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Глобальне ядерне виробництво та програма "Гармонія"

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Презентація старшого радника World Nuclear Association Філіпа Косте в рамках Міжнародної конференції з нагоди 10-річчя АУЯФ "Український ядерний форум 2019: ядерна енергетика - стан та тенденції розвитку"

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Глобальне ядерне виробництво та програма "Гармонія"

  1. 1. Global nuclear performance and Harmony vision Philippe Costes Senior Advisor Ukrainian Nuclear Forum 2019
  2. 2. Global generation: 2018 biggest increase in 15 years 2
  3. 3. Global capacity and performance
  4. 4. New construction and new countries Akkuyu 1 (Turkey) Hinkley Point C 1 (UK) Kursk 2-1 (Russia) Rooppur 2 (Bangladesh) Shin-Kori 6 (Korea Republic) 56.3 GWe nuclear construction worldwide 10.9 GWe construction in 4 new-comer countries 6.3 GWe construction started in 2018
  5. 5. Nuclear capacity connected to the grid Advanced and developing economies
  6. 6. Scheduled new build 2019-2021 MWe 2019 Belarus Ostrovets 1 1194 2019 China, Fangchenggang 3 1180 2019 China, Hongyanhe 5 1119 2019 China, Yangjiang 6 1086 2019 China, Fuqing 5 1150 2019 China, Huaneng 210 2019 China, Taishan 2 1750 2019 Finland, Olkiluoto 3 1720 2019 France, Flamanville 3 1650 2019 Korea, Shin Kori 4 1400 2019 Korea, Shin Hanul 1 1400 2019 Russia, Pevek FNPP 70 2019 Russia, Novovoronezh II-2 1200 2019 Slovakia, SE Mochovce 3 471 MWe 2020 Belarus, Ostrovets 2 1194 2020 China, Hongyanhe 6 1119 2020 China, Fangchenggang 4 1180 2020 China, Tianwan 5 1118 2020 China, Fuqing 6 1150 2020 China, Bohai shipyard 60 2020 India, Kalpakkam PFBR 500 2020 Japan, Shimane 3 1373 2020 Korea, Shin Hanul 2 1400 2020 Slovakia, Mochovce 4 471 2020 UAE, Barakah 1 1400 2020 UAE, Barakah 2 1400 2021 Argentina, Carem25 29 2021 China, Tianwan 6 1118 2021 Pakistan, KANUPP 2 1100 2021 USA, Vogtle 3 1250 2021 UAE, Barakah 3 1400 2021 UAE, Barakah 4 1400
  7. 7. Chinese new build recommences in 2019 EIA for three large reactors ACP100 SMR construction by end year
  8. 8. Capacity factor trends: Improving performance of operating reactors 8
  9. 9. Reactors perform well over entire lifetime: Mean capacity factor by age (2012-2017) 9
  10. 10. Reactors reaching 50 years of operation this year Beznau 1, Switzerland 10 Ginna, USA Nine Mile Point 1, USA Tarapur 1, India Tarapur 2, India
  11. 11. The world has a growing demand for clean energy 7 million people die each year due to air pollution Almost 1 billion people live without electricity
  12. 12. More serious and urgent action is required on climate BillionsoftonnesCO2equivalent Business as usual Where current climate commitments take us Where we need to be Adapted from Emissions Gap Report 2018, UN Environment
  13. 13. More serious and urgent action is required on climate BillionsoftonnesCO2equivalent Business as usual Where current climate commitments take us Where we need to be Adapted from Emissions Gap Report 2018, UN Environment
  14. 14. More serious and urgent action is required on climate BillionsoftonnesCO2equivalent Business as usual Where current climate commitments take us Where we need to be Adapted from Emissions Gap Report 2018, UN Environment
  15. 15. IPCC identifies pathways to emissions reduction to limit climate change to 1.5oC 15 In IPPC’s own P3 middle-of-the-road scenario nuclear increases more than five times from current level.
  16. 16. Harmony: a goal for the nuclear community At least 1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by 2050 To meet the growing demand for a clean and reliable low-carbon mix. 25% of electricity supply before 2050
  17. 17. Harmony Programme The Harmony programme provides a framework for action, helping industry reach out to key stakeholders so that barriers to growth can be removed.
  18. 18. There is no sustainable energy future in the absence of nuclear energy. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency “ ”
  19. 19. Level playing field OECD/NEA report that high shares of renewables have significant system costs 19
  20. 20. Harmonized Regulatory Processes “ ” …causes many drawbacks for the entire nuclear industry, including developers, vendors, operators and even regulators themselves This results in increased costs and reduced predictability in project execution
  21. 21. Effective Safety Paradigm
  22. 22. Harmony build rates 2016-2050 Construction rate doubled from trend of 5GW/y or less to 10GW/y Then we need to triple from today’s level
  23. 23. Nuclear innovations for further decarbonization SMRs and floating nuclear power plants for local or remote communities High temperature gas reactors for industrial heat Clean electricity or H2 to decarbonize transport Fast reactors and fusion for extended fuel utilization
  24. 24. Further Information: The Harmony Programme www.world-nuclear.org/harmony World Nuclear Association Information Library www.world-nuclear.org/information-library.aspx World Nuclear Association Reactor Database www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/reactor- database.aspx World Nuclear News www.world-nuclear-news.org Thank You - дякую вам

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