – till now)  China increased investment volume into CA countries, especially energy sector  Over the last 10 years sales volume increased 13 times
  18. 18. China and its policy in the region…cont China provides credits to CA countries, which allows to politically dominate and restrict influence of other countries in the region Beijing develops transport infrastructure to provide supply energy sources from the region
  19. 19. Conclusion Since 2001 China prevails in rivalries between major powers in CA region, that strengthen relations with region countries on a long term basis In the near term rivalries between Russia, USA and China will increase not only in the CA region but also around the world
  20. 20. Recommendations Increasing of rivalry among major powers in Central Asia can break security and slow down its sustainable development in the region Main players should recognize mutual interests and come to an agreement for region countries’ prosperity
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